Hurricane Devitt: Storm, stress and mystery in Southwest Florida

*Meteorologist Matt Devitt and family. (Photo: Facebook)*

On Saturday, Jan. 10, Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist at WINK TV in Fort Myers, Fla., published a Facebook post that unleashed a hurricane as strong as any he covered in his ten years at the station.

“LIFE UPDATE: After 10 years, my time with WINK News has come to an end after being let go from my role as Chief Meteorologist on Thursday. This decision was not one that I expected or agreed with and was not given the opportunity to say goodbye on-air. It was a complete shock to me, my family and fellow coworkers.”

Since that announcement it’s fair to say that Southwest Florida has erupted in speculation, accusations and equally complete shock.

An outside observer might be puzzled by all this. But that observer needs to realize that in Southwest Florida, broadcast weather forecasters play a special role. They’re not just on-air presenters: amidst the drama and stress of hurricanes they’re foxhole buddies who know incoming from outgoing rounds and can tell you when to duck; they’re pillars of calm despite fearsome storms and howling winds; they’re guides who lead the way to safety and sunlight. Local people who come through a hurricane feel as though they shared the danger with the meteorologists who were continuously on television throughout the ordeal.

They’re not just talent, they’re weather gods.

Matt Devitt was an outstanding example of the breed.

Southwest Floridians are flooding social media with posts and opinions about the dismissal. The story has gone far beyond the confines of the local viewing area and is being covered by such national and international news outlets as Newsweek, The Hindustan Times in India and The Daily Mailin Britain.

It has also taken on a political dimension, shaking the race for Congress in the 19th Congressional District, the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island.

The story continues to develop and breaking news could come at any time.

However, while things may change, this article is intended to provide background and context, to analyze the nature and intensity of the controversy, and to explain to the world why this event is is a cyclone in what is usually a very hot and sleepy corner of America.

What we know

There are only two authoritative sources of information on this story: Matt Devitt and the person who fired him; or in terms of facing the public, WINK TV. Neither are talking. (The Paradise Progressive reached out to both without result.)

Since Devitt was the one who broke the story, here is the rest of the post he put on Facebook:

“Serving our Southwest Florida community for the past decade has been an honor and privilege, especially through Hurricanes Irma, Ian, Helene and Milton. I always gave you everything I had with one goal in mind: keeping you safe and informed without the hype.

“While this chapter ended differently than I hoped, I wish WINK News, along with my previous coworkers and weather team, the best.

“I will still be providing weather updates on this page, it just won’t be on TV anymore. My new Facebook name is being changed to Matt Devitt Weather, which you’ll see shortly. In addition to sending Facebook messages, you are always welcome to email me at MattDevittWX@gmail.com.

“I’m taking a brief pause professionally to reset and be with my family. I’ve missed them and I’m looking forward to every minute. I’ll keep you all updated on what’s next.

“Thank you to everyone who has reached out with support, it has meant more to me than you know.”

There has been no official statement from WINK. Indeed, an internal memo was circulated warning WINK personnel not to discuss or comment on the matter in any form or forum, on any platform, on the telephone or in any way whatsoever. There has not been any broadcast comment from the station.

The one comment that came out was from WINK meteorologist Lauren Kreidler, who also posted on Facebook: “Please give my weather team & I grace as we navigate this change ourselves… I did not have any involvement in this decision.”

The players

*Matt Devitt in 2021. (Photo: Facebook)*

Matt Devitt is a Florida native. A long time weather watcher, in 2004 he was a student intern at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for four months, according to his LinkedIn biography. He attended Pennsylvania State University starting in 2006, interning at WFLA-TV in Tampa in 2008.

The following year he worked as a researcher at the National Science Foundation where he was part of a project titled “Evaluation of Community Emergency Response Teams in Hillsborough County, Florida: A Pilot Study.”

“The centerpiece of the program was an intensive, interdisciplinary research experience where I actively engaged in a faculty-mentored research project focused on hurricane hazards and social vulnerabilities of individuals and communities,” he wrote on his page. “As a capstone experience, I showcased my research project at a university-community symposium held at the end of the nine-week session.

After graduation in 2010 Devitt worked for 10 months as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV in Denison, Texas, moved to KHBS-TV in Rogers, Ark., for a year and then was at WSAV-TV in Savannah, Ga., for nearly four years.

He came to WINK in February 2016, initially as morning meteorologist and then moving up to Chief Meteorologist in March 2021.

WINK TV, the station where Devitt was employed, is the oldest television station in Southwest Florida and the fifth oldest in the state. (Figures on its audience and reach are not publicly available.)

The station was founded by Arthur “Mickey” McBride, a tycoon who started the Cleveland Browns football team. McBride was born in Chicago but made his fortune in Cleveland where he worked his way up from a job as circulation manager for the Cleveland News, organizing the newspaper’s newsboys in their often-violent battles for territory. He branched out into real estate and taxicab companies.

In 1946 McBride bought Fort Myers’ first radio station, WINK, and then expanded it into television. It began broadcasting on March 18, 1954.

Today the station is still owned by the McBride family through their Fort Myers Broadcasting Company. It has a shared services agreement with other broadcasters like Sun Broadcasting, a Univision channel and others.

WINK TV had to evacuate its studio in September 2022 when it was flooded during Hurricane Ian. It began broadcasting from a shared broadcast center in north Fort Myers.

In March 2024 the station elevated Jamie Ricks to general manager. He started as a local sales manager at WINK in 2007 and rose to director of sales in 2024 before becoming general manager.

There have been big and sometimes jarring changes at WINK in the last two years. From a physical standpoint, it moved its news operations into a brand new and revamped studio at a new location in the community of Gateway, in central Lee County, about ten miles east of its previous Broadcast Center. The change was announced on Tuesday, Jan. 13.

Stormy bonds

The weather itself plays a role in this drama.

For those unfamiliar with it, Southwest Florida is officially a near-tropical climate (Zone 10B in the Department of Agriculture Plant Hardiness scale). It has two seasons: wet and dry.

The dry season runs roughly from November to April. The weather is relatively monotonous; there’s little rain, almost constant sunshine and at most some temperature variation as different fronts come through. It often ends with droughts, water restrictions and wildfires.

The wet season runs roughly from April to November. As the summer wears on there are near-daily thunderstorms, sometimes severe.

But what really makes the wet season wet are the tropical storms and hurricanes that usually blow in from the Gulf of Mexico or across the peninsula from the Atlantic. Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.

(Editor’s Note: The latest Trump-appointed director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, David Richardson, said when he took office that he was unaware that there was an official hurricane season.)

Southwest Florida is a climatologically sensitive region and very vulnerable to damage from extreme weather events. It has been repeatedly battered by catastrophic storms, none more so in recent years than 2022’s Hurricane Ian.

As a result, weather, even in the dry season, is a major preoccupation in the region and that’s reflected in its broadcast TV stations. The two major stations, WINK and WBBH (NBC2) and WZVN (ABC7) (the latter two combined as Gulf Coast News by Hearst Television) usually lead off their evening newscasts with weather reports, even in calm times.

As an indication of the importance of weather in the area, in 1994 NBC2 and ABC7 joined together to invest in their own Doppler radar, which was upgraded in 2021. In 2022 WINK countered by upgrading its own radar to Doppler 3X, which, as it never tires of repeating, is three times more powerful and accurate than its competitor.

Both of these were major investments to provide greater accuracy for weather forecasts.

The primacy of weather is also reflected in the robust and extensive meteorological teams of the stations. Both stations employ numerous knowledgeable and very professional meteorologists.

Allyson Rae is the chief meteorologist at Gulf Coast News, as Devitt was at WINK.

Especially when hurricanes threaten or hit the region, the teams go into emergency, around-the-clock mode. The reports are constant and the reporting takes on life and death urgency as viewers watch for evacuation orders and emergency announcements.

Devitt was especially good at this. In 2022 during Hurricane Ian, with the WINK studio flooding, he stood at a laptop on a stand with what looked like a single spotlight on him, calmly providing real time reports of flooding, tidal surge, and especially destructive rotating winds on a street-by-street basis.

(On a personal note: During Ian, this author and his wife watched him report on a rotation nearing our neighborhood, giving street-by-street coordinates as it hovered nearby and we prepared to take shelter. Mercifully, our home was spared.)

That kind of immediate, frightening, life-and-death reporting and forecasting forges a bond between a weather forecaster and the audience that goes well beyond the usual talking heads on television.

In addition to his coolness and competence under pressure, Devitt was otherwise a jovial and often-humorous presence both in his weather reports and his social media postings, which were considerable on a wide array of platforms. He shared insights, unusual weather phenomena and encouraged audience input with photos and alerts.

It all built a friendly, immediate and trusted persona that made him the highest rated weather presenter in the market and boosted WINK ratings.

These are some of the reasons that his firing came as such a shock in Southwest Florida and why the reaction has been so emotional.

Shock, dismay and anger

Reaction to Devitt’s announcement was immediate and overwhelming. Mostly, it expressed itself in social media postings and comments and the dominant moods were dismay and alarm.

It even expressed itself in petitions to reinstate him. One petition on Change.org to “Bring back Matt Devitt to Wink weather,” had 2,956 signatures as of this writing. A second one, “Reinstate Matt Devitt as a weather forecaster” had 107.

The other reaction was powerful curiosity over the cause of the firing, which neither Devitt nor WINK provided. As a result, the event was like a Rorschach blot that anyone could interpret.

One social media commenter guessed that the cause was a January 6 Facebook post from Devitt that pointed out the rising heat in Southwest Florida, accompanied by a chart.

“NEW: Data is in for 2025 and it shows it was the 10th hottest on record for the city of Fort Myers in Southwest Florida. Data goes back to 1902 (123 years). With that said, the past 7 years straight have all been in the Top 10 hottest.

Yes, it can still get occasionally cool or cold at times during hot years. It’s about *average* temperature over 365 days.

There are several contributing factors to the warmth in recent years. One of the most obvious that I’m sure you see all the time is the rapid development of Southwest Florida. If you replace cooler grass and trees with asphalt, concrete and buildings, materials that absorb heat, you’re expanding the urban heat island. As a reminder, I don’t do politics on this page. That’s just the pure physics of the situation. We’ll see what 2026 has in store ahead, I’ll keep you posted.”

*The chart accompanying Matt Devitt’s Jan. 6 Facebook post. (Chart: Facebook)*

Given debates over overdevelopment as well as the controversy over climate change and the state government’s determination to ignore it, there was speculation that Devitt was being punished for even cursorily acknowledging what President Donald Trump has called a “hoax.”

However, a much more detailed and credible theory came from Beach Talk Radio, an online news station and website based in Fort Myers Beach.

Citing what it called “rock-solid sources inside the WINK-TV building,” the station made the following post on Facebook:

“BREAKING:

“Our rock-solid sources inside the WINK-TV building have confirmed that Matt Devitt was fired with 2 months left on his 5-year contract. He was given 3 weeks severance after nearly 10 years of outstanding weather reporting to the Southwest Florida region.

“The reason Matt was fired, from what we are told, was because the new boss did not like that he was taking extra time during his dinner breaks to help his wife with their newborn baby. He even requested to come into work earlier so he could go home earlier and that was denied (his shift was 2:30PM to midnight). The suits expected a one hour dinner break to be no longer than one hour. They called what Matt did insubordination, a violation of his contract, dragged him into the GM’s office and fired him on the spot last Thursday. He has a non-compete agreement for one year.

“Maybe Matt should go back and add up all the extra hours he put in during all of those hurricanes and see what the boss has to say about that.”

Fury and politics

The Beach Talk Radio report sparked fury from one notable Southwest Florida viewer who posted on X: “If this report is true the entire WINK senior management should be fired and matt devitt [sic] reinstated with back pay.”

That was retired US House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who lives in the Quail West development of Naples.

As Devitt stated in his Jan. 6 Facebook posting, “As a reminder, I don’t do politics on this page.” But that didn’t stop the Devitt affair from immediately going political and the place where it erupted was in the crowded District 19 congressional race.

The electoral politicking began with X posts by one of the Republican candidates, Catalina Lauf. Responding to Gingrich’s puzzlement over the firing, she wrote on Jan. 11: “I have the answer, sir! @newtgingrich “My primary opponent, Jim owns WINK. It’s clear in SWFL that he is a RINO hack, possibly a closet DEM. His liberal leadership fired the beloved @MattDevittWX who brought so much hope to SWFL during Hurricane Ian.”

The “Jim” is Jim Schwartzel who owns Sun Broadcasting, which shares facilities with WINK. Schwartzel is also running for the Republican nomination in District 19.

Schwartzel has never claimed any ownership in WINK and he was moved to issue his own denial on X:

“For political reasons, some are circulating the false claims that I own or control WINK News.

“I want to be clear: I do not own WINK TV or WINK News. I am not employed by WINK and I have no role in its parent company, Fort Myers Broadcasting Co.

“I own Sun Broadcasting Inc., which owns and operates 92.5 FOX News radio, 93.7 Trump Country radio, as well as other radio and media properties.

“Any statement to the contrary is either misinformed or a deliberate lie.”

Beach Talk Radio responded to the statement:

“Thank you Jim for pointing out the obvious but everyone in Southwest Florida with a brain knows how the radio station, WINK-TV and The CW are all intertwined. You carry WINK News on the CW for crying out loud. WINK does the weather on YOUR radio station. What you did not deny in your post was that you were in on the firing of Matt. Were you or were you not one of the 3-4 people that knew it was coming down even before Matt did? If you have nothing to do with WINK why would you be in that loop? Post that denial so the local voters know. Or, if you did know, and gave your OK, just be honest with the voters and tell them you OK’d Matt being fired so they know when they vote in the pimary. The people you are asking to vote for you have a right to know. This isn’t about politics. It’s about honesty.”

As of this writing, there had not been a response by Schwartzel.

(For full coverage of the District 19 race, see: “Seaside stampede: Nine Republicans jostle in race for Florida’s District 19 nomination.”)

Analysis: Hurricane Matt

Until Devitt or WINK break their silence, there is no authoritative account of the actual reasons for the firing and everything else is speculation, no matter how seemingly informed. No doubt lawyers on both sides have imposed an absolute cone of silence over all the principals. Readers and viewers should be very skeptical of everything they read and hear.

If indeed the fight was over Devitt taking over an hour for dinner, one can put forward a theory—and this needs to be emphasized, a theory—of the nuts and bolts of the dispute.

Devitt lives in Babcock Ranch and when WINK moved its studio ten miles eastward to Gateway, there was no way Devitt could get home in time for dinner with his family and return to the studio in one hour. If he tried, he’d only be able to ring the doorbell before having to turn around and head back. Given his schedule, he’d never again have a weekday dinner with his family or see his newborn in the evening except on weekends. It’s a dilemma every working parent can recognize.

But outsiders can only speculate. There may have been other issues of pay, contracts, interpersonal relationships, a purge of older employees and all the other myriad irritants and issues that make up life in the workplace today.

What is undeniable is that by doing this without grace or manners or consideration for viewers or any public explanation, WINK management really shot itself in the foot—and possibly somewhere else more painful. Did they really think the firing wouldn’t come to light? That this disappearance wouldn’t be noticed?

In response to the firing, people are turning off the station and deleting its application from their mobile devices and announcing it on social media. For all its promotion of its listening tours, WINK doesn’t seem to be listening when its viewers really have something to say. There is absolutely no doubt that revenue is going to take a big hit, along with ratings.

But at least it’s a near-guarantee that no one at WINK will take more than an hour for dinner. It’s a win if one wants to count it that way.

The political responses seem crude and stupid. Schwartzel doesn’t have ownership of WINK and unless Lauf can document and prove her accusations they should be ignored (and writing as a liberal progressive, he’s no Dem!). And if Beach Talk Radio has the goods—even though its details are impressive—it should get its source (or sources) to go on the record.

There are also likely larger reasons for the angst and anger over Devitt’s firing.

The assault on the media has finally hit home in Southwest Florida with the arbitrary dismissal of a trusted and even loved on-air personality. At the national level CBS, WINK’s network, has seen its news operation eviscerated by its new editor in chief, Barri Weiss, who is clamping a Trumpist hood over its operations and killing its credibility. Even in entertainment, the network will dismiss comedian Stephen Colbert and end The Late Show altogether in May in deference to Donald Trump’s hatred and pettiness.

But more, the general atmosphere of fear and threat and menace, with arbitrary snatches and killings in the streets, raids by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, a concentration camp just down the road in the Everglades and creeping and relentless authoritarianism is like the atmosphere of danger and menace as a hurricane approaches, its winds blowing and its clouds lowering and its mortal danger becoming ever more apparent. People are tightly wound, tense and worried.

Perhaps that’s why when a television personality whom so many Southwest Floridians see as a friend, a guide and a guardian, someone trusted and reliable in the worst storms, is suddenly snatched away, it’s a shuddering shock that goes well beyond just the usual round of on-air personnel changes.

This story is only beginning. If WINK managers thought it would fade away they are much mistaken. It will all depend on the principals, of course, and their decisions. Devitt has to make known what he intends to do. WINK can maintain its silence but it will come at growing costs.

Like any hurricane, it’s not until the winds die down and the waters recede that the real damage will be known. But also like any hurricane, it will take a long time for all to revive and recover—and that’s not something that can be done with a wink.

*Matt Devit reporting during Hurricane Ian, 2022 (Image: YouTube/WINK)*

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

The Year Ahead: Swamp or Sunshine? Florida’s choices

*Floridians face a fork in the road in the year ahead in this artificial intelligence-generated illustration. (Art: AI for TPP/ChatGPT)*

Jan. 5, 2026 by David Silverberg

This year Florida voters will face choices that will determine how they live their lives as well as the direction and destiny of their state—even more so than in “normal” election years.

At the top of the list will be the race for governor.

Then there is election of a senator. The current senator, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), is running in her own right after being appointed in January by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to fill in the unexpired term of Marco Rubio, who was appointed Secretary of State.

The race for Chief Financial Officer will be unusually important and competitive this year as well and the race for Attorney General will see the incumbent, James Uthmeier, creator of the Alligator Alcatraz concentration camp, defending his seat.

On the same ballot will be elections for offices at all levels including members of the House of Representatives but also state, county and municipal offices. Because President Donald Trump will be on the road stumping for his candidates, Floridians should expect some Trump rallies to boost their chances.

In the legislature two major issues will dominate the session that begins Jan. 13, or possibly a special session: whether to redistrict Florida in mid-decade and whether to abolish property taxes.

Beyond these political occurrences, Florida is scheduled to host two major scheduled events this year: Miami will be one of 11 American cities hosting Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup games.

In December, Miami will again be the host city for the G20 summit of the world’s leading economic powers at the Trump National Doral Miami resort and spa.

(For a fuller discussion of these events, see The year ahead: Keeping the light alive).

The governor’s race

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited and so his seat is up for grabs.

Media coverage of the race conveys the impression that only three Republicans and two Democrats are seeking their parties’ nomination.

In fact, as of Jan. 3 there were 11 Republicans, 9 Democrats and 14 non-party, independent, other party and write-in candidates running for Governor, according to the Florida Department of State.

*Declared candidates for governor, as of Jan. 3, 2026. (Chart: TPP from* *FDoS*)

The ultimate filing deadline is noon, June 12, 2026, so this list can be expected to get perhaps a bit shorter as candidates drop out—but more likely a lot longer.

It’s in this kind of situation that a free and independent media should play its democratic role in winnowing the field to what are generally considered the “serious” candidates.

On the Republican side, the leading candidate is Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), who was endorsed by President Donald Trump even before he declared his candidacy in February. Donalds has also been endorsed by businessman Elon Musk, other large donors and a slew of Republican officeholders in the state and has a reported war chest of $40 million. However, this includes contributions to his congressional campaign, which the Federal Election Commission ruled must be refunded to donors, a dispute that was unresolved as of this writing.

Two other credible Republican candidates are former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, and businessman James Fishback.

Hovering in the wings are Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) and Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, who was long considered a possible contender. By the end of the past year she had not definitively stated her status one way or another, although a run seemed doubtful, and Collins had not declared his candidacy, despite much media speculation.

On the Democratic side the leading contender is David Jolly, a former congressman and converted Republican who has been actively campaigning throughout the state. To the degree that he has any serious challenger within the Party, it comes from Jerry Demings, the Orange County mayor and former sheriff.

(Editor’s note: The most notable candidate in the running, based entirely on name alone, is Republican Shea Cruel. A Cruel versus Jolly race would generate headlines for the ages.)

Two big issues hovering over the gubernatorial race are the degree to which the new governor will continue DeSantis’ culture war against “woke” and policies—particularly against immigration and migrants—and the new governor’s relations with Trump if Trump is in office during the governor’s full tenure.

Despite the seriousness of these issues, the contest on the Republican side has already turned nasty and personal and can expected to become more so as Primary Election Day, Aug. 18, approaches. Candidates clearly see the race turning on personal factors and there is no indication this will change as the year progresses.

(The Paradise Progressive will be covering the gubernatorial race and candidates in much more detail in days to come.)

The Senate race

Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) will be defending her seat this year. Serving as the state attorney general, she was appointed senator by DeSantis in January when sitting senator Marco Rubio was named Secretary of State. In this election Moody will be seeking the office in her own right.

There are already a slew of candidates both on the Republican primary side and among Democrats and independents.

An early Democratic opponent, Joshua Weil, who made a name for himself as a very effective fundraiser in a special congressional election, dropped out of the race in July due to medical conditions. Alexander Vindman, a resident of Broward County and retired US Army colonel whose whistleblowing on Trump’s phone call leading to his first impeachment, has also fueled speculation about a Democratic run for the seat.

However, Moody as the incumbent has the clear advantage in name recognition, funding and endorsements. She won attorney general seats twice in statewide races in 2018 and 2022, although without serious opposition.

However, the unexpected always lurks around the corner.

Candidates for Florida’s Senate seat as of Jan. 3. (Chart: TPP from FDoS)

The Chief Financial Officer race

The state of Florida created the office of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) in 2002, consolidating several finance-related positions into a single Office of Financial Regulation.

This is an elected, Cabinet-level position that is third in line to succeed the governor after the lieutenant governor. There have been four CFOs since its creation, three Republicans, one Democrat as well as a brief acting CFO.

Blaise Ingoglia (R) is the fifth CFO, appointed in July 2025 when the previous one, James “Jimmy” Patronis, stepped down to run for a congressional seat in a special election in the 1st Congressional District to replace the resigning Matt Gaetz.

This year Ingoglia is running to fill a full, four-year term in his own right.

Ingoglia served as a state senator from the 11th District, which covered the largely rural Citrus, Hernando, and Sumter counties and part of Pasco County. Before that he served as a member of the state House of Representatives.

Ingoglia, originally from Queens, NY, moved to Spring Hill, Fla., in 1996 where he worked in real estate and then entered politics in 2008.

Ingoglia has been a consistently extremely conservative politician, often pushing the most radical ideas on issues like immigration enforcement, voting accessibility and taxation.

While there are 6 candidates running for the office, the most credible other candidate is state Sen. Joe Gruters (R-22-Sarasota) who is currently also serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC). He was also former treasurer of the RNC and served as chair of the Florida Republican Party from 2019 to 2023.

Gruters received Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement for CFO in 2024 and is promoting himself as the true America First, Make America Great Again (MAGA) believer, in contrast, he says, to Ingoglia. At the same time DeSantis attacked Gruters as insufficiently conservative.

There is only one non-Republican candidate for the office, John Smith, an Orlando businessman with a hurricane storm shutter business, who is running as non-party affiliated. As of Jan. 3 there were no Democratic Party candidates.

Smith’s candidacy closes the Republican primary to non-Republicans, effectively disenfranchising Democratic voters unless a Democratic candidate appears before the deadline. In this he is effectively functioning as what is known as a “ghost” candidate.

Unless the field changes, this will be a cramped, internecine Republican Party battle based on the fervor of the various candidates’ belief, the purity of their extremism and the ability to appeal to a hardcore MAGA base. It will likely be decided in the August 18 primary.

*Candidates for the position of Florida CFO as of Jan. 3.* *(Chart: TPP from* *FDoS*)

Attorney General

This year James Uthmeier (R) will be defending his seat as Florida Attorney General against a Republican challenger and two Democratic Party candidates.

Uthmeier, 38, was appointed in February 2025 to take the place of Ashley Moody when she was made senator by DeSantis. Prior to that he served as the governor’s chief of staff.

In his short time as Attorney General, Uthmeier has proven an aggressive, heavily ideological and outspoken partisan.

Uthmeier’s most notable action since taking office was the founding—and apparent naming—of the Alligator Alcatraz concentration camp in Collier County. He announced its establishment, heavily promoted it and has vigorously defended it against the lawsuits and challenges.

Uthmeier has also been prominent for other reasons. During the COVID pandemic he opposed masking and vaccine mandates. As attorney general he was held in contempt for violating a judge’s order staying enforcement of Florida’s anti-migrant law, attacked all forms of diversity, equity and inclusion, threatened local governments and officials who showed insufficient zeal for immigration detention efforts, worked hard to undermine local government autonomy, supported Trump’s midterm gerrymandering effort and launched investigations into bio-engineered meat and non-profit organizations collecting climate data—while refusing to defend Florida’s law against gun sales to minors.

Uthmeier’s Republican opponent is Steven Leskovich, a trial attorney who has lived in Florida for 30 years and states that he’s running to defend the Constitution, eliminate corruption, fight crime, “and political weaponization in the justice system.”

There are two Democratic candidates.

Jim Lewis is a political aspirant who previously ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic attorney general nomination in 2022 and mayor of Fort Lauderdale in 2023 as well as a variety of other state and county offices.

Jose Javier Rodriguez served in the Florida House and Senate and was Assistant Secretary of Labor for Employment and Training from April 2024 to the end of President Joe Biden’s term in office.

Candidates for the position of Florida Attorney General as of Jan. 3. (Chart: TPP from FDoS)

Commissioner of Agriculture

While the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture has broad responsibilities and authorities to support and regulate the state’s agriculture, consumer protection and environment, the office is usually a non-controversial one. However, as a Cabinet position it has also proved a platform for aspiring statewide candidates.

In 2018 Nicole “Nikki” Fried won the seat, the only Democratic Party candidate to attain statewide office that year. After leaving office in 2023 she became chair of the Florida Democratic Party. In 2018 Adam Putnam was the leading contender for the Republican gubernatorial nomination until Trump endorsed DeSantis.

This year, as of Jan. 3 there were three candidates for Agriculture Commissioner: Republican Matthew Taylor, Democrat Chase “Andy” Romagno and non-party affiliated Kyle Gibson, who is currently seeking petition signatures to run for governor, rather than commissioner.

Candidates for the position of Florida Agriculture Commissioner as of Jan. 3. (Chart: TPP from FDoS)

Midterms and The Big Rig

Florida appears on the brink of joining Trump’s effort to gerrymander congressional districts nationwide in order to determine the election’s outcome in his favor. Given his use of the word “rig,” “rigged” and “rigging” to denote manipulation of a process, it seems only appropriate to dub his gerrymandering project “The Big Rig.”

It is very difficult to say how the rigging process will play out in Florida. At the end of the year, as the legislature began its early committee hearings, DeSantis and House Speaker Rep. Daniel Perez (R-116-Miami) were both pushing for it. However, DeSantis was floating the idea of a special session while Perez wanted to get it done by the end of the regular session on March 13. By contrast, Senate President Sen. Ben Albritton (R-27-Bartow) was more cautious and in agreement with DeSantis.

Regardless of the timing, there seems agreement to rig Florida’s districts among the legislature’s Republican supermajority. Democrats, as to be expected, are opposed and are backed by grassroots opponents. However, when the House held its first procedural committee hearing on redistricting, the public was shut out and no comments from the floor were allowed—no doubt a preview of what is likely to be a forced, arbitrary and undemocratic effort by lawmakers.

As The Big Rig moved bumpily forward in other states it increasingly looked like Florida could be the last but most decisive Republican state to gerrymander its districts. But even with lawmakers’ likely enthusiasm for the idea, it faces a buzzsaw of legal, political and opposition hurdles. Opponents were encouraged by Indiana’s refusal to bend to Trump’s threats, insults and demands and will likely attempt a repeat in Florida.

If Florida does rig its congressional map, every federal representative and challenger will be affected. Even if Republicans pick up some additional ostensibly Republican districts, that may not matter as much as it would in previously “normal” elections. There is also virtually no doubt that any new map will be challenged in court.

However it ultimately turns out, the battle is already introducing a new level of tumult and turmoil in this year’s already roiled Florida political scene.

Affordability and the property tax debate

Life for everyday Americans is getting more expensive and difficult. The only person who seems to disagree with this assessment is President Donald Trump, who has dismissed discussion of affordability as “a Democratic hoax.”

Florida Democrats, like their counterparts across the country, recognize voters’ stress and are making affordability key plank in their 2026 platform.

“Prices are rising, period. And we are seeing Republican politicians pander to DC and squabble amongst themselves instead of fixing the problem, so Democrats are offering ideas,” Florida House Democratic Leader Rep. Fentrice Driskell (D-67-Temple Terrace) told a press conference on Dec. 8.

The Democrats are already offering legislation to make inroads on high costs but as a minority in a supermajority Republican legislature, the road to passage is steep and the odds are long.

In Florida the affordability crisis is especially acute and the result of a variety of factors like the high proportion of seniors on fixed incomes.

But playing a major role are natural factors like prevalent and frequent disasters like hurricanes, which drive up insurance costs while at the same time making insurers flee the state. Furthermore, climate change is driving up the risks to the state’s residents while the Republican-dominated state government determinedly denies its existence. That in turn dampens efforts to build climatic resilience, increasing the state’s vulnerability to disasters, which in turn drives up costs and insurance rates, in a vicious cycle.

Another factor is human and ideology-driven: The DeSantis administration and the Republican state legislature, in synch with the Trump regime, has waged war against migrants, immigrants and foreigners of all kinds. Not only has every county and jurisdiction in Florida been pressured into working with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) directorate of the US Department of Homeland Security to deport undocumented migrants, the Florida legislature has passed some of the harshest anti-migrant legislation in the country.

This has had the practical effect of devastating Florida’s low-cost labor pool, which previously provided migrant and immigrant labor, particularly in the construction, hospitality, tourism and agricultural sectors. That in turn has driven up the costs of goods and services as labor becomes scarcer and more expensive, the cost of which is passed on to consumers.

(Additionally, Trump’s threats to Canada and his enmity to visiting foreigners has dampened a once-robust tourism industry important to Florida’s economy.)

To compensate for the workforce losses, the Florida legislature has entertained the idea of lowering the barriers to underage labor (introduced by current Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (R) when he served in the Florida House), and allowing minors to work longer hours, for lower wages in more hazardous and demanding jobs.

That their own policies might be exacerbating the affordability crisis for Floridians is not an admissible notion for the Florida Republicans in power, so they must seek some relief in a different remedy.

Taxation has never been popular in Florida and now DeSantis wants to take anti-taxation to a new level and abolish property taxes altogether.

Florida is already a low-tax state. It has no income tax, estate or inheritance taxes. Its tax collection is very low per capita. Most importantly, it features a homestead exemption that reduces the assessed, taxable value of a lived-in home and limits annual property tax increases.

DeSantis floated the idea of ending property taxes in his annual State of the State address on March 4, 2025.

“While Florida property values have surged in recent years, this has come at a cost to taxpayers squeezed by increasing local government property taxes,” he said. “Escalating assessments have created a gusher of revenue for local governments—and many in Florida have seen their budgets increase far beyond the growth in population. Taxpayers need relief. You buy a home, pay off a mortgage—and yet you still have to write a check to the government every year just to live on your own property? Is the property yours or are you just renting from the government?”

Since then the debate over the future of property taxes in Florida has been percolating at a relatively low level but this year when the legislature convenes on Jan. 13 it will be coming to a full boil.

Local governments depend on property taxes to provide basic services, income for schools and infrastructure maintenance and improvement—and the revenue has hardly been a “gusher.” Experts and local officials have been making the case that an end of property taxes would cripple their operations.

“Local governments would lose fiscal autonomy as they would no longer collect property taxes, and they would become dependent on the state for funding (whether it is for schools or other public services like police and fire services),” warned the Florida Policy Institute in an in-depth paper, “A Risky Proposition: Weakening Local Governments by Eliminating Property Tax Revenue,” issued in February.

At the same time CFO Ingoglia has been prowling the state in imitation of Elon Musk and the now-abolished Department of Government Efficiency (locally renamed FAFO, which has a profane generic meaning but in this case stands for the Florida Agency for Fiscal Oversight).

Ingoglia was trying to highlight what he said was wasteful spending by local governments but they pushed back.

“This whole thing is a made-for-television event, and it’s specifically made for television for the CFO’s re-election,” said Seminole County Commissioner Lee Constantine (R-District 3) at a forum in November. At the same event Broward County Democratic Commissioner Steven Geller (D-District 5) was similarly scornful. “Check the numbers,” he said of Ingoglia’s audit of his county. “Because they are fictitious. Made-up. Phony. False.”

In addition to its impact on local governments, experts are warning that abolishing property taxes would have to be made up with sales taxes that fall most heavily on the least wealthy Floridians, the working and middle classes, while benefiting the rich. Florida is already the most “regressive” tax state in the nation and ending property taxes would make the burden even more extreme.

Realtors have also warned that ending property taxes would drive up home prices by 9 percent, repelling new home buyers and renters from the market.

These are thorny, difficult and ultimately increasingly emotional issues that will likely dominate the legislative session and all of 2026.

Two paths diverged

The year’s elections will take place amidst an increasingly fragmented Republican legislative majority.

The days of automatic obedience to DeSantis when he was running for president are over. State Republicans, especially House Speaker Perez, are proving contrarian and intractable—or skeptical and independent, depending on one’s point of view.

This is in no way implies a repudiation of Trumpism. In fact, during the 2025 session the battle between DeSantis and Perez was over who was more passionate and committed in the service of Trump’s hatred of migrants and immigrants. DeSantis viewed the proposals by Perez and the legislature as too weak and when the legislature passed its own TRUMP (Tackling and Reforming Unlawful Migration Policy) Act, (CS/SB 2B), DeSantis vetoed it.

While the rest of the country may be revolting against Trump’s threats and bullying, in Florida legislative pushback against an equally bullying and autocratic state government remains relatively tepid and weak.

Ultimately, the fissures and faults in Florida’s governance will have to be resolved by the primary and general elections this year.

It’s as though Floridians stand at a crossroads: one path leads into sunshine and a brighter future, the other into a dark, watery swamp—and as every Floridian knows, where there’s water, there may be alligators.

When you live in Florida, you have to pick your steps with care, whether in the streets, by the streams—or in the voting booth.

Jan. 1: The year ahead: Keeping the light alive

Jan. 2: Manifesto for an American Rose Revolution

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

The year ahead: Keeping the light alive

Jan. 1, 2026 by David Silverberg

Last October 18, President Donald Trump published images that perfectly summarized his worldview in 2025. In a 19-second Truth Social video, a military plane labeled “King Trump” takes off on a runway.

*The opening image of President Donald Trump’s Oct. 18 “Truth Social” AI video. (Image: White House)*

At the controls is Trump, wearing a an oxygen mask covering his mouth (although not his nose) and most importantly, wearing a crown.

*Donald Trump piloting his plane in his Oct. 18 “Truth Social” AI video. (Image: White House)*

High above New York City, the aircraft opens its bomb bay doors and drops Trump’s waste on massive crowds of “No Kings” protesters in the streets.

*The aircraft dumps its load in President Donald Trump’s Oct. 18 “Truth Social” AI video. (Image: White House)*

It fully encapsulated Trump’s attitude: He’s a king, high above all other humans. “We the people” are worthy only of his waste. In his view, Americans’ proper place is at the bottom of his toilet. To put it in personal terms: He doesn’t serve us; he dumps on us.

*What President Donald Trump thinks of the American people. An image from his Oct. 18 “Truth Social” AI video. (Image: White House)*

And lest he leave any doubt of his view of himself, on Nov. 23, he re-posted an image of himself as an armored king, with Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) kneeling at his feet and the caption “NONE shall escape his justice.”

*Donald Trump as king with conquests in an AI image reposted by the White House. (Image: WH)*

This is the attitude with which Trump and the American people go into a year that marks the 250th anniversary of the United States.

It is a year when Trump will either fully impose his reign and sweep away the vestiges of American democracy, constitutionality and law, or the American people will assert themselves and restore government of, by and for the people.

Trump has made this an either/or proposition. As in 2024, by his actions he has a created a situation in which he can only win everything or lose everything. There is no middle ground, no halfway result.

The Great Equalizer

*A traditional tarot card depiction of Death. (Art: Wikipedia Commons)*

The projections in this look ahead are premised on the assumption that Trump will be in office and command throughout the year. But at 79 years old, that is hardly a given. While Trump may cheat on taxes, he can’t cheat death.

Trump’s physical and mental deterioration have been extensively detailed in media coverage, from the swelling of his ankles, to his dozing off in meetings, to his hand’s discoloration, to his well-documented and unpredictable rages, to his increasingly disjointed and unhinged speeches and social media postings. His doctors routinely give him clean bills of health but in a presidency where lying is equally routine they can be dismissed.

One of the most extensive and seemingly knowledgeable public diagnoses was posted in a 1-minute, 51-second video on Tik-Tok on Dec. 4. A person claiming to be a physical therapist with a doctorate in his field and experience treating geriatric patients with dementia argued that Trump’s obvious dementia and overall physical deterioration are so advanced that he only had three to five months to live, which means he could pass in the March to June timeframe.

If Trump should die in office, Vice President James David “JD” Vance would succeed him. At that point the rest of the year will revolve around the question of whether Vance will continue Trump “policies” and retain Trump’s personnel.

On the presumption that Vance would follow the Constitution the transition should be orderly. However, in personality-based regimes transitions are never smooth and the infighting and maneuvering in a new Vance regime will be spectacular. (A very good depiction of the succession to a dictator is the 2017 movie The Death of Stalin. Something similar can be expected from the Trump regime.)

Another possibility is that Trump suffers a debilitating medical episode, likely a stroke.

On the one hand his handlers may try to hide it, so any prolonged presidential absences should be vigorously probed by Congress and the media.

On the other hand it could be so debilitating the Cabinet has no choice but to invoke the 25th Amendment and take control of government. In this regime nothing less than an event so devastating that it could not be hidden from the public would trigger such action.

Otherwise, among the cultists and sycophants closest to him, his obvious and increasing dementia will be exploited, manipulated and rationalized for as long as possible regardless of the damage it does to the country.

Despite these very real possibilities, in attempting to look ahead at 2026, this analysis will proceed on the assumption that Trump will be in command and control.

Under any circumstances 2026 would be an eventful year.

War?

*A view of a US strike on a boat in the Caribbean on Sept. 2, 2025. (Image: WH)*

The year may see the United States in a full-blown war with Venezuela—or possibly other countries.

Politically, war is the ultimate distraction, effectively shifting attention from domestic matters and internal turmoil. (During the American Civil War, Union Secretary of State William Seward floated the idea of a war with Britain, France or Spain to distract from turmoil at home. “One war at a time,” answered President Abraham Lincoln.)

For months the United States has been making hostile moves against Venezuela and the government of President Nicolas Maduro, who is also an autocrat by any measure of the term. Trump has been insisting this is an attack on narcotics-smuggling terrorists, hence his attacks on boats in the Caribbean and seizure of an oil tanker. However, actual evidence has not been presented that any of this is related to narcotics and the killing of two survivors of a boat strike on Sept. 2 appears to have been a war crime that was allegedly committed on the orders of Secretary of War Peter Hegseth.

If Trump enters the United States into an all-out, undeclared war with Venezuela, the ups and downs of that conflict will dominate headlines until the conflict is resolved.

But just as Trump has learned so much from Russian President Vladimir Putin, he should also absorb the lesson that what may seem like an easy invasion and quick victory can turn into something much bloodier, unpredictable and protracted.

Epstein’s ghost

Ever since Elon Musk mentioned in June that Trump was in the federal files about sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, the files have been a bleeding ulcer for Trump, a painful, oozing wound that won’t go away.

Trump opponents have been hoping that the Epstein files would deliver a knockout blow to Trump’s presidency. Republican members of Congress defected from party discipline to vote to allow their release and thousands of pages were made public on Dec. 19 in response to congressional legislation—and as was to be expected, it appeared that massive redacting had been done to protect Trump.

Then, on Christmas eve, there was a further release of material by former federal prosecutor Jack Smith, which gave rise to lurid but unconfirmed allegations of rape—male and female—murder and infanticide by Trump.

What is year ahead likely to bring in the Epstein affair?

Given Trump’s weathering of other scandals that seemed to be knockout blows like the Hollywood Access tapes or the failed insurrection of January 6, 2021, it’s hard to imagine that even the torrent of Epstein revelations will be much more than a reminder of his corruption. Will it prove that he’s a pedophile? Does anyone doubt that now? Will it reveal a new level of depravity? So what? Will Epstein be proven to have been murdered on his orders? Who’s going to investigate and prosecute? Attorney General Pamela “Pam” Bondi and her Justice Department? Kash Patel and his Federal Bureau of Investigation? Will the utterly subservient Republican-majority Congress investigate and initiate impeachment proceedings? Doubtful. Nor can anyone imagine a weeping and remorseful Trump announcing his resignation in the face of overwhelming evidence.

Aside from further revelations in the year ahead, the Epstein files appear likely to mainly be significant in affording Republican politicians a justification for stepping down from their positions as they dissociate from Trump and the increasingly fracturing Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. On the other side of the aisle the Epstein evidence will give Democrats a nail to keep driving into Trump’s standing and reputation.

Most of all, though, Epstein revelations are likely to just keep feeding public outrage and disgust with Trump as more evidence of pedophilia, perversion and abuse come to light.

Politically, though it seems unlikely to provide the legal or judicial mid-term knockout blow his critics are seeking.

Semiquincentennial storms

For Americans 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the founding of the country, its semiquincentennial (a term virtually no one is likely to use, despite it being an official designation).

Clearly this will heighten political sensitivities given clashing views of the country and its course.

As with all things, Trump is likely to try to make the anniversary about himself. He just can’t help it, it’s essential to his nature.

In 2016 a bipartisan, congressional United States Semiquincentennial Commission began planning the festivities. But in 2025 Trump superseded that with his own White House Task Force on Celebrating America’s 250th Birthday.

While most Americans will want to celebrate the past 250 years and look to a promising future for the country as a whole, Trump will likely do everything he possibly can to put his personal stamp on the event. He will likely try to complete his ballroom in time for the celebration (perhaps hold his first party there on July 4th?).

He has also floated the idea of building a triumphal arch in front of Arlington National Cemetery to glorify himself.

He will no doubt try to personalize the celebration in ways impossible for normal people to conceive at this point.

Nor is he likely to be content merely with hijacking the celebration; he will want to force others to do the same and he may attempt to rewrite history to suit his own preferences.

This is already occurring as the White House Task Force pushes its own artificial intelligence (AI) exhibit of American history, which was created and produced by the conservative PragerU. The exhibit has caused concerns among historians. For example, in an AI video, John Adams uses the phrase “facts do not care about your feelings” a phrase more common to conservative commentator Ben Shapiro than John Adams. (Adams was better known for his phrase: “a nation of laws, not men.”)

As Trump tries to make the 250th anniversary about himself there will also likely be mass demonstrations against his abuses. This raises the possibility that he will exaggerate them as a threat and use the commemoration for a crackdown that laps over into an attempted coup or a military occupation of American cities and imposition of martial law.

There is no doubt that instead of a celebration of unity and pride, the 250th anniversary will be a time of tension and stress with grave dangers to the country that is celebrating its semiquincentennial.

(This is also not to forget that June 14th will mark Trump’s 80th birthday. Last year he celebrated with a $30 million military parade through Washington, ostensibly marking the US Army’s 250th birthday. Without that cover this year, Trump will no doubt find some expensive way to celebrate his birthday and then pile on top of that celebration of self when it comes to the Semiquincentennial.)

FIFA politics

*President Donald Trump is awarded the FIFA Peace Prize by FIFA president Gianni Infantino on Dec. 5, 2025. (Photo: White House)*

The United States, along with Mexico and Canada will be holding the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup competition from June 11 to July 19. The United States will be hosting 11 of the 16 events in cities from Los Angeles to Miami.

While this is not necessarily a political event in the partisan sense of the term, it will be viewed globally as an example of American attitudes toward the rest of the world.

Trump expressed support for FIFA, calling it a “great event” and comparing it to “three Super Bowls a day for a month.” FIFA attempted to cement his support on Dec. 5 by awarding him a contrived FIFA “peace prize” to flatter his ego.

While soccer is ostensibly apolitical, Trump has threatened to politicize it domestically. He warned he would deploy the National Guard to ensure order in American cities with games or send scheduled games elsewhere if he considers them endangered, specifically naming Seattle.

As he said in the presence of Gianni Infantino, the FIFA president: “If we think there is a problem in Seattle, where there is a liberal mayor… Gianni, can I say we will move the event to some place it will be appreciated and safe?”

Matches are scheduled in Democratic-leaning states like California and New York, so he is clearly thinking of the games in partisan terms, using them as a justification for military deployments or using them as political leverage and this could happen without warning or notice. Given the elaborate logistics and preparations for these games any sudden moves or changes in venue will be tremendously disruptive and potentially result in significant economic losses to the cities that lose their scheduled contests.

(When it comes to global sports events, there will also be a 2026 winter Olympics in February in Italy.)

The G20 Summit

Capping off the year in December, Trump is scheduled to host the G20 summit of the world’s leading economic powers. Usually these summits revolve around financial affairs, climate change challenges and sustainable development.

This will be an entirely Trump show. The summit is planned to be held in the United States at one of Trump’s properties, the Trump National Doral Miami resort and spa. It will be a major event for Florida (and no doubt a source of vast profit for Trump personally).

Trump has already put his stamp on the event. The US boycotted the previous G20 held in Johannesburg, South Africa, denouncing the country for propagating a “genocide” against white Afrikaners.

“…The South African Government refuses to acknowledge or address the horrific Human Right Abuses endured by Afrikaners, and other descendants of Dutch, French, and German settlers. To put it more bluntly, they are killing white people, and randomly allowing their farms to be taken from them,” Trump raged in a Truth Social post on Nov. 26, 2025.

When it came time for the host head of state to hand over the gavel for the next summit to the next hosting head of state, the US sent an embassy staffer instead. The South Africans rejected this as an insult and breach of protocol.

That was all the excuse Trump needed to disinvite South Africa from the 2026 summit.

“Therefore, at my direction, South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately,” he posted.

So Trump has already put his stamp on the G20 and if all goes as in the past he can be expected to lord his dominance over the other heads of state, insult and bully them and denigrate their countries and economies—if he deigns to attend in person at all.

But this will be taking place in December and by December, if the rest of the calendar proceeds as planned and Trump is still in office, he may find himself in a very different domestic position, one potentially far less dominant than he’d like to occupy.

The Midterms

A logo for the 2026 Midterm Elections. (Art: AI for TPP/ChatGPT)

This year’s midterms should be viewed as a presidential election, not just elections for a third of the Senate, the entire House of Representatives and state and local offices.

In November 2025 Democrats won stunning victories in races for the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia and the mayoralty of New York City. At the town and county levels they swept other off-year elections across the country. Even in a Tennessee special election in the 7th Congressional District, a Republican victor had a much closer call than the Party would have preferred. Then, on Dec. 9, a Democrat won the mayoralty of Miami, Fla., the first woman in the city’s history and the first Democrat in nearly 30 years.

It all appeared to be an overwhelming, grassroots repudiation of Trump, Trumpism and the Republican Party and a harbinger of far greater losses to come in the 2026 midterms.

“Democrats came out in record numbers, and this is a foreshadow of what we’re going to see next year,” Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist who worked on the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race told Politico, expressing a widely held perception.

Under “normal” circumstances that might be expected. Administrations have traditionally lost ground in their first midterm elections, so the momentum could be expected to continue. Polls appeared to overwhelmingly favor Democratic victories.

Trump argued he was not on the ballot in November and blamed the loss on the government shutdown and a lack of Republican fervor.

But if 2025 was a wake-up call for Democrats it was a five-alarm fire for Republicans.

No sooner were the results in than Trump had a very public feud with his formerly loud and fanatical supporter Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-14-Ga.). After agitating to publicly release the Epstein files, she turned on Trump, denounced him and then announced her resignation effective Jan. 5, 2026.

Other congressional Republicans, weary of Trump’s abuse and fearing voter sentiment followed suit. If enough of them resign this year and their districts are subject to special elections that Democrats win, the possibility exists that Trump could lose his Republican majority in Congress even before the midterm elections.

What is more, Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base appears to be fracturing over the Epstein files and there is no telling what other fault lines are erupting within the regime. There is a strong possibility that in the new year Trump will purge members of his Cabinet or other members of the regime in an effort to scapegoat them for his failures and buy some public approval. As he has shown repeatedly, not even the most subservient subservience or the most extravagant flattery is enough to save anyone he feels like sacrificing.

If these trends simply played out uninterrupted then Democrats would likely sweep the midterm elections and a Democratic House and Senate would likely impeach and probably remove Trump as soon as it took office in 2027.

Midterm gerrymandering: The Big Rig

But as Trump has shown time and again he does not allow trends to play out when they’re unfavorable to him and he is unrestrained, extreme and unpredictable in his interventions.

Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff and political strategist, intends to have “a fun next year,” she told the Moms for Liberty podcast, MomsView on Dec. 9. Wiles intends to deliberately make the midterms a presidential contest because, she said, “so many of those low-propensity voters are Trump voters” and Republicans lose when he’s not on the ballot.

“So, I haven’t quite broken it to him yet, but he’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again,” she said. “So all these people he helps—he doesn’t help everybody but those he helps, he’s a difference-maker and a turnout machine, so the midterms will be very important to us, so we’ll work very hard to keep the majority.”

But while Wiles may intend to use Trump for conventional campaigning, Trump himself is leaving nothing to chance.

He has already blatantly tried to rig the results with an unprecedented and unconstitutional mid-decade redistricting, arguing that the 2020 census was “rigged.” At his direction Texas agreed to gerrymander its districts to pick up five Republican seats but then California did the same to pick up an equal number of Democratic seats.

As of this writing six states are creating new congressional maps: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Utah. Virginia was beginning the process as was Maryland. It seems appropriate to call his effort “The Big Rig.” (Editor’s note: You read it here first!)

Florida is considering redrawing its maps and the legislature began its first committee hearings. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) declared himself in favor of redistricting and the Republican legislature is likely to comply, if past is any prologue.

The kind of pressure Trump would assert to get his way was publicly evident in Indiana, whose Hoosiers proved surprisingly stubborn in defending the Constitution.

Trump blasted anti-rig Hoosiers with insults like “RINO” and “WEAK and PATHETIC,” and threatened to run candidates against them in their primary elections.

Although Indianans agreed to consider redistricting, in the end the state Senate rejected it on Dec. 11.

“Misinformation, cruel social media posts, over-the-top pressure from within the state house and outside, threats of primaries, threats of violence, acts of violence. Friends, we’re better than this,” said state Sen. Greg Goode (R-38-Terre Haute) in a speech on the floor before voting against the measure.

It seemed a small payback for Trump’s incitement to lynch his Vice President, Indianan Mike Pence, on Jan. 6, 2021.

But gerrymandering is not the only scenario in which Trump is trying to rig the midterm elections to go his way.

As he has in past elections, Trump is on a crusade against existing forms of voting. On Aug. 18 he went on a lengthy tirade vowing: “I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS, and also, while we’re at it, Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES…” and declaring “THE MAIL-IN BALLOT HOAX, USING VOTING MACHINES THAT ARE A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER, MUST END, NOW!!!”

But it’s not just restricting voting access through mail and machine counting that threatens the midterm ballot. Dominion Voting Systems, the company that made the voting machines Trump and his allied pundits attacked for the 2020 election results (and which successfully sued Fox News, Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell for defamation), was purchased in October by Scott Leiendecker, a former Republican election official for St. Louis, Mo., and a company he created called Liberty Vote. Dominion (or now, Liberty) machines are used in 27 states.

While Liberty Vote is attempting to reassure customers that the ownership change won’t affect the integrity of the vote count, the fact that it is run by a Republican partisan who is likely to be susceptible to Trump pressure is a cause for concern and could affect the midterm outcome.

Another possibility is election tampering with results through digital or wireless means. Given that false bomb threats forced the evacuation of swing state polling places on Election Day 2024 there has been suspicion that results were altered or affected digitally in some way.

If true, this could occur again and making it more worrisome, or more likely, are extensive personnel cuts and reductions in the activities of the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which previously tracked election threats and assisted states and localities with their election security.

Beyond these measures, if Trump doesn’t like the outcome there are a variety of other actions he might take to illegally alter it.

Scary scenarios

Trump could send in the military to seize machines as was contemplated in 2020. (The full text of his draft order is available for viewing and download at the end of this essay.)

This is likely one reason he was so outraged by the video made by six members of Congress who had served in the military or intelligence services telling servicemembers not to obey illegal orders. If Trump orders military units to seize voting machines, stop voting or lethally attack American voters, he needs them to automatically and unthinkingly obey. But with a military that learned its lessons from the Nazi Holocaust and which swears an oath to protect and defend the United States Constitution, such orders would be illegal—but they are orders Trump and his regime members would likely attempt to execute.

Also, his deployment of military personnel and National Guard units to American cities to ostensibly fight crime could also be used to impose martial law in cities where protests might erupt if he attempts to cancel or pre-empt the elections.

If the military proves unreliable for his purposes he could also use paramilitary units of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) directorate of the Department of Homeland Security. These are not subject to the Uniform Code of Military Justice and would be unlikely to defy any orders that would be illegal for the uniformed military.

Taking any of these courses of action risks civil disruption, mass protests, widespread litigation, military mutiny, and, most dangerous of all, civil violence—not to mention that they would simply be illegal. But Trump has legal immunity for official actions, he routinely ignores the law and he has proven himself heedless of consequences.

There will be carrots as well as sticks, of course. On Dec. 17, in his White House address Trump announced bonuses of $1,776 to members of the military to buy their loyalty, or at least silence. He has already proposed a $12 billion bailout to farmers hurt by his cutoff of their markets through punitive tariffs. There will no doubt be other inducements and likely outright bribes—something with which he is familiar—to voters.

But even if the election comes off as planned, the danger doesn’t end there. If Trump doesn’t like the results he could pull another big lie as he did in 2020, declaring that the results were rigged and deny the outcome. Then, 60 courts found his charges baseless. But he persisted nonetheless and even with evidence as compelling as a recording of him pressuring Georgia officials to “find” the votes to overturn the official results, he beat election interference charges. No doubt this will embolden him to do the same in the midterms.

A tsunami of lies, insults and threats, all of it fueled by a torrent of cash, both overt and dark, can be expected to flood America’s airwaves and media, social and otherwise, attacking the outcome if it’s unfavorable. As in 2020 Trump and his accomplices will do everything they possibly can to cast doubt on the count. They will no doubt launch a wave of baseless lawsuits to overturn unfavorable results in key races.

As on January 6, 2021, Trump may attempt to incite a physical prevention of a new Congress taking office, only this time he may try to use the military or ICE agents in place of a mob to overturn the legislative branch and physically prevent members of Congress from being sworn in and taking office. He might try to destroy the Capitol building—again.

In an AI-generated scenario illustration, on President Trump’s orders ICE agents cordon off the United States Capitol on Jan. 3, 2027 to prevent newly-elected members of Congress from convening and taking the oath of office. (AI for TPP/ChatGPT)

If Republicans retain their congressional majority they will likely be the most battered, beaten and bullied victors in history. Trump will expect absolute, unthinking obedience. He will be unrestrained in his threats, even—or especially—to members of his own party. Anyone stepping even an inch out of line will be labeled a “traitor,” as was Greene. Violence and death threats will follow. At some point one or more of those threats will likely be executed and an errant member of Congress or other Republican will be killed, maimed or wounded.

If these scenarios seem extreme or unlikely, one has to reckon with the desperation of Trump and his regime to stay in power. If he loses office he and his accomplices will face a reimposition of real law enforcement. There can be little doubt that not only Trump but his family and his every appointee have crimes to cover up. His billionaire backers not only have tax cuts to protect but every grift, embezzlement and fraud they may have perpetrated under his watch as well.

Steve Bannon sees this clearly and he didn’t mince words: “And I will tell you right now, as God is my witness, if we lose the midterms, if we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison – myself included. They’re not gonna stop,” he told the Conservative Partnership Institute on Nov. 5. Bannon was referencing Democrats but what Trumpists will really face is the full, impartial machinery of the law, once that machinery is righted and set back in motion.

*Steve Bannon addresses the Conservative Partnership Institute on Nov. 5. (Image: YouTube)*

That is already fueling a lot of urgency and fear among Trump, the regime and MAGA. Bannon’s solution? “What do we have to counter it with? We have to counter it with more action, more intense action, more urgency. We’re burning daylight.”

If there was any doubt about the impact of the cascade of bad news on Trump himself, it was dispelled during his 20-minute White House address to the nation on Dec. 17. Numerous commentators saw its delivery as evidence of sheer panic. It was as though Trump thought that if he delivered the speech angrily enough, loudly enough and rapidly enough he could bend reality to his own vision where he was perfect, someone else was to blame and America was in a new golden age.

Trump and his accomplices literally cannot afford to lose the midterm elections. That makes them cornered, desperate and very, very dangerous—and the “intense action” Bannon mentioned includes all measures, legal, illegal and at this point, unimaginable.

A new Navalny?

*Gov. Gavin Newsom of California. (Photo: Office of Gov.)*

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) of California has emerged as the chief elected official directly opposing Trump, countering his gerrymandering efforts and pointedly mocking him on social media.

While Trump directs his special hatred against former President Joe Biden, it is Newsom who is leading the charge against him and at this point seems like a front-running Democratic presidential candidate for 2028.

It is three years until that election. That’s a long time away, especially in politics. Whether Trump will be a candidate for an unconstitutional third term or whether he will even be in a condition to run cannot be known at this writing.

However, as predicted by The Paradise Progressive, Trump, his regime and his followers are waging a war against Newsom and California.

Newsom’s relative youth, energy, intelligence and charisma recall another politician who fought for democracy in his native land: Alexei Navalny in Russia.

*Alexei Navalny in 2006 (photo: Wikimedia Commons/Oleg Kozerev)*

Navalny was a lawyer who emerged as an opponent of Vladimir Putin and whose political activism and determined commitment to democracy increasingly threatened Russia’s slide into autocracy. Accordingly, he faced the opposition of Putin and the regime, which first used blatantly false criminal charges and trials against him, then arrests, then an attempted poisoning, then imprisonment in a Siberian penal colony and finally outright murder to end his threat.

Given Trump’s slavish admiration for Putin as a mentor and teacher, Trump could imitate Putin’s methods against Newsom, whether with false charges and investigations or even physical threats like poisoning.

Indeed, Trump’s selective prosecutorial vengeance against his perceived enemies endangers all Democratic or anti-Trump candidates this year. The American public may be treated to the horrifying spectacle of mass prosecutions against legitimate, legally running candidates.

There’s no need to consign this to the realm of conspiracy theory given that Trump revealed his direct orders to prosecute those whom he wanted persecuted in an X-post to Attorney General Pam Bondi on Sept. 20, 2025, which may have been a personal communication that was inadvertently made public.

*President Donald Trump’s Sept. 20, 2025 direct order to Attorney General Pam Bondi ordering the prosecution of his perceived enemies and the hiring of lawyer Lindsey Halligan. (Image: Truth Social)*

Prosecution and persecution

Bondi, who appears to be the most cowardly, compliant, complicit, feckless, subservient and partisan attorney general in American history, obeyed Trump’s order at that time and will likely obey further orders to prosecute candidates on whatever pretext Trump chooses. Even if the cases are thrown out in court the way the cases against James Comey and Letitia James were, investigations, lawsuits and prosecutions eat up valuable time and money just when candidates need to be campaigning.

What is more, Bondi has directed federal prosecutors to pursue what she views as “extremist groups” that threaten violence. In a Dec. 4 memorandum to federal prosecutors she called for the investigation and pursuit of allegedly extremist groups opposing “law and immigration enforcement;” and expressing “extreme views in favor of mass migration and open borders; adherence to radical gender ideology, anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, or anti-Christianity; support for the overthrow of the United States Government; hostility towards traditional views on family, religion, and morality; and an elevation of violence to achieve policy outcomes, such as political assassinations.”

It’s a broad brush that could be used to stain virtually any Trump opponent. (The full memo can be read and downloaded at the end of this article.)

All of this could have happened previously in American history but before the emergence of Donald Trump a sense of concern for the welfare of the nation and the integrity of the political process restrained such actions. Even if higher values didn’t prevent this kind of lawfare, the iron law of politics that “what goes around, comes around,” induced some caution in even the most vengeful politicians.

But Trump has shown time and again and particularly on January 6, 2021, he believes no laws apply to him, he has no sense of restraint or limit, and backed by a Supreme Court ruling of official immunity, these kinds of measures are real possibilities in the year ahead, especially if he seems to be losing in the conventional political arena.

Trouble and turbulence

All this will be playing out against a backdrop of rising protests, economic stress, likely increasing violations of basic rights, intensifying immigrant deportations and, as always, Trump’s relentless, unremitting drive for total domination and complete autocracy.

The raids, detentions and deportations are likely to intensify this year because ICE has already picked the low-hanging fruit, having seized the people who actually have criminal records, as was the ostensible purpose of the effort. From there, they next grabbed the people—including American citizens—who were easy to snatch and those trying to comply with legal asylum requirements and proceedings.

But now they still have to fulfill their arbitrary quotas, which Trump has made clear are based more on race than rationality. That means there will likely be deeper, more invasive raids, more street snatchings and more violations of what were once thought to be safe spaces like schools, churches and workplaces, as well as homes.

If the true purpose was to rid the United States of criminal aliens, the effort might ease off as the number of actual criminal aliens go down but that’s not the purpose—the true purpose of this effort is to drive out the foreign-born population of the United States using racial profiling and smearing all aliens, immigrants and migrants as threats, criminals and undesirables. As last year ground to an end the regime was less and less bashful about stating that outright.

Trump has likened immigration to “an invasion” and his enablers, notably Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller, denounced what the regime characterized as a Democratic plot to flood the country with foreigners so they could get “hooked to welfare and be able to participate in American elections,” as Miller put it in a Nov. 30 interview with Sean Hannity.

But no one put it more bluntly than Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in an X-posting on Dec. 1 following a meeting with Trump: “I am recommending a full travel ban on every damn country that’s been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies,” she wrote.

“Our forefathers built this nation on blood, sweat, and the unyielding love of freedom—not for foreign invaders to slaughter our heroes, suck dry our hard-earned tax dollars, or snatch the benefits owed to AMERICANS.

“WE DON’T WANT THEM. NOT ONE.”

Given this blind, fanatical hatred of foreigners, immigrants and immigration, any slackening of the ICE onslaught is unlikely, even as legitimate targets become harder to find. Indeed, just as Adolf Hitler accelerated the roundup and murder of Jews as the Third Reich began to crumble, so Trump will likely accelerate seizures and detentions if he feels his grip on power—or life—weakening and there is not one of his appointees at any level who will stand up to him.

And lest anyone have any doubts about his and his regime’s intentions, DHS revealed in December that it contracted to purchase six Boeing 737 aircraft at a cost of $140 million specifically to carry out deportations in order to meet Trump’s goal of deporting 1 million people by the end of his first term in office. It is also planning to remodel warehouses in seven locations so that it can hold up to 80,000 detainees at a time.

ICE agents on the ground will be tasked with filling those aircraft and warehouses.

America abroad

Also factoring into domestic politics will be a world increasingly in crisis as Trump threatens new wars and continuously moves to align the United States with Russian interests and Putin’s dictates at the expense of longstanding allies.

The United States of America no longer has a foreign policy. “Policy” is a rational set of directions and guidelines, rationally formulated, taking into account a wide variety of factors and influences. Indeed, so irrelevant is Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the process he was reduced to fiddling with fonts on State Department communications.

Today, America’s relations with the world are determined by one man’s whim and caprice based on his hatreds, rages and greed, without accountability or care for his impacts. Whereas the Constitution gives Congress warmaking powers, under Trump the United States can be committed to conflict based on his opinion or urges of the moment. It has become a country that can go to war on one man’s command, as Adolf Hitler did in Russia, Benito Mussolini did in Greece, Saddam Hussein did in Kuwait and Vladimir Putin did in Ukraine.

Further roiling the waters in addition to wars that might turn the rest of the Western Hemisphere against the United States and moves to detach America from its longstanding ties to Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, there will be the longer-term impacts of Trump’s isolationism, trade protectionism, unpredictable tariffs and hostility to foreigners of all sorts.

Poorer, sicker, weaker?

The United States might also be hurled into the abyss of sovereign default if it fails to pay its obligations—and Trump is notorious for welching on his obligations. It will certainly plunge deeper into debt. Americans may find themselves in the midst of an economic depression as great or greater than the one suffered in 1929, especially if Trump replaces Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell—whom Trump is threatening to sue—with one of his compliant, unqualified cronies as is expected when Powell’s term ends on May 15. His departure will be a major economic event in 2026.

All of this will impact everyday Americans at the bottom of Trump’s toilet with fewer goods at higher prices, fewer social services and protections, fewer public health protections and vastly more expensive healthcare, and far fewer freedoms and rights.

And Trump will not only simply not care, he will gloat.

As he has in the past, he will also try to shape perceptions to his fantasies—and believe his lies himself.

There is no good that can come from this dictatorship or the objects it pursues. It is irrational, delusional and even deranged. Its long term consequences are without a doubt catastrophic for the United States of America and are headed toward ending the great experiment in freedom that began exactly 250 years ago.

What can everyday Americans do about this?

They are not helpless.

That will be the subject of tomorrow’s post.

To read the full text of Donald Trump’s draft 2020 order seizing voting machines, click below. (Source: January 6 Committee)

Draft seizure order 12-16-2020 Download

To read and download the full text of Attorney General Pam Bondi’s memo to federal prosecutors, click below.

Bondi memo on Domestic Enforcement 12-4-2025 Download

Coming tomorrow: Manifesto for an American Rose Revolution

Coming Jan. 5: Florida’s year ahead: Swamp or sunshine?

To read last year’s predictions and outcomes, click here.

*Artwork by Chapin Lee, 10th grader at Lely High School, for the Collier County, Fla., Supervisor of Elections art contest, 2026 (Art: Collier SoE)*

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Pathetic or prophetic? Looking back on America’s dark and stormy year

*Gazing into a crystal ball, not to look to the future but to understand the past. (Art: AI for TPP/ChatGPT)*

Nov. 17, 2025 by David Silverberg

Sometimes clearly seeing the future brings no joy. There is such a thing as being too prophetic.

Since 2022, as each year has dawned, The Paradise Progressive has tried to look ahead at domestic political trends and likelihoods in the year to come, trying to objectively think through the direction events were taking. What would be the big stories that would bear watching in the coming days?

But it’s not enough to just make predictions; when the year ends, anyone peering ahead has an obligation to evaluate his or her accuracy and ability as a seer.

Accordingly, in 2023 The Paradise Progressive began grading its own predictions when the year ended, first on an A to F scale and then, last year, as simply “prophetic” or “pathetic.”

It is doing this again this year, if a bit early. There’s still a month and a half to go in 2025 and given this president and regime virtually anything may happen in the next 44 days.

But in a year of momentous events it makes sense to take a pause on the eve of Thanksgiving. People who are able to afford to sit down to a full table, free from fear of sudden seizure or detention, should truly give thanks for the abundance of their blessings.

It is sad and startling to report that the predictions made by The Paradise Progressive at the beginning of 2025, just before Donald Trump was inaugurated for the second time, were horrifyingly accurate and the darkest prospects and most extreme dangers came to pass.

This analysis only includes those firm predictions that can be judged in light of later events, not the many questions and uncertainties that were raised by Trump’s election and inauguration.

Together, these predictions provide a view of what historians will surely record as one of the most—if not the most—grievous years in American history.

What were they? Let us review them together, first the predictions in italics, then the results.

Part 1—Defying darkness: Anticipating the year ahead in domestic politics

“Trump and his legions can be expected to hit hard and move fast. There will be sweeping disruptions, especially in the first 100 days of the regime, indeed probably even announced in the inaugural address on Jan. 20. Even on his first day, Trump has said he will be a dictator and issue an avalanche of executive orders to—at the very least—encourage fossil fuel exploration and usage, round up migrants and pardon January 6th insurrectionists. But numerous other orders are likely to go much further.”

Trump and his regime knew they needed to act before opposition could coalesce and their measures could be challenged through litigation or legislation. So, as predicted, they hit hard and moved fast.

Indeed, on his first day in office, Trump issued 26 executive orders, covering everything from establishing the Department of Government Efficiency to withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accord. As of this writing, he has issued a total of 212 executive orders. Some have been challenged in court and remain unresolved. But they nonetheless upended the United States government and the lives of all Americans.

Of the three matters explicitly named, when it came to fossil fuel exploitation, Trump declared a national energy emergency and prioritized oil exploration on federal lands—including in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. When it came to rounding up migrants, the Trump regime initiated what has amounted to an ethnic and racial war against Hispanics and all immigrants, sweeping up US citizens of long duration in its dragnet. When it came to the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, on his first day in office Trump pardoned or commuted the sentences of the insurrectionists—and he has issued over 1,600 pardons for all kinds of federal criminals and miscreants since.

“It will be a year when Donald Trump attempts to dominate all thought, action, law, media, policy, and government and where he fails to do this personally, his cultists, followers and enablers will work on his behalf and toward his ends.”

That certainly proved prophetic. The second Trump administration not only pursued total dominance in all areas of government, it initiated a cultural revolution that attempted—and continues to attempt—a brutish cultural assault, from bullying and extorting institutions of higher learning to stop free inquiry, to suppressing critical media through threats and litigation, to disparaging and canceling individual artists and performers.

If any one act expressed this cultural revolution more than any other, it was Trump’s takeover of the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC, having himself named chairman of its board and even floating the idea of re-naming it for himself or his wife, neither of whom had any connection to it, its culture or its mission.

“This regime will be characterized by pettiness, cruelty, hatred, prejudice, rage, disparagement, racism, misogyny, and criminality. It will rule through threats, intimidation and defamation. It will be corrupt to its very marrow.”

This prophecy was fulfilled in so many ways that listing them would be exhausting—and redundant. Any American can recite a litany of Trump regime outrages, offenses and crimes. All one has to do is look at Trump’s Truth Social postings to document this prediction. What is more, every day brings new and often bizarre examples.

Fear has now been institutionalized as a governing principle and the regime is at war with the people whom previous presidents once served.

“For everyday consumers, anti-immigration measures will mean higher prices and harsher inflation and with national anti-immigrant measures coming on top of the ones that Florida has already enacted, the price at checkout is likely to be steep—to say nothing of the human suffering that will underly it.”

Prices are rising steeply, as anyone can see from their grocery bills (the price of coffee was up 18.9 percent in September). But it’s not just anti-immigration measures that are causing this; a major driver is Trump’s tariffs (more about them below).

Government-issued statistics on matters like inflation can no longer be automatically considered reliable. In August, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics when he disliked a revised report on the unemployment rate. The prolonged government shutdown and purges of vital government officials severely weakened the federal government data-gathering abilities.

This affected even vital functions like setting the Federal Reserve’s prime interest rate. When Chairman Jerome Powell held a press conference on Oct. 29, he acknowledged the lack of reliable data for Federal Reserve decisionmaking and likened it to driving in fog.

“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog?” he asked. “You slow down.” In this context he meant the Federal Reserve might not change interest rates at its next meeting.

However, a variety of sources, both government and non-government put the real current inflation rate at 3 percent.

When it came to immigration, The Paradise Progressive predicted:

“…the Trump roundup can be expected to be spectacular, very public and as harsh as possible. It will likely be conducted as a television spectacle, a reality show intended to send a message of mercilessness to the world that discourages all immigration, legal and otherwise.”

This prediction is horrifically borne out daily as stories emerge of brutality by masked agents of the Department of Homeland Security’s directorate of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In every corner of the United States, people suspected of illegal residence are being snatched off the streets and in courtroom corridors by anonymous men without warrants, in unmarked vehicles, with dubious justifications. Then they’re whisked away into a gulag of unaccountable and untraceable detention facilities and denied due process or the opportunity to prove their innocence—or citizenship, or legal resident status.

Lest residents of Southwest Florida believe that they are immune, their communities are in the crosshairs too, as ICE agents descend on the town of Immokalee, round up agricultural workers and simply stop vehicles on Southwest Florida roads with people they deem suspicious or who are simply the wrong color.

“For the first time there will be concentration camps on American soil and Americans will see them on their television screens.”

Of all the 2025 predictions, this one came most horrifyingly and surprisingly true. That there would be concentration camps for the regime’s undesirables was entirely predictable. But The Paradise Progressive did not foresee that the first of these camps, the archetype and model for an American gulag, would be established in its own back yard, in Collier County, Florida, in the heart of the Everglades and that it would be designated “Alligator Alcatraz.”

“These roundups and deportations will likely be fought in the courts but with its placement of obedient judges, the regime will probably plow through the court system the same way Trump plowed through his criminal cases. Those cases that reach the Supreme Court will be adjudicated by a Trump-appointed majority of justices—and he may gain more appointments as sitting justices retire.”

The US courts have proved an occasional impediment to Trump’s arbitrary actions but they also proved little more than speed bumps on the road to autocracy. Nonetheless, some of the most egregious actions were at least delayed or reconsidered as they were tried, appealed and judged.

The judiciary, established as a co-equal branch of government, was intended by the Founders as an important check and balance on the other two branches. It has not always gotten things right.

But, extraordinarily, the six-member majority of the current Supreme Court, three of whose justices were appointed by Trump and confirmed in his first administration, has not only aided, abetted and enabled dictatorship but specifically and actively sought to confirm and elevate a Trump dictatorship. They want him as king and they’ve done everything they can to ensure his unfettered rule—not governance, but rule.

Of all this Supreme Court’s decisions—and that includes its 2022 overturn of Roe v. Wade—the most fundamentally damaging one came with its ruling in Trump v. United States in 2024 holding that presidents are immune from the law in their official actions. That ruling, which overturned the concept of equal justice under law, the bedrock of American legal principle, enabled the wild, unchecked dictatorial rampage that characterized 2025.

“If Trumpflag-waving Southwest Floridians think they will be spared crippling inflation and a scarcity of goods, they should think again. At the very least the prices for the Canadian-made replacement parts for their sticker-covered pickup trucks are going to rise to the point where they’ll have to jury-rig their swamp buggies like Cubans keeping their 1959 Chevvies on the road.”

This absolutely came true. Tariffs have placed an enormous non-tax burden on the American consumer, according to both government and non-government estimates.

*The rise in prices of common food items in September 2025. (Chart: CNBC)*

“The accession of Donald Trump to the presidency will mean the return of what has been called ‘Trumpality,’ the Trump worldview or mindset in which objective truth has little to no value.”

Further,

“But in a broader sense, the imposition of Trumpality in the coming year will be pervasive and likely crippling to a United States whose whole success has been built on determining and responding to reality.”

Also,

“That delusional thinking will not only likely be evident this year, it will be imposed from above. It will likely affect everything from public health to weather forecasting. It will pervade the media whether mainstream, social or ideological as they both report what he asserts no matter how false and acquiesce to his version of events to avoid retaliation or retribution.”

Donald Trump’s war on reality and the media was aided and abetted by his billionaire supporters, who snapped up media properties in order to impose the Trump agenda from corporate boardrooms.

The First Amendment was not violated because Congress made no law abridging freedom of the press but the entire business infrastructure undergirding independent America media was undermined and subverted. Trump-obedient billionaires traded media properties among themselves like Pokéman cards.

The fiercely independent Washington Post of Donald and Katherine Graham became the cringing organ of Jeff Bezos, blocking the editorial board’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, cheering on Trump’s destruction of the White House East Wing, and banning alternative viewpoints from its opinion pages. The once-proud CBS television network of Edward R. Murrow and Walter Cronkite became the Trump cheerleading squad headed by Bari Weiss, a partisan, far-right columnist with no broadcast experience. The New York Times, the British Broadcasting Corporation, Wall Street Journal and over 20 media organizations were threatened by billion dollar lawsuits for reporting and broadcasting facts that Trump didn’t like. Social media platforms like Facebook ripped down their community standards to allow disinformation postings and Trump propaganda.

Many media controls had been imposed to protect the public against dangerous disinformation being spread during the COVID pandemic of 2020-2022. But that changed too, as The Paradise Progressive predicted.

“The opposition to vaccines and public health measures as evidenced by the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as Secretary of Health and Human Services, has the potential to wipe out a century of medical progress and scientific advancement in promoting public health and replace it with a brew of conspiracy theories, disbelief and even outright superstition.”

After a horrifically botched response to the COVID outbreak based on Trump’s delusional assertions that “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear,” and his insistence that it didn’t matter, national science and public health staged a comeback under President Joe Biden. But as predicted, the Trump regime did all it could to undermine and subvert that, cutting jobs, dismissing scientists and experts and altering findings at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration.

“The war on equality in all forms is almost certain to take place on many fronts this year.”

As predicted, the war on basic equality as well as diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in all forms—already well underway in Florida—erupted with new ferocity during the year, with it being used as a club against higher educational institutions and corporations alike who faced extortionate fines and penalties for supporting equality in hiring, teaching and thinking. It was extended to the military by Secretary of War Peter Hegseth, who dismissed high-ranking female officers and eradicated monuments to black service people and heroes both at home and abroad.

“The most obvious possible Democratic presidential candidate to challenge Trump in 2028 (if there’s an election and if Trump runs again) is Gov. Gavin Newsom of California.”

And,

“The world can expect a massive Trumpist war against Newsom and the state of California starting this year and every year that Trump is president.”

Sure enough, Trump, who persisted in calling Newsom “Newscum,” embarked on a campaign of vilification and disparagement. But he didn’t predict—and The Paradise Progressive didn’t foresee—that Newsom would hit back with a campaign of his own that turned Trump’s social media postings against him with humor and pointedly funny parodies.

With his outspokenness and determination, Newsom emerged as the leader of the resistance among elected officials. He called out Trump’s autocratic moves for what they were and took concrete steps to counter them. And what were those autocratic moves? The Paradise Progressive predicted them too.

“Indeed, throughout the country expect attacks aimed at denying Democrats any possibility of ever winning any election again at any level, whether through ballot access denial or election interference in Democratic districts and cities, especially, in response to opposition to anti-migrant roundups and deportations and possible ‘sanctuary’ cities.”

The most blatant and egregious election interference was Trump’s attempt to get states to gerrymander district lines in mid-decade in order to deny Democrats seats in Congress in the 2026 elections.

The Paradise Progressive foresaw the effort but not the specific means—the idea of a mid-decade redistricting was so bizarre and unconstitutional it was beyond imagining at the outset of the year. The state of Texas immediately redrew its lines and other Trumpist states are doing the same. In Florida Gov. Ronald DeSantis (R) said he was open to the idea but concluded that Republicans wouldn’t gain that many seats. Still, as of this writing the notion hasn’t entirely been rejected.

Newsom understood the threat and launched a counterattack in California, pushing through a referendum on redistricting and proceeding to redistrict the state to counter Texas’ effort. Other Democratic states may follow.

However the Trumpist gerrymander turns out nationally, it was indicative of Trump’s determination to rig the 2026 election, stay in power no matter what, and deny Americans a genuine say in their government, as predicted at the outset of the year.

Part 2—Defying darkness: Anticipating the year ahead abroad and the new triumvirate

As the year began, The Paradise Progressive noted that a new triumvirate had emerged to dominate the world. In a subsequent post, it theorized about the possibility that Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping could conspire to divide the world between them and support each other’s expansionist goals and territorial ambitions. (Warning: A Trump-Putin-Xi conspiracy theory.)

But just as Rome’s triumvirate didn’t last, neither did today’s. The Paradise Progressive predicted that too.

“But also militating against the survival of this triumvirate is Trump’s inveterate lying and his lifetime record of welching on commitments and contracts. Just as a Mafia loan shark doesn’t take kindly to a deadbeat borrower, Putin and his mafia-like siloviki won’t take kindly to Trump reneging on whatever agreement they had that put him in office. The embers of this conflagration already seem to be sparking.”

What The Paradise Progressive did not foresee was the degree to which Trump used international trade tariffs as wildly and whimsically as he did, imposing and lifting them without notice or explanation. He tried to use them to punish Brazil for enforcing its laws against its own would-be dictator and Trump protégé, Jair Bolsonaro. He imposed them on Canada because the province of Ontario dared to run a television ad he didn’t like. He imposed them on China, then lifted them, then altered them, then reimposed them and then lifted them again after a phone call with President Xi Jinping. There’s no telling where they’ll stand tomorrow.

All these tariffs, which Trump regarded as a cost-free form of revenue, were in fact a form of consumer tax and drove up consumer prices, exactly as predicted.

“At least initially, this year, it’s likely to result in higher prices across the board and scarcity of goods as these men’s rivalries take the form of trade wars.”

Unforeseen was Trump’s war against Venezuela. At the beginning of the year it was Canada, Panama and Greenland that seemed to be in Trump’s crosshairs. But then American forces started destroying what were purported to be drug-smuggling boats off the coast of Venezuela, a campaign that steadily escalated.

As this is written American forces are gathering in the Caribbean in what appears to be preparation for an assault on Venezuela. But history provides a note of caution. Like Adolf Hitler’s invasion of Russia, or Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, or Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a unilateral, Trump-commanded American assault on Venezuela has within it the possibility of a regime-changing catastrophe—and that regime very well might be Donald Trump’s.

Part 3—Defying darkness: Southwest Florida politics and the year ahead

Locally, The Paradise Progressive noted:

“As the year dawns the two biggest local political stories in Southwest Florida concern criminal investigations and court cases.”

“In Collier County, on Nov. 7, multiple federal agencies searched the properties of Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the extremely conservative, outspoken and politically active farmer and grocer.”

Further,

“An easy prediction for 2025 is that it will be a major story in Southwest Florida when a public announcement is made in this case.”

Indeed it was a major story but the outcome was different than anticipated. Oakes was never charged with any crime and the heavy hand of the law fell instead on Steven Veneziano Jr., an Oakes Farms vice president. Veneziano and six other defendants pleaded guilty to defrauding the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program by falsifying crop records.

Veneziano is also being sued by Oakes for allegedly defrauding and embezzling $12.5 million from the company. The ultimate outcome of this affair may become known next year.

“In Lee County to the north, resolution of accusations against Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno for possible money laundering and misappropriation of funds will be another major political story for 2025.”

By the end of the year the threat to Marceno seemed to have evaporated. The Florida Trident, a non-profit investigative online newsroom, reported on Oct. 3 that Ken Romano, a key witness against Marceno, was worried that the case was being killed by US Attorney General Pam Bondi.

“Hey Carmine, pay attention,” Romano stated in an October TikTok video directed to Marceno. “So, word on the street from your own people, a lot of your own people, is that [Anthony] Lomangino, [a major donor to both Trump and Marceno] and Pam Bondi, the Attorney General of the United States, is gonna take all this, whatever’s happened, and put it on the shelf for you. Is that true? Answer me, answer the public. Is that true?”

Since The Florida Trident report, there have not been any publicly reported developments in the case. Marceno is reportedly thinking of running for Congress in Florida’s 19th Congressional District.

As with the Oakes affair, Marceno’s ultimate fate may be resolved in the year to come.

“The prospect for 2025 is for DeSantis to keep governing the state, with an eye to his post-gubernatorial opportunities. But a position in the Trump regime seems unlikely to be one of them.”

This too turned out to be prophetic. Despite some positions being floated, DeSantis received no offers (at least none publicly announced or acknowledged) from Donald Trump. Their animus seemed to recede when Trump came to open the Alligator Alcatraz concentration camp in July and joked that “We had a little off period for a couple of days, but it didn’t last long.” But there was never any evidence of a deeper thawing of relations or a place for DeSantis in the regime in the days that followed.

When it came to the people of Florida as a whole, The Paradise Progressive predicted:

“This population will also be less healthy than in the past as public health protections are dismantled and vaccinations dismissed. Public health will be in the hands of anti-vaxxers, both nationally (Robert Kennedy Jr., as Secretary of Health and Human Services) and statewide (Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo).”

This turned out to be spectacularly predictive. In September, Ladapo announced the lifting of all vaccine mandates for schoolchildren, denouncing them as “slavery.” Now Florida health experts fear a rise in instances of childhood diseases, in particular measles, cases of which are increasing in the state.

As though destroying defenses against childhood diseases and epidemics was insufficient, in May the state of Florida decided to wage war against dental hygiene by banning the addition of decay-preventing fluoride in community water, a move that was preceded by the Board of Commissioners of Collier County in February 2024.

When it came to the state legislature,

“Once again DeSantis will be ruling over a subservient, super-majority legislature that will likely do his bidding on all things with the exception of paving over state parks.”

However,

“There’s less incentive to follow the DeSantis ‘line,’ whatever that may be in the coming year but that doesn’t mean they won’t follow a basically Make America Great Again (MAGA) ideology.”

That prediction plays out every day. But another prediction has already come true:

“Of course, Trump will take no responsibility for any of this. He will no doubt blame the weakened Democrats and ‘far left Marxist radicals’ for any problems he causes. If the past is prologue, Fox News and the MAGA faithful will buy it.”

Unexpected—and inspiring

The Paradise Progressive did not cover or make predictions in the off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia, New Jersey or the mayoral race in New York City. However, those elections proved to be stunning repudiations of Trump rule and the MAGA program even though he frantically denied that he was on the ballot and blamed the debacle on the government shutdown and lack of Republican fervor.

Nor did the repudiations occur only in those major races. Across the country, in towns, cities and counties that held elections there was a marked shift away from Trumpism and the Republican Party in what amounted to a blue wave.

The Paradise Progressive also did not anticipate the resistance to tyranny, the grassroots organizing and popular outrage that led to national “Hands Off” and “No Kings” protests that attracted progressively larger and larger crowds.

Just how impressive this development was could be seen in Naples, Fla., an otherwise deeply Trumpist town, where each event brought out more and more people in what amounted to a massive turnout for the area—and throughout Southwest Florida in places not otherwise known for their activism, like Port Charlotte and Sanibel.

But while enormous crowds turned out in major cities, perhaps the most impressive demonstration occurred in rural Okeechobee, Fla., far from large gatherings or other “No Kings” protests. There, Linda Winner, a grandmother who had never demonstrated in any protest throughout her 76 years took a stand.

“I grew up in the ‘60s and ‘70s watching all the protests, and so I said, if I’m ever going to do it, it better be now, I might not get another chance,” she told reporter Eileen Kelley of WGCU. So she stood alone on a street corner for three hours holding a “no kings” sign,

She explained her action to her son in North Carolina, who disagreed with her. “I called him to confirm that he knew that his mother loved America, to make sure that he understood that my protest today was not because I didn’t love America, but because I did,” she said.

Standing on her street corner she received a few fingers from passing motorists but also a lot of support and was treated to a free lunch at a nearby restaurant.

When the Linda Winners of the country take to the streets alone to fight dictatorship it shows that Americans still value democracy, freedom and are willing to resist—at all levels, in all places and at all ages. When they do that Americans might just all be winners.

What will this mean in the coming year?

That is something which it will take an entirely different essay to examine. But that the examination will be made at the beginning of 2026 is one prophecy almost certain to come true.

*Linda Winner takes her lone stand for democracy in Okeechobee, Fla., on “No Kings” day, Oct 18, 2025. (Photo: WGCU/Eileen Kelley)*

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Breakfast table battle: Brazil and Bolsonaro, America and Trump, and the squeezing of Florida

Sept. 16, 2025 by David Silverberg

Your breakfast table is now a battlefield.

Your morning coffee and your orange juice are the weapons.

Taste them, savor them, pay attention to their flavors and subtleties and enjoy them to the fullest because they’re going to be taxed, perhaps beyond what you’re willing to pay for them in the future. What was once ordinary and routine is about to become rare and precious.

And all this is because President Donald Trump is trying to reverse a just judgment against a coup plotter, insurrectionist and would-be dictator in a land far away.

Last Thursday, Sept. 11, while Americans memorialized the terrorist attacks of 24 years ago, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court found Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former president, guilty of plotting a military coup to overthrow Brazil’s democratic government.

He was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison. The likelihood is that Bolsonaro will have to serve his time—the Brazilians aren’t kidding around.

Their judgment is informed by a 21-year experience of military dictatorship. They know what it means to be governed autocratically and to lose their freedoms. So when a politician plots to overthrow a democratically-elected government and sends a mob to destroy the legislative branch of government, they know that they have to respond firmly and decisively. The guilty party has to be punished fully because nothing else will preserve the rule of law, the Constitution and democracy.

Bolsonaro closely imitated Donald Trump in numerous ways.

His fate holds important lessons for the United States and for democracies that seek to defend themselves from demagogic authoritarianism. In this affair there are warnings—and especially lessons—for Americans.

As important, all Americans, including those living in Southwest Florida, are going to feel the effects of this battle.

The ‘Tropical Trump’

*Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump share a moment in the White House during a meeting on March 19, 2019. (Photo: Isac Nóbrega, Wikimedia Commons)*

Bolsonaro was dubbed the “Tropical Trump,” a politician who took his cues from Donald Trump in both his election campaigns and governing. He was a demagogic, extremist populist campaigner and president who used insults and personal attacks both on the stump and through social media. He dismissed critical press coverage as “fake news.” He promised to “drain the swamp” of Brazilian politics.

Bolsonaro served as president from 2019 to 2023. In contrast to Trump he’d had a lengthy career in electoral politics before assuming the presidency. In 1990 after serving in the military he was elected to the city council of Rio de Janeiro and then to the Chamber of Deputies, the Brazilian House of Representatives. He served there for 27 years and became known for his conservatism. In 2018 he ran for president on a very Trump-like platform and won.

When he took office, Bolsonaro had to immediately deal with an economic crisis, which he did by favoring laissez fare economic solutions. He also rolled back protections for indigenous people and their lands and most notoriously stripped environmental protections from the Amazon rainforest in favor of agribusinesses.

He also advocated removing police restrictions to fight the country’s high crime rate. “A policeman who doesn’t kill isn’t a policeman,” he said while campaigning. In a country that had one of the highest rates of police killings in the world, he wanted greater lethality and defended the use of torture.

Once elected, Brazilian crime rates fell and the economy slowly recovered. But then, like Trump, Bolsonaro was hit with a curve ball: the COVID-19 pandemic.

Like Trump, Bolsonaro initially dismissed the disease, calling it “a little flu” and belittling media warnings as “hysteria.”

But as in the United States, COVID struck hard in Brazil. As in the United States voters didn’t forget. And like Trump, Bolsonaro paid the price when those voters went to the polls.

In the United States, Trump lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden. Unwilling to accept the results, on Jan. 6, 2021Trump incited his followers to attack the United States Capitol, overturn the election and lynch Vice President Mike Pence, when he wouldn’t de-certify the results as Trump wanted. After several hours of inaction by Trump, the insurrection was suppressed by police and National Guard troops.

*Rioters storm the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.*

In Brazil, Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election to the progressive, trade-unionist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, universally known as Lula. Like Trump, Bolsonaro refused to accept the results and on Jan. 8, 2023 a pro-Bolsonaro mob stormed government buildings in the capital, Brasilia, demanding that Lula be deposed and a military coup be staged. Unlike Trump, Bolsonaro wasn’t in the capital—he was in Orlando, Florida, where he’d gone to avoid Lula’s inauguration.

*Rioters storm government buildings in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023. (Photo: TVBrasilGov)*

In the United States Trump faced condemnation and impeachment but was not removed from office and did not face any criminal charges or punishment for his role despite a detailed congressional investigation.

In Brazil, however, Bolsonaro was investigated and in November 2024 was indicted for attempting to mount a coup. He was charged in February 2025, placed under house arrest in August for violating court rules and tried in the Supreme Federal Court beginning on Sept. 2.

Last Thursday, Sept. 11, he was found guilty and sentenced to 27 years and 3 months (327 months) in prison.

Protecting the protégé

Having retaken the US presidency, Trump is actively trying to protect his Brazilian protégé using the full resources of the United States.

On July 31, Trump signed an executive order imposing 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods and declaring a national emergency regarding the country.

“The Order finds that the Government of Brazil’s politically motivated persecution, intimidation, harassment, censorship, and prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and thousands of his supporters are serious human rights abuses that have undermined the rule of law in Brazil,” it stated.

“By imposing these tariffs to address the Government of Brazil’s reckless actions, President Trump is protecting the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States from a foreign threat,” it stated.

The order declared that Brazilian court orders were tyrannical and arbitrary and charged that Brazil had tried to extort and coerce US companies into censoring free speech. It ordered revocation of the Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Morae’s visa to the United States and any issued to his family.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio added his own imprecations on the day Bolsonaro was found guilty.

“The political persecutions by sanctioned human rights abuser Alexandre de Moraes continue, as he and others on Brazil’s supreme court have unjustly ruled to imprison former President Jair Bolsonaro,” Rubio stated on X. “The United States will respond accordingly to this witch hunt.”

Of course, Trump is willing to go further. On Wednesday, Sept. 10, the day before Bolsonaro’s verdict and sentencing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that “I can tell you this is a priority for the administration and the president is unafraid to use the economic might, the military might, of the United States to protect free speech around the world.” The comments were taken as a possible military threat against Brazil.

Defiance and costs

*President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and First Lady Rosângela Lula da Silva arrive in Brasilia for his 2023 presidential inauguration. (Photo: Gov. of Brazil)*

Brazilian authorities are defiant in the face of Trump’s threats.

“A president of one country cannot interfere in the sovereign decisions of another country. If he chooses to take further action, that’s his problem. We will respond as measures are taken,” Lula told a local television station.

“Threats like the one made today by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement that attacks Brazilian authority and ignores the facts and compelling evidence in the case files, will not intimidate our democracy,” Brazil’s foreign office said on X.

The potential impact of the dispute on US-Brazilian trade could be considerable. Last year trade between the two countries was worth an estimated $127.6 billion, according to the US Trade Representative. What is more, the US runs a surplus, with exports worth $49 billion and imports worth $42.3 billion and until now that surplus was growing. The US exports aircraft parts, refined oil, and gas turbines to Brazil and Brazil exports crude oil, coffee, unfinished iron and beef to the United States.

Analysis: The experience of dictatorship

The Brazilian government’s stance against Bolsonaro’s attempted insurrection and coup is informed by some harsh history in the tropical nation.

On April 1, 1964, Brazil’s top military commanders launched a coup against Brazilian President João Goulart and the parliamentary republic he headed, which they alleged was heading in a communistic direction. They established a military dictatorship that engaged in all the abuses for which dictatorships are known: extrajudicial disappearances, use of torture, media censorship and suspension of due process, among other crimes.

At first tentative, as the years went on the dictatorship became harder, deeper and more intrusive. The Constitution was suspended, Congress and state legislatures were dissolved and the civilian justice system was replaced with a military one that was more repressive, arbitrary and merciless. The dictatorship reached down into everyday life, into the school system, the humanities and the arts.

Brazil’s dictatorship lasted 21 years, until 1985. Despite its early fiscal successes and an economic “Brazilian miracle,” it ultimately collapsed amidst economic stress, inflation and popular demand for a return to democracy. In 1985 an election was held to select a new president. A new, democratic Constitution was approved in 1988.

It is this dictatorship that Brazilians remember as they protect their democratic government and Constitution. They know what dictatorship means in a way that Americans, who have never experienced one, do not. It gives an urgency and determination to their administration of justice and prosecution of Bolsonaro. It also makes it likely that he will actually have to pay the penalty for his duly established crimes.

By contrast, in the United States, Trump was impeached for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection but never removed or criminally prosecuted. Without a historical memory of loss of democracy and freedom, American politicians presumed that after 2021 Trump was neutralized and no further effort was required to defend democracy. Clearly they were wrong.

Now, in addition to assaulting democracy, due process, civilian control and the Constitution, Trump is attempting to undermine democracy in a democratic Brazil and defend a rogue president who assaulted the nation’s fundamental institutions in the same way he himself did in the United States.

The United States has played an intrusive and sometimes contradictory role in Brazil. It supported the coup and its plotters in 1964. Brazilians fought back and at one point the US ambassador was kidnapped by resistance fighters but released unharmed. Then, in the mid-1970s the United States, under President Jimmy Carter, condemned human rights abuses and suspended military aid.

The current situation harkens back to the bad old Cold War days of covert American interference in the sovereign, independent processes of otherwise democratic states. Only now, instead of defending American democracy against communism, Trump’s regime is overtly and blatantly trying to protect a convicted criminal, would-be dictator and, arguably a traitor against the application of justice in his own country—and Trump is no doubt fearful of a similar fate in his own case.

Commentary: The breakfast battle

So why should Americans—and specifically Floridians—care what happens in a land far away?

Actually, everyday Americans will feel the pain of this trade war and pay its price—and they’ll feel it every single morning.

That’s because when it comes to coffee, the United States gets 35 percent of its coffee from Brazil, the largest portion of all the coffee that comes in from Latin America. (Colombia comes in second, with about 27 percent of US coffee imports.)

From the moment that Trump first announced tariffs on coffee in April, exporters and people knew that the cost of coffee was going to rise precipitously.

“If Brazilian coffee suddenly becomes 50% more expensive in the US, roasters will have little choice but to look elsewhere. But none have the scale, pricing consistency, or logistical muscle of Brazil. This could lead to shortages and price hikes, not just in the US, but globally,” warned Sarah Charles, writing for the trade website Coffee Intelligence.

But the impact on coffee is as nothing compared to the impact of Trump’s tariffs on orange juice—because Brazil provides over half of US orange juice.

Trump’s tariff is likely to drive the price of retail orange juice up by double digits. Ironically, this is likely to badly affect the Florida citrus industry, already declining because of citrus greening, migrant worker crackdowns and hurricane damage. Indeed, as Florida production has declined, the middle processing and distribution companies have become more dependent on Brazilian imports.

With all orange juice prices set to rise because of the tariffs and a likely decline in demand as a result, purchase of Florida’s orange products will also fall. The new punitive tariffs will also decrease processing companies’ profits and disrupt the supply chain.

When Trump first announced tariffs in April, Brazilian orange juice was exempted. However, now that he’s specifically targeting Brazil for political reasons, those exemptions are off the table, unless he changes his mind again.

There is a real possibility that the addition of Trump’s trade war on Brazil, coming on top of all its other woes, will bring Florida’s citrus industry to an end.

But for the everyday American, it’s in the two most common breakfast staples that Americans will feel the most immediate pain of Trump’s Brazilian tariff tantrum. After a century of promoting orange juice as a refreshing and healthful way to start the morning, orange juice may be priced out of reach. Those office coffee breaks that everyone took for granted may be a thing of the past, along with the stereotypical office coffee pot sitting on the burner all day reducing the liquid inside to a caffeinated sludge.

Coffee has been a politically-charged beverage throughout American history. In 1773 following the Boston Tea Party and protests against an English tea tax (which was a tariff), Americans switched to coffee in a show of patriotic protest. The change held and Americans have been coffee drinkers ever since.

Now a domineering president has unilaterally put a new tariff on coffee as well as other vital imports in an effort to protect and defend a fellow insurrectionist and would-be dictator against his own people’s justice and democracy.

One of the key complaints against King George III in the Declaration of Independence was that he was “cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world” and imposing taxes without the peoples’ consent.

Perhaps it’s time for another protest against an unfair, unrepresentative and damaging tariff imposed by fiat, for, as the Declaration of Independence put it: “A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”

Just remember that as you drink your next morning orange juice and down your breakfast cup of coffee.

On a personal note: Doing business with dictators

I first became aware of Brazilian trade issues when I worked as the international trade reporter for the newspaper Defense News.

In that capacity I made the acquaintance of José Luis Whitaker Ribeiro at a trade conference.

Ribiero was chief executive officer of the giant Brazilian firm, Engesa. In the days before e-mail, we would communicate by fax. He was always prompt in responding, was always on the record, never held back, and provided a revealing and often humorously sarcastic insight into his business and his competitors. In other words, a perfect source.

An engineer, he and colleagues had founded Engesa to manufacture oil equipment in 1958. When the United States embargoed military supplies to the Brazilian dictatorship under President Jimmy Carter, Engesa began producing equipment for the Brazilian military.

But Engesa’s biggest boost came in 1979 when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. Engesa became a major supplier to the Iraqi military and its business boomed as it churned out tough, reliable, easily operated military vehicles. It even began developing its own main battle tank, which required a major investment.

The Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988 and Engesa presented Hussein with the bill, which was considerable.

And, as Ribeiro told me, Hussein simply decided not to pay. He just didn’t feel like it. He casually refused to do it. There was no collection agency in the world that could make him.

Engesa’s business collapsed. It would never recoup its investments. It wouldn’t be paid the billions it was owed. In 1993 it declared bankruptcy.

That experience provides yet another insight into the nature of dictatorships, wherever they’re located. No matter how much contractors, corporations and related parasites may believe they’re going to profit from a dictatorship, there’s a lesson to be learned.

That lesson: Dictators don’t pay their bills.

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Driving the wedge: Florida’s anti-vaxx mandate ban is giant opportunity for Democrats – Updated

*Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo announces that Florida will be the first state in the nation to abolish all vaccine mandates. (Image: YouTube/News4JAX)*

Sept. 8, 2025 by David Silverberg

Updated 10:30 am with Joseph Ladapo comments to CNN and David Jolly statement.

The decision announced on Wednesday, Sept. 3, by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo to end all vaccination mandates in Florida hands Democratic candidates an enormous opportunity in next year’s elections.

It’s a classic wedge issue, one liable to split the opposition party.

While memories of dangers and uncertainty from a deadly pandemic are still fresh, DeSantis and Ladapo deliberately introduced a new vulnerability that hits every single Florida home.

By banning all vaccination mandates they’re threatening every child going to school in the state—every single one. They’re alarming parents. They’re menacing seniors. They’re defying science. They’re outraging doctors. They’re hurting the economy. They’re also risking Florida’s tourism and hospitality industry, which is already reeling from President Donald Trump’s international bullying, insults and tariffs.

It’s a situation that’s damaging, unsustainable and needs to be corrected at the polls—but they’ve provided the means to do that.

The announcement

The announcement was delivered by Ladapo at Grace Christian School in Valrico, Florida near Brandon, before an enthusiastically supportive audience. Also speaking at the event were DeSantis, first lady Casey DeSantis, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and Florida Education Commissioner Anastasios Kamoutsas.

Ladapo was impassioned, insistent and fervent in his six-minute address. He built his case against vaccine mandates on moral and ethical grounds.

He was emphatic that the decision applied to every mandate, every requirement that schoolchildren be vaccinated, and repeated the phrase “all of them” four times and “every last one of them” three times.

“Every last one of them is wrong and drips with disdain and, and, slavery, okay?” he said, emotionally. “Who am I as a government or anyone else? Or who am I as a man standing here now to tell you what you should put in your body?”

He continued: “I don’t have that right. Your body, your body is a gift from God. What you put into your body, what you put into your body is because of your relationship with your body and your God. I don’t have that right. Government does not have that right.”

While states had convinced people that they had the right to mandate vaccines, they do not, he said. “They do not have the right. Do not give it to them. Take it away from them. And we’re going to be starting that here in Florida.”

People should make their own decisions, he argued. “You don’t want to put whatever vaccines in your body, God bless you and I hope you make an informed decision. And that’s how it should be. That is, that is a moral ethical universe, not this nonsense where people who don’t know you are telling you what to put in your temple, the temple of your body. That is a gift from God. They don’t have that right.”

He thanked Florida lawmakers for supporting this position. He also noted that people regretted having taken the COVID-19 vaccine and wished they could undo it. Moreover, “…if we want to move toward a perfect world, a better world, you can’t do it by enslaving people in terrible philosophies and taking away people’s freedoms.”

Then he reiterated that all vaccine mandates in Florida “are going to be gone for sure” and said that DeSantis and the legislature would “get rid of the rest of it.”

“We need to end it,” he stated emphatically. “It’s the right thing to do and it’ll be wonderful for Florida to be the first state to do it.”

(A link to the full video is at the end of this article.)

In a CNN interview on Sunday morning, Sept. 7, Ladapo admitted that there had been no data review or research prior to his call for ending mandates.

“Absolutely not,” Ladapo told Jake Tapper, when asked if there had been any research done. “ … There’s this conflation of the science and, sort of, what is the right and wrong thing to do.”

He continued: “This is an issue, very clearly, of parents’ rights. So, do I need to analyze whether it’s appropriate for parents to be able to decide what’s appropriate to go into their child’s bodies? I don’t need to do an analysis on that,” Ladapo said.

*Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis takes the stage after Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo to address the crowd at Grace Christian School.* *(Image: YouTube/News4JAX)*

The political reaction

Republican politicians were split. Those who didn’t enthusiastically endorse the ban expressed their reservations with faint praise and a lack of enthusiasm, although none condemned it outright.

On the non-committal side, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), long an antagonist of DeSantis, told Marc Caputo of the news site Axios that “Florida already has a good system that allows families to opt out based on religious and personal beliefs, which balances our children’s health and parents’ rights.”

Another Republican, state Sen. Don Gaetz (R-1-Pensacola) was tepid: “If the surgeon general has valid and reliable evidence challenging the efficacy of certain vaccinations then of course I am open to his proposal,” Gaetz said in a statement to the Florida Phoenix. “As a layman, I also hope to hear from medical authorities.”

In contrast, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), was enthusiastic, telling the conservative cable channel Newsmax: “They don’t call us the free state of Florida for nothing. One of the things I think stood out about our state during the last years, especially when we were dealing with [COVID-19], was that we pushed back and made sure that we were giving reasoned analysis throughout that time period and making sure that people knew we as state leaders understood our limits, that we respected individuals’ rights,” she said.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), who is running for governor with Trump’s endorsement, was immediately enthusiastic about ending the mandates. Throughout the COVID pandemic, he was an opponent of masking, social distancing and vaccine mandates. (Of note: Donalds himself contracted COVID and had to quarantine.)

“I believe parents should be empowered to make vaccination decisions for their children,” he posted on X, immediately after the announcement. Of course, he effusively praised Trump: “President Trump has done a great job bringing the MAHA [Make America Healthy Again] conversation forward.”

He also made sure to praise Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. prior to his Senate testimony: “[Secretary Kennedy] is doing a great job. He is dismantling bureaucracy. He is eliminating corruption. He is Making America Healthy Again. We are undergoing a health revolution thanks to his leadership & I wish him all the best tomorrow in [the Senate Finance Committee].”

His primary opponent for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Paul Renner, former Speaker of the Florida House, fell into the non-committal category: “As Speaker, I opposed mandatory COVID vaccines and supported strong parental rights legislation. Parents should not be forced to have their children take a vaccine that they think is unsafe. However, we should have safe and effective vaccines that save lives.”

In stark contrast to the Republicans, Democrats were immediate and outspoken in their condemnation of banning mandates.

“The DeSantis Administration’s decision to end vaccine requirements will result in the deaths of thousands of Floridians,” Democratic Party Chair Nichole (Nikki) Fried declared in a statement. “Today’s announcement is yet another morally bankrupt play that will make our communities less safe, all while Republicans are kicking 2 million Floridians off their healthcare.”

Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-24-Fla.) called for Ladapo’s firing: “Are we losing our minds? This is getting ridiculous and pathetic. Are we trying to kill millions of innocent children? Childhood vaccines save lives. Abolishing them is insanity.”

In a Tallahassee press conference Democratic state senators blasted the ban.

Sen. Lori Berman (D-26-Boynton Beach), the Democratic Senate leader, call the ban “ridiculous” and “dangerous, anti-science, and anti-child,” adding, “Nobody wants to go back to the days of iron lungs.”

Sen. Tina Polsky (D-30-Boca Raton) noted her 2023 opposition to confirming Ladapo and said “He remains determined to prioritize political dogma over smart health decisions.”

Sen. Shevrin Jones (D-34-Miami Gardens) called the move “reckless” and accused the DeSantis administration of “actively undermining public health.”

David Jolly, the Democratic candidate for governor, called for Ladapo’s firing.

“Our surgeon general should be fired—today,” Jolly said in a 1-minute, 21-second video posted on X. “The good news is that Florida’s next governor gets to do that and I will do that on my very first day in office.” He called on the governor and legislature to stop the plan to lift the mandates and on his Republican opponents to condemn it as well and support vaccines.

He warned that parents are thinking of keeping their children home from school for fear of infection.

He also warned that “we have a raw ignorance infecting our politics today. It is time to embrace science and health and yes, vaccines.”

*Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly. (Image: Campaign)*

Analysis: Wielding the wedge

The big bet that DeSantis and Ladapo have made is that more Floridians will favor lifting mandates than maintaining them.

In this they listened to the extreme anti-vaxxers in Florida and in the Trump regime, most notably Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Both DeSantis and Ladapo have long been anti-vaxxers, as evidenced during the COVID pandemic. They opposed public health measures at the time and moved to abolish other health mandates. (It merits noting that DeSantis privately received the vaccine and disappeared from the public for two weeks in 2022 when he was rumored to have caught COVID.)

Given Kennedy’s all-out assault on vaccines and the scientific institutions that evaluate and administer them, like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health, DeSantis and Ladapo no doubt believed they were currying favor with Trump himself.

Moreover, they were carrying forward the COVID-era anti-vaccine movement. Certainly that anti-scientific sentiment was in evidence from their immediate audience at the Grace Christian School, which cheered and applauded. In their bubble they no doubt expect overwhelming support and agreement and they may think that this base can swing the 2026 election in their preferred direction.

But just as the medical data doesn’t support the assault on vaccines, so the polling data doesn’t support the opposition to them.

In a bit of remarkable timing, the KFF (formerly the Kaiser Family Foundation) and the Washington Post newspaper conducted a survey of Floridians’ attitudes toward vaccines in July and August.

The survey found that 82 percent of the Floridians in the sample (of 2,716 people nationwide) favored requiring vaccines for measles and polio (while allowing some health and religious exemptions), with only 17 percent of respondents opposing them.

This tracked with the national results, which found that 81 percent of all respondents favored school vaccine mandates and only 18 percent opposed them. (One percent of the respondents skipped the question.)

*Results of a KFF-Washington Post poll on attitudes toward vaccine mandates. (Chart: KFF, Washington Post)*

These results indicate that Floridians as a whole are unlikely to favor the DeSantis/Ladapo vaccine mandate ban as its full consequences sink in.

In fact, it appears that DeSantis and Ladapo have handed the Democrats a precious wedge issue, one so emotionally fraught and divisive that it could split Republican voters to break for sensible, science-based Democratic candidates who care about their survival and that of their children. After all, this is a matter of life and death—and Florida has been through it before.

Democratic messaging should emphasize the threat that DeSantis and Ladapo have posed to Floridians’ kids, themselves and the state and it should be pounded home again and again and again, in every speech, statement and advertisement.

It’s as though DeSantis and Ladapo have put an iron wedge in an otherwise seemingly solid log and handed Democrats a sledgehammer to hit it.

It should be pounded hard, loud and continuously until that log splits.

Then Democrats should light a fire with the kindling—and make sure it burns hot.

To see the entire 6-minute, 13-second speech by Dr. Joseph Ladapo announcing the ending of vaccine mandates in Florida, click here.

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Collier County ‘Bill of Rights Sanctuary’ law could be lifeline for Alligator Alcatraz detainees

*The ordinance establishing Collier County as a Sanctuary County.*

Aug. 21, 2025 by David Silverberg

State and federal actions at the Alligator Alcatraz detention and deportation camp that violate the US Constitution’s Bill of Rights could be nullified under Collier County’s “Bill of Rights Sanctuary County” ordinance, since the camp is in Collier County, Florida.

Violators of these rights can be personally held liable in civil litigation under the ordinance.

This may present a lifeline to detainees and a possible avenue of release for their attorneys to pursue.

The camp is intended as a holding facility for undocumented migrants seized in roundups prior to their deportation. It faces growing opposition from local residents, religious leaders, the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida and environmentalists. (For more on the camp see: “Straight outta Dachau: Past lessons and potential futures for ‘Alligator Alcatraz’.”)

The venue argument

On Monday, Aug. 18, Judge Rodolfo Ruiz of the US District Court in the Southern District of Florida ruled that the proper venue for resolution of a lawsuit regarding Alligator Alcatraz was in the Middle District of Florida.

Prior to that, lawyers for detainees being held in the camp had filed their lawsuit in the Southern District of Florida, which covers Miami-Dade County since the site sits on the boundaries of Collier and Miami-Dade counties and the facility was previously run by Miami-Dade County.

(The lawsuit brought by the detainees’ lawyer named Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem as defendant and charged that authorities at Alligator Alcatraz had denied detainees their First and Fifth amendment rights by blocking and impeding access to counsel.)

*The Southern District of Florida, comprised of Broward, Dade, Highlands, Indian River, Martin, Monroe, Okeechobee, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie counties. (Map: US District Court)*

However, the state, which established the camp and opened it on July 1, argued that the camp’s proper address was Ochopee, Florida, which is in Collier County.

(The camp sits on the 39-acre site of what was the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport. Two thirds of it is in Collier County, although the training facility was run by Miami-Dade County. Its precise coordinates are: 25°51′42″N 080°53′49″W.)

State lawyers argued that because it was in Collier County, the proper venue for any litigation was in the Middle District of Florida, which includes that county.

*The Middle District of Florida, comprised of* Baker, Bradford, Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, De Soto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, St. Johns, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter, Suwannee, Union, and Volusia counties. (Map: US District Court)

In his ruling, Ruiz agreed, officially establishing Collier County as the location of the camp. (The full text of the 47-page ruling is available for reading and download below.)

Collier County is a ‘Bill of Rights Sanctuary county’

On Aug. 22, 2023, by a vote of 4 to 1, the Collier County Board of Commissioners passed an ordinance declaring the county to be “a Bill of Rights Sanctuary County.”

(The full text of the ordinance is available for viewing and download at the end of this article.)

“Collier County has the right to be free from the commanding hand of the federal government and has the right to refuse to cooperate with federal government officials in response to unconstitutional federal government measures, and to proclaim a Bill of Rights Sanctuary for law-abiding citizens in its County,” states the ordinance.

It defines an “unlawful act” as “Any federal act, law, order, rule, or regulation, which violates or unreasonably restricts, impedes, or impinges upon an individual’s Constitutional rights including, but not limited to, those enumerated in Amendments 1 through 10 to the United States Constitution.”

Further, it states: “Any such ‘Unlawful Act’ is invalid in Collier County and shall not be recognized by Collier County, and shall be considered null, void and of no effect in Collier County, Florida.”

The ordinance defines penalties for violations in Section Five: “Anyone within the jurisdiction of Collier County, Florida, accused of being in violation of this ordinance may be sued in Circuit Court for declaratory and injunctive relief, damages and attorneys’ fees.”

Of note: The ordinance specifically states that “anyone” in the county may be sued if they violate a person’s constitutional rights.

Analysis: Possible implications

Because Collier County is a “Bill of Rights Sanctuary” county, Alligator Alcatraz detainees may have standing to sue the US government for violation of their constitutional rights.

What is more, their guards and the operators of the camp may be personally liable for any constitutional violations under the same ordinance.

Further, county employees, officials and law enforcement officers are prohibited from aiding, assisting or abetting federal Alligator Alcatraz activities if those activities are determined to violate constitutional rights.

Detainee lawsuits under the county ordinance—and the ordinance itself—could pause or halt transfers into the camp and force due process adherence and proper treatment. It could also be the basis for an injunction stopping the camp’s operations. (The camp is already under an injunction prohibiting construction and infrastructure expansion. This injunction is set to expire today, Aug. 21.)

The county ordinance has never been applied or tested in court. During the debate preceding its passage, opponents argued that it was unconstitutional on its face. Nonetheless, the Collier County Board of Commissioners passed it.

Environmental lawsuit

A different lawsuit filed by Friends of the Everglades, the Center for Biological Diversity and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida is currently ongoing and has venue issues similar to the one ruled on by Judge Ruiz.

That lawsuit was filed in US District Court in Miami on June 27. It named the heads of the US Department of Homeland Security, its US Immigration and Customs Enforcement directorate, the Florida Division of Emergency Management and Miami-Dade County as defendants.

To read The Paradise Progressive’s previous coverage of the Collier County sanctuary ordinance’s passage and the concept of sanctuary in general, click here.

Click the button below to read and download the full, 6-page Collier County Bill of Rights Sanctuary Ordinance.

Collier County Ordinance 2023-39 Engrossed FINAL Download

Click the button below to read and download the full 47-page ruling by Judge Rodolfo Ruiz.

08-18-25 Order Dismissing in Part and Transferring Plaintiffs’ Complaint for Improper Venue Download

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Straight outta Dachau: Past lessons and potential futures for ‘Alligator Alcatraz’

*The first detainees arrive by van at Alligator Alcatraz, July 2025. (Image: WINK News)*

*The first detainees arrive by bus at Dachau Concentration Camp, March 1933. (Photo: Bavarian State Archives)*

July 21, 2025 by David Silverberg

“Alligator Alcatraz” is now an established fact in Southwest Florida.

The detention and deportation camp was hastily thrown up in eight days before any opposition could effectively coalesce and blessed by a visit from President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on its opening day, July 1st.

Detainees are being held. Opposition is building.

(Alligator Alcatraz has also attracted other names: Alligator Auschwitz, Gator Gulag, and Gator GITMO, for example. It could also be called the Collier County Concentration Camp. However, this article will use its official designation.)

According to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, speaking at the camp’s opening, the idea for the facility came from her general counsel, James Percival, a Floridian, who called DeSantis and Attorney General James Uthmeier.

As she recounted it, Percival said: “Hey, what do you think about partnering with us on a detention facility that we could put in place that would allow us to bring individuals there?”

*Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier at the site. (Image: AG Office)*

DeSantis and Uthmeier agreed and Alligator Alcatraz was immediately launched.

In its establishment and operations, Alligator Alcatraz bears eerie similarities to the first Nazi concentration camp established in Bavaria, Germany near the town of Dachau (pronounced daa-kau, or ˈdɑːxaʊ/, /-kaʊ/ with a guttural chau in the middle).

The history of Dachau Concentration Camp (its official name) also provides a look into the course of events that Alligator Alcatraz could take.

But Alligator Alcatraz is only 20 days old as of this writing. It may still be stopped or closed.

This essay will look at the lessons of the past, the present dynamics surrounding it and possible futures.

Echoes of the past

Make no mistake: Alligator Alcatraz is a concentration camp. It concentrates people into a single location for detention and processing.

The term “concentration camp” came to be synonymous with murder and extermination after the German camps were liberated by allied forces during World War II. But it didn’t originate with the Nazis and it didn’t initially mean automatic death for those held.

In fact, the term “concentration camp” is British. In 1900, when British forces were locked in a guerrilla war with South African Boers, the British commander, Gen. Herbert Kitchener, conceived of “camps of concentration” for the Boer population. Mostly women and children were herded into these camps to keep them separate and unable to support the guerrillas in the field.

*A British concentration camp during the Boer War. (Photo: UK National Archives)*

While not intended as death camps per se, death was nonetheless the result, with detainees being subject to starvation, disease and abuse. A series of reports and agitation by British activists brought the abuses to light over time. Despite much opposition from politicians who dismissed the reports as what would be called “fake news” today, the population and government in Britain turned against the camps and their abuses and they were ultimately disestablished.

When the Nazis came to power in Germany in 1933 they decided to follow the British model and sought new places to hold opponents, dissidents and dissenters. They settled on the town of Dachau in Bavaria for the first of their camps of concentration.

There are striking similarities between the founding, development and expansion of Alligator Alcatraz and Dachau.

Abandoned facilities:

In the words of Uthmeier, Alligator Alcatraz is on the “virtually abandoned” site of a proposed Jetport whose sole runway was designated the Dade County Training and Transition Airport (even though two-thirds of it is in Collier County).

Dachau Concentration Camp was established on the site of an abandoned munitions factory.

Intended for undesirables:

Uthmeier, when announcing the idea of Alligator Alcatraz in a June 19 X posting stated that the camp was intended for “criminal aliens.” On June 30 Noem stated: “Alligator Alcatraz, and other facilities like it, will give us the capability to lock up some of the worst scumbags who entered our country under the previous administration.” In his remarks after touring the facility on July 1, President Donald Trump said it would hold “some of the most menacing migrants, some of the most vicious people on the planet.”

On March 21, 1933, the Nazi newspaper Voelkischer Beobachter announced the opening of the Dachau Concentration Camp, stating: “All Communists and – as far as it is necessary – functionaries of the Reichsbanner [a pro-democracy paramilitary group] and the Social Democrats who endanger the security of the state will be incarcerated here. This is being done because it is impossible in the long run to accommodate these functionaries in the prisons and it constitutes a heavy burden on the state apparatus. It has been proven impossible to leave these people in liberty as they continue to incite and to cause disorder. These measures have to be used in the interest of the state security and without regard for petty considerations.” This later expanded to include Jews, Romany and prisoners, both civilian and military, from every country conquered by the Nazis.

Increasing the initial estimated number of internees:

In his initial X posting, Uthmeier estimated that Alligator Alcatraz “could house as many as a thousand criminal aliens.” That estimate was rapidly increased to 3,000 and then 5,000.

In 1933 the Voelkischer Beobachter announced that the Dachau Concentration Camp would have “a capacity of 5,000 people.” Over time, however, the numbers increased as the Nazis shipped in more people and the camp expanded. Ultimately, one estimate is that 200,000 people were sent to Dachau during its 12 years of operation.

Inspections and subject to law:

On Thursday, July 3, after the first group of detainees arrived at Alligator Alcatraz, five state Democratic lawmakers tried to visit the facility but were turned away, ostensibly on safety grounds. They filed a lawsuit to force entry, arguing that the denial violated state law.

Two days after its opening, state Sens. Shevrin Jones (D-35-Miami Gardens), Carlos Guillermo Smith (D-17-Orlando), Reps. Anna Eskamani (D-42-Orlando), Michele Rayner (D-62-St. Petersburg), and Angie Nixon (D-13-Jacksonville), attempt to gain access to Alligator Alcatraz but are turned away by state authorities. (Photo: Office of Rep. Anna Eskamani)

On Saturday, July 13, state officials allowed a carefully controlled visit by federal and state lawmakers of both parties. Press was excluded, visitors were not allowed to talk to prisoners and phones and cameras were prohibited. As might be expected, reactions were widely at variance, with Democrats like Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-25-Fla.) calling it “really disturbing, vile conditions” and state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia (R-11-Spring Hill) saying that Democratic rhetoric “did not match the reality.” (Ingoglia was subsequently named state Chief Financial Officer by DeSantis.)

At the start of its operations, Dachau Concentration Camp too was subject to Bavarian law and outside inspection.

Initially, Dachau was not advertised as a murder camp and when reports of prisoner deaths began emerging a month after its opening, Bavarian officials investigated.

Josef Hartinger, an investigator from the Bavarian Ministry of Justice, accompanied by medical examiner Moritz Flamm, visited the camp. Hartinger discovered that three Jewish prisoners had been shot, allegedly for attempting to escape but with wounds indicating executions.

In the following months and subsequent visits—and more deaths, including the suicide of a guard—Hartinger built a case against the camp commandant and his staff. He recommended a prosecution and the murders stopped, at least temporarily.

However, when the case was sent for prosecution and trial, higher authorities declined to pursue it. Hartinger was transferred to a provincial position and survived the war, dying in 1984. Flamm, however, was fired and after two attempts on his life, died under suspicious circumstances in a mental institution in 1934.

These were not the only outside inspections of Dachau Concentration Camp. Members of the International Committee of the Red Cross were granted access in 1935 and 1938. They documented the harsh conditions but with a Nazi-sympathetic vice president, the Committee issued a statement after the second inspection that the camp “is a model of its kind in terms of the way it is built and managed.”

Analysis: Possible futures

*Opponents of Alligator Alcatraz protest at the site on June 22. (Photo: Andrea Melendez/WGCU)*

If Alligator Alcatraz follows the same course as Dachau Concentration Camp, in the days ahead it will expand to hold many more detainees, who will arrive in growing numbers, likely well in excess of the 5,000 projected now. Access to the facility for lawmakers, lawyers and outsiders of all sorts will be progressively limited. Conditions will steadily deteriorate for prisoners and abuses will multiply. There will certainly be deaths, whether from neglect, sickness or mistreatment, deliberate or otherwise. No doubt authorities will try to cover these up.

Further, it will serve as a model for similar concentration camps that other states are already considering establishing.

Most of all, Alligator Alcatraz will increasingly become a permanent facility, instead of the “temporary detention facility” Uthmeier initially promoted.

Opponents of Alligator Alcatraz mobilized against the camp immediately after its announcement. On June 22 they protested outside the entrance along Route 41 on environmental grounds, led in part by Betty Osceola, a longstanding environmental activist and member of the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida, whose sacred lands are close to the camp.

Also lending his voice against the camp is Clyde Butcher, a renowned local photographer specializing in images of the Everglades.

On June 27 the organizations Friends of the Everglades and the Center for Biological Diversity filed a lawsuit against a variety of federal and state individuals and agencies for violating land use and environmental laws. This has now been joined by the Miccosukee Tribe. Although the lawsuit failed to prevent the opening of the camp, it is nonetheless ongoing in US District Court.

Opposition to the camp is building. No doubt one reason state officials and contractors rushed it to completion in eight days was to outrace expected opposition.

Every day new opponents appear as the magnitude, impact and intent of the facility becomes apparent.

Faith leaders are now joining the chorus of opposition.

Catholic Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami and Bishop Frank Dewane of Venice have both denounced the camp. Rabbi Ammos Chorney of Congregation Beth Tikvah in Naples condemned it in a sermon titled “A Fence Around Compassion” that was subsequently posted online. The Interfaith Alliance of Southwest Florida has denounced it in no uncertain terms.

Op-eds and similar denunciations are mounting and the rest of the world is awakening to what Alligator Alcatraz really means.

The goal of the opposition at the moment is to either shut down and/or roll back the facility. As Wasserman Schultz put it following her visit: “There are really disturbing, vile conditions and this place needs to be shut the hell down.”

What are the prospects for closure or rollback?

The environmental lawsuit

Lawsuits take time and the DeSantis administration will no doubt follow the Trump model of delaying any proceeding on any basis for as long as possible. State Attorney General Uthmeier is in charge of the state’s defense and as the face of Alligator Alcatraz he will no doubt vigorously defend it.

Moreover, given that he has already been held in contempt for defying a judge’s order, there’s no assurance that any court ruling would be obeyed or have any effect. Also, given the backing of Trump and DeSantis, a conservative, majority DeSantis-appointed Florida Supreme Court, and a US Supreme Court majority that seems to actively favor a Trump dictatorship, the prospects for judicial relief are dim.

That said, the lawsuit has merit on the facts and law. But it will take time to adjudicate. Meanwhile, detainees will be subject to camp conditions and will be deported, no doubt with questionable due process.

Forces of nature

On the day it opened a seasonal rainstorm flooded the Alligator Alcatraz reception area, as though a precursor of things to come.

*Water covers the floor of the tent where officials spoke for the opening of Alligator Alcatraz. (Photos: TikTok via AnnaforFlorida)*

*Water on the floor of the detention area of Alligator Alcatraz.*

Alligator Alcatraz opened in the midst of Southwest Florida’s wet season when daily afternoon thunderstorms drench the region. More ominously, it is hurricane season, which runs until Nov. 30.

Supposedly, Alligator Alcatraz is built to withstand a Category 2 hurricane (winds of 96 to 110 miles per hour). At the very least that seems questionable. Moreover, the area is subject to much more powerful hurricanes.

There is a precedent for a severe hurricane wreaking havoc on temporary camps in Florida. On Labor Day 1935 a powerful hurricane, later estimated to be a Category 5, struck three Works Progress Administration camps in the Florida keys housing World War I veterans. Some 259 veterans were killed, part of the 400 to 500 people who lost their lives overall. (An excellent account of this is in the book Storm of the Century by Willie Dye, available at the Collier County Public Library.)

There is the very real possibility that Mother Nature herself could wipe Alligator Alcatraz off the face of the earth. It needs to be noted, though, just how awful this possibility is: it could kill the people at the facility, whether guards or prisoners. There is the horrifying prospect of prisoners handcuffed to their beds being helplessly ripped into the air and flung against debris or into the waters surrounding the camp.

Given personnel and budget cuts to the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, there is also no guarantee that Alligator Alcatraz administrators would get accurate warnings with time to prepare—or that they would even make adequate preparations if they were warned.

Cost, crime and corruption

Alligator Alcatraz is expected to cost $450 million to run in its first year, which will be reimbursed at least in part by the federal government.

It is increasingly apparent that the initial phase of Alligator Alcatraz was built using sweetheart deals and favored contractors.

As detailed by The Florida Trident investigative news organization, a primary contractor for Alligator Alcatraz is IRG Global Emergency Management, a company only formed in February. It is an offshoot of Access Restoration Services US, Inc., which has been a major campaign donor to DeSantis and won $108 million in state contracts, mostly awarded by the governor’s office.

Indeed, the Florida Immigration Enforcement Operations Plan, unveiled by DeSantis on May 12, outlined a completely separate Florida immigration authority operating independently of the US federal government. The possibilities for corruption were apparent even then. (See “WARNING! Florida immigration enforcement plan raises ethical questions, ties to border ‘czar,’ and for-profit prison corporations.”)

Could the cost of Alligator Alcatraz or potential crimes associated with its building lead to its shutdown?

This is highly unlikely in Florida where the chief law enforcement officer and prosecutor is Attorney General James Uthmeier and the Chief Financial Officer is Blaise Ingoglia.

They and DeSantis are clearly focused on implementing Trump’s anti-foreigner agenda, not enforcing state contracting laws—and especially not when it comes to their pet project. Nor can any relief or resistance be expected from the state legislature, which is out of session and when in session sought to implement Trump’s program more forcefully than the governor. Nor is there likely to be relief from the US Justice Department under Attorney General Pam Bondi, a Floridian who appears to see her primary role as Trump’s personal attorney.

Analysis: Politics and principle

*President Donald Trump speaks at the opening of Alligator Alcatraz. (Image:* *YouTube*)

Despite the obstacles to shutting down or curbing Alligator Alcatraz by the powers that be, one principle seems to stand out:

Alligator Alcatraz will be closed when it becomes more of a political liability than a political asset.

To appreciate this, one must weigh the facility’s role in the Trump anti-migrant agenda and its political usefulness to Trump, DeSantis, Uthmeier and the rest of the regime.

Trump’s anti-migrant crusade is based on his perception, both genuinely held and vigorously propagated, that undocumented migration constitutes an invasion by immigrants who are “poisoning the blood” of America.

As he put it in his remarks at the Alligator Alcatraz unveiling:

“In the four years before I took office, Joe Biden allowed 21 million people, that’s a minimum—I think it was much higher than that—illegal aliens to invade our country. He invaded our country just like a military would invade. It’s tougher because they don’t wear uniforms. You don’t know who they are, more than the populations of New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and Philadelphia combined. That’s what came into our country. From prisons, from mental institutions, from street gangs, drug dealers. It’s disgusting. This enormous country-destroying invasion has swamped communities nationwide with massive crime, crippling costs, and burdens far beyond what any nation could withstand. No nation could withstand what we did.”

(The figures cited by Trump are erroneous. Credible estimates of undocumented migrants in the United States have never exceeded 12 million. [To the degree that Trump was quoting any kind of source for his figures, he might have transposed the numbers 1 and 2.])

Trump’s rhetoric is strongly reminiscent of Adolf Hitler’s attitude toward outsiders and Jews, as expressed in a Jan. 30, 1939 speech:

“For hundreds of years Germany was good enough to receive these elements, although they possessed nothing except infectious political and physical diseases. What they possess today, they have by a very large extent gained at the cost of the less astute German nation by the most reprehensible manipulations.”

So Trump, DeSantis, Uthmeier and Noem see themselves as part of a great crusade against an alien invasion and Alligator Alcatraz is a key asset in combatting it, a means of instilling fear, punishing detainees—all of whom they characterize as “the worst of the worst” —and inducing self-deportation. It is similar to the Nazis’ early efforts to make Germany “Judenfrei,” Jew-free, before they decided on a “Final Solution” to kill them.

On a partisan basis, Trump appears to be seeking to re-engineer American demographics to eliminate Hispanics both as a population and as an element of Democratic Party strength—and Alligator Alcatraz serves that purpose as well.

However, Alligator Alcatraz also serves more parochial, personal political ends for the participants—and provides them the opportunity for a bit of showmanship.

From its first unveiling, Alligator Alcatraz was characterized as political theater.

“What we saw in our inspection today was a political stunt, dangerous and wasteful,” said Rep. Darren Soto (D-9-Fla.) after touring the facility on July 13. “One can’t help but understand and conclude that this is a total cruel political stunt meant to have a spectacle of political theater and it’s wasting taxpayer dollars and putting our ICE agents, our troops and ICE detainees in jeopardy.”

For DeSantis, Alligator Alcatraz is an asset because it’s a way to show the depth of his commitment to Trump’s anti-foreigner agenda and bring himself back into the president’s good graces, which he lost when he ran for president himself in 2023. It is also in keeping with the anti-foreigner agenda that he has been promoting for the past two years of his governorship. As his rhetoric attests, DeSantis is determined to keep Florida in the front ranks of anti-foreigner, anti-migrant sentiment and activism.

Alligator Alcatraz certainly seemed to have played this role on July 1 when Trump visited for the opening.

“Well, I’d like to just thank everybody for the incredible job they’ve done,” Trump said in leading off his remarks. “I love the state. As you know, Ron and I have had a really great relationship for a long time. We had a little off period for a couple of days, but it didn’t last long. It didn’t last long and we have a lot of respect for each other.”

For at least those few minutes the Trump-DeSantis rift seemed healed. Whether the relationship remains so will be seen in the days ahead but Alligator Alcatraz played its role as a political asset for Ron DeSantis on that day.

Trump also showered praise on Uthmeier when he did his shout-outs to local politicians: “I want to thank Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier. Where is James? Where is he?” Trump found Uthmeier in the crowd. “You do a very good job. I hear good things. I hear good things about you from Ron, too. No, you really do. He’s even a good-looking guy. That guy’s got a future, huh? Good job, James. I hear you did really, really fantastic. Worked hard. You’re like in the construction business for a few days, right? Huh? Congratulations, uh, for all the hard work and to make this facility possible. It’s amazing.”

So Alligator Alcatraz served as an asset for Uthmeier. It brought him to Trump’s attention and gave him a leading role in the anti-migrant movement. If the anti-migrant base remains cohesive and dominant in Florida, it will be an achievement for Uthmeier that will burnish his future prospects whether political or private. It also enhances his role in Trump’s anti-migrant movement and demonstrates his belief in it, whether his belief is genuine or is just for show.

These are powerful reasons for these people to support, sustain and expand Alligator Alcatraz. Those reasons overshadow all the citizen protests, the environmental damage, the religious condemnation, the public disapproval, the historic precedents and any ethical considerations.

Certainly these people are not moved by the suffering of those being held in the facility whom they, along with Trump, seem to regard as subhuman (or untermenschen, in German parlance). Nor do reports of detentions lacking criminal charges and inclusion of legally documented immigrants appear to make any impression on them.

As with Dachau, reports are already seeping out of abysmal conditions at Alligator Alcatraz. There are accounts of excessive heat, overcrowding, overflowing backed-up toilets, short supplies of drinking water, bug-infested inadequate or substandard food, personal uncleanliness, leaking tents, flooded floors and persistent, pervasive swarms of mosquitoes. Even guards are already quitting or being fired and speaking anonymously to the media about the conditions.

A lawsuit filed on July 16 by detainees, their lawyers, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and Americans for Immigrant Justice charges that detainees have been denied access to their lawyers.

“The government has banned in-person legal visitation, any confidential phone or video communication, and confidential exchange of written documents,” according to an ACLU statement. “These restrictions violate the First and Fifth Amendment rights of people being detained, as well as the First Amendment rights of legal service organizations and law firms with clients held at the facility.”

While ostensibly for foreign, criminal migrants, US citizens appear to be imprisoned as well. A 15-year old without a criminal record was held there for three days before being released. Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-10-Fla.) said that during his tour of the facility one detainee called out: “I’m an American citizen!”

Far from responding to the allegations and complaints, DeSantis, Uthmeier and camp supporters are boasting about the camp and publicly displaying their supposed toughness and ruthlessness, in imitation of Trump’s approach. Meanwhile, vendors are gleefully exploiting the camp, selling Alligator Alcatraz merchandise.

Clearly, these people will not be moved by any appeal to humanity, principle, religion, morality or law. So it is only when they perceive that Alligator Alcatraz is harming their political ambitions more than helping them that they will take any action to either alleviate conditions or close the facility altogether.

What form political harm to them takes remains to be seen. One way might be if Alligator Alcatraz becomes a liability in the midterm elections, presuming that these are free, fair and held as scheduled. But for any kind of effective counterpressure to be applied, opponents must coalesce, unite, focus and act effectively.

Another form of pressure might be economic harm to the state of Florida—and specifically Southwest Florida—if tourists boycott its attractions and other countries impose sanctions based on violations of human rights.

Never again?

*An American soldier feeds inmates following Dachau’s liberation. (Photo:* *US National Guard*)

American troops liberated Dachau on April 29, 1945. What they found horrified and shocked them—and the world. Dachau had gone from a detention camp to a mass extermination camp. Corpses were everywhere. Typhus was rampant. Survivors were starving. One American soldier said that at that moment he knew why he was fighting.

When confronted by the Americans, residents of the city of Dachau responded “Was könnten wir tun (What could we do?)?”

It was a response that didn’t sit well with Army Col. William Quinn, who wrote the official US Army report on the camp’s liberation. However, Quinn noted: “If one is to attempt the tremendous task and accept the terrific responsibility of judging a whole town, assessing it en masse as to the collective guilt or innocence of all of its inhabitants for this most hideous of crimes, one would do well to remember the fearsome shadow that hangs over everyone in a state in which crime has been incorporated and called the government.”

It’s an observation that rings hideously true today. Anyone accepting, countenancing or promoting these kinds facilities becomes complicit in their crimes—and that fact shows why individual acts of protest and opposition are so important.

From the revelations of Dachau and the other Nazi concentration camps the world resolved that the kind of criminality and brutality practiced there should never be repeated. Until now it was a basic tenet of Americanism that there should never be concentration camps on American soil, nor were any ever before proposed.

Since the liberation of the Nazi camps and the defeat of Fascism, the civilized world’s watchwords have been: “Never Again.”

Now, with Alligator Alcatraz, Trump, Noem, DeSantis and Uthmeier are saying: “Again.”

It’s up to the people of the world, and especially the citizens of Florida, to resoundingly reply: “Never!”

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

‘Alligator Alcatraz’ is just the start of a state plan to remove immigrants. Will it wreck Florida’s economy?

This article was first published July 1 in The Florida Trident

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis envisions a state run immigration force, complete with its own police force and detention camps, that operates largely outside federal rules. (Immigration and Customs Enforcement)

By David Silverberg

Mega-farmer Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III addresses the camera as massive watermelons come rolling down a conveyor belt at one of his farms in Collier County. Behind him are workers, all of them Hispanic, rapidly picking up the melons and putting them in large bins.

“We’re loading as quickly as we can,” Oakes explains in a video he uploaded to Facebook on April 28. “We couldn’t do that without the help of this amazing team here.”

He continues his praise of immigrant workers, whom he says are superior to the American labor force that used to work his family’s farms.

*Farmer and MAGA supporter Alfie Oakes extols the virtues of immigrant labor (Facebook/Alfie Oakes)*

“They really do so much more of an amazing job than what we call the ‘domestic’ workers that we used to get 30 years ago when I started in this business,” Oakes says. “That’s why we can grow a 500 or 600-acre field and load 40 or 50 semi loads a day because these guys really know how to get it done. They’re true masters of their trade.”

It might be surprising to hear such pro-immigrant talk from Oakes, who is well-known as an ultra-conservative, pro-Donald Trump activist and local Republican kingpin. Trump, after all, has relentlessly attacked immigrants over the past decade, claiming they come from prisons and insane asylums, and has made deporting them en masse a cornerstone of his second term in the White House.

In the video, Oakes, who owns the Seed to Table supermarket in Naples, seems to be telegraphing a plea to Trump and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to leave his business alone in those deportation efforts. He says all the migrants who work for him are documented, but that hasn’t always been the case – in 2014, more than 100 of his employees were arrested for possessing false immigration papers.

Clearly Trump heard the pleas of farmers like Oakes who rely on immigrant labor, as earlier this month he did an abrupt about-face on his mass deportation plans.

“Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,” he wrote June 12 on social media.

After so many years of relentless demonization, Trump was suddenly acknowledging that immigrants – including undocumented workers – have economic value in America. Shortly thereafter he announced the deportation effort would be aimed primarily at America’s cities, the “Democrat Power Center,” as he called it.

*Migrants work at one of Oakes’ farms. (Facebook/Alfie Oakes)*

Trump’s admission only echoed what many economists and immigration experts have been saying all along: Migrant labor, rather than hindering the economy, is actually vital to it.

But there’s been no such concession by Gov. Ron DeSantis, and no sign his mission to make Florida the national leader in rounding up immigrants has lost any steam. “We’re leading,” DeSantis said during a May 12 press conference in Tampa. “I think others really need to do more.”

Florida already has the country’s largest number of local agreements to assist federal deportation, according to ICE, and the governor has even bigger plans. At that same presser DeSantis unveiled his “Immigration Enforcement Operations Plan” detailing his administration’s vision of a new state-run immigration enforcement system to “circumvent federal agency bureaucracy” and essentially operate on its own rules.

The 37-page plan paints a vision of immigrant holding camps where thousands of arrested immigrants would be detained in jails as well as tents and other makeshift facilities (“soft-side detention”) that it specifically notes may be built and run by for-profit prison companies. And it’s all part of the state’s effort to assist “President Trump’s fight against the ‘deep state’ within federal agencies,” according to the plan.

And DeSantis, who didn’t respond to an interview request, has a pot of taxpayer money at his disposal for the effort. In February, he signed a bill into law allocating $298 million in state funds toward the effort, with the money going toward the hiring of 50 law enforcement officers and detention facilities, among other things.

*Uthmeier, center, walks the “Alligator Alcatraz” site with state troopers in his X video. (X/Attorney General James Uthmeier)*

A very dramatic early implementation of the plan is so-called “Alligator Alcatraz” — a detention camp of large tents and trailers in a little-used airport facility located in the environmentally protected Everglades of eastern Collier County expected to hold 3,000 immigrants. The prison is estimated to cost some $450 million annually to run, with funding expected from the Federal Emergency Management Administration.

“There’s not much waiting for [immigrant detainees] but alligators and pythons,” said Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier in a June 19 X post. “There’s nowhere to go, nowhere to hide.”

The controversial project is moving at lightning speed. Its opening is expected today, with a visit to the site from Trump to mark the occasion, but a lawsuit filed against DeSantis by environmental groups on Friday aims to block its opening. “This scheme is not only cruel, it threatens the Everglades ecosystem that state and federal taxpayers have spent billions to protect,” said Eve Samples, executive director of Friends of the Everglades, which filed the lawsuit along with the Center for Biological Diversity.

At the same time, the Trump Administration has systematically removed legal status for well over a million formerly documented immigrants – from countries including Haiti, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua – that will provide human fodder for camps like “Alligator Alcatraz.”

Humanitarian and environmental concerns aside, multiple economic and immigration experts interviewed by the Florida Trident warn that mass sweeps, detentions, and deportations would do to the state’s economy precisely what Oakes fears it would do to his own massive farm operation.

Bring it to ruin.

The need for immigrants

Michael Collins has spent his life in the hospitality industry, doing everything from making beds to running hotels for Hyatt and Wyndham. He’s also interim director of resort and hospitality management at Florida Gulf Coast University’s Lutgert College of Business – and he told the Trident that a major sweep of immigrants in the state would be financially catastrophic.

“Bottom line, our business could not work at full capacity without foreign workers,” he said. “Next time you’re in a restaurant you might have a two hour wait to be seated, if not for them.”

*The Department of Homeland Security, under Kristi Noem, promoted “Alligator Alcatraz” with this AI-generated image. (X/DHSgov)*

Temporary workers in the hospitality industry are covered under H2B visas for non-agricultural workers, giving them permission to work up to three years in the United States. When it comes to Collier County as an example, Collins has a precise count: 661 H2B workers were admitted to the county for the first half of the federal fiscal year, which began in October. Of those, 85 percent were in the food preparation and serving business, while others worked in hotels, personal healthcare, and spas.

“That’s in one county,” Collins pointed out. “Double it up in Lee, Sarasota, and go to the east coast.”

Florida’s iconic citrus industry provides another example of the state’s reliance on immigrant workers, according to Florida Immigrant Coalition spokesman Thomas Kennedy.

“Florida in the 1990s produced 240 million boxes of oranges each year,” said Kennedy, whose coalition represents 83 groups that advocate for immigrants. “This year it’s 12 million. There are issues of land use, a lot of growers leaving the industry, citrus greening disease, hurricanes, the occasional drought, the willingness to make some money by selling land to developers—that’s all happening. But it’s silly to pretend that there isn’t a labor issue. [The growers] talk about the impact of tariffs but they also talk about it being increasingly difficult to find workers that are economically viable for them.”

He noted Florida’s slowing population growth, with more young people moving out of the state and birth rates in decline. “Legal or not legal, any population boost will be from immigration,” Kennedy said.

The response by state lawmakers to the need for more of these workers has been a flurry of proposals to drop restrictions on child labor and expand the hours that school-enrolled students can work part-time jobs. Even though these measures failed in the legislative session, Kennedy said they reflect the strains of an economy in need of workers.

The DeSantis Administration has “no feasible alternative if they went through with their mass deportation effort,” Kennedy said. “The thing they will never do is admit that they need more immigrants in the state.”

When it comes to the broader agricultural sector, Social Security data shows the stereotypical perception that most of the workforce is undocumented is erroneous, according to Fritz Roka, director of FGCU’s Center for Agribusiness. Most migrant agricultural workers are authorized to come into the United States under the H2A visa program, which produced what Roka calls “a radical shift” in the number of documented workers versus undocumented workers after its launch in 1986 under President Ronald Reagan.

Oakes, the Collier County farmer, made the same point in his video.

“All the workers here are H2A workers that come over here on a work visa from Mexico over here for maybe five months,” he said.

Oakes is especially sensitive to this after 105 of his workers were arrested in a 2014 raid by Florida Division of Insurance Fraud. The workers were charged with multiple crimes, including fraudulent documentation, use of personal identification, identity theft and workers’ compensation fraud.

While most of those charged were released on their own recognizance and given probation, he has said that ever since he’s been compliant with H2A and E-Verify, the federal database that tracks worker legal status.

But in the Trump sweeps, holders of legitimate visas and green cards are not immune from arrest, said Fort Myers immigration attorney Indera DeMine. People are being detained when they report for what were once routine meetings with authorities, or at traffic stops, or for lapsed drivers’ licenses, she said, and then transferred from facility to facility so that family and counsel can’t contact them.

“What will we be left with?”

Evidence of an aggressive targeting of workers in Florida is mounting. In Brevard County, ICE agents have raided construction and landscaping crews, according to Fox 35. In the Florida Keys, a roofing company owner (and Trump supporter) wept on camera during an NBC6-Miami interview after ICE took six of his workers, five of whom he said had valid work permits.

*Attorney DeMine (DeMine Immigration Law Firm)*

Like the Keys roofing company case, DeMine said she’s seen instances where documented immigrants are being targeted.

“What we’re seeing is an out-of-control targeting of immigrants, not just the undocumented,” DeMine related. “We’re certainly seeing an uptick in removals and detentions. … If [her clients] didn’t have a criminal history they would be released on their own recognizance, or given probation. Now there’s less discretion.”

While documented workers aren’t being targeted en masse, the Trump Administration has moved the goalposts in its deportation effort by stripping documented status from more than one million immigrants who previously had legal status. The U.S. Supreme Court in May allowed the administration to move more than half a million immigrants here on humanitarian parole from Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua – many of them living in Florida – into the undocumented ranks, making them fair game to be swept up. Just this past Friday, the Trump Administration announced it was stripping temporary protective status for some 500,000 Haitian immigrants, setting them up for round-ups, detention, and deportation back to their home country rife with hunger, crime, and chaos.

*The Trump Administration just paved the way to round up a half million Haitians for deportation. (Immigration and Customs Enforcement)*

Combined with the federal effort, DeMine said she finds the prospect of the governor’s immigration enforcement plan – with its vision of mass roundups and camps run by a largely unregulated state force – nothing short of horrifying both in terms of constitutional rights and the state economy.

“It threatens to strip people of their dignity, due process, and protections afforded under the U.S. Constitution,” she said. “It disregards international human rights standards and puts Florida at risk of becoming a state known for hostility and intolerance.

“What will we be left with? … Healthcare, agriculture, landscaping, hospitality and so many other businesses are so reliant on the immigrant workforce and no one in our government seems to be thinking of that.”

About the author: David Silverberg is a veteran reporter who covered Congress, defense, and homeland security during a 30-year journalism career in Washington D.C. As a freelance writer, his work has been published by Mother Jones, Gulfshore Business, and the Naples Press.

Will this coming Saturday, June 14, be a day of glory—or infamy?

In 1991 President George HW Bush takes the salute of Gen. Norman Schwartzkopf and his generals at the Victory Parade in Washington, DC, celebrating the end of the First Iraq War. (Photo: National Archives/Dan Valdez)

June 10, 2025 by David Silverberg

This coming Saturday, June 14, Flag Day, is a day that may either go down as glorious in American history—or live in infamy. The sun may rise over a democracy and set over a dictatorship.

On that day President Donald Trump is scheduled to review a massive military parade in the nation’s capital celebrating his 79th birthday—and the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States Army. Enormous numbers of military vehicles, personnel and lethal weaponry are being shipped into the District of Columbia, ostensibly for the parade.

“No Kings!” counter demonstrations are scheduled throughout the country and in Washington, DC.

*“No Kings” demonstrations planned around the country for Saturday, June 14. (For a fully interactive map see Axios)*

In Southwest Florida the organization FREE (Freedom, Rights, Equality, Enforcement) Indivisible SWFL has called for a demonstration at the Collier County Court Courthouse at 3315 Tamiami Trail East.

California conflict

As this is written the state of California is in an increasingly bitter battle with President Donald Trump and the federal government.

While there has been shooting so far it has remained non-lethal. However, Trump has ordered 700 active duty Marines to California, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is suing the federal government for nationalizing and deploying 2,000 state National Guardsmen—and, potentially, 2,000 more—without his permission.

The situation is changing hourly and passions are rising fueled by extreme rhetoric on Trump’s part, with X postings that threaten violence (“If they spit, we will hit”) denigrate and insult Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, and threats to have Newsom arrested.

The militarization of Washington

Amidst the heated atmosphere and the sense of crisis, an enormous amount of military hardware is pouring into Washington, ostensibly for the parade.

Military equipment heading into Washington, DC, as photographed by various observers and shared on social media. (Images: Multiple sources)

In May the US Army announced the specific numbers for the weaponry entering the US capital. These include 28 70-ton M1 Abrams tanks, 28 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, 28 Stryker combat vehicles and Paladin artillery systems, totaling 150 vehicles in all. Some 6,700 soldiers, sailors and aviators will be part of the event, which is expected to be attended by as many as 200,000 spectators. Legacy vehicles like World War II-era Sherman tanks and jeeps will participate. US military personnel in period costumes will accompany 34 horses, two mules and a dog. Steel plates are being laid in the streets to accommodate the weight of the vehicles.

Overhead, current aircraft as well as World War II-era aircraft will fly by along with helicopters of different eras. To accommodate this, flights into Washington Reagan Airport have been suspended.

The event is expected to cost between $45 million and $92 million.

There’s no clear date for when all this hardware will return to base, if at all.

Analysis: To what purpose?

In any other time, under any previous president, in a time of unity and consensus, the American people could believe the stated purposes for this deployment of weaponry and personnel: to celebrate the 250th anniversary of a respected and honored institution like the United States Army.

But in a time of crisis, division and especially with an authoritarian, twice-impeached president who is a convicted felon, who incited a previous violent assault on the legislative branch of government and tried to overturn an election, who lies incessantly and has refused to commit to upholding the US Constitution as his oath of office requires, such assurances cannot be taken at face value.

All those military vehicles in Washington and their firepower can easily be turned to purposes other than parading. (And one vehicle carried a graffito saying “Hang Fauci & Bill Gates,” according to The Washington Post.)

Between the Los Angeles protests and deployments, the extreme rhetoric by the president and the sense of crisis that he is deliberately stoking, the moment is strongly reminiscent of Feb. 27, 1933 when a fire broke out in the German Reichstag building. Adolf Hitler, who had taken office as German chancellor precisely four weeks earlier, and his Nazi party blamed the fire on Communists. In that atmosphere of crisis German President Paul von Hindenburg issued an emergency decree suspending civil liberties. A few weeks later, the Reichstag was convinced to pass an “Enabling Act” that suspended checks and balances and gave Hitler dictatorial power for four years. In fact, it was the end of German democracy and the start of the Nazi dictatorship and Hitler’s unrestricted rule.

Between Trump’s rhetoric, the vocal protests, and the anti-democratic provisions of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” the current moment bears discomforting similarities to the past and to every other dictator who has seized power amidst a manufactured crisis.

In Southwest Florida

The logo of the June 14th “No Kings” demonstration in Naples, Fla. (Art: FREE Indivisible)

There isn’t much that people on the ground in a place like Southwest Florida can do to directly intervene in events in Washington or Los Angeles.

If there is an attempt at a coup d’etat the American people can only rely on the military personnel who serve and protect them to refuse any illegal orders and uphold their oaths of enlistment to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”

However, the “No Kings” demonstrations across the country can at least show that the vast majority of Americans are not complicit in any assaults on their democracy and democratic institutions. They can make known that they object to authoritarian actions by this president and his enablers.

In Naples, Fla., these demonstrations have shown that there is a large population of supporters of democracy throughout a region otherwise known for its extreme support of Donald Trump and the Make America Great Again movement. With each demonstration it becomes clear that the population of concerned and outspoken citizens is large and growing.

It’s a dangerous time and it’s not going to get any more peaceful any time soon. At the very least people can raise their voices and refuse to be complicit—especially on this day.

On a personal note:

The most menacing time that I ever saw armed troops in the streets of Washington, DC, was on the afternoon of Sept. 11, 2001.

The terrorist attacks had occurred that morning.

At the time I was managing editor of The Hill, a weekly newspaper covering Congress and had stayed at my post in a building near the White House, working to get out the next day’s newspaper, which was likely to be the most important one we ever published.

By the late afternoon I had done all I could to finish the newspaper and I left the offices to drive down to our printing plant in Springfield, Va., where the paper would be printed and our staff was gathering. My car was parked in the garage of the Ronald Reagan Building.

The city had been ordered evacuated. Armed police stood at the intersections of streets surrounding the White House, whose perimeter had been expanded several blocks outward and restricted with yellow police tape. The only people on the streets—and there were very few of them—were wearing credentials showing that they were either government staffers, members of the press or were serving in some official capacity.

As I stood on the corner of 14th Street and F Street waiting to cross the road, a convoy of Humvees full of armed and camouflaged soldiers wearing red berets came driving down 14th Street. Even though they didn’t have to, they stopped at a traffic light and were bathed in the warm, golden glow of the lowering sun.

I’d traveled a great deal around the world as a defense reporter and seen militarized capitals. That had never been the case in Washington, DC, which was proud to be an open, free and civil city.

American military parades in the capital had largely been eschewed except for extremely rare occasions like the Iraq War Victory Parade in 1991. On ceremonial occasions like Inauguration Days the military was represented by symbolic contingents of soldiers and never by masses of heavy equipment.

Indeed, when it was suggested to general and later president Dwight Eisenhower that the United States hold military parades like the Soviet Union did in Moscow he is reported by historian Michael Beschloss to have responded: “Absolutely not. We are the pre-eminent power on Earth. For us to try and imitate what the Soviets are doing in Red Square would make us look weak.”

Standing on that street corner on 9/11 and seeing that convoy of soldiers bearing arms in the nation’s capital brought home to me in a way like nothing else that things had changed in America and likely permanently. Of all the sadnesses I felt that day, this was a sadness like nothing else I experienced.

But at least those soldiers were deploying to protect and defend America and Americans.

Let’s all hope that the military parade in Washington, DC on June 14 celebrates the birth of the US Army and salves the ego of the President of the United States—and does nothing more than that.

Liberty lives in light

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!