Guns, germs and storms: The threats to the 2020 elections in Florida and beyond

Voters wait to cast ballots in the Wisconsin presidential primary on April 7.

May 4, 2020 by David Silverberg.

This year, election officials—in Southwest Florida and around the nation—will face threats and challenges unlike any that most Americans have experienced in their lifetimes.

At the same time, never has a clean, efficient and fairly conducted election been more important. The 2020 election will be one of America’s most historic, shaping the nation’s future in as fundamental a way as the very first one in 1788. Given the stakes, the results—however they turn out—must be seen and accepted by all parties as legitimate and accurate.

What is more, Americans tend to think of election cycles as a force of nature, like the orbiting of the planets and the rising of the sun, always taking place as scheduled. Before this year, the only postponed primary in American history that this author could find was the New York mayoral primary scheduled for Sept. 11, 2001. This year, 15 states postponed their presidential preference primaries due to the Coronavirus pandemic.

So it’s essential to look ahead to the challenges that election officials and voters may face and how they’ve faced them, where history provides any guide.

This is not a complete list, by any means. There have always been questions about elections and there’s much potential for mischief in the mechanics of counting and recording votes. However, this year some unique threats stand out.

First, there’s the threat that’s particular to Florida…

Storms

05-04-20 Michael_2018-10-10_1715Z_cropped — Hurricane Michael, 2018

This year Florida will be conducting a critical primary election on Aug. 18. While August is not the depth of Florida’s hurricane season—that comes in September—August, and late August especially, has always been a very active time for hurricanes.

This has been an unusually hot year already, the signs are not good and 12 long-term prognosticators are predicting a highly active hurricane season.

Hurricane Irma struck Southwest Florida in 2017 when there were no elections scheduled. But Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm and the strongest ever to hit Florida, hit the Florida Panhandle on Oct. 10, 2018 just before a general election scheduled for Nov. 6.

That was in the midst of the hotly contested races for Senate between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson and for governor between Ron DeSantis and Andrew Gillum.

With infrastructure and local polling places destroyed, Panhandle election officials extended early voting days, starting voting on Oct. 22. In badly hit Gulf and Bay counties, officials established “mega-voting sites” that were open 12 hours a day, according to Reuters. Though voters had to travel further than usual, they were still able to cast ballots.

Ordinarily, voting by mail can take the place of in-person voting but in the case of Hurricane Michael mailed ballots were likely lost and absentee voters may not have received mail-in ballots in time.

Fortunately—if that word can be used in such a disaster—Hurricane Michael struck long enough before the election to give officials time to respond and no one promoted the idea of postponing the election. It took place in affected counties at the same time as the rest of the state.

“What a hurricane does to alter the dynamics of politics and campaigning is it reinforces to people that without government, you have nothing in an emergency,” Steve Bousquet, Tallahassee bureau chief for the Tampa Bay Times, told National Public Radio at the time.

“You know, everyone’s asking, where’s FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Administration]?” he said. “Everyone’s asking, you know, where first responders are. And they’re grateful for the help they’re getting from first responders. But everywhere you look, you see the hand of government trying to give people hope.”

It’s worth noting that Hurricane Michael struck very late in the season, on Oct. 10. This year a hurricane could disrupt the primary election in August or the general election in November—and it is not beyond the realm of possibility that two separate hurricanes could strike on or near both election days.

Germs

05-04-20 Masked medical personnel — Healthcare workers in protective gear.

This year is not the first time a United States election will be occurring in the midst of a pandemic. In 1918 a congressional mid-term election took place amidst the Spanish flu pandemic. (For an excellent article on this, and the main source for the account below, see the History Channel’s “How the US Pulled Off Midterm Elections Amid the 1918 Flu Pandemic.”)

The 1918 influenza struck in a first wave in the spring, died down and then roared back ferociously in September and October, killing 195,000 Americans. By Election Day, Nov. 5, the flu was dying down in the eastern part of the country but mounting in the west. Overall turnout was reduced, at about 40 percent.

“Despite the risks involved, there appears to have been little public discussion about simply postponing the election that year,” states the article. “Jason Marisam, a law professor at Hamline University who has studied how the flu pandemic affected the 1918 midterms, argues that there might well have been talk of postponement—if the United States hadn’t been at war at the time. But with their troops fighting overseas, Americans’ spirit of civic pride was running high, and voting was seen as a necessary act of patriotism.”

More recently, Wisconsin chose to hold its primary as scheduled on April 7 of this year despite the Coronavirus pandemic and numerous efforts to postpone the election.

According to Wisconsin’s official tally, turnout for the primary was 34.3 percent, or 1,551,711 votes cast in both the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries.

The Coronavirus had a big impact on absentee or mail-in voting in the state. “…The coronavirus almost certainly contributed to the record number of people who voted absentee,” wrote Nathan Rakich in an analysis on the website FiveThirtyEight.com. “As of Monday morning [April 13], 1,098,489 absentee ballots had been returned, meaning absentees will probably account for about 80 percent of all votes in this election. That’s an unheard-of proportion in Wisconsin, where voting by mail is not very widespread. For example, only 10 percent of Wisconsinites voted absentee in the 2016 presidential primary, and only 27 percent in the 2016 general election.”

But the mail-in and absentee ballots caused controversy in a state unaccustomed to that form of voting and the results could face legal challenges.

“There have been numerous reports of voters not receiving their absentee ballots in time to cast them, and hundreds of ballots have been found never to have been delivered at all; the U.S. Postal Service is currently investigating what happened,” writes Rakich. “Not to mention, some absentee ballots that were mailed back on time may not be allowed to count. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that absentee ballots must be postmarked by April 7 in order to count, but there are already reports of several hundred ballots not postmarked, which means they might not count.”

A final official result of the Wisconsin primary is scheduled for release on May 15.

If the Coronavirus behaves the same way as the Spanish flu, there is a strong likelihood that the United States could see a second intense wave of infections in the autumn, possibly close to the voting period.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on April 28: “I’m almost certain it will come back. The virus is so transmissible and it’s globally spread. …In my mind, it’s inevitable that we will have a return of the virus or maybe it never even went away. When it does, how we handle it will determine our fate. If by that time we have put into place all of the countermeasures that we need to address this we should do reasonably well. If we don’t do that successfully, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter.”

That means a possible return of quarantines, closures and lockdowns, possibly at an even higher rate and more restrictive than in the spring.

Given that possibility, election offices need to be prepared for massive voting by mail and that means having sufficient forms, envelopes and the means of verifying and authenticating ballots. But it also means finding the volunteers and poll workers willing to make in-person voting available as well.

At the same time, if there are new bans on assemblies, lockdowns and quarantines once general voting begins there will be all kinds of charges and suspicions about manipulation of voters one way or another.

This raises another potential hazard…

Violence

05-04-20 Michigan protesters — Armed protesters in Michigan, April 30.

On April 30, armed demonstrators protesting the Coronavirus quarantine entered the Michigan state capitol building, where lawmakers were meeting. Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has been a particular target of President Donald Trump’s ire, as expressed in his tweets and in on-camera comments.

No shots were fired in Michigan but while attracting only small numbers of participants, these armed demonstrations are occurring with increasing frequency. Many were organized by conservative groups and they were certainly encouraged by President Donald Trump’s call to “liberate” Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia from the strictures imposed by their Democratic governors.

This advances a trend toward armed protests that began in Charlottesville, Va., in August 2017 during which one person was killed by a car driven into a crowd by a right-wing extremist. On Jan. 20, 2020, large numbers of gun-rights protestors demonstrated against proposed gun restrictions in the state capital of Richmond. Just prior to the rally, Federal Bureau of Investigation agents arrested three individuals planning to attend, for firearms violations. They called themselves “The Base,” an English translation of the Arabic, “Al Qaeda.”

To date, other than Charlottesville, none of the other armed protests have resulted in violence, loss of life or destruction. However, it is not inconceivable that in a hotly contested and emotional election, armed individuals or terrorists could attempt to intimidate voters or disrupt or interfere in the electoral process. What is more, in this case such protestors could have the encouragement from an aggrieved party, most likely the President of the United States.

This is not unprecedented in American history. In the 1850s pitched battles occurred on the streets of Baltimore, Md., on election days during the heyday of the anti-immigrant Native American Party, more commonly known now as the “Know-Nothings.”

Potential disruption is always a possibility in any election, so security needs to be robust and alert. But with the trend toward armed displays, this year’s polling places will need additional layers of protection and that protection must be strong, overwhelming and fairly applied to all sides.

The Trump factor

WARNING: The following contains worst-case scenarios that some readers may find disturbing. Reader discretion is advised.

Perhaps the greatest unknown in this year’s election is the president himself. Given his past actions and character he is also the most volatile and dangerous factor in an already combustible brew.

As noted above, Donald Trump has encouraged “liberation” of states whose governors he opposes, has consistently condoned extremism and violence and openly pursues power at all costs regardless of its impact on the American people, the Constitution or the country.

Trump has always been dangerous but this year he’s also defensive and desperate. Like a cornered rat he has no course except to lash out and attack.

Having shown himself unrestrained by law, the Constitution or the norms that have allowed American politics to function without damage to the country, Donald Trump has to be judged capable of a variety of actions that could adversely impact this election—and the future of elections in general.

Cancellation

“Mark my words, I think he is going to try to kick back the election somehow — come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.”

Those are the words of former Vice President Joe Biden during an April 23 virtual fundraiser, discussing the possibility of President Donald Trump attempting to cancel the 2020 presidential election.

Biden is hardly the first person to worry that Trump could try to cancel the election. Numerous legal and constitutional experts have concluded that he has no legal power to do so, regardless of the pandemic or states of emergency that may be declared.

What gives rise to this fear, however, is Trump’s clear ignorance of the law and the Constitution and his demonstrated contempt for legal restraints on his actions.

Cancelling elections is a classic ploy of dictators, who of course want to rule without any democratic restraints and in the past they have used national emergencies to rule by decree. The classic example of this was Adolf Hitler who used the Reichstag fire of 1933 to get passed an enabling law that allowed him to rule without any checks or restraints.

If Trump succeeded in canceling the election it would mean the end of American democracy and establishment of an undisguised dictatorship.

Postponement

More likely than outright cancellation is the possibility that Trump could try to postpone the election, probably based on the state of the Coronavirus pandemic. Unfortunately, postponement now has precedents in the postponed primaries of this year.

Postponement is a slippery slope; if the presidential election is postponed an immediate fight would begin over setting a new date. There’s no guarantee that another election would be held later and it has the potential to effectively become a cancellation. It would also disrupt all the down-ballot elections critical to running the country under its current Constitution: federal senatorial and representative elections; state, local and municipal elections; and a wide array of policy questions and referenda.

An attempted postponement would be challenged in the courts and there would be an immense outcry. However, Trump has never shied away from court challenges and he has ignored past outcries.

Delegitimization

When he was facing an electoral loss in 2016 Trump denounced the electoral system as “rigged” against him. He has begun doing the same again this year, tweeting on May 1: “Don’t allow RIGGED ELECTIONS!”

While this might be a sentiment all Americans would rightly share, coming from Donald Trump it could also be seen as a threat against an election outcome that he might try to delegitimize with charges of fraud or rigging.

Trump has always attempted to delegitimize anything he doesn’t like: the news media, governors, Democrats, other nations. When he was in private life this was just disparagement. On the campaign trail, it was just denigration. But as president, it is a strategy of stripping credibility from national institutions and constitutional checks and balances that stand in his way.

Of course, if he wins through the Electoral College or Russian interference, his victory will ipso-facto become legitimate in his own eyes.

However, there is a strong possibility that Trump will try to delegitimize the entire election if the outcome is not to his liking.

Invalidation

Should he lose the election, Trump may try to legally invalidate the outcome, challenging it in court, alleging fraud and refusing to abide by its results.

In the past Trump has alleged that he lost the New Hampshire primary due to massive voter fraud and that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 popular vote victory was similarly due to voter fraud.

“In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally,” he tweeted on Nov. 27, 2016, repeating the allegation in a January meeting with members of Congress.

There has never been any credible evidence of these allegations and in fact a commission Trump established to investigate them ultimately disbanded without validating any charges.

Trump’s fantasies of massive voter fraud cost taxpayer money to investigate but this year he might use them to try to try to invalidate the results of an election. This is not the same as delegitimization; it is an attempt to declare the results legally invalid and of no force.

Should he lose, Trump might also refuse to concede or relinquish power in January 2021. Although the United States has never had a fight over electoral legitimacy, other countries have in the past and a prolonged struggle risks civil disorder or even domestic war.

Suppression

Voter suppression has long been a problem in US elections but given the patchwork of election jurisdictions and the decentralized nature of the US electoral system, it has been done at the state and local level.

However, with mail-in voting on a massive scale likely this year due to the Coronavirus pandemic, Trump has verbally attacked the US Postal Service (USPS), tried to starve it of funds and denounced voting-by-mail as potentially fraudulent.

“Republicans should fight very hard when it comes to state wide mail-in voting. Democrats are clamoring for it. Tremendous potential for voter fraud, and for whatever reason, doesn’t work out well for Republicans,” Trump tweeted on April 8 at 7:20 am. By 6:34 pm that day he felt he had to tweet a clarification: “Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can’t get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is “RIPE for FRAUD,” and shouldn’t be allowed!”

It seems doubtful that Trump could stop all voting by mail or otherwise suppress sufficient votes by command. However, his rhetoric and his encouragement of vote suppression from the bully pulpit of the White House could encourage state and local officials to conduct suppressive activities in order to skew the election in his favor.

* * *

These are just some of the scenarios threatening this year’s elections.

However, in addition to all these scenarios there is another one and it is this: The election takes place as scheduled. The weather cooperates. Voting is orderly. People can vote in whatever form they choose. All who wish to vote do so. The count is honest and accurate. The results are accepted by all parties and the public. Power is conferred peacefully, legitimately and legally. The country heals.

What are the chances?

Liberty lives in light

SWFL State of Play Today: Sorting through the herd

04-28-20 sheep stampede

April 28, 2020 by David Silverberg.

Southwest Florida is not usually known for stampedes—of any kind. But right now a herd of political candidates is charging through the landscape from Cape Coral to Marco Island and all are hoping to emerge as the region’s representative in Congress.

Thirteen candidates have now qualified to be on their parties’ August 18 primary ballots, according to the Florida Division of Elections; two Democrats, 10 Republicans and one Independent.

Who exactly is running right now? And just as important, why has there been such a Republican stampede in a place like Southwest Florida, a place that’s usually so politically quiet and somnolent?

This article will attempt to sort the herd.

The Democratic contest

01-15-20 Holden and Banyai — David Holden and Cindy Banyai

On the Democratic Party side, both Cindy Banyai and David Holden will be on the primary election ballot on August 18. At a Jan. 15 meeting of the Collier County Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus, both pledged to support whoever emerged as the Party’s nominee.

The Paradise Progressive has been holding online debates between Banyai and Holden on Coronavirus and the economy and will continue to ask pertinent questions. Both are intelligent, articulate candidates committed to social justice and democracy. Banyai did internships on Capitol Hill and taught abroad in Asia. David Holden, who holds a Harvard University degree, served in Democratic Party positions in White Plains, NY and ran for Congress in 2018 against Rooney.

But while the Democratic primary contest has seen a civilized discussion of the issues, the Republican primary battle, in keeping with the tone set by President Donald Trump, has been wilder and less enlightening.

The Republican stampede

The 10 Republican candidates can be divided into three groups.

The rich amateurs

Businessman Casey Askar and urologist Dr. William Figlesthaler are the richest candidates, with cash on hand of $3,482,873 and $1,011,164 respectively, fueled by personal loans to their campaigns. Based on their Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Askar has loaned his campaign $3 million and Figlesthaler $1,470,000 ($1,060,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and $410,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019).

Neither has any prior electoral experience, neither has ever held a government position (unless you count Askar’s stint in the US Marines) and neither has ever served in a legislative body. Both are running on the strength of their belief in Donald Trump and their respective business successes—fueled by lots of personal cash.

(Neither responded to questions from The Paradise Progressive asking them to name specific measures they would take in Congress to support and sustain the SWFL economy.)

The Old Pros

State Reps. Byron Donalds (R-80-Immokalee), Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral), Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78-Fort Myers) and Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson (who on April 8 submitted his resignation effective Nov. 30 from the mayoralty, as required by law so that he can run for Congress) are all local elected officials with legislative or executive experience and existing bases of support.

Dan Severson served in the Minnesota state house from 2002 to 2011, giving him legislative experience, although not in Florida.

The poor newcomers

Darren Aquino, a New York actor before moving to Naples, and Christy McLaughlin, a recent graduate of Ave Maria Law School, who will turn 25 this summer to become eligible for office, did not report receiving any campaign donations in the first quarter of 2020, according to the FEC. Dan Kowal, a Collier County sheriff’s deputy who previously served as a US Capitol policeman, only entered the race on April 21.

In a class by himself is Independent Antonio Dumornay, a former Republican who switched to Independent.

The issues

On the Republican side of the ledger, there is virtually no distinction between any of the candidates when it comes to addressing the issues or taking policy positions.

The chief qualification they all cite is total loyalty to Donald Trump and his program—whatever that is at the moment. All are Trump defenders, so their only distinction is the fierceness of their fealty.

Christy McLaughlin stood out this this past weekend by holding an online rally calling for Florida to end any Coronavirus restrictions. She is the only candidate among the Republicans calling to end all forms of quarantine and join Trump’s “liberation” movement.

It is interesting that Dan Kowal, the newest newcomer, doesn’t mention Donald Trump anywhere on his website’s home page. While he’s another angry Republican— “It’s time to stop being ruled by the loud minority: the career politicians, special interest groups, and big business” —it’s not until well into his website, under “key issues” that he declares, “I Stand With President Trump. I’m a patriot. I’ll work to bring justice to those who conspired against the President and against this Great Nation.”

Why the stampede?

So what’s going on here? Why so large a herd of undistinguished and indistinguishable Republican candidates?

The answer is that the 19th Congressional District appears to be a plum ripe for plucking by any candidate, no matter how marginal.

The usual calculation is that in Southwest Florida only the Republican primary counts and winning that primary is tantamount to winning the general election. And the Republican primary is determined by a tiny minority of Republican activists who this year consist of fanatical Trumpers. If a candidate can win even a small following among the people who are certain to go to the primary polls, he or she can take the election.

What is more, the rich amateurs are calculating that enough money and enough advertising can easily sway these primary voters and the usual qualifications like roots in the community, name recognition, knowledge of the region, attention to local issues—in fact, attention to any real issues at all—is irrelevant.

The old pros have a more traditional approach, clearly believing that their past electoral successes, existing following and service record will stand them in good stead. In this, Dane Eagle stands out both for his political experience in the state legislature and his geographic base in Cape Coral, the highest populated city in the District, where he has an existing infrastructure on the ground.

But this year it would be a mistake to count out the Democrats. Even in conservative Southwest Florida unhappiness with the president’s Coronavirus response, his clear ineptitude in dealing with the crisis and what appears to be derangement in his statements and public appearances, may be wearing on more traditional Southwest Florida Republicans.

What is more, the March 17 revolution in the City of Naples, where voters threw out the mayor and entire city council, may just be a harbinger of a widespread discontent and readiness for overall change.

In the meantime, the stampede for Francis Rooney’s seat provides an interesting spectacle, better entertainment than TV and something to behold in wonder while quarantined at home.

Liberty lives in light

The hidden story of the Democratic presidential primary–and the party’s future UPDATED

04-08-20 Beto O'Rourke high school 04-08-20 Julian Castro high school cropped 04-08-20 Eric Swalwell high school 04-08-20 Pete Buttigieg high school

High school photos of Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro, Eric Swalwell and Pete Buttigieg.

April 9, 2020 by David Silverberg.

Updated 10:45 am with additional concluding analysis.

With the withdrawal yesterday of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the Democratic presidential nomination is now in former Vice President Joe Biden’s hands; all that remains is an official party coronation.

But amidst the excitement and heartbreak of the Democratic presidential primaries there’s another story that needs to be told. It may be the biggest to come out of the presidential campaign to date—and the most overlooked and hidden.

The coming presidential battle between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is probably the last struggle of Baby Boomers over political power. Donald Trump is 73 and Joe Biden is 77. Sanders is 78 and, just to add them to the mix, Michael Bloomberg is 78 and Elizabeth Warren is 70.

But amidst the brawling debates and the stabbing sound bites, something else happened: a new generation of Democratic leaders emerged and these are the ones who will ultimately lead the nation in the years to come. They were all on display in the first rush of candidates to seek the presidential mantle. None of them succeeded—but they stepped into the limelight, no matter how briefly, and we all got a first look at them.

If the United States remains a democracy, continues to operate under its Constitution and has regularly scheduled elections as in the past—things that can’t be taken for granted if this president remains in office—then these under-50 Democratic leaders will be on the political stage for a long time to come. All are elected officials, all are now veterans of a presidential campaign and all are likely to be back in one form or another. It gives the Democrats a deep bench.

They’re worth looking at, each in turn and examining their electoral records, their prospects and—subjectively—what they might do next to further their political careers.

So, from oldest to youngest:

Beto O’Rourke

Age: 47 years old, born September 26, 1972.

Education: Columbia University

Previous offices: El Paso City Council, 2005 to 2011; won US House Representative, Texas 16th Congressional District with 65 percent of the vote and served 6 years, 2013 to 2019.

In 2018 O’Rourke ran against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and came within 3 percentage points of defeating him, raising $80 million in the process, the most ever raised by a Senate candidate to that time. He also created enormous enthusiasm for his candidacy, appearing as a fresh, exciting candidate who appealed to younger voters

O’Rourke announced his candidacy for president on March 14, 2019. He never inspired the enthusiasm he had in his Senate race and he announced termination of his campaign on Nov. 1, 2019, well before the first primaries and caucuses. On Super Tuesday, March 3, he briefly made headlines when he dramatically endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden for president.

Next steps: Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is up for re-election this year but last February O’Rourke flatly decided not to challenge him in order to concentrate on his presidential run. The next possible move is the Texas governorship, which opens in 2022. The current governor, Republican Gregg Abbott, could run for a third term and there are numerous other potential Democratic candidates (more below). When O’Rourke dropped his presidential bid there was talk among the punditry and party activists about his serving as Biden’s vice president, though Biden announced that a woman would be his running mate.

Analysis: If O’Rourke doesn’t go into the executive branch he needs to win the next election he enters to stay a credible prospect for higher electoral office.

Julian Castro

04-08-20 Julián_Castro's_Official_HUD_Portrait — Julian Castro

Age: 45 years old, born Sept. 16, 1974

Education: Stanford University, Harvard Law School

Previous offices: San Antonio City Council, 2000 to 2005 (at 26, the youngest person ever to hold that position); unsuccessful run for mayor of San Antonio, Texas, 2005; in 2008 elected mayor with 56 percent of the vote and served 2009 to 2014; US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 2014 to 2017 under President Barack Obama. He also gave the keynote address at the 2012 Democratic National Convention and was considered as a vice presidential running mate for Hillary Clinton.

Castro announced his run for president on Jan. 12, 2019. Although he participated in several debates, his campaign never caught fire and he dropped out almost exactly a year after he started, on Jan. 2, 2020. He endorsed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) four days later.

Next steps: If he seeks Texas office, Castro’s way forward could run into Beto O’Rourke as a rival for the Texas governorship in 2022 or he could take on Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024. Until Joe Biden announced that he would be selecting a woman as running mate, Castro was seriously considered as a vice presidential candidate. Depending on the outcome of the 2020 election, he could try another presidential run in 2024.

Analysis: With his past service in the executive branch, Castro is a real possibility for a Cabinet position in a Democratic administration. Clearly a politician of both electoral and administrative ability with appeal to the Hispanic community, he has numerous options and roads open to him.

Eric Swalwell

Age: 39, born November 16, 1980

Education: Campbell University, NC, transferred in junior year to University of Maryland, College Park, BA; University of Maryland, Baltimore, JD

Previous offices: Alameda County deputy district attorney; city council, Dublin, Calif., 2010; US representative California 15th Congressional District, starting 2012.

Swalwell announced his candidacy on April 8, 2019 and made addressing gun violence the centerpiece of his campaign. His most prominent moment came in the first presidential debate when he observed that he was six years old when Joe Biden spoke of passing the torch to a new generation. His presidential campaign never caught fire, though, and he withdrew in July, before he could be disqualified for the next round of presidential debates.

Next steps: A logical next step would be for Swalwell to pursue a US Senate seat. However, both of California’s Senate seats are held by fellow Democrats. The seat of Kamala Harris, who also ran for president, is up for election in 2022. Depending on the outcome of the 2020 election, Harris could either enter a Democratic administration or seek re-election in 2022. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who has held her seat since 1992, may retire when her term is up in 2024. A run for governor in 2022 seems a stretch since current governor Gavin Newsom is a Democrat. If he seeks a second term it would be difficult for Swalwell to unseat him.

Alternatively, Swalwell could continue to build his career in the House of Representatives. He has graduated to increasingly important roles and committee assignments in his three terms to date as a representative and there may be party leadership openings in the future. He defeated two Democratic primary challengers in his congressional district on March 3 and is in a strong position to win re-election in November.

Though Swalwell did not go far as a presidential candidate, he appeared on the national stage as an intelligent and articulate politician. In the past he has proven an innovative campaigner. As a millennial himself, he made outreach to his generation a central pillar of his presidential campaign and that may pay dividends in the future. In 2015 he founded the Future Forum Political Action Committee, aimed at millennials and their issues. It raised more than $542,000 during the 2017-2018 election cycle — a significant jump from the $62,400 it raised in the 2016 election cycle, according to the Center for Public Integrity.

Whatever he does in the future, Swalwell is definitely a Democrat to keep an eye on.

Pete Buttigieg

Age: 38, born January 19, 1982

Education: Harvard University, BA, magna cum laude; Rhodes Scholar; Pembroke College, Oxford, UK, MA with a first in politics, philosophy and economics.

Military service: Joined US Naval Reserve, 2009 as ensign, promoted to lieutenant; 2014 deployment to Afghanistan, recipient Joint Service Commendation Medal.

Previous office: Mayor, South Bend, Indiana 2011-Jan. 1, 2020.

Analysis: Of all the candidates under 50, Buttigieg emerged as the media standout. He won the Iowa caucuses after a murky primary process and participated in numerous debates where he came across as very intelligent and articulate. His campaign lasted longest and for a time he seemed to have a real shot at the nomination. His options seem limitless.

Next steps: It’s doubtful that Buttigieg would have much of a political career in very conservative Indiana—then again, just becoming mayor of South Bend and going as far as he did as a presidential candidate seemed improbable. Both current Indiana senators are Republicans and their seats are not up until 2023 and 2025 respectively. The governor, Eric Holcomb, who took over when Mike Pence assumed the vice presidency, is up in 2020, but given his concentration on the presidency, Buttigieg showed no interest in pursuing the office and Indiana pundits think he would have a difficult time if he did.

Buttigieg might have a variety of possible positions in a Joe Biden administration or he could pursue a Democratic Party position.

Buttigieg came out as gay in 2015 and is married to Chasten Glezman, a sexual orientation that will certainly sway some voters against him. However, it didn’t seem to affect his presidential run much and it was never cited as a major issue by the other candidates—although it might have been had he stayed the front runner.

Of all the presidential candidates under 50 who ran in 2019 and 2020, Buttigieg’s star shown brightest. If the Democrats win the presidency and he stays healthy and politically involved, there’s no telling where Buttigieg might go.

* * *

Another Democratic presidential candidate was Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 38, of Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District. A three-term representative with military service, Gabbard showed promise of political leadership despite some controversial actions, like meeting with Syria’s President Bashar al Assad.

But Gabbard really took herself out of the running for Democratic leadership when she voted “present” on the impeachment vote of President Donald Trump on Dec. 19, 2019, saying she could not in good conscience vote for either side. The animosity resulting from that stance has likely doomed any further advancement in Democratic Party politics. Gabbard also announced that she would not seek re-election to her congressional seat in order to pursue the presidency, leaving her without elected office.

The other bright young star in the Democratic firmament is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 30, of New York’s 14th Congressional District. AOC, as she is widely known, will first be eligible to run for president in the 2028 presidential election. Before she does that, however, she must win re-election this year to a second term in her home district.

Liberty lives in light

Follow the money: Dan Severson’s finances and what they mean

Dan Severson in a 2010 Minnesota appearance at which he stated: “Never let anybody say that we are a democracy. We are not a democracy.” (Image: Minnesota Democratic-Farm-Labor Party)

Feb. 17, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of Republican congressional candidate Dan Severson raised $107,531.14 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the fourth-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Of that amount, $101,500 came in the form of a loan from the candidate.

Otherwise, $3,950 came from just four contributors based in California, Minnesota, Alabama and Pennsylvania—none from Florida, other than what Severson contributed himself.

Severson spent $4,362.57. Of this, the largest amount, $2,250, was spent with Fort Myers consultant Diana Watt and her company Watt Political Consulting. However, that was before Watt and her team resigned from his campaign in early January, after State Rep. Byron Donalds (R-80-Immokalee) announced his candidacy.

The split between the candidate and the consultant came despite their shared adoration of President Donald Trump. Watt and her team issued nothing but praise for Severson as they departed.

“We hold Dan Severson and his wife, Cathy Jo, in the highest regard and wish them the very best,” Watt said, according to Florida Politics. Nathan Watt, deputy campaign manager, who also left, said: “Dan Severson has served his country with honor his entire life and is a wonderful example of a man obeying God’s call on his life.”

Otherwise, Severson’s expenditures covered miscellaneous campaign items like website hosting, event tickets, digital advertising and the like.

Analysis: What it means

This is a campaign that’s already on life support.

Other than the candidate’s loan to his own campaign, he has virtually no donors, no local base of support and his hired campaign team has abandoned him. Even after being one of the first of the eight Republican candidates to file in November after Rep. Francis Rooney’s retirement announcement, Severson still has little to no local name recognition and the evangelicals, veterans and Trumpers he was counting on as his base of support have plenty of other more established and well-known choices.

Severson has had a checkered political career. After serving as a naval fighter pilot for 22 years, he was elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives in 2002 and held the position until 2011, rising to the position of Minority Whip.

He ran for Minnesota’s secretary of state in 2014 and lost by 1 percent to Democrat-Farm-Labor (DFL) Party candidate Steve Simon.

In a time before Trump, Severson caused Trump-like outrage by leveling charges of voter suppression and fraud against Democrats, which Democrats countered were baseless lies. In particular, Severson charged that in the 2014 election of DFL Sen. Al Franken, military votes were deliberately not counted.

After a bizarre dueling press conference in the same room at the same time between Severson and his opponent that took place on Oct. 14, 2014, reporter Doug Grow of the Minnesota Post was led to ask whether Severson’s antics were designed as a “desperate bid to tie himself to the military” and inflame Republican voters. In the end, it didn’t work.

Aged 65, Severson came to Southwest Florida to retire but contemplated running in the 19th Congressional District even before Rooney’s October retirement announcement—because he thought Rooney wasn’t conservative enough.

Severson is anti-choice, pro-gun, denies climate change and opposes Rooney’s proposal for a carbon tax. He is the most overtly religious of the Republican candidates, invoking God on Trump’s behalf.

Given the state of his campaign, he might want to save some of those prayers for himself.

Liberty lives in light

Follow the money: Ford O’Connell’s finances and what they mean

Ford O’Connell appearing on the Fox Business Network.

Feb. 12, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of Republican congressional candidate Ford O’Connell raised $310,205 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the third-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Of that amount, $200,000 came in a loan to the campaign made by the candidate.

The other $110,205 was made in 139 separate donations. However, of these donations, 60 or 43 percent, were made through Winred, a conservative, online, pass-through political action committee (PAC) based in Arlington, Va.

Winred describes itself on its website as “a conduit PAC coupled with proven fundraising technology. The advanced lead optimization and donation platform increases engagement and maximizes your fundraising by leveraging a conservative ecosystem in the millions.” Put another way, users from any location can donate to any Republican candidate online.

As a result, $74,875 of O’Connell’s contributions came from anonymous donors outside the district. Of his total contributions, $44,100 came from Florida and of that, only $25,600 from 16 donors came from within the 19th Congressional District and all of those were from Naples.

As of Jan. 31, O’Connell had spent $3,173.03 on his campaign, all of it with Winred.

Analysis: What it means

O’Connell came late to this party, only filing his candidacy with the FEC on Dec. 6. He hasn’t had much time to fundraise or organize his campaign.

However, in early January he hired Sean Kempton as deputy campaign manager. Kempton, a graduate of Florida Gulf Coast University, served on the 2018 campaign of Gov. Ron Desantis (R) and later in his administration. One presumes that this means O’Connell will be trying to build a grassroots field operation.

As demonstrated by his fundraising, O’Connell doesn’t appear to have a network of local donors, so he is using online means to raise funds nationally.

O’Connell told the political website Ballotpedia that his three goals in office are: fighting for President Trump; protecting the quality of life in Southwest Florida (as he put it: “Southwest Florida first!”); and “draining the swamp.”

Accordingly, O’Connell’s platform is one of straight Trumpism and doesn’t deviate or vary from the Trumpist line. He deprecates Democrats, wants to protect national sovereignty from illegal immigrants, and boasts of being a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association.

The only way that O’Connell stands out from the other Trumper candidates in the 19th Congressional District to date is in the vehemence and volume of his Trumpism rather than its substance. O’Connell appears to be channeling his idol and adopting his campaign approach of personalizing his attacks, (“I have a feeling that some people might actually want to go back to Tallahassee rather than stay in this, what is going to be an epic dog fight,”—a shot at Dane Eagle), demonizing the opposition (“Democrats are the party of illegal immigration…”), and playing the apocalyptic paranoid card (“President Trump is our last hope for conservative governance for the foreseeable future in this country.”).

O’Connell’s attacks on immigration are ironic in light of his grandfather Henry Salvatori’s immigration from Italy to the United States, where he built a successful petroleum company, as well as the Irish origins of O’Connell’s name.

O’Connell’s only reference to a local issue is on his website where he pledges, “I will advocate and fight for the highest level of federal funding for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP).” Otherwise, his issues are all national in scope.

Given that all his local donors were based in Naples, it appears that O’Connell doesn’t have any roots or organization in Fort Myers, Cape Coral or anywhere in Lee County.

Given the lateness of his entry, his lack of a ground game and his background in television punditry, it is most likely that O’Connell will hold his main fire until later in the season and then attempt a broadcast blitz, trying to overwhelm his opponents with television advertising. However, since broadcast purchasing can eat up a lot of money very fast he will have to do much better fundraising if he’s to have the resources to do that.

Substantively and from a policymaking stand point there’s nothing to distinguish O’Connell from the other Trumpers in the race. He has little local name recognition or roots in the community. He does have $200,000 worth of skin in the game—and it will be interesting to see what that can buy him in the 19th Congressional District.

Coming: Randy Henderson and the video that went viral

Liberty lives in light

Follow the money: Dane Eagle’s finances and what they mean

Dane Eagle speaks at a Trump rally. (Photo: Dane Eagle for Congress campaign)

Feb. 10, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) raised $423,095 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the second-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

What makes Eagle’s fundraising remarkable is that it consisted entirely of donations and no loans.

There were 237 donations to Eagle’s campaign, of which 11 came from committees and political action committees (PACs) rather than individuals. These PACs included the Florida Transportation Builders Association PAC, the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers PAC, Giving US Security PAC and the Universal Health Services Employee Good Government Fund.

One prominent Southwest Floridian who contributed was Sam Galloway Jr., the car dealer, who kicked in $5,000.

Also contributing was the Jeff Miller for Congress campaign. Miller is a former Republican representative for Florida’s 1st Congressional District in the Panhandle, a seat currently held by fellow Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. While Gaetz has been an outspoken and aggressive supporter of President Donald Trump, he committed the heresy of voting to limit the president’s power to wage war on Iran.

Eagle’s donors were also from all over the United States, including Washington, DC, Pennsylvania and Alabama. While the vast majority were from Florida, they came from all over the state.

In this period Eagle’s campaign committee spent $47,758.17.

Much of this was spent on consultants. Like his fellow Republican competitor William Figlesthaler, Eagle is using Anedot, Baton Rouge, La., as his fundraising consultant. In addition he’s drawing on the expertise of Picotte and Porter, LLC, Jacksonville, Fla., for additional fundraising advice and assistance and TM Strategic Consulting, based in Fort Myers, which provided general political advice and branding expertise. The company is run by Terry Miller, a conservative political strategist.

Most expenses were for routine campaign requirements like videography, event logistics, software, advertising and the like.

Analysis: What it means

Eagle has been in state office since winning election in 2012 and has risen, at the remarkably young age of 36, to be acting House majority leader in the Florida legislature. This gives him a wide network of contacts and national connections, which he’s using for his campaign.

Based on the data in his FEC report, he’s running a professional, well-funded campaign that draws on established professional political expertise. His donor base is diverse and extensive, which demonstrates real grassroots support, most of it local.

Ideologically, Eagle is an extreme Trumper and has staked his claim on the far right edge of the Trump universe, which should serve him well with core Republican primary voters. He’s an active user of social media and his media to date fully reflects Trump’s rage and paranoia against Democrats and anyone who dares to disagree with the leader. He also shares Trump’s nasty and vicious absolutism. There’s no reason to believe that these are not Eagle’s genuine sentiments and outlook as well.

Uniquely, Eagle showed interest in a political career at an early age and served as deputy chief of staff to then-Gov. Charlie Crist (R) at the age of 24. He has shown that he can master legislation and legislative maneuvering. Unlike other candidates who have jumped into this race after—or during—other, non-political careers, Eagle is all politics, all the time.

Given his young age and early prominence, Eagle will likely be on the political scene for a long time unless he suddenly flames out—often an occupational hazard for young prodigies. Of the Republican candidates for Congress in the 19th District, he is at the moment the most formidable one.

Next: Ford O’Connell

Liberty lives in light

Follow the money: Figlesthaler’s finances and what they mean

Dr. William Figlesthaler delivers his own State of the Union address in a campaign video. (Image: Dr. Fig for Congress campaign)

Feb. 6, 2020 by David Silverberg

Final 4th Quarter 2019 financial figures are out for the political campaigns in Southwest Florida’s 19th Congressional District, so it’s time to survey the standing of all 11 candidates.

But it’s not enough just to recount what candidates have reported to the Federal Election Commission. In a series of articles called “Follow the money,” The Paradise Progressive will analyze what the numbers mean for each campaign, what they tell us about each candidate’s popular support and how each candidate is positioned for the days ahead.

Because it’s such a crowded field these articles will appear singly as individual profiles.

We’ll look at candidates in the order of the amount of money they raised in 2019.

Willliam Figlesthaler

Republican Dr. William Figlesthaler is the top-funded candidate in the race for the House of Representatives in the 19th Congressional District.

This Naples-based urologist and first-time politician has the highest total of all candidates reporting their 2019 finances, with $536,295 in receipts.

However, of that amount the vast majority, $410,000, came in a loan to the campaign from the candidate. Otherwise, 37 other donors contributed to the campaign for both the primary and general elections in amounts starting at $3,000.

Virtually all donors are active or retired doctors or associated with the medical field. Additional donors are family members: his Russian-born wife Olga and relatives Karolina, Elizabeth and William Figlesthaler II. Figlesthaler also received $2,000 from the campaign committee of Rep. Greg Murphy (R-3-NC), a member of Congress and fellow urologist from North Carolina, where Figlesthaler did his residence.

Figlesthaler spent $29,541.35 in 2019. Most of that was spent on consultants for media and fundraising, a video and website development. However, he also came up with a unique and bizarre form of advertising: screens in the men’s urinals in Hertz Arena.

As men urinate on the red, white and blue-colored plastic screen at the bottom of the urinal, they can ask themselves the question printed on the screen: “Are you ready to drain the swamp?” and presumably somehow connect the Dr. Fig name on the screen to Figlesthaler.

The stunt certainly got Figlesthaler local TV air time and media coverage.

“Quite frankly, they’re pissed off,” Figlesthaler said of voters to NBC-2’s Dave Elias, who reported the urinal story on Jan. 20. “They’re tired of what’s going on in Washington.” And was this a good idea? “The mere fact we’re talking about it right now tells me it was probably a good idea,” he concluded.

Whether it changes anyone’s mind and convinces voters remains to be seen. It’s not clear whether there’s any equivalent promotion for the women’s lavatories, so essentially Figlesthaler ignored half the voting population.

Analysis

Politically, Figlesthaler is a straight out Trumper and undeviatingly follows the Trumpist line on all issues. He’s working off the 2016 angry voter meme and making the old “drain the swamp” slogan the centerpiece of his campaign—one now abandoned even by Trump. He’s anti-abortion. He plays up his lack of political experience or knowledge. The only local issue he addresses on his website is water purity—he’s all for it.

It appears that he was inspired or convinced by his fellow urologist Greg Murphy in North Carolina that with enough money a candidate with virtually no name recognition, legislative record or political experience could win a seat in Congress.

Given the amount of personal money he’s putting into his campaign and his array of media and political consultants Figlesthaler is running what should look to an outsider like a fairly professional campaign. Consultants include Anedot, Baton Rouge, La., for fundraising; Compliance Consulting, a global compliance firm; Landslyde Media Group, a single-person, Cape Coral-based consultancy; Southeastern Strategies, a marketing firm; and Lakeside Media, a video production company.

That said, there’s no indication that Figlesthaler has any field organization, volunteers or infrastructure or is making any effort in that direction.

Figlesthaler seems to have no knowledge or interest in local issues and he certainly has no established political base beyond his small circle of doctor friends and their spouses, who actually reside all over the state rather than in the District.

Given his medical background and medical-heavy donor base he could clearly weigh in on healthcare and medical issues. However, his website states only: “As a physician, I have served thousands of Southwest Florida patients. I have seen firsthand how government-controlled healthcare drives up costs and destroys patients’ quality of care. I will fight for a free market system that ensures competitive prices and quality of service.” In other words, he opposes the Affordable Care Act.

Figlesthaler’s is a shallow, highly ideological campaign focused on national themes and complete indifference to local issues. Also, his small donor list doesn’t indicate an enormous groundswell of grassroots support.

By most traditional measures, Figlesthaler would not be considered a serious candidate and this would simply be a vanity project. However, his initial personal investment and the resources at his command mean that he must be considered a contender. In this he is following the model of his idol, Donald Trump.

Such campaigns have succeeded in the 19th Congressional District before. However, if he wins, Figlesthaler seems set to join the parade of inexperienced, naïve Southwest Florida candidates who went to Washington and were disillusioned by the rigors and realities of legislating, ill-serving the interests of Southwest Florida.

Next: Dane Eagle

Liberty lives in light

It came from New York: Two mayors and the Florida sidestep

Michael Bloomberg is endorsed for New York City mayor by Rudy Giuliani on Oct. 27, 2001. (Photo:AP)

January 30, 2020 by David Silverberg

It’s a bold, audacious strategy: Put all your chips on Florida. Ignore or avoid all the other primary contests. With your name recognition, vigorous campaigning and votes from transplanted northerners you can take Florida. Then the other primary states will fall into line, you’ll be the party’s nominee and you’ll be on your way to the general election and the White House.

It makes sense: it avoids all the complications of the early contests, it reduces your campaign costs and you can run a ring around a crowded field to a smashing victory.

That’s certainly what Rudy Giuliani thought in 2008.

It’s what Mike Bloomberg thinks in 2020.

And so, he’s doing the dance again. Let’s call it “the Florida sidestep.”

The parallels between Giuliani and Bloomberg are striking: Both were New York City mayors and relative outsiders to their parties. To both Florida seemed—and seems—a fruit ripe for plucking.

What can Rudy Giuliani’s experience tell us about what awaits Mike Bloomberg? How much does the past inform the future?

It’s time to compare and contrast!

The Giuliani bid

In 2007, as today, the field was crowded. President George W. Bush had reached his term limit and there was a massive scramble in both parties to replace him.

On the Republican side names kept popping up and falling by the wayside: George Allen, Tommy Thompson, George Gilmore, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, John Cox.

Anyone remember Alan Keyes?

Among the more credible Republican candidates were US Senator John McCain of Arizona, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Rep. Ron Paul of Kentucky.

But by January 2008 Rudy Giuliani loomed over all of them.

Giuliani was widely hailed as “America’s mayor.” On Sept. 11, 2001 he had led his city and rallied the country in the face of the worst terrorist attacks ever perpetrated on the American homeland. He stood out as a tower of strength, competence and calm amidst chaos and horror. The nation’s admiration for his performance on that day was virtually universal. He’d been named Time’s Man of the Year in December 2001. He was respected, admired and adored.

(For a full account of Giuliani’s actions on 9/11, see “Calm Amidst Chaos: Rudy Giuliani and 9/11” from the book Masters of Disaster: The Political and Leadership Lessons of America’s Greatest Disasters.)

Giuliani and his team thought he could ride his fame and respect into the White House and it was a reasonable expectation.

That year the election season started early: the Iowa caucuses were on Jan. 3. Huckabee led with 34 percent of the results followed by Romney, Fred Thompson and McCain. Giuliani came in a distant sixth with 4 percent. In New Hampshire on Jan. 8, McCain beat Romney for first place, with Huckabee beating Giuliani for third place by 11 percent to 9 percent.

The disappointing results in these early, rural, very conservative states didn’t faze Giuliani or his team. Giuliani led the national polls in February and by March he was considered the frontrunner, despite the early setbacks.

01-30-20 Giuliani cartoon

After Iowa and New Hampshire the different candidates focused on widely different primaries. Giuliani bet big on Florida, whose primary was Jan. 29. He was going to use victory there as his stepping stone to a massive win on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.

Florida seemed by all logic to be Giuliani country: There were hundreds of thousands of transplanted New Yorkers, especially on the east coast. They knew and presumably loved him. He had a 20-point lead in the polls. He concentrated his campaigning and resources early in the year and his rivals didn’t start their Florida campaigns until late in the month. Rallies around the state were well-organized long in advance of the primary. Media attention, both national and local, continued to focus on him and his presidential prospects.

And yet, Giuliani didn’t catch fire. His rallies were sparsely attended. The vigor and enthusiasm emptied out of his campaign like gas leaking from a balloon. Other candidates raced down to Florida to campaign. At the last minute Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain.

In the end, McCain won Florida with 36 percent of the vote, reaping all the state’s 57 delegates to the Republican convention. He was followed by Mitt Romney with 31 percent and Giuliani trailing with only 14 percent.

The next day Giuliani dropped out of the race.

The Bloomberg bid

This year Michael Bloomberg got into the Democratic race on Nov. 24, much later than his Democratic rivals, who at their greatest extent included 25 candidates. He has not participated in any Democratic debates and he is not going to be on the ballot in any of the early primary elections.

Instead, Bloomberg is concentrating on key battleground states in the later rounds of primaries: California, Texas—and Florida.

“The road to the White House goes through Florida, is the saying,” Bloomberg told the Miami Herald. “That’s probably true.”

What ground Bloomberg lost with his late entry, he is trying to make up with heavy television advertising, a very professional campaign organization and a lot of spending. In January he spent $14.3 million in Florida, according to Politico. In December he spent about $2 million a week. He’s been hiring staff who worked on the campaign of Tallahassee mayor and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum.

Then and now

There are some very significant differences between the Bloomberg campaign and Giuliani’s 2008 effort.

The first is the calendar. In 2008, the Florida primary preceded Super Tuesday when 24 states and American Samoa held their primaries on the same day. Giuliani viewed Florida as a stepping stone.

This year the process is reversed. Florida’s March 17 primary follows Super Tuesday on March 3 when 15 states and Democrats abroad vote. As a result, the nominee may already be known by the time Floridians go to the polls. However, if Super Tuesday doesn’t settle the matter, Florida very well could be the state that does.

So if Florida was a stepping stone in 2008, it could be the capstone in 2020.

Also, while Bloomberg is skipping the initial four primaries, he can’t ignore or write off all the pre-Florida primaries the way Giuliani did. In addition to California and Texas, Bloomberg is investing in other Super Tuesday states.

Bloomberg is not precisely following the Giuliani model. Nonetheless, there are interesting parallels between the two men and their campaigns.

The commonalities

Some of Giuliani’s and Bloomberg’s shared characteristics are blindingly obvious: Both are New Yorkers and both served as the city’s Republican mayors.

Fun historical fact: Sept. 11, 2001 happened to be New York City’s mayoral primary day. Rudy Giuliani was limited to two terms and was stepping down. Because of the terrorist attacks, the primary was postponed (to the best of this author’s ability to determine the only time in American history that an election has been postponed, including during wartime).

After the attacks, Giuliani wanted to stay on as mayor and there was some support for the idea given the city’s challenges. Initially, he wanted the term limits lifted so that he could run for a third term. For all the adoration he was receiving and for all his supporters’ efforts to change the law, the state legislators who held the power to make the alteration were unalterably opposed. To them and much of the media, it seemed like a naked power grab.

With this third term hopes dashed, Giuliani attempted to have his term extended by three months. Two of the three mayoral candidates hoping to replace him agreed to the three-month extension. The third, Fernando Ferrer, refused. The state legislature also refused to condone it.

Ultimately, with great reluctance and little grace, Giuliani gave up his efforts and endorsed the Republican nominee for mayor: Michael Bloomberg, who won the general election and took office on Jan. 1, 2002.

In addition to Giuliani and Bloomberg’s obvious commonalities there are other, related ones: both men are essentially political centrists and both are outliers in their respective parties.

Whatever he may be today, in 2008 Giuliani was essentially a center-rightist. He’d been tough on crime in New York before 9/11 made him the nation’s foremost anti-terrorism crusader. Nonetheless, when he ran for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination he was viewed by the Party faithful as a big-city, anti-gun, social liberal. He’d had dysfunctional family relationships and been married three times, which made evangelicals uncomfortable.

As his rival Mitt Romney put it at the time: “I don’t think the Republican Party will choose a pro-choice, pro-gay civil union candidate to lead our party.”

01-30-20 Giuliani family values cartoon

Romney was right. Giuliani didn’t sit well at all with the Party activists who decided primaries, especially in Florida. And all those transplanted New Yorkers he was counting on? They were all Democrats.

For his part, Bloomberg started political life as a Democrat, in 2001 switched to Republican to run for mayor and became an Independent in 2007. Last year he became a Democrat again and is now running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Long-time Democrats can be forgiven if they are somewhat skeptical of his political loyalties.

Most Democrats are also suspicious of Bloomberg’s wealth. Prior to his political career he built his fortune through Bloomberg LP, a global financial services, software and mass media company that made him the eleventh richest person in the United States with an estimated fortune of $60.5 billion in 2020, according to Forbes.

It’s that kind of wealth that allows him to make his self-financed presidential bid. But it doesn’t sit well with a party trying to mobilize the economic 99 percent and it also opens him to charges of trying to buy the election.

For all their differences and party allegiances, both Giuliani and Bloomberg share core values born of New York City realities: social tolerance leavened with an emphasis on law and order; support for immigrants and immigration; a global outlook; laissez-faire business encouragement; and a simple, pragmatic belief in common-sense good governance.

The BIGLIEST difference…

Into this mix in 2016 came yet another New Yorker: Donald J. Trump. His political presence marks the biggest difference between 2008 and 2020.

It is interesting that Giuliani, Bloomberg and Trump all worked with each other in New York, doing deals, moving in the same social circles and boosting the city. They know each other well and all come out of the same cauldron. They’re also all of the same generation: Giuliani is 75 years old, Bloomberg 77, Trump 73.

In 2008, Trump was a political nonentity who had no impact on the presidential race. Eight years later, Trump propelled Giuliani and Bloomberg in different directions.

In 2016, Giuliani signed on to the Trump team, campaigned for him and evolved (or devolved, depending on your perspective) into a Trump “killer lawyer”—a fixer and factotum, defender and deal maker. Submitting to his master’s whims and delusions, in the eyes of most of the sane world Giuliani appears today as a Trump puppet and enabler, a toadying sycophant and slavish servant whose behavior even Trump sometimes regards as bizarre. According to author Michael Wolff in the book Siege, Giuliani volunteered to work for Trump for free when the president was under investigation by Robert Mueller (as opposed to lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who demanded $1 million per month and was initially refused).

Bloomberg, by contrast, saw the danger Trump presented from the time that Trump launched his campaign. It was the reason that he addressed the Democratic National Convention in support of Hillary Clinton in 2016.

01-30-20 Bloomberg at Dem convention 2016 — Michael Bloomberg addresses the 2016 Democratic Convention.

“I’m a New Yorker, and New Yorkers know a con when we see one!” Bloomberg memorably said in that speech. “Truth be told, the richest thing about Donald Trump is his hypocrisy.” He warned that Trump, whom he called “a dangerous demagogue,” threatened America’s economy, trade and unity.

“The bottom line is: Trump is a risky, reckless, and radical choice. And we can’t afford to make that choice,” he warned.

But by whatever magic, that was the choice that was made and Bloomberg has not let up in his opposition to Trump.

“I’m running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America,” he stated in the announcement of his 2020 campaign. “We cannot afford four more years of President Trump’s reckless and unethical actions. He represents an existential threat to our country and our values. If he wins another term in office, we may never recover from the damage. The stakes could not be higher. We must win this election. And we must begin rebuilding America.”

On a more pragmatic basis, Bloomberg apparently fears that the Democratic center cannot hold during the primary process and Trump may win the general election. And so he entered the race.

So will it play in Florida?

Polls, both national and statewide, will be going up and down between now and the presidential primary and the only one that counts is the one on Election Day. That said, a St.PetePolls.org poll of 2,590 likely Florida Democratic presidential primary voters conducted on Monday and Tuesday (January 27 and 28) found Bloomberg coming in second behind former Vice President Joe Biden by 41.3 percent to 17.3 percent.

Apparently those TV ads are having an impact.

Bloomberg’s spending could make possible the Florida sidestep strategy that Rudy Giuliani was unable to implement in 2008.

Ironically, the biggest factor in Bloomberg’s candidacy may not be Bloomberg—but Trump. If Trump remains in office despite impeachment he will feel he has “won” and is likely to claim complete exoneration. With a sense that he has no restraints or restrictions, his actions and statements are likely to become even more dangerous, daring and deranged and he just may drive Florida Democrats toward Bloomberg’s centrism.

Regardless of whether the strategy works, Bloomberg is certainly right about one thing: Donald Trump represents an existential threat to democracy and the future of the United States.

Can Bloomberg build sufficient support to overcome the kind of party opposition to his campaign that Giuliani faced in 2008? Can Bloomberg beat Joe Biden in the Democratic fight for the center? And can he get the nomination?

This year it’s Florida’s Democratic voters who may hold the answer.

Liberty lives in light

Passion and pragmatism: The Democratic path to victory

People march in Naples, Fla., on Jan. 21, 2017 following the inauguration of President Donald Trump to protest his attitudes toward women. (Photo: author)

Dec. 10, 2019 by David Silverberg

Doris Cortese has a nightmare.

The 80-year-old “godmother” of Lee County Republican politics told NBC-2’s Dave Elias in a Nov. 12 interview that her worst fear is that someday Lee County could turn blue.

“I was worried about it. I hope and pray it never happens,” Cortese said.

11-12-19 Godmother of Lee GOP — Doris Cortese is interviewed by NBC-2’s Dave Elias.

Making Cortese’s nightmare come true is exactly what every local Democrat dreams of accomplishing—and not just Lee County but all of Southwest Florida.

But Democrats are under no illusions. No Democrat goes into an election in Southwest Florida thinking that the race will be easy—and no one is ever disappointed.

The race is hard, the path is steep, the odds are long and the obstacles daunting. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done or that victory is unattainable.

So how can a Democrat win in Southwest Florida? This analysis focuses on the 19th Congressional District, the coastal strip from Cape Coral to Marco Island and the congressional race, but many of the structural issues apply as well to Southwest Florida state legislative districts and districts.

First, let’s survey the obstacles.

The structural impediments

The first thing any candidate looks at are the relative registration rolls and for many the story is told right there: In Lee County, as of Dec. 9, there were 196,365 Republicans or 42 percent; 124,693 Democrats or 27 percent; and 141,563 “others” or 31 percent. In Collier County it was 105,320 Republicans or 52 percent; 48,130 Democrats or 23 percent; and 50,300 “others” or 25 percent.

The party disparity is reinforced through gerrymandering, which keeps potentially Democratic communities like Lehigh Acres and Golden Gate outside the 19th District and absorbed into the largely Republican 17th and 25th districts.

As a result of the Republican majority, all elected public officials are Republican. What is more, the local media tend to be dismissive of Democratic candidates, ignoring their activities, their statements, their stands on the issues and their campaigns. And Republican dominance gives them a tremendous fundraising advantage.

Republican dominance is ironic, given Florida’s past as a solidly southern Democratic state. However, like the rest of the south, Florida began becoming more Republican beginning in the 1950s. President Richard Nixon’s “southern strategy” accelerated the trend in 1968 and 1972. Republicans took over the state house in 1996.

Even so, Florida has been a finely divided toss-up state in election after election.

That see-saw battle, however, has not applied along the Paradise Coast. Naples is the southernmost point of Interstate Highway 75, which comes straight down from the Canadian border, through Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia. As a result, since the highway’s completion in the 1970s, the area has seen a steady influx of Republicans from the colder regions of the upper Midwest, both as snowbirds and permanent residents. The influx continues today.

If one presumes that past is future, there is no reason not to suppose that this situation will continue. People from Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, mostly Republicans, will continue migrating hither. Republican dominance could be indefinite.

But past trends in this case do not guarantee future returns.

What a Democrat must do to win

How many votes must a Democratic candidate get to win a congressional seat in the 19th Congressional District?

We can begin by looking at the last two general elections, one a midterm, the other a presidential election. (Figures used here come from Ballotpedia.)

In 2018, a total of 339,607 votes were cast for this office. Francis Rooney won 211,465 or 62.3 percent, David Holden won 128,106 or 37.7 percent and “other” votes came to only 36 votes.

But how much higher is the turnout in a presidential election year? In 2016, voter turnout was 363,166. This was Francis Rooney’s first election and he won 239,225 votes or 65.9 percent against Robert Neeld, who without doing any campaigning, won 123,812 or 34.1 percent of the vote. In this election “other” votes came to 129 votes.

Two years later, with vigorous campaigning, fundraising and television advertising, Holden was able to raise the Democratic percentage from the previous election from 34.1 percent to 37.7 percent.

Despite that fluctuation, it’s fairly safe to say that the percentages of Republican to Democratic vote totals in SWFL usually break down to around 65 percent to 35 percent. This has also held true in state races, so it’s a credible assumption.

Turnout in 2020 is likely to be higher than ever before in Southwest Florida. This author is going to project a total vote of 400,000. To win, a candidate would have to get at least 200,001 votes, although 51 percent is a more realistic goal, which in this scenario comes to 204,000 votes.

If the vote total is split 65 to 35 percent, that yields 260,000 Republican to 140,000 Democratic votes. Any Democratic candidate needs to add 64,000 new votes to the Democratic total to reach 51 percent. To be safe, though, it’s better to shoot for 53 percent, or 212,000 votes. That means the Democrat must win 72,000 new votes.

(Editor’s note: Readers are welcome to challenge these numbers and assumptions and provide their own conclusions in comments on the article. However, the one proviso is that to be credible you must show your work: your data, your sources and your calculations.)

Where are so many new votes to be found? Obviously, they must come from the existing base of registered voters.

In this regard new circumstances have upended the old status quo and opened new populations to Democratic candidates. These circumstances are:

The Trump factor

A crowd at the Collier County fairgrounds reacts to candidate Donald Trump’s denunciation of the media on Oct. 23, 2016. (Photo: the author)

For local Republicans, Donald Trump is both their greatest asset and their greatest liability.

He’s an asset in that he can fire up his local base. He’s already proved that with local rallies in 2016, 2018 and with two rallies in 2019, one in Orlando and the other in Sunrise. These events, which are combinations of circus, carnival, worship service and presidential therapy session, indisputably build adoration for him among the faithful. He can be expected to hold at least one in Southwest Florida in the run-up to the election, particularly since Florida is a crucial state for him and he’s now officially a resident. (A first-hand account of a Trump rally by this author can be seen here.)

Trump’s also a liability in that his behavior, his actions, his insults and his increasing irrationality offend and repulse thinking people and many traditional Republicans.

Such Republicans have been expressing themselves openly since his election in 2016. In October 2018, William MacArthur of Naples wrote in a letter published in the Naples Daily News that “Even though I’ve been a Republican for most of my life, as was my father before me, I cannot justify to my grandchildren my voting for Rep. Francis Rooney, senatorial candidate Rick Scott or gubernatorial candidate Ron Desantis.” More recently, in a Nov. 27, 2019 letter in the Naples Daily News, Bruce Beardsley of Naples stated, “It is with increased shame that I admit to still being registered as a member of the Republican Party. The Republican Party exists in name only. It has become the Party of Trump.”

Trumpers dismiss such people as RINOs—Republicans in name only—but the fact is that the more bizarre and offensive the president’s behavior and pronouncements, the more disastrous his decisions, and with impeachment bringing out evidence of his corruption, the larger their ranks grow. That said, their local numbers may not be sufficient to make the decisive difference at election time. But every Republican that Trump drives away from the Grand Old Party is one more vote that’s potentially Democratic, or at the very least, not Republican.

“Grab ‘em by the …”

Protesters at the second women’s march in Naples, on Jan. 20, 2018. (Photo: author)

From the day in 2016 when he was overheard crudely boasting of his sexual exploits, Trump has offended and demeaned women and they have lashed back. It started the day after Trump’s inauguration when millions of women around the world took to the streets to protest, including robust turnout in Southwest Florida.

Women have been motivated to run for office like never before and it made a difference in turning Congress in 2018. Will the same outrage and energy manifest itself in 2020—especially in Southwest Florida where women constitute a majority in Lee County (51.1 percent) and half of Collier County (50.7 percent)?

It’s incorrect to discuss a “women’s vote” as though women are a uniform, unthinking bloc. Like all voters, female voters are diverse and while they share some commonalities, making generalities—on either side—can be a grave error. In Southwest Florida, women for Trump have turned out in numbers at his rallies, while anti-Trump protestors have made impressive showings at demonstrations and protest marches.

That said, national polls have consistently shown women having an unfavorable view of Trump’s conduct and supporting impeachment and removal by much higher proportions than men. Unfortunately, a lack of demographic sampling in Southwest Florida—at least sampling whose results are publicly available—means that numbers cannot be put to local women’s attitudes in this article.

One issue that has mobilized politically active women is the question of abortion and provision of women’s health services. In Southwest Florida, the Trumper candidates are almost uniformly anti-choice, at least those who have expressed themselves on the issue. State Rep. Dane Eagle, the leading candidate for the Republican congressional nomination, is vehemently anti-choice and has a legislative history of trying to restrict and reduce women’s health options and abortion access.

Trump is also opposed to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and his administration has done everything it can to gut the program, something that also doesn’t sit well with voters who care about health and family issues.

So it may be that female Republican voters offended by Trump and opposed to Trumpist attitudes on healthcare and women’s health issues offer one of the best opportunities for a Democratic candidate to win over new votes.

The uncommitted

The number of voters who are not registering with either major party has grown in recent years and now constitute 31 percent of Lee County voters and 25 percent of Collier County, according to Election Office figures.

(Terminology note: Independent voters and non-party affiliated (NPA) voters are not the same. There is an Independence Party of Florida, so technically, “independents” are actually members of a party. In this article non-party affiliated voters will be referred to as NPAs.)

Theoretically, the “other” voters represent a rich source of votes. However, the appearance is deceptive. NPAs may not register with a party out of laziness, indifference or ignorance rather than conviction, meaning that they may not bother to vote at election time.

Susan McManus, a professor at the University of South Florida, addressed the issue in an undated essay appearing in the Sayfie Review: “Who and Where are Florida’s Democrats and Republicans? A Statistical Comparison.”

“Although great emphasis is placed upon the importance of winning independent voters, their vote has been relatively evenly split in the recent past,” she wrote. “In 2008, Obama won the independent vote by only 7 percent and, in 2012, Rick Scott won the independent vote by a similarly small margin (8 percent).”

So while there is no reliable survey data, the likelihood is that NPA votes may split in the same proportion as party votes. In short, NPAs can be won over but it would be a mistake to assume that they can make the decisive difference.

The turning of the suburbs

More encouraging to Democrats is the fact that in recent elections previously Trumpist suburbs have been going Democratic. The 19th Congressional District is considered 66.4 percent suburban.

On Nov. 6, Democrats made great gains in Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania thanks in large part to suburban voters. Indeed, the Pennsylvania results were considered particularly significant.

“The biggest red flag I’d be worrying about is Pennsylvania,” Russ Schriefer, a Republican strategist wrote to The Washington Post after the election. “[It is a] key, targeted state and critical to the Trump coalition. Yet Democrats cleaned up in the suburbs, sweeping in Delaware County — a county with a 30,000 [Republican] plurality and under [Republican] control since the Civil War, an area filled with college-educated, upper/middle income, primarily white voters that were once the bedrock of the Republican Party.”

That seems to describe suburban sentiment across the country.

Southwest Florida is not Delaware County but in 2020 attitudes could change.

New northern influxes

Although Midwesterners provide the majority population in the district, there are increasing numbers of northeasterners coming to Southwest Florida, particularly from Massachusetts and states like New Jersey. Unfortunately, no hard figures are publicly available and not all these northeasterners are Democrats or liberals. Nonetheless, they may provide additional votes for Democratic candidates.

Seniors, youth and families

Southwest Florida has very high proportions of seniors: 28.6 percent of Lee County is 65 years old or older and 32.2 percent of Collier County. (The national average is 16 percent.) In the past, these voters have tended to be conservative and voted Republican.

However, there are increasing numbers of more youthful voters entering the polling places and especially family-age voters. Nationally, younger voters are trending Democratic. This may also occur in Southwest Florida, particularly in Cape Coral, which has a higher proportion of families with school-age children than in the rest of the district.

Trump policies are neither senior-friendly nor family-friendly. Trump’s international trade policies are driving up prices, eroding the purchasing power of fixed-income seniors. While Trump boasts of his job creation, he’s been no friend to retirees. There have been indications that Trump and Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are taking aim at Social Security and plan to make significant cuts to the program if Trump is re-elected, which would be devastating to Southwest Florida seniors. If Southwest Florida seniors take this into account they could turn against Republicans.

Trump’s relentless war on the Affordable Care Act, while very satisfying emotionally to his followers, is at odds with the national popularity of affordable healthcare, which is a particular concern of Southwest Florida’s many seniors and parents. It may be an issue that Democrats can leverage to their advantage.

The minority vote

President Barack Obama inspired unprecedented minority turnout for his candidacy. Memories of that support linger in many Democratic minds and minority votes, particularly among African Americans and Hispanics who have been so brutally scapegoated and denigrated by Trump, may make a difference nationally in 2020.

But Southwest Florida in general and the 19th Congressional District in particular, are overwhelmingly white—86.8 percent in Lee County, 89.3 percent in Collier County, which translates into 83 percent in the District.

Even if every single eligible minority voter turned out and voted Democratic—and minority turnout has historically been low—it would not be enough to turn the District Democratic.

In 2018 an inordinate amount of local Democratic time and effort was spent on minority campaigning. There is a Democratic commitment to fairness and civil rights that powers this. But while those minority votes are important and will add to Democratic totals—and remember, not all minority votes will be Democratic—the fact of the matter is that while winning minority votes is important, a Democrat is going to have to tear votes away from the white Republican majority in order to win.

That said, statewide, Democrats are making a new push to register and motivate minority voters. Former gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum announced on Dec. 5 that he would be leading a new effort to engage and mobilize young and minority voters across the state and that may have some impact in Southwest Florida.

Hopes and fears

As overwhelming as the task before Southwest Florida Democrats may seem, there are favorable omens around the country.

Again and again since 2016, Democrats have won elections in deep red states like Alabama and Kentucky and turned long-Republican districts in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

In 2020 much will depend on who is nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. Floridians don’t get to weigh in on the question until very late in the process, the presidential preference primary on March 17, when the nominee will probably be known. But a winning national candidate could translate into local momentum.

Winning characteristics

To overcome the obstacles and deficits and win the general election, the Democratic candidate in the 19th Congressional District has to be a fighter, someone who is exceptionally aggressive and energetic. This person will have to be able to connect with people on an emotional level and be both passionate as well as pragmatic. She or he must win over reluctant and recalcitrant voters and give traditional Republicans who have doubts about a second Trump presidency the motivation to vote Democratic, many for the first time. This person will have to be backed by exceptionally committed and energetic activists in both Lee and Collier counties. And robust fundraising abilities certainly will not hurt.

Such a scenario may not have been seen before but that’s not to say it can’t happen at all. What’s past is not necessarily prologue.

And so, on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, Doris Cortese, the godmother of Lee County Republican politics, may just wake up to discover that her nightmare has come true—Southwest Florida has turned blue.

Liberty lives in light

The fight on the right: The Republican battle for Congress in Southwest Florida

An image from State Rep. Dane Eagle’s announcement video.

Dec. 2, 2019 by David Silverberg

It took 18 days from the time Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) announced his retirement from Congress on Oct. 19 until State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) made his own announcement on Nov. 6.

“Our values, our way of life and our president are under attack from the far left, the media and even some in our own Republican Party,” Eagle warned ominously in a video statement on Twitter, that subtly lashed out at Rooney.

Against a dark, grayed-out, brooding image of protesters and then a picture of “The Squad” of four Democratic members of Congress, Eagle declared: “Washington has been infiltrated by radical socialists who despise our Constitution and detest our freedoms. They know President Trump is winning, they know he is making America great again and they will stop at nothing to destroy it.”

And so battle was joined on the Republican side and the tone was set for the coming contest.

In the days following Rooney’s abrupt announcement, Southwest Florida’s Republican politicians had some hard thinking to do. The seat was open. The primary on Aug. 18 of the following year would likely determine the election and so this was both an opportunity but one with risk and danger.

One by one the most likely Party candidates took themselves out of the running: State Sen. Lizabeth Benaquisto (R-27), who ran in the 2014 congressional primary, issued a statement saying that “running for Congress in 2020 is not the right path for me and my family… .” State Sen. Kathleen Passidomo (R-28) demurred. Former Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott said that he wasn’t running.

Then, the day before Thanksgiving, Nov. 26, Mayor Randall (Randy) Henderson of Fort Myers announced that he would be running for the seat.

The opportunity to file for the seat is open until noon, April 24, so more candidates may enter. Prime possibilities include State Reps. Byron Donalds (R-80), Bob Rommel (R-106) and Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78).

However, the longer they wait, the more difficult their runs.

The current contenders

Dane Eagle

Dane Eagle is a 36-year-old resident of Cape Coral who attended the University of Florida where he earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics. He started out selling real estate and was a broker associate for Commercial Real Estate Consultants in Fort Myers.

But Eagle had early political ambitions and showed promise. At the age of 24, he served as Republican Gov. Charlie Crist’s deputy chief of staff, the youngest person ever to hold that office.

In 2012, the first election after new maps were drawn following the census, Eagle ran for the state legislature in the newly-created 77th District encompassing Cape Coral. In the primary he was up against former city councilman Christopher Berardi and won by 70.6 percent. (Berardi is today Rooney’s press secretary.) Eagle then went on to win the general election against African-American Democrat Arvella Clare by 62.4 percent to Clare’s 37.6 percent.

Once in the legislature, Eagle began a remarkably rapid rise—but it was practically over before it began. On April 21, 2014, at age 31 and the start of his second term he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol in Tallahassee. At 2 am, after nearly colliding with another car and bumping a curb, he was pulled over by a police officer who smelled alcohol and found Eagle’s eyes bloodshot and watery. Eagle denied drinking but stumbled getting out of his car and refused to take a field sobriety test. He blamed the alcohol odor on previous passengers. The policeman’s dashcam video of the entire incident was released to the public.

Eagle’s arrest on April 21, 2014.

In a subsequent statement to constituents he acknowledged that “while there are some decisions that I would have made differently” he said that the full story had not been told and contended that legal proceedings meant he could not discuss it further. Three months later he pleaded guilty to a charge of reckless driving and received six months of probation, had to take alcohol tests and perform 100 hours of community service.

The arrest notwithstanding, Eagle continued a robust legislative career that featured his sponsoring legislation consistent with conservative Republican orthodoxy. He sponsored or co-sponsored legislation to increase criminalization of various aspects of abortion, increase penalties for offenses committed by undocumented aliens (which died in committee), called for a supermajority vote of the legislature to raise any state taxes or fees, and sought to reduce penalties for openly displaying weapons if the person has a concealed weapon permit.

Eagle’s legislative record earned him an “A” rating from the anti-taxation Americans for Prosperity and a 2019 “F” rating from the People First Report Card for his votes on the environment, immigration, public schools, healthcare and other issues.

Eagle had a relatively easy time electorally. In 2014 he defeated three other primary challengers, winning 64.1 percent of 12,410 votes cast and then cruised to victory over Independent Jeremy Wood. He was unopposed in both the primary and general elections of 2016.

In 2018 he won with 63.4 percent of the vote against Democrat Alanis Garcia, the first trans-gender candidate to run in a Florida election.

He also rose through Republican ranks in the legislature, becoming House Majority Whip in 2016 and then House Majority Leader in 2018.

On Oct. 1 of this year at a church in Iceland, he married Brooke Iwanski, a chiropractor based in Fort Myers.

Randall Henderson

11-27-19 Randy Henderson — Randy Henderson

Randall (Randy) Henderson is the 63-year-old mayor of Fort Myers, an office he has held since 2009. As of this writing he had announced his candidacy but not yet legally filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Born in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Henderson has an extensive record in government. He served on the Fort Myers City Council for nine years before running for mayor and is now in his third term, the first Fort Myers mayor to serve that long.

Professionally he has a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Mars Hill College, Mars Hill, North Carolina, and is a licensed real estate broker in both North Carolina and Florida. He came to Fort Myers in 1979 to take a position with the Ellis Banking Corporation. He left banking in 1986 to join the Corbin Henderson Company, a family-owned firm specializing in office, warehouse and light industrial and multifamily real estate. He’s been very active in civic and business groups

Electorally, Henderson has had some big advantages. During his tenure mayoral races have been held in off-years and the primary election served as the general election. Turnout was extremely low. Henderson won his first race in 2009 with a mere 1,777 votes. In 2013, he won with 65.2 percent of only 886 votes cast, a mere 23 percent turnout of the eligible registered voters. In the 2017 election he won with just 4,073 votes, 70 percent of 20,782 votes cast. (Starting next year, Fort Myers will hold its elections on the same days as presidential primaries and general elections.)

“My 10 years as mayor, including nine years on the City Council, has provided insight and vast experience working in the public sector including solving complex issues while improving the quality of life for the citizens of Fort Myers,” Henderson stated when he announced. “I believe this experience provides me the background to lead the charge for serving citizens in District 19 and bring focus and support from Washington to our district.”

He’s been married to his wife Ginny for 40 years and they have three children: Laura, Marcus, and Alex.

Antonio Dumornay

Antonio Dumornay is a Miami native who grew up in Naples. The father of three, he began getting involved in local politics in 2015 in the City of Naples and served on a Community Redevelopment Advisory Board.

In a July 3, 2017 meeting at the Unitarian Universalist Sanctuary in Naples covered by the Naples Daily News, Dumornay related his personal experience as an inmate in the criminal justice system. He was arrested selling drugs, which he said he did to support his family during a crisis. He did hard labor and was paid 10 cents an hour “but we didn’t get paid. They promised us gain time, but we didn’t get that either.”

At the meeting Dumornay said was creating an organization to keep people out of the criminal justice system.

On his campaign website Dumornay states that he is concentrating his campaign on community and small business development, infrastructure and education improvement, youth career training and Medicaid expansion.

William Figlesthaler

William Figlesthaler is a Naples-based urologist who is making his first run for public office. According to his professional biography he’s a cum laude alumnus of Wake Forest University and graduated with honors from the University of North Carolina School of Medicine at Chapel Hill, NC. He then completed his urological surgery training at the University of Kentucky, in Lexington, Kentucky. His specialty is treating prostate cancer.

As of this writing he has not yet posted a campaign website and his positions were only made public in a Nov. 7 interview with NBC-2’s Dave Elias.

In that interview Figlesthaler stated that he’s completely loyal to President Trump. “I will be loyal to the president. All the way. I believe in Donald Trump’s policies,” he told Elias.

At the same time he demurred when asked if he supported all of Trump’s statements and tweets. “I mean that is a loaded question. He’s not our messiah. He’s not somebody who says, ‘Oh my goodness I worship this man. [sic]’”

Figlesthaler’s second wife, Olga, is a Russian immigrant.

Daniel Severson

Daniel Severson, 65, of Cape Coral, is a graduate of St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minn., where he graduated in 1979 with a bachelor’s degree in physics. He enlisted in the Navy in 1978 and served as a Navy fighter pilot, officer and commander until 2000.

In 2002 he won election to the Minnesota House of Delegates where he represented District 14A until 2011 and served as minority whip. In 2010 he ran for Secretary of State but lost to incumbent Democrat Mark Ritchie by 49 percent to Severson’s 46 percent.

In 2012 Severson sought the Republican nomination for the US Senate to run against incumbent Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar. However, he lost the party’s endorsement at the state convention and withdrew from consideration. He was narrowly defeated in his second bid for Secretary of State in 2014, losing to Democrat Steve Simon, who won with 47 percent of the vote to Severson’s 45.9 percent.

On his campaign Facebook page Severson states: “During these impeachment hearings, it is important to remember the American people supported President Trump when they elected him in 2016, and we continue to support him going into 2020. We’ve got your back Mr. President!”

He also states: “Donald J. Trump and Mike Pence are men of God serving in the White House,” and “Christians need to put people of faith back in leadership across all sectors of public office!”

When it comes to the Second Amendment he states: “I am the only person in this race who can truly say I support our Constitutionally protected right to bear arms, which includes assault weapons. As your Representative to the U.S. House, I will fight all legislation that undermines the 2nd Amendment in the slightest.”

Severson is married to Cathy Jo Severson.

Analysis: The fight on the right

OK, we’ve done our due diligence, now let’s get real. As of this writing, there are two credible candidates in this race: Dane Eagle and Randy Henderson.

They both have the name recognition, the historical records, the experience and the access to funding to make them genuine contenders.

An Eagle-Henderson race is going to be an interesting one for a number of reasons:

It pits a Trumper against a Republican

As his video demonstrated, Eagle is tying himself entirely to Trump and playing the conspiracy card, warning of socialist infiltration of government. He has established his campaign on national themes and absolute allegiance to and adoration of Trump, which can be expected to continue.

Henderson, by contrast, is basing his campaign on local issues and his record. He told the News-Press that he intends to run a clean race emphasizing the environment, quality of life, business expansion, infrastructure modernization and disaster resilience issues.

This race is shaping up as a contest between the Trump Cult and the Republican Party for the souls of Southwest Floridians.

It’s a contest of generations

Eagle is 36, Henderson is 63 (a nice bit of numerology there!). Each brings a different generational perspective. With 27 percent of the district 65 or older (28.6 percent in Lee County, 32.2 percent in Collier County), it will be interesting to see which candidate can elicit the greater loyalty from the area’s seniors.

It pits Cape Coral against Fort Myers

Each candidate has his own geographical base, Eagle in Cape Coral, Henderson in Fort Myers. According to current census figures, Cape Coral, the fastest growing city in the country, has 189,343 residents as of July 2018, Fort Myers, 82,254.

Can the personal and ideological appeal of each candidate retain his geographic base and expand it sufficiently to win the nomination?

Turnout will be everything

Robust turnout is always key to an election and that is certainly true in this case. Each candidate will have to motivate his followers to get to the polls by primary day, Aug. 18 amidst the deathly stillness of a Florida summer and the uncertainties of hurricane season—not on Nov. 3, when turnout in the general election should be very big given the presidential election.

Follow the money

This race is going to be more expensive than any either of these candidates have previously run. Will the money come from local donations or contributors outside the district? The sources of funding will say much about whom the winner will serve should he attain office.

Past and future

Both candidates have had a relatively easy time in their past elections.

In his general elections Eagle was up against Democratic candidates who were outside the Cape Coral mainstream: an African-American woman and a transgender person and in 2016 he ran unopposed. This time he’ll be facing a mainstream candidate with a strong record.

Henderson always ran for mayor in off-year elections when the primary was the main contest and turnout was extremely low, requiring few votes to win. Now he’s running in a jurisdiction with over 500,000 registered voters and turnout is likely to be high, given that it’s a presidential election year. He’s going to need lots of money and very vigorous campaigning to win.

Funding and endorsements will be key elements. Eagle has started strongly with numerous endorsements and a reported $100,000 raised in the first few hours of the campaign (although this is based on campaign claims, not on official FEC filings).

The tendency of candidates in any primary contest in any party is to gravitate toward the extremes. Primary voters tend to be people who hold strong political beliefs and are active in party activities. That certainly seems to be the case here.

Already, three of the five declared Republican candidates are vying to show that they are “Trumpier than thou,” so to speak. Like worshipers of some inscrutable god who expresses himself through volcanoes and hurricanes, they appear to hope the sincerity of their belief and their obedience to his commands will be rewarded by divine favor—or votes of the party faithful.

Ironically, the litmus test of true Trumpiness appears to be attitudes on impeachment, which actually has nothing to do with these candidates’ rising class in Congress. Only Rooney, already sitting in Congress, will actually get a substantive vote on anything having to do with impeachment. By the time any of the candidates are elected to the 117th Congress in November 2020, the entire political landscape may have changed and impeachment may no longer be an issue.

Nonetheless, it’s an emotional hot button in Southwest Florida conservative circles—as it is around the nation.

By the time this is posted, other candidates may have jumped in the Republican primary race.

The 2020 election is shaping up to be the most crucial in American history. On a national level, it will likely decide whether the nation remains a democracy—and even whether it has future elections.

Southwest Florida will reflect in microcosm all the nation’s conflicts. It makes for an interesting election—and a potentially cataclysmic one.

Coming next: How a Democrat can win in Southwest Florida

Category: Analysis

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People march in Naples, Fla., on Jan. 21, 2017 following the inauguration of President Donald Trump to protest his attitudes toward women. (Photo: author)

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The fight on the right: The Republican battle for Congress in Southwest Florida

An image from State Rep. Dane Eagle’s announcement video.

Eagle’s arrest on April 21, 2014.

Liberty lives in light