Breakdown of the findings of the first open poll of the Republican primary race in Southwest Florida.
June 2, 2020 by David Silverberg.
Updated at 3:45 pm with additional data
A poll by an independent polling firm, Political Prowess Polling, has Republican congressional candidate Casey Askar polling equally with former actor Darren Aquino in the 19th Congressional District Republican primary race.
However, the real prize that will determine the winner of the Aug. 18 Republican primary will be winning over the 27 percent of undecided voters it found.
Key findings, according to the poll’s executive summary:
Undecideds are leading the way.
Recent events have skyrocketed Aquino & Askar.
Some analysts are predicting [State Rep. Dane] Eagle [R-77-Cape Coral] to rise to the top of the polls.
Under 30% of voters chose any of the four sitting politicians in the race.
Indecisive voters could make the difference for Darren Aquino or Casey Askar.
The poll was first reported in part today by The Paradise Progressive in the article “SWFL State of Play Today.” Subsequent to the posting of that report, Aaron Montgomery, the firm’s strategic polling coordinator, contacted The Paradise Progressive with new details.
The poll was conducted by robocall on May 27 and 28 among 800 registered Republicans likely to vote in the primary. It has a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
It was not conducted on behalf of any candidate but rather was part of the firm’s 2020 Republican Primary Research Set, an independent series of studies on Republican primaries across the country, according to Montgomery.
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©2020 by David Silverberg