An effort to explain why Donald Trump is threatening Canada, Panama, Greenland/Denmark, and wants to re-name the Gulf of Mexico.
WARNING! This article contains a conspiracy theory!
A map of the new world order? Possible division of the world under the Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping triumvirate. Dark colors denote direct governance, lighter colors denote spheres of influence. (Map: Author)
Jan. 10, 2025 by David Silverberg
This essay is a theory. About a conspiracy.
It’s a theory because there’s no proof. None of the participants have made this explicit.
But in looking ahead at America’s possible role in the world in 2025, on Jan. 2, The Paradise Progressive argued that when—and if—Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20, he will complete a triumvirate of leaders that include Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. (Part 2—Defying darkness: Anticipating the year ahead abroad and the new triumvirate.)
It’s the most exclusive club in the world. Only three members are allowed.
Since that was published, on Jan. 7 Trump held an hour-long press conference at his Mar-a-Lago, Florida headquarters—and did nothing to dispel the conspiracy indications.
In a digressive ramble he included allegations that gas-powered space heaters are better than electric, “As the expression goes, you don’t itch;” that wind-driven turbines “are driving the whales crazy, obviously;” and that water pressure in showers is too low, “you’re in the shower ten times as long.” (On a personal note: this author agrees but doesn’t believe it’s a presidential-level issue.)
But Trump also made statements regarding foreign affairs and geography that, while bizarre, should be taken seriously.
On the Gulf of Mexico: “We’re going to be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot of territory. The Gulf of America, what a beautiful name and it’s appropriate.”
On his desire to annex Canada, the US would not use military force: “No—economic force because Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security.”
On relations with Panama and the future of the Panama Canal: “They laugh at us because they think we’re stupid, but we’re not stupid anymore. So the Panama Canal is under discussion with them right now.”
On the US purchase of Greenland: “Well, we need Greenland for national security purposes.”
Annexing Canada? Invading Panama? Making Denmark an offer it can’t refuse for Greenland?
It sounds like the fevered dream of a madman.
However, if in fact, Trump, Putin and Xi have actually divided the world among themselves, then Trump’s rants are not mere ravings—they’re premature expressions of what he intends to do with his portion of the world once he feels he’s taken ownership of it on Inauguration Day. They’re dots that, when connected, make a very frightening picture.
As lines drawn on a map, the Trump claims to Canada, Panama and Greenland make imperialistic sense. Trump (and along with him Elon Musk) gets North America to do with as he pleases. In his mind, Greenland is territory weakly held by Denmark that is ripe for the taking—by him.
Let us presume for a moment that he did everything he is threatening to do. The map of the Western Hemisphere would be a solid block between the North Pole and the Rio Grande with the exception of the re-claimed Panama Canal. The only independent countries would be the ones on Caribbean islands.
He could also lay claim to Mexico, Latin America and South America but other than the Panama Canal he has never shown much interest in that area or its people. In fact, his first instinct as expressed in his 2016 campaign was to wall off the United States from Mexico and the southern part of the hemisphere and keep its people out. In 2025 he doesn’t want to rule Mexico directly or the Spanish-speaking South but he wants to expel all such people originally from there who are in the United States.
People might roll their eyes at Trump’s territorial claims and think it’s just his unrestrained stream of supposed “consciousness.” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had a particularly blistering response to his idea of renaming the Gulf of Mexico, suggesting that it be called “America Mexicana” instead.
It’s hard to believe that Trump is expressing serious intentions that he might try to implement as president.
However, it’s worth remembering that his possible co-conspirators also have territorial ambitions and they’ve expressed these openly as well. Doing a deal with Putin and Xi would be the ultimate art of the deal.
Together these three presidents could conspire—and likely have already conspired together—to get what each one wants.
Putin’s plans
Putin, of course, wants Ukraine and is in the midst of a bloody war to get it. That war has been going badly in large part because of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people and their president. However, it’s also been effective because of the support of the United States for a fellow democracy and traditional American opposition to dictatorial land grabs.
If in fact the global triumvirate has divided up the world, Putin is likely promised Ukraine. He would also be able to resurrect the Soviet Union—and more.
“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Putin said in an annual state of the nation address to Russia back in April 2005. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” What was more, “The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself.” Then, he was referring to separatism as expressed in Chechnya. But he also regarded the creation of a supposedly independent Ukraine and other former Soviet republics as part of this “epidemic.”
Ever since then Putin has tried to restore the Soviet Union through subterfuge and subversion. In many instances that worked, most notably in 2014 when was able to seize Crimea. But otherwise in Ukraine the people repeatedly rejected his interference. When his machinations failed and Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and Putin knew he’d face opposition from President Joe Biden, he settled on a lightning coup, which also failed.
But Putin is likely to look at Trump’s return to office as resurrection of his dreams. In this scenario, Trump will stop supporting Ukraine and may take the United States out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trump may even go to war with Canada or Denmark, NATO allies. This will allow Putin to conquer Ukraine, perhaps the parts of Eastern Europe that were once part of the Warsaw Pact, and even bring Western Europe under the Russian sphere of influence. Trump will not lift a finger in opposition. As he has said publicly, he would let the Russians do “whatever the hell they want.”
In return, Putin will support—or certainly not object—to a Trump takeover of Greenland, Canada, and Panama by force or economic pressure.
Xi and the “inevitable”
Ever since Nationalist forces fled the Chinese mainland to Taiwan in 1948, the Chinese Communist government has laid claim to the island, threatening to take it with force when not working against it diplomatically. One way or another, China’s goal has been to bring the island back into the mainland fold.
Meanwhile, Taiwan grew increasingly democratic and independent-minded, a movement the Chinese government strenuously denounced. Recent polling showed rising support for independence by the island’s 23 million people and their distaste for Xi’s increasingly oppressive regime in Beijing.
In August 2022 then-US House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) visited Taiwan to show “unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.” The visit was stridently denounced by the Chinese government, which conducted military exercises on a very large scale to threaten the island as well as hone its forces for potential action.
In his annual speech to the nation on Dec. 31, Xi reiterated China’s opposition to Taiwan independence and his commitment to reunification.
“The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification,” he said. Reunification, he said, was “inevitable” and all Chinese “should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
If indeed there is a triumvirate conspiracy it is not hard to see that in return for Xi supporting Putin and Trump’s territorial ambitions, they would support his. Xi could conquer Taiwan and likely bring the rest of Southeast Asia into the Chinese sphere of influence.
This power grab could include South Korea, given that during his first term Trump called the South Koreans “horrible to deal with,” thought South Korea was “ripping us off” and wanted to withdraw all US troops from the peninsula. He led a rapprochement with North Korea, which is allied with China and Russia and supplying troops to fight in Ukraine.
Even if China didn’t seek direct control, leaving South Korea to the mercy of Xi and North Korea would certainly be within Trump’s worldview and would fit into the patterns of a triumvirate conspiracy. What is more, if Trump withdraws US commitments from Asia, most, if not all, of East Asia could be left in China’s sphere of influence, including such traditional Chinese adversaries as Vietnam and Japan.
The end of Pax Americana?
This year marks 80 years since the end of World War II.
That’s four generations—enough time for critical lessons to be forgotten.
Since 1945, under American leadership, the world has been governed by a rule-based order designed to respect the sovereignty of internationally recognized nations and the desires of their people as democratically expressed. It has provided an array of forums like the United Nations to air concerns and grievances, avoid armed conflict, support human needs and give all the nations of the world a say in how the globe is governed.
Having learned the lessons of World War I and II, the world’s countries opened trade, increased global prosperity, broke down barriers, fostered international integration, improved global health, and boosted transportation, infrastructure, education and human rights.
The two intolerable sins in this world order were genocide and violent, military land grabs that violated national borders.
This rule-based order received an immense boost when the Soviet Union and its allied Warsaw Pact collapsed from their own internal contradictions and imperfections in 1991. After that the world was no longer divided between capitalism and Communism and it could come together as one.
The result has not been perfect but it is far better than what preceded it. At its best its intentions were benign and its aspirations noble. It has been called the “Pax Americana,” the American peace.
This is the peace that Putin violated by invading Ukraine. It is a peace that would be violated by a Chinese attack on Taiwan. And it would be destroyed by American aggression in the western hemisphere.
The accession of Donald Trump doesn’t just threaten democracy in the United States, it appears that in league with Putin and Xi he and they are threatening the entire post-war, post-Soviet world order.
Putin started this with his completely unprovoked attack on Ukraine. For America to join him in unjustified aggression would represent regression to the age of imperialism when might made right, territorial expansion was a measure of success and brute firepower spoke louder than sovereign rights, fairness or justice.
And that brings us to the Gulf of Mexico, the body of water that laps the beaches of Southwest Florida.
Trump’s desire to unilaterally re-name the Gulf of Mexico isn’t just a whim. It’s an expression of his contempt for the entire world—and it’s not the first time a dictatorial leader has tried this kind of move.
In 1980, following his sudden and unilateral attack on Iran, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein demanded that the name of the “Persian Gulf” be officially changed to the “Arabian Gulf.”
Hussein never got what he sought but western media and businesses, trying to avoid offense to either side, started calling that body of water “the Gulf.” Everyone, presumably, knew the reference.
After eight years of bloody, trench-like warfare, Hussein claimed something of a win in 1988; Iran accepted a cease-fire. But his perceived success fueled more ambition in Hussein, who went on to unilaterally invade Kuwait in 1990.
That was too much of a direct challenge to the Pax Americana (and to global oil supplies). It triggered an international response that saw the crushing defeat of Iraqi forces in 1991 and then the invasion and conquest of Iraq by the United States in 2003.
Saddam Hussein ended up hiding in a hole and then hanging at the end of a rope. And the Persian Gulf remains the Persian Gulf to this day.
Donald Trump, who shows no knowledge or understanding of history, might nonetheless want to take note of this bit of the past. Even if he’s in a conspiracy with Putin and Xi to divide up the world, if he imitates Saddam Hussein and goes about attacking sovereign countries and allies without provocation or justification, he could end up like Saddam Hussein as well.
And the Gulf of Mexico would remain the Gulf of Mexico no matter what he wants.
A storm breaks over the Everglades. (Photo: US Park Service)
Jan. 3, 2025 by David Silverberg
While national-level elections are not scheduled for 2025, there will be some significant elections—especially in Florida.
Two members of Congress need to be replaced: Matt Gaetz resigned his position in Congress in December, so a special election will be held in the 1st Congressional District in the Panhandle to replace him.
In the 6th Congressional District in northern Florida, an election will be held to replace Rep. Michael Waltz (R-6-Fla.), who was nominated to be National Security Advisor and is scheduled to leave the House of Representatives on Jan. 20. A special election will be held to replace him.
While Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be leaving the Senate to become Secretary of State if confirmed, a replacement will be appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to fill out the remaining four years of his term, which ends on Jan. 3, 2029.
It is not too early to speculate about DeSantis’ own succession. His term ends in 2026 and he cannot run again so the big question will be who will succeed him.
As the year dawns, two of the leading contenders being mentioned are Gaetz and Southwest Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.). (More about this in a future posting.)
A bombshell House Ethics Committee report released on Dec. 23 stated that Gaetz regularly paid for sex, underage and otherwise, and possessed and used illegal drugs.
In the past this would have disqualified any candidate. However, in the Trump era these standards may not hold. It is also possible that Trump will pardon Gaetz for any misdeeds given the former congressman’s past loud loyalty to the President-Elect.
But any discussion of the gubernatorial race is just early speculation and by 2026 a whole new cast of contenders is likely to emerge, many with statewide name recognition.
Otherwise, across the country, the major contests will be gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.
As of now, there are no local elections scheduled for Southwest Florida.
Southwest Florida investigations
Just because there are no elections scheduled hardly means that there won’t be significant political developments.
As the year dawns the two biggest local political stories in Southwest Florida concern criminal investigations and court cases.
In Collier County, on Nov. 7, multiple federal agencies searched the properties of Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the extremely conservative, outspoken and politically active farmer and grocer.
No information has been publicly revealed following the search and Oakes himself told the Naples Daily News only that “We’re looking into it, but everything’s good.”
However, the federal agencies involved in the search, as reported in local media, provide clues to the nature of the investigation. The presence of Internal Revenue Service agents indicates a tax-related inquiry.
Secret Service agents were on site. While the public largely knows the Secret Service for its protective mission, it is often forgotten that it conducts financial investigations too. The Secret Service was founded during the Civil War to fight counterfeiting and was under the authority of the Treasury Department for most of its history. (It is now part of the Department of Homeland Security.) The presence of Secret Service agents is an indicator of a financial-related investigation but also a possible homeland security or counter-terrorism query.
Also present were Department of Defense (DoD) agents and in particular the Defense Criminal Investigative Service (DCIS), which investigates all forms of crime against the Department including fraud, contracting violations, terrorism, and cybercrime. The presence of DCIS agents indicate that the search may be related to Oakes’ federal contracting. While in the past he had lucrative contracts with the Defense Logistics Agency, which oversees supplies and contracting for the military, Oakes told The Paradise Progressive in 2022 that he had sold off those units. He also has a contract with the Justice Department to provide food to the federal Coleman Correctional Facility in Coleman, Florida.
Additionally, the well-documented presence of a DCIS firearms instructor indicates that federal agents may have been wary of Oakes’ reported 3,000 guns. (Interestingly, Florida Highway Patrol officers were present but Collier County deputies weren’t mentioned in the news accounts.)
As with all investigations, Oakes is presumed innocent until proven guilty. This may or may not involve the convening of a grand jury to hand down indictments if probable cause for prosecution is found.
In the meanwhile, the public will have to await any announcements from the agencies involved in the investigation if prosecution is pursued—or dropped.
An easy prediction for 2025 is that it will be a major story in Southwest Florida when a public announcement is made in this case.
However, another potential outcome is that given Oakes’ longstanding, outspoken and deep loyalty to Donald Trump, he could be pre-emptively pardoned by the president for any wrongdoing, or, if charged, tried and found guilty, pardoned after the court proceeding.
In Lee County to the north, resolution of accusations against Lee County sheriff Carmine Marceno for possible money laundering and misappropriation of funds will be another major political story for 2025.
On Dec. 3 a grand jury convened in Tampa to consider potential charges against the sheriff. The accusations stemmed from allegations made by an electoral opponent, Mike Hollow, in his race against Marceno. Hollow quoted Ken Romano, a contract employee, that he received a “no-work” contract and kicked back money to Marceno’s father. Hollow provided a video of Romano making the allegations.
As of this writing, no word has been heard from the grand jury but if indictments are handed down it will be a major political story for Southwest Florida this year.
Also, the executive branch will be stocked with Floridians. Some must be confirmed by the Senate but others are presidential appointments. In addition to Rubio at State, former Florida attorney general Pam Bondi has been nominated as US Attorney General subject to Senate approval.
In the executive branch, Florida political operative Susan “Susie” Wiles has been named White House Chief of Staff and Palm Beach resident Taylor Budowich has been named Deputy Chief of Staff. As mentioned previously, Waltz has been tapped as National Security Advisor. Janette Nesheiwat, Waltz’s wife, was nominated for Surgeon General; Mehmet Oz, the television doctor and a resident of Palm Beach, has been named Administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Todd Blanche of Palm Beach has been nominated for Deputy Attorney General.
Other Floridians appointed are David Weldon as Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Jared Isaacman as Director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Jay Bhattacharya as Director of the National Institutes of Health; Paul Atkins of Tampa as Chairman of the Security and Exchange Commission; Kimberly Guilfoyle, the former girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr., and a Floridian, as ambassador to Greece; Daniel Newlin, an attorney, as ambassador to Colombia; and Peter Lamelas, a Trump donor and doctor who helped found MD Now Urgent Care that serves Florida, as ambassador to Argentina. And Naples resident Callista Gingrich has been named ambassador to Switzerland.
The key qualification for all these nominations, of course, is loyalty to Donald Trump.
The big question in the year ahead will be whether—and in what way—all these Floridians favor the state over the rest of the country when it comes to resources, benefits and federal aid, especially if there are disasters or crises like epidemics.
One person who is clearly out of favor and likely to stay out of favor is DeSantis. The governor’s unforgiveable sin was to actually run against Trump for the presidential nomination in 2023. Trump forgives or overlooks a lot of transgressions (after all, his own vice president once called him “an American Hitler”) but primarying the king was beyond redemption. There were reports that DeSantis was briefly being considered for Secretary of Defense but those went nowhere.
The prospect for 2025 is for DeSantis to keep governing the state, with an eye to his post-gubernatorial opportunities. But a position in the Trump regime seems unlikely to be one of them.
Once again DeSantis will be ruling over a subservient, super-majority legislature that will likely do his bidding on all things with the exception of paving over state parks. Not only will Republicans dominate the legislature for the next two years but their majority has grown with the defections of two state House members elected as Democrats. State Rep. Susan Valdes (R-64-Tampa) and Hillary Cassel (R-101-Hollywood) have both declared themselves Republicans, with Valdes being rewarded with a second-place slot on the House Budget Committee. While both lawmakers gave different justifications for their defections, the fact is that they likely could see no way to get anything done other than as Republicans.
That legislature will likely follow a Trumpist-DeSantis anti-“woke” program, although probably with less extremism and zealotry than in the 2023 session. Then, DeSantis looked like he might become president based on an anti-woke culture war and legislators wanted to get on his right side with ever more outlandish and sometimes bizarre proposals.
Presumably that won’t be the case this time unless they aspire to favors from the Trump regime in Washington, DC. There’s less incentive to follow the DeSantis “line,” whatever that may be in the coming year but that doesn’t mean they won’t follow a basically Make America Great Again (MAGA) ideology.
Florida shows all the symptoms of a one-party state. Democrats have been crushed twice in two consecutive elections. Despite the Herculean efforts of Democratic Party Chair Nicole “Nikki” Fried and her success in getting Democrats to contest all open seats in 2024, Democrats lost nearly every race they pursued. They are an even smaller minority in the state legislature than before. The state Party shows little signs of recovery—or even life.
Also defeated were two major constitutional amendments, Amendment 3 to legalize recreational marijuana and Amendment 4 to protect the right to abortion. Neither received the 60 percent vote they required to become part of the state constitution.
The consequence of Florida’s abortion ban has already manifested itself in Collier County, with installation of a “baby box,” a medieval contraption that allows mothers to anonymously abandon unwanted infants. In the current version approved by the Board of Commissioners in October, babies can be turned over at Medical Services Station 76 near the intersection of Vanderbilt Beach Road and Logan Boulevard in Naples. At least, unlike Texas, mothers aren’t tossing infants into dumpsters—yet.
Not only did the defeat of Amendment 4 mean that Florida women cannot have abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, it deflated the perception of pro-choice women as a powerful voting bloc with momentum that needed to be respected, or at least considered in decisionmaking. Anti-choice groups and activists are now likely to push for a total ban on abortions and may well get it.
Politically, Amendment 4’s defeat broke an important element of the Democratic coalition in Florida. Democrats were counting on women, minorities, the young, Hispanics, unions and working class voters to take them to victory. Instead they were defeated by MAGAs, billionaires, hostile propaganda and an undeniably impressive Republican registration drive.
It’s hard to see a new majority Democratic coalition coming together in Florida or elsewhere that would propel the Party to future victories, especially given the voter suppression and MAGAism that will likely reign, especially if Trump refuses to step down in 2028 or if the 2026 elections are rigged, as they are now likely to be.
America is now likely to become Florida, as DeSantis proposed in his presidential campaign. The politics and culture Americans will find emanating from the Sunshine State will be sclerotic, hypocritical, repressive, regressive and corrupt. All that will be lacking will be the humidity and hurricanes.
At the grassroots
So how will all this manifest itself in the daily lives of Southwest Floridians?
Every indication is that inflation will soar. Whether from tariffs and trade wars or a drastic reduction of the migrant workforce that makes the local economy work, every policy proposal from Trump to date leads to higher prices and fewer goods.
The general perception is that Trump won the election based on the economy and unhappiness with inflation under President Joe Biden. But Biden, along with the Federal Reserve, steadily brought prices down after the highs of Trump’s first term and the COVID pandemic.
But now, as the saying goes: “You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.”
Of course, Trump will take no responsibility for any of this. He will no doubt blame the weakened Democrats and “far left Marxist radicals” for any problems he causes. If the past is prologue, Fox News and the MAGA faithful will buy it.
The climate change constant
Another impact will come from the skies. Mother Nature doesn’t abide by human politics.
Southwest Florida is uniquely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, as last year’s experience of hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton showed. Its towns, cities and counties are especially dependent on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for disaster preparation and recovery and the predictions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for accurate forecasting and warnings. Along the coasts homeowners rely on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to insure their homes and property.
How has the state government of Florida reacted to the climate change challenge?
Nationally, Trump has called climate change a “hoax” and once tried to change the course of a hurricane with a Sharpie. He took the United States out of the Paris Climate Accords in 2017. President Joe Biden put it back in 2021 and is likely to take it out again.
So, when the hurricanes hit—as they surely will—Southwest Floridians will likely see slower and less effective debris removal, higher taxes and fees as communities try to recover without federal help, and fewer and likely less reliable warnings of approaching storms and dangers.
Stratification
All this appears certain to have a heavy financial impact. Indeed, in Southwest Florida society will likely divide much more starkly into an upper class that can afford to live or own property along a dangerous coast because it can self-insure (without the benefit of NFIP) and pay for rebuilding after disasters without federal aid.
The losers, of course, both nationally and in Southwest Florida, will be members of the middle class and retirees, who have been supported by government policies, especially tax policies, since the New Deal of the 1930s.
But now, the Trump regime is likely to skew taxes to favor billionaires and the extremely wealthy while shifting the burden to a middle class that is likely to decline given Republican and Trumpist assaults on it.
This will probably be especially felt in Southwest Florida. Far from the relatively warm, inexpensive, retiree haven it has been in the past, it will now likely stratify as the costs of living, insurance, property, and climate change damage make it unaffordable for anyone other than the ultra-rich.
This will become even more pronounced if social safety net programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare are altered, restricted or eliminated altogether. A significant number of less wealthy Southwest Floridians rely on these programs.
In a town hall meeting in November, Elon Musk, who appears to be Trump’s foremost advisor, stated that: “We have to reduce spending to live within our means. And, you know, that necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity.”
“Hardship” can be very hard on the non-rich and just how “temporary” it will be is anyone’s guess. As the economist John Maynard Keynes once said: “In the long run, we are all dead.”
Who will serve the ultra-rich who remain? Many low-wage workers will be gone, caught and removed in anti-immigrant roundups and detentions. Perhaps some who remain will continue living in affordable localities distant from the wealthy enclaves they serve. So the region will continue to see ever more distant commutes and congested roads as the people who can least afford it travel longer and further to jobs serving ever smaller and more concentrated enclaves of wealth.
This population will also be less healthy than in the past as public health protections are dismantled and vaccinations dismissed. Public health will be in the hands of anti-vaxxers, both nationally (Robert Kennedy Jr., as Secretary of Health and Human Services) and statewide (Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo).
The possibility exists that all the medical measures that have improved life over the past two centuries—everything from vaccines to public sanitation—will be turned back or abandoned in the coming year and in the ensuing years of the Trump regime. The whole elaborately constructed public edifice that includes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to protect against epidemics and outbreaks, the Food and Drug Administration to ensure food and medicinal purity and safety, and the National Institutes of Health for research and cures, will likely be reduced or eliminated, leaving Americans and the world vulnerable to diseases that are either entirely new or were nearly eradicated.
Another example of the war on public health, if a relatively minor one, is the effort to eliminate fluoridation to prevent tooth decay. Once a nationally accepted public health measure, in the last year it was removed in Collier County and then the City of Naples. Ladapo issued a statewide warning against fluoridation in November. Kennedy has stated it should end nationally and Trump has said he’s “okay” with that.
Hunkering down
No matter what happens nationally, Southwest Floridians will feel the reverberations at home, at the supermarket and in their tax bills.
For now, Southwest Florida still has its beaches and tourist attractions. Its vestigial democratic institutions continue to function. The law still applies to everyone other than the president, providing a form of order. And given the arctic blasts of the north, the tornadoes, sea level rise and flooding, for most of the year it still has the best climate in the country when there are no hurricanes.
Many political storms are headed toward Southwest Florida this year. But just as Southwest Floridians have learned to stock up and hunker down when the skies darken and the wind starts blowing, they can do the same politically. Those who value their Constitution, the inalienable rights endowed by their Creator, and the country they made great through lifetimes of labor and service, need to continue their efforts to ensure that freedom and democracy survive until the storm passes and they can nurture the light to fullness again.
The triumvirate of our time: President Vladimir Putin of Russia, President-elect Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China.
Jan. 2, 2024 by David Silverberg
In the year 60 before the common era (BCE), the three most powerful men in Rome conspired to divide the world between them.
Gaius Julius Caesar, Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus, and Marcus Licinius Crassus, having reached the pinnacle of military and financial power and unable to overcome each other for complete dominance, agreed on an accommodation that gave each of them mastery over a piece of what was then the known world.
This arrangement came to be known as the First Triumvirate and the only reason we know about it was that Caesar exposed it when he became consul the following year.
Today we are living in the age of what can be called the first Global Triumvirate: President Xi Jinping of China, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and when he takes office on January 20, Donald Trump of the United States.
This is not an alliance of countries, it is a personal arrangement between three powerful men. Thanks to modern communications they don’t have to work through national bureaucracies or layers of ambassadors to conspire together; they can each pick up the phone as circumstances demand and carve up the world as they please.
Seen in this light, Trump’s recent threats to annex Canada, re-take the Panama Canal by force and buy Greenland make sense. After all, the Western Hemisphere is his fiefdom now to loot, plunder and exploit as he sees fit. In his mind no Canadian, Panamanian or Dane should have the temerity to stop him. Likewise, Putin should be able to do whatever he pleases in Europe and Xi in Asia.
Xi (71 years old) and Putin (72 years) are already effectively presidents-for-life. Both changed their countries’ constitutions, first to extend their terms, then to lift term limits. Trump (78 years) may try to do the same this year, likely by attempting to change the US Constitution. Should that fail, when his nominal term ends in 2028, he may try overriding it altogether as he did in 2021.
In these circumstances it becomes difficult to forecast actions and policy in the year ahead. Traditional analysis is an attempt to rationally think through possible courses of action and outcomes based on national interests, countervailing forces, government policies and other factors. But when governance is personal, the question becomes the mood of the monarch at any given moment and his possible responses to whatever stimuli tickle his perception.
And make no mistake: Whatever happens abroad will affect every American, even those as far from central government as in Southwest Florida.
That said, the year begins with certain basic questions based on objective reality.
Will the United States remain in NATO and will the alliance survive under Trump?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the most powerful alliance in history and now includes 32 countries, which are pledged to come to each other’s assistance should any one of them be attacked.
It has been a force for international stability since its founding in 1949. Then, it was intended to counter Soviet expansionism, ensure US engagement in international and specifically European affairs, and aid the integration of Europe to prevent the kind of hyper-nationalism that led to World War II.
It has been spectacularly successful in all its aims. Today it stands as a bulwark against Putin’s aggression and it continues to attract new members who are fearful of Russian designs.
Trump, as a friend and admirer of Putin and an America First isolationist (whose title echoes the pre-World War II isolationist movement), puts America’s NATO leadership—and the entire alliance—in jeopardy.
In his first term Trump was contemptuous of NATO, viewing it as a scam that cost the United States money to protect allies who didn’t do enough for their own defenses. He called it obsolete, aimed at a Soviet Union that no longer exists.
His most recent statement about NATO is perhaps the most alarming one to date. During a South Carolina campaign rally in February, he told the audience that when he was president, a NATO head of state asked him if he would defend that country if Russia attacked.
“I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want,’” he told the crowd.
Given Russian actions, NATO has never been more important.
And given Trump’s attitudes and past statements, the question in the year ahead is whether Trump can or will break the alliance and whether NATO can survive with an America that is insular, isolationist and possibly no longer a member.
This brings up the next big question for the year ahead:
Will Ukraine survive as an independent country?
For Vladimir Putin, the road to Kiev runs through Washington, DC.
Putin’s gamble on a lightning conquest of Ukraine has been a near-complete disaster. What was to have been a two-week coup has turned into a two-year war of attrition that has killed anywhere between 300,000 to 500,000 Russian soldiers. Putin has had to turn to North Korea for replacements and even these troops have reportedly suffered severe losses. The Russian economy has been crippled by western sanctions, especially those emplaced by the United States. The Russian Navy has suffered heavy losses including the sinking of its premier flagship. Even if he succeeds in conquering Ukraine he will take possession of a land that he himself devastated.
Even worse for Putin have been the strategic geopolitical costs of the war. While one of his war aims was trying to stop the expansion of NATO into Ukraine and elsewhere, instead NATO gained two new, well-armed NATO allies, Sweden and Finland, which were alarmed by Russian aggression. In the Middle East Putin’s Syrian ally ignominiously fell and its president fled to Russia. It was not just a blow to Russian prestige and influence in the Middle East; the Russian Navy was denied a warm water port it had come to count on in the Mediterranean.
The losses have even been personal. Putin’s friend, fixer and the leader of the fearsome mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, mutinied against the Russian Army leadership and had to be put down, which he was with a plane crash in August 2023.
Russia can theoretically still win and experts have said that a war of attrition favors Russian superiority in resources and personnel.
But from Putin’s perspective the war has become a costly ordeal with a very uncertain outcome—unless Putin can turn the United States against Ukraine, or at least neutralize Ukraine’s most important ally.
Such is the usefulness of Trump as an anti-Ukrainian US president who may take Russia’s side, cut off the arms flow to Ukraine and withdraw from NATO, or at least cripple the alliance.
Putin could see the utility of Trump and that’s why he supported him in his 2016 campaign. Despite Trump’s calling it the “Russia, Russia, Russia hoax,” that Russian support was extensively documented in the report by Robert Mueller, former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Even if Mueller’s conclusions were neutered by Trump’s attorney general, they still detailed a damning connection between Trump’s campaign and Russian efforts (which included considerable activity in Florida).
Russian interference on Trump’s behalf in the 2024 campaign has not been authoritatively detailed but the Russians themselves alluded to it in November when Nikolai Patrushev, a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council told a Russian newspaper that “To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
What were these “forces?” What are the “corresponding obligations?” The public doesn’t know and as long as Trump is president it is unlikely to find out, certainly from official US sources.
Whatever the “forces” and “obligations,” the question this year will be whether the United States remains the arsenal of democracy and the primary backer of an independent, western-oriented, democratic, anti-Putin Ukraine or if Trump chooses to end aid and hand Ukraine to Putin.
Trump said on the campaign trail that he could solve the Ukraine crisis in 24 hours. That doesn’t bode well for subtle or nuanced negotiations. Russia has already explicitly dismissed an early Trump proposal for a peace deal that would have delayed Ukrainian membership in NATO for 20 years and deployed European peacekeepers to the border.
If frustrated with negotiations, there exists the possibility that Trump may try to impose a diktat on Ukraine that Ukraine would almost undoubtedly reject.
It needs to be remembered that Trump betrayed a US ally before, in 2019 abandoning Kurdish forces after he had phone call with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who wanted to invade their territory. That betrayal led to displacement and massacres of people who had bravely fought off the Islamic State in Syria in cooperation with US forces.
Given Trump’s past adoration of Putin, Putin’s seeming grip on Trump, and Trump’s choice of the pro-Putin Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, as the year dawns the indicators for Ukraine are grim.
Who will win the BRICS versus bucks battle?
However, on a different front a rift has already opened between Trump and Putin and the issue is, perhaps unsurprisingly, money.
The United States dollar is the standard currency of world trade and that has proved a problem for a sanctions-burdened Russia.
In October, Putin hosted a BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and it is a Russian-created international economic organization. First convened in 2009 as BRIC, it has come to include a variety of countries outside the US-Western orbit.
From the beginning, Putin advocated finding an alternative to US dollar dominance. With the Ukraine war and Putin’s need to evade sanctions, the search has taken on greater urgency. This was the theme of the 2024 BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan.
But in a rare show of dissent from the Putin line, on Nov. 30, Trump issued a direct cease and desist order via a posting on X:
“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from the Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy. They can go find another ‘sucker!’ There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”
While the posting was uncharacteristically long and coherent for Trump (so it was likely drafted by someone else) it sent an unmistakable warning shot in Putin’s direction.
“More and more countries are switching to the use of national currencies in their trade and foreign economic activities,” observed Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman. “If the US uses force, as they say economic force, to compel countries to use the dollar it will further strengthen the trend of switching to national currencies” for international trade.
The fight over international currencies may seem wonky and obscure, especially for Trump who finds serious policy matters boring, but this is a major issue and a test of whether Trump will actually stand up for American interests when the conflict is with Putin. It will also determine whether the United States remains the mainspring of world trade in the future, given Trump’s tariff infatuation.
The fate of bucks versus BRICS is more than likely to be a key issue in the year ahead and one that bears close watching.
What will be the fate of Gaza, Syria and the Middle East?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knows that the way to Trump’s heart is flattery.
“That’s the art of the deal,” he joked in 2017 as he troweled on praise for Trump’s “clarity” and “courage” even as he privately discounted Trump’s diplomatic proposals. He even named a planned city for Trump (Ramat Trump) on the Golan Heights.
Although Netanyahu briefly fell out of favor with Trump for daring to congratulate Joe Biden on his victory three weeks after the 2020 election, Trump’s depiction of himself during the campaign as Israel’s “protector” and his extreme pro-Israel positions indicate that the United States will support any actions Netanyahu takes in the year ahead.
Those actions would appear to include killing every single member of Hamas, even if each one requires a 500-pound bomb to do so.
As the year dawns there are some indications that what is left of the Hamas leadership might be willing to release the remaining hostages they hold and bend on their demands in order to stop Israeli operations.
But the likelihood of an end to the Gaza war still seems distant. After the slaughter of Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, Netanyahu set the destruction of Hamas as the Israeli war aim and he will stick to it until it is achieved thoroughly and completely, even if a cease fire is called in the interim.
Meanwhile, the non-combatant population in Gaza will continue to suffer, used as shields by the remaining Hamas fighters and viewed as impediments by the Israeli military. Perhaps if the shooting dies down a bit more humanitarian aid will be able to get through this year. But the suffering is likely to continue for generations. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, in a report issued in October, estimated it would take 350 years for Gaza to get back to its prewar economy. That’s not an unthinkable timeframe in the context of the Middle East but it does speak to the devastation of the conflict.
Netanyahu appears to have expended all of Israel’s “soft power;” the power of its values, its humanity and its unique moral authority. But when it comes to “hard power” at the outset of the year, Israel appears to be in an overwhelmingly strong strategic position: while some Hamas elements remain, Gaza appears eliminated as a threat; Hezbollah in the north has been decapitated and its military capabilities virtually neutralized; Iran lost its president during the year to a helicopter crash, is crippled by sanctions and facing a United States that is already antagonistic but likely to become actively hostile under Trump; and when the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad fell the Russians lost a client and their presence in the region.
Of all the questions in the Middle East, at the outset of the year Syria appears the most problematic for all concerned because it is a major source of uncertainty: how will whatever emerges as a new government govern the country? Will the Islamic State revive? What will the new Syria’s relationship be with Israel, Iran, Russia, the United States and the rest of the world?
And over it all: will all the fighting ever stop?
As the mother says in the Adam Sandler movie You Don’t Mess with the Zohan: “They’ve been fighting for 2,000 years. It can’t be much longer.”
Triumvirates’ end
The first Roman triumvirate didn’t make the ten-year mark.
Crassus led a disastrous military campaign into Parthia (modern day Iran) and was defeated in battle at a place called Carrhae in 53 BCE. The story is that he was captured and his captors, knowing his infamous greed for gold, killed him by pouring molten gold down his throat.
Pompey and Caesar maintained friendly relations for years (Pompey had married Caesar’s daughter) but over time their relations strained. Ultimately, Caesar went to war against the Senate and Pompey was sent to crush Caesar militarily. Instead, Caesar defeated him and Pompey was murdered after fleeing to Egypt. Caesar became Rome’s dictator-for-life until he was assassinated on the Ides of March, 44 BCE.
None of today’s triumvirs are likely to lead an army from the front as Crassus did but the dynamics and rivalries of men pursuing power and glory are much the same and likely to yield the same results.
As noted above, signs of personal and national rivalry are appearing, as evidenced in the BRICS versus bucks battle. Also, Trump tried to reorient US trade policy against China in his first term and seems likely to try the same again.
But also militating against the survival of this triumvirate is Trump’s inveterate lying and his lifetime record of welching on commitments and contracts. Just as a Mafia loan shark doesn’t take kindly to a deadbeat borrower, Putin and his mafia-like siloviki won’t take kindly to Trump reneging on whatever agreement they had that put him in office. The embers of this conflagration already seem to be sparking.
What does all this mean for the everyday Southwest Floridian—and all Americans?
At least initially, this year, it’s likely to result in higher prices across the board and scarcity of goods as these men’s rivalries take the form of trade wars. In particular, Trump’s hostility to China and his infatuation with tariffs may result in a decline in the amount and availability of manufactured products to which Americans have become accustomed. Far from a promised reduction in inflation, the cost of everything is likely to climb.
In a broader context, the rise of the new triumvirate marks an authoritarian reaction against the wave of democracy that swept the world from the 1990s onward. Whether it was Tienanmen Square, the end of the Berlin Wall, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the fall of the Soviet Union, or the Arab Spring, people saw the example and success of the United States, and aspired to greater freedom, democracy and human rights.
This was the movement that Putin saw and despised from his perch as a KGB agent in East Germany. It was the movement that threatened to topple China’s Communist government in 1989 and no doubt alarmed Xi. And it is a form of government for which Trump has no use except when it ratifies his own proclivities for domination and control.
As in domestic politics, the year ahead promises to be a hard one for Americans.
The United States is built on the premise that power flows upward from the people, the “consent of the governed.” The rule of the triumvirate is premised on exerting control downward from the top. It’s a conflict that goes back to the days of Athens versus Sparta and seems baked into human nature.
For most of its history, the world looked to America as an example of democracy and freedom. But now, under Trump, Americans need to look for their inspiration to the people who smashed the Berlin Wall, the protesters who took to the streets in the Arab Spring, and the dissidents who stood up to the Soviet Union and Putin.
But there is value in persistence, especially on a matter as important as this. As the writer Thomas Paine put it at one of the darkest and direst points in the American revolution: “Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated.”
The first triumvirate: Pompey, Crassus and Caesar. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
This will be a dark and tragic year—unless a miracle intervenes
It will be chaotic, disruptive and stressful.
Make no mistake: it will be a year of assault on freedom, democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution.
America is not facing a mere change of administrations; it is facing a revolution from above and one so sweeping and comprehensive that firm and confident predictions are almost impossible to make.
More relevant than attempted predictions are the questions that will arise as the year unfolds.
The key one will be: as darkness descends, how can light be kept alive?
After all, what once passed for “politics” is no more.
In the past, “politics” was generally understood to mean the interplay of power, policy and personalities, along with popular participation. Governance, representation and elections were its essence and informed voting citizens were its foundation.
Now American politics—or more accurately, governance—will revolve around the whims, urges and rages of a single individual.
It is exactly the situation that the Founders rebelled against and sought to avoid. But Donald Trump 2.0 will ultimately affect every aspect of American life. No place or person will be unaffected.
The story of the year is going to be the interaction between the Trump regime (this goes beyond an “administration”) and the American public and the country’s constitutional institutions.
Ultimately, the question will be whether the Constitution survives the pressures and efforts to change, ignore or destroy it and whether American democracy can withstand his assaults.
Trump and his legions can be expected to hit hard and move fast. There will be sweeping disruptions, especially in the first 100 days of the regime, indeed probably even announced in the inaugural address on Jan. 20. Even on his first day, Trump has said he will be a dictator and issue an avalanche of executive orders to—at the very least—encourage fossil fuel exploration and usage, round up migrants and pardon January 6th insurrectionists. But numerous other orders are likely to go much further.
Aside from executive actions, people can expect the norms that ensured civility, rationality and decent conduct at the highest levels of government to face constant assaults and efforts to overthrow them—and they are likely to crumble.
What is more, they are likely to see the breakdown in civility and decency at street level, in their neighborhoods, and in their everyday interactions. After all, presidents have always served as role models. Donald Trump will turn the presidential bully pulpit into a pulpit for bullying.
The shooting and killing of Brian Thompson, chief executive officer of UnitedHealthcare in New York, no matter how unrelated to electoral politics, is likely a precursor of more violence to come.
But even short of physical violence, personal conduct is likely to become nastier, more uncivil, more entitled, more insulting and more arrogant in imitation of Trump’s example.
Will the American public accept and approve of this disruption and will public opinion count at all in making national policy?
Will there be any consideration of the needs of ordinary Americans as the Trump regime’s roster is filled with billionaires? How long will Elon Musk stay in Trump’s good graces before he’s jettisoned? How far will the American tax structure be altered to favor the very rich while putting the burden of supporting the state on those least able to afford it?
Economically, will measures like extreme tariffs so drive up the cost of goods that the life to which Americans have been accustomed becomes unsustainable? Will Trump hurl the United States into a Venezuelan or Zimbabwean economic fiasco?
For those who do not buy into the Trump personality cult the overarching question will be how to respond. Is resistance the answer and what form it will take? Is it still worthwhile to work through existing institutions, which will increasingly be assaulted and weakened? Is it principled civil disobedience, with all its dangers and penalties? Is the answer personal withdrawal from the public arena and a quest for inner tranquility? Or just leaving the country altogether?
As official delusion and deception become the norm and independent media is beaten down and intimidated, how will people find the truth, share it and act on it? As government actions become increasingly immoral and inhumane, how can people respond in an ethical way?
In purely practical, everyday terms, how can the average grassroots citizen thrive or even survive under a government and in an economy in constant turmoil and subject to unpredictable and unforeseeable changes caused by the whims of one man?
As previously seemingly solid social safety nets like Obamacare, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are attacked how will Americans who depend upon them survive?
What will be the consequences of a US government pursuing a policy of isolationism, anti-immigration, withdrawal and xenophobia? To what degree will a draconian anti-immigrant effort driven by extremists creep over the line into “ethnic cleansing?” And to what degree will those states, cities and citizens that resist these efforts suffer for their dissent?
It will be a year when Donald Trump attempts to dominate all thought, action, law, media, policy, and government and where he fails to do this personally, his cultists, followers and enablers will work on his behalf and toward his ends.
This regime will be characterized by pettiness, cruelty, hatred, prejudice, rage, disparagement, racism, misogyny, and criminality. It will rule through threats, intimidation and defamation. It will be corrupt to its very marrow.
Americans will know a new emotion from their government: fear. They will go from the most fearless people in the world to among the more fearful, a much more common sensibility among the governed of the world.
Perhaps the best way to think of what is coming is to think of Donald Trump, not as a president but as a Mafia don, like Don Corleone in The Godfather, with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) followers as his accomplices.
The Don is all-powerful, mercurial, demanding complete obedience and submission. There is no loyal opposition or legitimate differences of opinion; there are only believers and heretics, loyalists and traitors—and heretics and traitors must be punished and eradicated.
This is already in evidence. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told a political conference on Dec. 12, that when it came to approving Trump’s appointments, he and his allies had essentially sent a message that: “We got you here. And if you want to survive, you better be good.”
Or as Florida pundit and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson put it in an essay titled The Administration from Hell: “Trump is the Prince of Darkness in this particular drama. He wants nothing more than to destroy everything in his path. It’s not always coherent, but it’s always him.”
Southwest Florida, for all the noisy, fanatical Trumpism of some of its residents, will not be spared the consequences of the chaos, incompetence and misrule that will likely characterize this year and every year that Trump is in office.
Indeed, the Trump transformation appears at its outset to be so sweeping and comprehensive that perhaps it is best to concentrate on its impact on Southwest Florida to get a sense of its effects both locally and nationwide.
The new trail of tears
The first big action being promised by the Trump regime will be roundups and deportations of undocumented migrants.
These roundups will hit Southwest Florida hard, particularly in the agriculture sector, which relies extensively on seasonal migrant workers for harvests of crops such as strawberries, citrus and tomatoes. But it will also impact the construction, hospitality and service trades, which are also highly dependent on migrant labor.
In 2023 the Florida legislature passed, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed, Senate Bill (SB) 1718, which aimed to crack down on undocumented migration by punishing employers and transporters of undocumented migrants.
While implementation of SB 1718 was uneven due to court challenges, the Florida Policy Institute estimated that the law would cost the state’s economy upwards of $12.6 billion in the first year alone when all the accounting was done. Employers saw an immediate impact. For example, in Fort Myers, the locally well-known firm Crowther Roofing lost 10 percent of its workers in 2023 as a result of the law, its owner, David Crowther, told National Public Radio.
For everyday consumers, anti-immigration measures will mean higher prices and harsher inflation and with national anti-immigrant measures coming on top of the ones that Florida has already enacted, the price at checkout is likely to be steep—to say nothing of the human suffering that will underly it.
Trump, his followers and his executive branch nominees are stating that their roundups are only aimed at purging the country of violent offenders and proven criminals.
In fact, the administration of President Barack Obama pursued a policy of detaining and deporting criminal, undocumented migrants and deported 1.18 million people in its first three years. But that effort was relatively quiet. It was meant to be effective and actually accomplish its mission of making American streets safer and enforcing the law. President Joe Biden followed a similar course, deporting 1.1 million people in the fiscal years from 2021 to 2024. Furthermore, these efforts were accompanied by reform efforts aimed at giving undocumented aliens a chance to “get right with the law” and find a path to legitimate citizenship.
But the Trump roundup can be expected to be spectacular, very public and as harsh as possible. It will likely be conducted as a television spectacle, a reality show intended to send a message of mercilessness to the world that discourages all immigration, legal and otherwise.
Unlike previous immigration reform efforts like those made in 2007, 2014 and most recently the bipartisan effort in the Senate that sought a border solution providing security and smart enforcement while also providing labor and economic benefits, this crackdown will likely be driven more by hatred of all immigrants than policy goals. It will likely be infused with rage and racist rhetoric by both Trump and his loyalists as they seek to make America white again.
For the first time there will be concentration camps on American soil and Americans will see them on their television screens. The state of Texas has already offered land for their construction. Even as Trump himself expressed sympathy for “dreamers,” people brought illegally into the United States as children, his would-be implementers like prospective Border Patrol chief Tom Homan, have stated that any leniency on dreamers would be contingent on Democratic support for harsh border measures.
These roundups and deportations will likely be fought in the courts but with its placement of obedient judges, the regime will probably plow through the court system the same way Trump plowed through his criminal cases. Those cases that reach the Supreme Court will be adjudicated by a Trump-appointed majority of justices—and he may gain more appointments as sitting justices retire.
Ultimately, the anti-migrant effort will be aimed at cutting off the influx of people seeking to live, work and contribute to the United States, to isolate the nation, and “cleanse” it of all races and ethnicities that come from what Trump in 2018 termed “shithole countries.”
Trade wars and tariffs
One of America’s greatest blessings is that it shares borders with two countries with which it is at peace and who constitute its largest trading partners.
That trade is massive: $908.9 billion with Canada in 2022, according to the US Trade Representative. US exports were $427.7 billion and imports were $481.2 billion. Trade with Mexico was similarly robust: $855.1 billion with in 2022 with exports of $362.0 billion and imports of $493.1 billion.
Trump is promising to upend this happy situation with a completely unnecessary and unprovoked trade war as he seeks to impose crippling tariffs.
In Trump’s mind tariffs are cost-free sources of revenue and he’s justifying these by saying he wants to force Mexico and Canada to take stronger border measures against undocumented migrants and contraband.
In fact, free North American trade benefits all countries and the kind of 25 percent tariffs Trump has floated would land squarely on the American consumer who would see prices skyrocket, especially for items like durable goods, car parts and food, which make up much of North American trade.
Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have made their cases personally to Trump in an effort to dissuade him from this course of action.
But this is a perfect example of the perversion of American government by the Trump regime. Any policy decision will not be reached by reasoned analysis and debate; instead it will depend on the mood of the monarch, backed by a subservient Congress and his political base.
If Trumpflag-waving Southwest Floridians think they will be spared crippling inflation and a scarcity of goods, they should think again. At the very least the prices for the Canadian-made replacement parts for their sticker-covered pickup trucks are going to rise to the point where they’ll have to jury-rig their swamp buggies like Cubans keeping their 1959 Chevvies on the road.
The war on women
The 2024 election was a setback for women politically.
Trump’s record on women is nauseatingly long and detailed and needs no recounting here. His initial nominees for high office—Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and Peter Hegseth for Secretary of Defense—faced well-documented allegations of harassment, trafficking, underage sex and even rape. Once upon a time, these charges would have been automatically disqualifying for high office. But now it is as though attacks on women are a criterion for nomination.
It all spoke volumes about the regime’s attitude. Only true MAGA believers like former governor Kristi Noem and White House Chief of Staff Susan “Susie” Wiles will have a say in the regime, while independent voices like Nimarata “Nikki” Haley, who challenged Trump in the primaries, will be excluded.
When it comes to abortion, Trump has stated that he will leave it up to the individual states—i.e., where it stands right now. However, the anti-choice movement is likely to push for a national ban. A big question in the year ahead will be how much resistance anti-choicers meet, how effective that resistance proves to be, and whether Trump changes his mind.
Florida is already a petri dish for this (as will be covered in detail in a future posting).
The war on truth, science, health and learning
The accession of Donald Trump to the presidency will mean the return of what has been called “Trumpality,” the Trump worldview or mindset in which objective truth has little to no value.
This could be seen from the very day after he took office in 2017 when he had his spokesman, Sean Spicer, insist that he’d had the largest inaugural crowd in history despite clear and obvious evidence to the contrary. It was so absurd an assertion that it led to one of the greatest sketches in the history of Saturday Night Live.
Trump is aggressively taking legal action against media reporting he dislikes. He sued ABC News for erroneously reporting that he had been liable for rape rather than the correct “sexual abuse” and won a $15 million settlement. On Dec. 17 he announced a lawsuit against Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register for reporting that he was down in their polling prior to the primary caucuses.
He is promising many more such lawsuits in the future. But in a broader sense, the imposition of Trumpality in the coming year will be pervasive and likely crippling to a United States whose whole success has been built on determining and responding to reality.
For over 200 years, virtually from the moment Benjamin Franklin scientifically determined that lightning was electricity, the thrust of American thought was to clinically understand the world in as realistic a way as possible in order to effectively respond to it.
But in the first Trump administration the world was treated to the spectacle of a president who tried to change the course of a hurricane with a Sharpie, who dismissed as hoaxes anything he disliked, from a COVID outbreak to climate change, and who ultimately denied the reality that he had lost the 2020 election.
That delusional thinking will not only likely be evident this year, it will be imposed from above. It will likely affect everything from public health to weather forecasting. It will pervade the media whether mainstream, social or ideological as they both report what he asserts no matter how false and acquiesce to his version of events to avoid retaliation or retribution.
The opposition to vaccines and public health measures as evidenced by the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as Secretary of Health and Human Services, has the potential to wipe out a century of medical progress and scientific advancement in promoting public health and replace it with a brew of conspiracy theories, disbelief and even outright superstition.
A Trump war on science and even the notion of climate change will likely have a devastating impact on Southwest Florida, which in recent years has found itself even more reliant on accurate weather forecasting in the face of multiple hurricanes and dependent on support from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to rebuild and recover from the storms.
Trump and his minions have vowed to eliminate the Department of Education and there is a strong possibility that they will find a way to do it this year—with extreme prejudice.
What that will likely mean is a loss of grants and funding to promote education and educational initiatives.
In the 2024-25 fiscal years, Collier County, Fla., received $7 million in direct federal education grants and an additional $80 million in federal funding through the state. The Lee County School District received $154 million or 5 percent of its budget in federal funds. Both will feel a severe impact if federal funding is cut off because the Department of Education and its grant programs are eliminated.
Every other school system throughout the country will face the same.
The war on equality
“We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal… ,” states the Declaration of Independence.
While more modern usage might change that sentence to “all people are created equal,” the fact remains that idea of human equality is the cornerstone, the fundamental bedrock on which all American government, law and society is built. Advancing equality is what defines the American notion of progress. All the social and political advances in American history—emancipation, women’s suffrage, civil rights, integration, non-discrimination—were based on advancing equality to all.
The idea of equality pervades all American law; on the lintel of the US Supreme Court is the motto: “Equal justice under law.” It means that the law applies equally to absolutely everyone and that it will be administered impartially to all.
But that is no longer the case. The anti-equality movement has now established that there is one person who is officially above the law. Donald Trump is the living embodiment of it.
He has plowed through every application of law, every enforcement action, every civil proceeding, every impeachment effort and through a jury’s criminal verdict. He will likely never be sentenced for the 34 felonies of which he was convicted. He has been handed immunity by the Supreme Court. In his own mind he is and will forever be guiltless for any action he has ever committed and now that will be the case in fact, likely encouraging new crimes.
For the first time in its history since it threw off the shackles of a distant king, Americans are led by one person who is above the law. He is a de facto monarch, a single source of power. The Declaration’s truth is no longer self-evident. All people under the Constitution of the United States are not created equal.
As of right now, only that one person is officially above the law. But in the coming year and in all the years subsequent in which this situation continues, others will claim or attempt to attain this elevated status. Over time the idea of equality before the law will face disintegration. Those who are clearly guilty of crimes will walk free and defiant—imitating and citing Donald Trump—and the majesty, dignity and most of all, authority, of the law will crumble down to the lowliest courtroom and street cop.
In this Trump will be aided and abetted by a subservient, all-Trumpist Congress, hand-picked, blindly loyal judges, and an avalanche of propaganda justifying it all.
Although the Stop WOKE Act is still subject to court proceedings and parts of it have been ruled invalid, it remains in force in Florida. In the year to come versions of it are likely to be passed in other state legislatures and nationally, with encouragement from the White House.
The war on equality in all forms is almost certain to take place on many fronts this year.
The opposition
For Democrats and the 75 million Americans who opposed this state of affairs at the ballot box, this will likely be a year of introspection, healing, reorganizing, reassessing and most of all, learning to endure.
For the Democratic Party and its caucus in Congress, it is clearly time to pass the torch to a new generation, just as Biden (82 years old) had to pass the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris (60 years). In 2022 then-House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) (84 years) stepped aside in favor of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-8-NY) (54 years). But the transition will not be smooth or even. For example, Rep. Gerry Connelly (D-11-Va.) (74 years) bested Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-14-NY) (35 years) for the ranking position on the House Oversight Committee in what was seen as an early test of generational change.
There may be handings off of batons to younger politicians. But it will take time for the next generation to consolidate, find its footing and build political capital. As they do this they will be under extreme pressure from the Trump regime and its party to thwart their every effort. Nor will the pressure only be national; it will be at the state level too and it will all be very personal.
The most obvious possible Democratic presidential candidate to challenge Trump in 2028 (if there’s an election and if Trump runs again) is Gov. Gavin Newsom of California.
The world can expect a massive Trumpist war against Newsom and the state of California starting this year and every year that Trump is president.
California will no doubt be denied federal disaster benefits (in 2020 Trump said it could avoid wildfires by raking up leaves and threatened at the time to withhold disaster aid). That Trump will use the full force and power of the federal government against a potential rival was demonstrated in 2019 when he tried to get Ukrainian help against Joe Biden, for which he was impeached, although acquitted.
But it won’t just be Trump attacking California, it will be the entire regime and the Trumpist movement because California is the most obvious target for anti-“woke” crusading.
Also, California has Hollywood, which has been a target of conservatives since movies started being made there over a century ago. The world’s entertainment celebrities, having overwhelmingly endorsed Harris, can expect retaliation this year and beyond. Once again, Florida provides a good example of this kind of warfare, where DeSantis went to war against the Disney corporation for its “woke” heresy.
Indeed, throughout the country expect attacks aimed at denying Democrats any possibility of ever winning any election again at any level, whether through ballot access denial or election interference in Democratic districts and cities, especially, in response to opposition to anti-migrant roundups and deportations and possible “sanctuary” cities.
This will be more than just competition. The regime will attempt what has been called “politicide”—the political destruction of a party, movement or belief system.
Responding, persisting and surviving
How can non-Trumpers of all stripes and parties respond to this onslaught and prevent it from succeeding?
One answer is from Rick Wilson who argued that all of Trump’s appointments should be fought tooth and nail: “Every one of them. Stop the worst. Expose the rest.”
Moreover, he argued: “Attack the disinformation infrastructure. MAGA thrives on lies. Cut off their supply.
“Brand the MAGA GOP. Chaos, corruption, and crisis—they own it. Make it stick.
“Prepare for 2026 and 2028. The battle for America’s soul didn’t end on November 5th.
“Lead with courage. Fear and apathy are their weapons. Fight back with strength.”
A similar response came in an answer to a question from a reader who expressed despair and hopelessness in The Washington Post. Jennifer Rubin, a Washington Post columnist, responded: “It is a common sentiment these days, but giving way to hopelessness ensures the triumph of cruelty and authoritarianism. We owe it to our more vulnerable fellow Americans to continue to fight for our democracy. Every day, civil servants trying to hold the line, judges committing to the rule of law and activists struggling on behalf of immigrants and other at-risk people will get up, do their work, and try to move the needle in the direction of justice, fairness and freedom. The least the rest of us can do is not surrender. No single person can fix everything, but there is something everyone can do, even if it is just buying one subscription to a quality local newspaper, writing one letter to a lawmaker, attending a school board meeting, volunteering in your community, or supporting a decent person’s candidacy for local, state or federal office.”
There is no doubt, though, that 2025 will be a year of defense for all who oppose Trump’s absolutism. It will be a year to protect the Constitution—and all the rights it enshrines—from an unconstitutional onslaught and even efforts to change it by, for example, ending birthright citizenship or prolonging the presidential term.
Trump and his regime have the momentum going into the year but that momentum and whatever victories they score are unlikely to last forever.
The past historical record shows that authoritarian regimes can succeed for a time but then usually make a major miscalculation or face an overwhelming crisis that the supreme leader is unable to overcome, usually as a result of overweening ambition: for example, Adolf Hitler invaded the Soviet Union; Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait; Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
In the case of Trump, when faced with the COVID outbreak in 2019 he initially dismissed it, wished it away, derided it, then prescribed absurd responses like fake drugs and injecting bleach. It exposed his unfitness, incompetence and belief that his delusions could become reality. It was a major factor in his 2020 defeat—another setback he tried to imagine away.
In the second Trump presidency, after a period of irrational exuberance and the complete deregulation of commerce and industry, an economic crash on the order of 1929’s looms as the most the probable disaster. That may not occur until after Trump’s first year.
“Monarchy is like a sleek craft, it sails along well until some bumbling captain runs it into the rocks,” said Fisher Ames, one of the earliest members of Congress. “Democracy, on the other hand, is like a raft. It never goes down but, dammit, your feet are always wet.”
Historically, authoritarian regimes have also been riven and sometimes brought down by factional differences. As political differences cease to be expressed in open, multi-party forums and through elections, they appear as internecine battles within the ruling regime.
An early expression of this was evidenced last month in an argument over continuation of H-1B visas for highly skilled foreigners, with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy of the nascent Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) arguing to continue the program and anti-immigration MAGAs like Laura Loomer, Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon calling for its elimination.
The DOGE brothers appear to have won that battle but it is indicative of the kind of infighting to be expected from the Trump regime, that will have echoes at the grassroots.
A climate change-related natural disaster along the lines of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina is also a strong possibility.
The horrible irony of all this is that for all the conservative bleating about “American exceptionalism” and Trump’s past rants about an America in decline that only he can save, the policies he and Musk seem determined to pursue will firmly and irrevocably put America on the same path of decline and decrepitude that has afflicted every great nation and empire throughout history. Moreover, Trump seems determined to lead the nation over this cliff while blinding the public with lies, delusions, and emotional chest-thumping nativism and hyper-nationalism.
There’s no doubt that it will be a long and difficult year. Friends of democracy need to prepare for a lengthy marathon. The sprint is over.
However, like the jewel at the bottom of Pandora’s box, there’s still hope and the unlikely inspiration for it is provided by, of all people, Donald Trump.
After being defeated in 2020, after a delusional and fruitless effort to overturn the election, after impeachment, disgrace, Florida exile, investigations, derision, trial, and criminal conviction, Trump came back from political Hell to win the presidency.
If Trump can make such a comeback on behalf of selfishness and greed, then surely those who oppose him can also come back from defeat and disaster, loss and setback. With persistence and determination they can rebuild and renew themselves and take the first steps on a road that, no matter how long and hard it may be, will truly make America great again.
____________________
Tomorrow: Part 2—Darkness descends: Anticipating the year ahead abroad and the new triumvirate
Coming Jan. 3: Part 3—Defying darkness: Southwest Florida politics and the year ahead
What could be more Southwest Floridian than looking to the future through a crystal ball on the beach?
Dec. 30, 2024 by David Silverberg
The end of 2024 has come and with it the usual lazy media roundups looking back at the events of the year.
Far more productive and important are looks ahead, although these are necessarily speculative—and they will be coming in these pages. But first, it seems sensible to see how well The Paradise Progressive was able to foresee the events of 2024, one of the most momentous years in American history.
In the past, we’ve graded our projections on an A through F scale. This year, though, we’ll grade some of the key ones as “prophetic” or “pathetic.”
Prophetic: “It will be an interesting year but not a fun one. Indeed, it will be dangerous, stressful and frightening.”
Well, that was certainly true. Not much further explanation is needed there.
Prophetic: “…the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will determine whether America stays a democracy or becomes a dictatorship.”
While this remains to be seen, all indications are that America is heading in a dictatorial direction under Donald Trump.
Prophetic: “Throughout the year expect court rulings to drop like bombs, with Supreme Court rulings making the biggest explosions of all.”
This was certainly the case. In January, in a civil case first brought by writer E. Jean Carroll in 2023, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and ordered to pay $83.3 million in damages for defamation. On May 30 in the New York falsified business records case, Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies, a verdict that seemed a major blow to his presidential candidacy. However, in a decision announced on July 1 in the case of Trump vs. United States, the Supreme Court granted presidents—i.e., Trump—immunity for “official acts,” a decision that now hands him virtually unchecked power.
Prophetic: “If he wins he becomes dictator, he pardons everyone who committed a crime on his behalf, and he attains absolute, unrestricted power. If he loses, he forfeits his life, his fortune and his own freedom.”
The situation is certainly set up for this prophecy to be fulfilled and the likelihood is that he will evade justice altogether once he takes the presidency.
Pathetic: At the outset of the year, a movie called Civil War, which imagined armed domestic conflict in the United States, was being promoted and threatened to “encourage those thinking of civil war and political violence to actually take up arms and make this fiction real.”
Civil War was released in April and while garnering $126 million at the box office, essentially sank like a stone, making little to no impression across the country. In its 2023 promotions, it was unclear whether the movie’s villain was President Joe Biden or not. Once released, however, the movie posited a revolt against a president who had overstayed his two terms and was clearly Trump. But the movie’s fictional California forces and especially the “Florida coalition,” that took up arms in revolt was wildly off the mark. Overall, this movie didn’t seem to have any impact at all on the election or domestic politics.
Prophetic: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) presidential candidacy would be “do or die” in New Hampshire and “that is likely to fall on the ‘die’ side of the equation.”
Indeed, DeSantis dropped his bid on Jan. 21, just before the New Hampshire primary after falling steadily in the polls.
Prophetic: “The Republicans will be throwing everything they can at Biden, like a baseless impeachment proceeding that is unlikely to go anywhere, and attacking him through his son, Hunter.”
That certainly came to pass. Hunter Biden was found guilty of firearms-related felonies in June and pled guilty to tax charges in September. However, by then his father had dropped out of the race and Hunter’s crimes had no political impact. Ultimately, he was pardoned by his father on Dec. 1.
More relevantly, Republicans in the House of Representatives continued a feeble effort to impeach Biden. However, without an actual crime, this blatantly partisan payback scheme went nowhere.
Pathetic: “Biden would also likely crush Trump in any one-to-one debate.”
This was one of the biggest surprises of the year. On June 26, Biden proved weak, incapable and almost senile in his debate with Trump. It was probably the most consequential debate in American history and led to Biden dropping his re-election bid on July 21 in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Prophetic: “The possibility of one—or even both—of the candidates dropping out or dropping dead must be considered.”
Biden dropped out and Trump was nearly felled by an assassin’s bullet on July 13.
Prophetic: “If either man falls the entire political calculation will fundamentally change.”
That’s exactly what happened when Biden dropped out and Harris took his place.
Prophetic: “In Florida questions that loom for 2024 are: will pro-choicers get their amendment on the ballot? Can the DeSantis administration suppress it through the courts? Will Florida officials invalidate the signatures? And if it is on the ballot, will it receive the 60 percent approval from voters to pass?”
Pro-choicers got Amendment 4 guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion on the ballot and sure enough, the DeSantis administration tried to suppress it through the courts and invalidate the signatures. Ultimately, it failed to get the 60 percent of votes needed to pass.
Prophetic: On the war in Ukraine, “there’s no end in sight right now and the war seems set to continue in its current state for at least another year.”
Indeed, the war continues and The Paradise Progressive was further prophetic when it noted that as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin was alive, “the course of Russian policy and warmaking will likely remain as it has since the invasion.”
Prophetic: On the war in Gaza: “All Hamas has to do in the year ahead to win its war is simply survive since [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu set the Israeli war goal as destroying it. Israel seems unlikely to achieve its goal before the year is out.”
Even with the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas fights on and the war in Gaza is active. But as was also predicted: “If all other factors remain the same Netanyahu will continue Israel’s current course no matter how long it takes or what it costs in blood, treasure, or prestige.” That was certainly prophetic.
Prophetic: Continuation of the war meant the possibility that “yet another front opens or a third major war suddenly breaks out somewhere during the year.”
Israel pre-emptively opened another front against Hezbollah in Lebanon and conducted a virtually separate war there. Then, suddenly in December, in Syria the regime of President Bashar al Assad fell to rebels.
Pathetic: “Given the tensions, stakes and desperation in so many theaters there will undoubtedly be terror and mass casualty events in the United States this year, some of them severe.”
This did not come to pass, in large part thanks to the vigilance and professionalism of federal counter-terror agencies and personnel.
Prophetic: “There may be efforts to stop voting or scare people away from polling places.”
Prophetic: “Some lone shooters, random crazies and violent extremists will get through.”
That’s what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, although Ryan Wesley Routh’s staking out of a sniper position on the Trump golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sept. 15 was caught before any shots were fired.
Prophetic: “As Russia has interfered in US elections ever since 2016, so it can be expected to attempt to interfere in the 2024 election.”
As noted previously, there are suspicions of Russian interference in the election and the Putin government seemed to reference these in November when Nikolai Patrushev, a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council told a Russian newspaper that “To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
However, with Trump declared the winner, the disbanding of the cases against him and the dropping of investigations by prosecutor Jack Smith, the American people may never know the full extent and nature of Russian intervention in America’s 2024 election—and the public will certainly not learn it from any official body of the US government under a Trump administration.
Pathetic: “Migrant flows to the US southern border are already at record levels. They will likely skyrocket as the year proceeds.”
Instead, the exact opposite occurred; border apprehensions and encounters with US authorities fell sharply. As a Pew Research Center analysis put it on Oct. 1: “After reaching a record high at the end of 2023, the monthly number of U.S. Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico has plummeted so far in 2024.”
According to the Pew analysis, the Border Patrol recorded 58,038 encounters with migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in August 2024, a 77 percent decline from 249,741 encounters in December 2023, the most ever recorded in a single month.
And why this sudden plummet in crossings and encounters? “The decline in encounters has come amid policy changes on both sides of the border,” stated Pew. “Authorities in Mexico have stepped up enforcement to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S. border. And U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order in June that makes it much more difficult for migrants who enter the U.S. without legal permission to seek asylum and remain in the country.”
So Biden administration changes made a big difference in border crossings but not in time or with the fanfare to stave off wild Republican charges that the border was “open” and unpoliced.
Prophetic: “…The surge at the border will no doubt be a major headache and vulnerability for Biden this year.”
While there was no surge, it was still a headache—but largely because Trump prevented consideration and passage of a bipartisan border security bill that addressed many of the problems. As the article predicted, he and Republicans “can be expected to exploit the situation to the full,” which they did.
Prophetic: “There is virtually no prospect for any real progress being made on immigration or border security in 2024.” Further, “the prospects for the year ahead are for Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants to keep getting uglier, Republican exploitation of the situation to increase and get more apocalyptic, numbers of migrants and their suffering at the border to keep growing, strains on border security mechanisms to keep expanding and the rewards of finding practical consensus solutions to stay elusive.”
Collier County, Fla., faced critical elections for its Board of Commissioners and School Board in 2024.
But the biggest surprise came in June when Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the outspokenly conservative and pro-Trump farmer, grocer, activist and major Collier County power broker, missed the deadline to file his candidacy papers for State Committeeman and lost his official position on the Collier County Republican Executive Committee. The Paradise Progressive certainly did not foresee that.
Prophetic: “So going into 2024, Collier County voters are faced with seasoned candidates with experience, knowledge and proven competence in their fields or unseasoned MAGA amateurs running on grievances, conspiracies and blind belief.”
Ironically enough, in the Aug. 20 party primary, Collier County Republicans rejected, as one piece of campaign literature put it, “angry, inexperienced individuals” for critical positions in county government and instead voted for seasoned, proven candidates. In particular, Melissa Blazier retained her position as Supervisor of Elections, despite two challengers.
At least in this corner of Florida, as prophetically predicted, the result was “a county that is run on behalf of its residents with effectiveness, efficiency and integrity.”
Summing up
By and large, when it came to broad trends, The Paradise Progressive’s projections for 2024 were strikingly prophetic.
But lest that seem too self-congratulatory, it must be pointed out that it made no firm predictions on outcomes: it never stated who would win at the ballot box, whether locally or nationally, or which side would win the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, or how the Florida constitutional amendments would turn out.
Further, it did not foresee the dramatic, abrupt turns of the year in domestic politics: Biden’s dropping out; Trump’s near-assassination; the Harris candidacy.
Locally, some of the biggest unforeseen developments were Alfie Oakes’ disqualification from Republican Party candidacy; the massive search of his properties by federal law enforcement agencies on Nov. 7; and, in Lee County, the allegations and investigation into corruption by Sheriff Carmine Marceno.
The consequences from these events will play out in 2025.
Indeed, what will 2025 bring the nation, the world and especially Southwest Florida? Informed and humbled by its record from 2024, The Paradise Progressive will be looking ahead at likely developments in days to come.
And that, at least, is a prophecy on which you can count.
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard,” the writer HL Mencken once observed.
Having elected Donald Trump to a second term in office, Americans are going get the Trump agenda “good and hard:” Project 2025 will be implemented whether Trump knows what it is or not, mass roundups of migrants and even legal immigrants are likely starting on day one and Trump will rule—not govern, rule—with absolute immunity and without any checks or balances whatever.
There is no sugarcoating this: it is an absolute catastrophe. It has no redeeming aspects. It is a disaster for America and the world.
Two models suggest themselves as possible precursors for Trump’s governance. One is what we’ll call the “Florida model” and the other is the Vladimir Putin model.
The Florida model
In 2022 Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) won re-election with a 20 percent margin, giving him an ironclad mandate, a super-majority Republican legislature in both houses and a Supreme Court of his own choosing. What this effectively meant was that there were no checks or balances on executive authority or scope of action.
It was largely the same situation in which Trump finds himself today, although final disposition of the US House of Representatives remains uncertain as of this writing.
(Regarding the judicial branch, DeSantis has appointed five of the seven justices currently on the state Supreme Court. In Florida, state Supreme Court justices are appointed to six-year terms by the governor from Judicial Nominating Commission recommendations. There is no advice or consent by the state Senate but judges are subject to retention votes after one year in office and must retire at age 75.)
Also similar to Trump’s situation, DeSantis aggressively promoted an ideological agenda and imposed it on the state. In large part, this was driven by his 2023 run for president against Trump, his previous mentor and patron. Essentially, DeSantis sought to offer an alternative to Trump but still promoted Trumpism. As his campaign slogan put it, he sought to “Make America Florida.” That meant promoting measures that in some cases were even more extreme than Trump’s. (Ultimately, it didn’t work as a campaign strategy.)
In all, the second DeSantis term provided the model of a regime that was unchecked by any kind of effective opposition in its ideological crusade but still worked through an existing constitutional and legal framework. Although it made for a chaotic and sometimes jerky patchwork of actions and laws that occasionally ran afoul of judicial judgments, it succeeded in clamping down on free expression of ideas in the public square, in schools and academia, as intended. Culturally, it went a long way toward imposing a sclerotic, regressive official culture on the state that brooked no dissent, independence—or creativity.
Given that Trump is a Floridian and much of his administration is likely to be staffed by loyalist Floridians, these ideas and practices will probably provide much of the policy and legislative framework for the entire country when the new regime takes power.
Presumably, as in Florida, the incoming Republican regime will work through already standing procedures so proposals will have to be considered and approved by Congress and signed by the president, providing some space for debate and dissent rather than outright rule by decree.
One disturbing trend that emerged in Florida under DeSantis that could manifest itself nationally under Trump is the inclination to ban political parties and make the Republican Party the only allowed political organ. In 2023 there was one legislative proposal to decertify the Democratic Party but it wasn’t seriously pursued or considered. However, Christian Ziegler, who was chair of the Florida Republican Party before being deposed in a sex scandal, once said that: “For the Republican Party of Florida the work continues as our job is not done until there are no more Democrats in Florida.”
This extremist rhetoric and legislative activity in Florida bespeak an absolutist mentality that has been a critical aspect of authoritarian regimes throughout history and could be extended to the entire United States.
The Putin model
There are many possibilities in trying to think through the future course of a Trump dictatorship. Another preview is not Trump’s previous presidency but the reign of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump idolizes, likely obeys, and is highly likely to emulate.
Putin came to power, not with a tsarist bang or as some kind of television star, but during the chaotic but democratic administration of President Boris Yeltsin. After a career in the Soviet spy service, the KGB, he served as an obscure bureaucrat working in the St. Petersburg municipal government. He steadily rose through various government agencies, founding a liberal political party along the way that would provide him a popular base. He entered Yeltsin’s inner circle, ultimately replacing him in return for issuing a pardon that exonerated Yeltsin and members of his family for alleged corruption. Throughout Putin’s career he was also promoted by elements of the old Soviet security community, known as the siloviki, which pushed his advancement.
Since first becoming president in 2000 Putin has tightened his grip on Russia using techniques Trump is likely to imitate. (More below.)
Putin’s increasingly repressive and absolute hold on power was gradual, and faced opposition from people who worked through legal, constitutional means. However, he brought economic order and stability to what had been a wrenching transition to capitalism from communism, building a genuinely supportive following.
An increasingly subservient parliament or Duma passed gradually more repressive laws at Putin’s direction. The Constitution was amended to enhance his powers. The initial generation of billionaire oligarchs was murdered, prosecuted, bullied or co-opted into obedience. Russian law was weaponized to return desired verdicts in cases against Putin’s targets. What was briefly a freewheeling, independent media was brought to heel. Numerous political parties were banned. Elections were increasingly subverted and became decreasingly free or fair, resulting in, for example, an 88 percent return for Putin in the 2024 election.
Some measures stood out as especially Putinesque: one was the outright murder of opponents, critics and journalists whether in Russia or abroad, often through exotic poisons or elaborately staged assassinations.
Another was his ability to alter the Constitution to extend his terms in office until today he is in this fifth term and effectively president-for-life.
Given Trump’s scorn for elections and his refusal to accept adverse electoral outcomes, the Putin model, or at least elements of it, is highly likely to be followed in the coming Trump administration.
Red flags and red lines
Based on these models and the historic course of dictatorships, Americans who value a pre-Trump democratic society and government under the Constitution should regard some developments as red flags marking the imposition of outright despotism.
What are these red flags?
Changing the Constitution
Every dictator who came to power through democratic means made changing the country’s Constitution a priority; thereby ensuring that he would never jeopardize his control again.
Putin oversaw several changes to the post-Communist Constitution. This also applied in Nazi Germany. Once he legally entered parliamentary government as chancellor, Adolf Hitler pushed through an “Enabling Law” that allowed him to govern without parliamentary approval.
The probability that Trump and what is likely to be a rubber-stamp Congress will attempt to alter the US Constitution or do away with it altogether is very high and Trump has said that the outcome of the 2020 election, which he falsely called fraudulent, justified “termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”
While the existing process for amending the Constitution is long and arduous, a regime that ignores rules and procedures may attempt to dispense with them and make the changes by decree, with the support of followers in the legislative and judicial branches.
It seems almost certain that Trump will also attempt to alter the two-term presidential limit either through a constitutional amendment or by outright fiat or coup. He did not accept constitutional or legal limits when he was defeated in 2020 and tried to overturn that election. If he is not felled by ill-health or natural causes by 2028, there is a high likelihood that he will seek to stay in office for the duration of his natural life. In this he will likely be enabled by obedient supporters in Congress, loyalists in the executive branch, a hand-picked judiciary—which may expand with additional Supreme Court appointments—and his cultists among the public.
Postponing, canceling or rigging elections
The pillar of American constitutional government has been the absolute commitment to holding elections at their constitutionally determined times. This has held throughout American history.
(To the best of this author’s ability to determine, the only postponed election in all of American history occurred on Sept. 11, 2001 when the terrorist attack disrupted a scheduled New York City primary election. In the aftermath of the attack, when Mayor Rudy Giuliani wanted to extend his term by three months to deal with its consequences, the New York legislature refused on the principle that keeping to an election schedule was greater than the exigencies of the moment no matter how grave. President Abraham Lincoln too refused to postpone the election of 1864 in the midst of the Civil War.)
A red flag marking a major move toward tyranny would be any attempt by Trump or his allies to postpone, reschedule or cancel the regularly scheduled elections for 2026 or 2028.
Putin’s path to power included regularly scheduled elections. However, as previously noted, these elections became increasingly less free and fair.
From the beginning of his political career Trump has denounced elections with unfavorable outcomes as “rigged” (although he always accepted the results of elections when they were favorable). Given his propensity for projection, there is a high likelihood that future US elections will be rigged the way they are in Russia or in other dictatorships throughout history, to ensure a favorable outcome for Trump.
Murdering opponents
Throughout his political career Trump has fostered and encouraged an atmosphere of violence. This reached a crescendo on Jan. 6, 2021 but even that event will now likely be overshadowed. Violence, threats and intimidation are now likely to be institutionalized during his presidency.
In the early years of past dictatorships the outright murder of prominent opponents brought initial outcries and public reactions. In Italy in 1924 the murder of socialist politician Giacomo Matteotti by Fascist thugs created a huge outcry against Prime Minister Benito Mussolini. While denying direct involvement, Mussolini ultimately took responsibility. However, he then defied authorities to do anything about it and faced no prosecution. Some historians mark this murder and its aftermath as the true start of Mussolini’s dictatorship.
Despite the lack of evidence from a court of law, it can safely be said that Putin has used assassination extensively to eliminate opponents, with poisoning a favorite method. Most recently his foremost political opponent, Alexei Navalny, was first poisoned and then murdered in prison after returning to Russia from exile.
Trump murdered an opponent before, but it was a foreigner: Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. It was done as an official US act and occurred outside the United States but it was an assassination nonetheless and Trump acknowledged responsibility. Whether any other murders have occurred at his command has not been brought to public light.
There is the possibility that prominent American opponents of Trump, if not imprisoned, could be murdered. As Trump infamously noted, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”
Having been granted complete immunity for official acts by the US Supreme Court, the likelihood of domestic political violence, including murder, during the coming Trump regime is very high.
Crushing a free press
A free and independent press is an obstacle to tyranny as both tyrants and democrats have understood throughout history. As the Virginia Declaration of Rights stated in 1776, “…The freedom of the press is one of the greatest bulwarks of liberty and can never be restrained but by despotic governments.” In the modern era all dictators have moved to suppress the media.
In Florida, as noted above, the DeSantis administration threatened prosecution of television channels if they broadcast a pro-choice advertisement. In Russia, Putin cracked down on the media, even regulating bloggers. This last measure had an echo in Florida in 2023 when state Sen. Jason Brodeur (R-10-Seminole and Orange counties) introduced a bill that required bloggers to register with the state if they covered or commented on the governor, Cabinet officers or state legislators. (This bill did not advance.)
Trump has both loathed the media and loved its attention throughout his political career. More recently his threats have become more serious. He has threatened television networks with the loss of their licenses and repeatedly attacked print publications for their actions. These tactics bore fruit this year when both the Los Angeles Times and Washington Post declined to make presidential endorsements.
There is a high likelihood that during his presidency Trump will either actually close down major media outlets through the Federal Communications Commission or bully them sufficiently to prevent critical coverage of his regime and actions.
Bringing billionaires to heel
Putin inherited a number of mega-wealthy billionaires dubbed the “oligarchs,” who had an outsized influence on Russia in the wake of its communist collapse. At least one, Vladimir Gusinsky, owned Russia’s first, free-wheeling independent television station, which featured a satirical show Putin loathed.
Putin broke the power of the oligarchs or pre-empted them throughout the course of his career. Gusinsky was charged with fraud and tax evasion and fled overseas. In addition to Gusinsky, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, at one point the richest man in Russia and owner of the Yukos oil company, was arrested for economic crimes and imprisoned. It sent a chill throughout the Russian oligarchy and did much to break its power. Other billionaires have died under mysterious circumstances.
Trump has been backed by a large number of American billionaires who hope to profit from his election. Chief among them is Elon Musk, who has been promised a high position in the administration.
However, this situation is unlikely to last. Musk, ironically enough, is likely to be an early target when Trump becomes jealous or feels threatened by his prominence and power.
When American billionaires start dying from mysterious ailments or falling out of windows, the American public will know that the era of the billionaires is over and the triumph of Trump is complete.
Outlawing political parties
Outlawing opposition political parties has been a feature of all modern dictatorships. As noted above, there was one attempt to do this in Florida but it wasn’t seriously considered. Nonetheless, Americans should be alert to efforts to ban the Democratic Party, which Trump has called “the enemy within.”
This is a major red flag of encroaching dictatorship.
Personalizing law enforcement
Throughout his first presidency Trump was repeatedly frustrated by attorney generals who refused to commit crimes at his command or who countenanced the independent application of justice. Trump wanted to be above the law at all times and able to prosecute his enemies or other targets at will, without regard to legal or constitutional restraints.
In his second presidency, Trump will no doubt appoint an attorney general who will be completely subservient and will persecute his targets on command regardless of legal restraints, due process or probable cause—a situation akin to Putin’s Russia.
The arc of history
“First time tragedy, second time farce,” Karl Marx once said of the repetition of historical events. With Trump that saying is reversed: if Trump’s first presidency was a chaotic, criminal, corrupt farce, his second presidency will be a directed, deadly, destructive tragedy that will leave the United States vastly diminished and its people oppressed.
Americans may think that a Trump presidency will come to a close in 2028 when Trump’s term theoretically ends in accordance with the Constitution. However, given Trump’s refusal to accept defeat in 2020, his extralegal and even violent efforts to stay in power and his expressed regret that he left office at all, the greater likelihood is that he will, like Putin and Xi, find ways to extend his reign to the end of his natural days and become, effectively, President-for-Life.
He will also be ruling with complete legal immunity, with a completely subservient Congress, a completely compliant Supreme Court and a law enforcement establishment and military that he will not hesitate to deploy to physically crush any opposition.
He is as absolute and unchecked a ruler as America has ever had since King George III.
By their votes the majority of Americans have determined that this is what they want. They chose to inaugurate an era of darkness and oppression.
But what can Americans who believe in the virtues of justice, constitutional government and democracy do?
When there is no formal path to change, there can only be resistance.
There have been other times when America seemed far from its ideals. During the slave era, when this oppressive, peculiar institution had legal, religious and governmental sanction, anti-slavery Americans resisted by forming the Underground Railroad, smuggling slaves to freedom. During Jim Crow, people resisted discrimination and racism any way they could and eventually succeeded in breaking its shackles. During the first Trump presidency, when Americans opposed administration efforts to target migrants, they resisted by forming sanctuary cities where they refused to comply with directives they felt were unethical.
It is a tragedy when law and government diverge from what is moral but it has happened in America before and America appears poised to do so again.
If Trump takes his governing principles from Putin, Americans might draw their inspiration from Russian dissidents. People like Boris Pasternak, Andrei Sakharov, Alexander Solzhenitsyn and Anatoly Shcharansky fought and struggled and pursued freedom, truth and dignity despite the overwhelming and seemingly invincible edifice that was the Soviet state. Then, as Putin’s presidency became more oppressive , people like Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Garry Kasparov followed in their footsteps.
Despite the vast odds against them, these people were driven by democratic visions and idealism. They persisted in their dissent over a long period of time without any promise of ultimate success or any prospective date for future victory.
The Rev. Martin Luther King once said that “the arc of history is long but it bends toward justice.” With the election of Donald Trump that arc will be far longer than it might otherwise have been. But unless people continue their efforts to bend it toward justice, it will not bend by itself.
As it was for the American founders and all those who have struggled since, the ultimate goal will remain, as always, justice, equality, dignity and freedom. As in the past, when success was uncertain and the outcome wasn’t guaranteed, people had to commit their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor to their cause.
The 2024 Collier County, Fla., “I Voted” sticker designed by Alayna Gruber, 7th Grade, East Naples Middle School. (Artwork: CCSoE)
Nov. 4, 2024 by David Silverberg
Today, Monday, Nov. 4, the eve of Election Day, the outcome of the 2024 general election has probably already been determined.
Nationally, 46 percent of the voters who cast their ballots in 2020 have already cast their ballots this time, according to a tally being kept by the Associated Press and The Washington Post.
In Florida, that’s 66 percent of the voters who voted in 2020.
In Southwest Florida, as of this morning, 65.4 percent of voters in Collier County, 65.8 percent in Lee County and 64.89 percent in Charlotte County had already voted.
Tomorrow will be the last day of voting. More importantly, it will be the day the votes are counted.
The Paradise Progressive made its endorsements on Sept. 30, just before mail-in and in-person voting began.
But a decent respect for the opinions of humanity and the historical record merits reaffirming the endorsements for federal office as well as adding some additional observations.
So, just to be clear, The Paradise Progressive endorses Vice President Kamala Harris for president, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for the United States Senate and Kari Lerner for US Congress from Florida’s 19th Congressional District.
Alert readers might notice that all these candidates are women. Some people have also observed that if she wins, Harris will be the first female president of the United States.
In this case gender is irrelevant. It should not be the deciding factor in making a decision.
Vastly more important are the questions: Which candidate is the most fit, competent, and qualified to hold the office being sought? Who will govern best in an executive position? Who will best represent constituents in a representative, legislative position? Who will serve the nation as a whole and protect, preserve and defend the Constitution?
In this regard there is no contest.
Election of the fittest
Vice President Kamala Harris (Photo: White House)
Harris is not only qualified, she has in effect served a presidential apprenticeship over the past four years. So she not only has credentials as a prosecutor, state attorney general and senator, she has also been involved in presidential-level decisionmaking. She knows the issues and the institution but most of all, she knows how to govern and can put that knowledge to work from the moment she is sworn into office.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Photo: Author)
Mucarsel-Powell understands the requirements and responsibilities of being a representative of the people, having served in the US House of Representatives. But equally important for a United States senator, she has international experience, not only in her personal life but also professionally. In 2022 she was an advisor for the Summit of the Americas, a periodic gathering of North and South American leaders to discuss common concerns. Her Ecuadorian origins and her immigrant experience as well as her familiarity with immigration policy issues give her critical insight into Florida and its diverse population and will make her a very effective senator for all Floridians.
Kari Lerner (Photo: Campaign)
Lerner, running for Congress, also has experience representing constituents to a higher body and successfully introducing and moving legislation. She served in the New Hampshire state legislature where she succeeded in introducing a landmark bill protecting children from underage marriage. She shepherded it through the body where it passed with overwhelming bipartisan support. She will know how to navigate the House of Representatives and be able to effectively represent the people of Southwest Florida and their interests.
Not only do these women have the experience and credentials for the positions they are seeking, they also have the temperament.
Donald Trump (Art: DonkeyHotey)
It is supremely ironic that in a presidential race that Donald Trump has made about issues of masculinity and femininity, it is the female candidate who has proven herself calm, rational and disciplined—traditionally seen as male virtues—while the male candidate has proven himself emotional, excitable and even hysterical, characteristics traditionally attributed to women.
Harris has a governing personality. Trump does not. Both have histories that back this up.
But this isn’t just the case at the top of the ticket.
Sen. Rick Scott (Art: Donkeyhotey)
In the race for Florida’s junior Senate seat, incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has proven himself a master of ineptitude. He has repeatedly sabotaged his own preferred courses of action, with real impacts on Florida. His personal insults and attacks on President Joe Biden when Biden came to Florida in the wake of Hurricane Ian to offer aid certainly did not help the state. To add injury to insult, Scott voted against appropriations that the state desperately needed. Misjudging his level of support in the Senate, Scott unsuccessfully tried to overthrow his own party leader, Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). He put forward a plan to sunset Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid on which a large proportion of his state’s population depends. He and the governor cannot abide each other. On top of this is his absolute denial of climate change, which is ravaging the state he purports to serve.
Scott has repeatedly proven that he does not have the temperament or judgment to be an effective representative of Florida and Florida has suffered for it.
Mucarsel-Powell is clearly the better choice for senator.
When it comes to Congress, Lerner’s appeal to voters has been rational, sensible and reasoned. She has pledged to focus on the district and its needs and done so in a calm, deliberate way.
Rep. Byron Donalds as caricatured by Steve Brodner of The Washington Post. (Art: WP)
By contrast, incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds serves only two people: Donald Trump and himself. Initially pursuing a potential vice presidential slot, he tried aping Trump’s crude insults, outrageous lies and bizarre delusions in a variety of media platforms and interviews. Even after he was rejected in favor of Sen. James David “JD” Vance (R-Ohio), Donalds kept up the drumbeat.
That drumbeat became ever more agitated, unhinged and delusional as the year progressed.
But beyond his complete subservience to Donald Trump, his ideological blindness, his indebtedness to ideological and corporate political action committees, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, his COVID denial, his initial failure to secure earmarks that would benefit his district, his unrealistic and time-consuming pursuit of higher offices, his neglect of his district in the wake of disastrous hurricanes, his unbending opposition to appropriations for the good of his district, the people of Florida and the welfare of the United States, there is the stark reality of his legislative ineffectiveness. Other than throwing bills into the hopper Donalds has achieved virtually nothing for his district and its people during his time in office.
Nor should anyone expect him to change in any way if he wins another term. Indeed, the greater likelihood is that he will immediately start pursuing the governorship, which the current occupant must vacate in 2026.
In contrast, Lerner has pledged to focus on the district and the needs of its people as well as the legislative means that will achieve those ends. She can be taken at her word.
A final word on Amendment 4
Of all the measures on the ballot in Florida this election, none approaches the impact and momentousness of Amendment 4, which guarantees a woman’s right to choose abortion if she and her healthcare provider consider it necessary.
All the arguments for and against Amendment 4 will not be repeated here; no doubt they’re too well known to readers.
But it’s worth making the point that when Roe v. Wade was overturned, it deprived women of a right they had previously been granted. In a country built on the idea that people have “inalienable rights” it was not only an emotional shock but a constitutional one and a very threatening precedent.
The great danger here is that when one right is repealed all others are jeopardized. In Florida it is one reason why overturning the six-week abortion ban by passing Amendment 4 is so urgent. Losing one right means others, including those in the original Bill of Rights, are in jeopardy—and in a Trump dictatorship they are likely to be abolished at the tyrant’s whim.
Democracy on the line
More than any individual candidate or amendment or measure, it is democracy itself that is on the line in this election. This is abundantly clear to the majority of the electorate and it has been noted often in these pages. A Trump victory will mean defeat for America, its values, its people, its rights, its Constitution, its place in the world and, most of all, its democracy.
It has taken 248 years of struggle, sacrifice and commitment to reach this point. Incredibly, survival of all that effort will come down to the results of the vote as counted on Tuesday and in the days following. America could become something extremely different, darker and dysfunctional or go on to new chapters in greatness.
Here’s hoping that democracy wins.
May we all go into the future with clear consciences, knowing we did whatever we could to ensure, as Abraham Lincoln said in the Gettysburg Address, “that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”
Rep. Byron Donalds at the Congress, Cognac and Cigars event in Philadelphia, Pa., on June 4. (Photo: Monica Herndon/Philadelphia Inquirer)
Nov. 1, 2024 by David Silverberg
A red tide drifting toward Charlotte, Lee and Collier county beaches highlights the failure of Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) to advance legislation that would aid Southwest Floridians in the event the algal bloom becomes a major disaster.
Red tide is a naturally occurring toxic microscopic algae that kills marine life and causes respiratory distress in humans. The current tide is drifting southward from the Tampa area following hurricanes Helene and Milton.
During his time in Congress, Donalds has done nothing to promote the Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act (House Resolution (HR) 1008), which he introduced on Feb. 14, 2023. The bill would allow the federal government to declare harmful algal blooms (HABs) major disasters eligible for federal aid.
Since he has done nothing to advance the legislation, if the current red tide arrives at local beaches and persists, Southwest Floridians and businesses will not be able to receive any federal assistance if homes become unlivable or their businesses are hurt.
With a three-word addition, HR 1008 amends the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, the law that defines and determines what officially constitutes a disaster. It also sets out the authorities and responsibilities of different federal agencies in responding to disasters. HR 1008 would make a slight change to the existing law, striking the words “or drought” and inserting “drought, or algal blooms.”
The Big Bloom and aftermath
The need to include HABs as major disasters grew out of the “Big Bloom” of 2018. This red tide went on for roughly a year, first appearing in October 2017 and then intensifying and peaking in the summer of 2018, finally breaking up in the late fall.
The Big Bloom significantly damaged the area’s economy. Based on surveys filled out by area businesses, 152 or 92 percent of surveyed business owners stated they had lost business due to the red tide in the Gulf. Of them, 126 or 76 percent stated they had lost $500,000 or more. Others estimated losses between $20,000 and $2,000. It also resulted in adverse national publicity for Southwest Florida, dampening tourism.
In response, in 2019 then-Rep. Francis Rooney, who represented the 19th Congressional District, the coastal area stretching from Cape Coral to Marco Island, introduced the Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act and a second piece of legislation, the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act, which would ensure that HAB monitoring by federal agencies continued despite any government shutdowns.
Rooney’s legislation advanced to the point of committee consideration but went no further. He declined to run for another term in 2019 and his seat was won by Donalds.
Among his first actions in Congress, Donalds introduced the Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act and the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act upon taking office in 2021.
However, he never advanced either piece of legislation during his first two years in office and they died when the 117th Congress adjourned.
In 2022 Donalds was re-elected. Once again, he reintroduced both pieces of legislation. Again, he made no effort to advance the bills, which were referred to committees where they were not considered.
As a result, this year Southwestern Floridians and businesses will not be eligible for federal assistance if a red tide bloom damages lives and businesses.
Analysis: Donalds’ ineffectiveness and incompetence
Donalds has been hyperactive in introducing legislation during the current session of Congress. According to the official record of Congress, he introduced 81 bills and five amendments. None of the bills he introduced advanced beyond the introductory phase.
However, in the four years he has been in office Donalds has proven unable or unwilling to focus and do the hard work it takes to get legislation through Congress.
Donalds’ failure stands in stark contrast to the success of his neighbor to the north, Rep. Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.), who represents parts of Charlotte and Sarasota counties.
A hard-core Republican conservative and Trumper like Donalds, Steube nonetheless recognized the needs of constituents—and all victims—for tax breaks in the wake of disasters like hurricanes and wildfires. In October 2023 he introduced the Federal Disaster Tax Relief Act of 2023 (HR 5863) to provide these tax breaks and also extend them to victims of the East Palestine, Ohio train derailment and chemical release.
When HR 5863 didn’t move in the House, in large part because of the neglect of House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-4-La.), Steube chose to employ a rarely used tool called a “discharge petition.” This meant getting a majority of House members, 218, to sign a petition demanding the bill be brought to the House floor for a vote, no matter what the Speaker preferred.
It took a long effort to round up the members from both parties to sign the petition but Steube persisted. On May 15 he got the last signature needed, forced his bill to the floor and on May 21 it passed by an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 382 to 7. (Donalds did not vote on the bill.)
The kind of persistence, focus and effort that Steube made is the kind it takes to get legislation through Congress—but it is also the kind of effort Donalds has never made and seems incapable of or uninterested in making.
Instead, Donalds has concentrated on advancing himself in Republican ranks, unsuccessfully pursuing Republican Conference Chair, Speaker of the House and vice presidential running mate to Donald Trump.
Indeed, the past year Donalds almost entirely spent his time promoting Trump and bashing President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He has traveled around the country in the service of Trump, smoking cigars and drinking cognac in Atlanta and Philadelphia and making stump speeches and appearing on far right media outlets to regurgitate an unoriginal mix of accusations, insults and falsehoods when he wasn’t praising Jim Crow discrimination for its family values. At best he’s walked the beach for photo ops and signed a few letters with other members of Congress.
What he most emphatically has not done is attend to the needs of his district, which was hit by hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton and now seems destined to suffer a red tide—and even another possible very late season storm.
The Southwest Florida coast is vulnerable, suffering and its people are in pain. They are getting no succor, sustenance or support from their current representative in Congress.
When The Paradise Progressive launched in December 2018 it was inspired by The Washington Post and its then-newly minted motto, “Democracy dies in darkness.”
The motto had the benefit of being absolutely true: democracy does die in darkness. But to this author it seemed incomplete. While it accurately described what happens when darkness descends, there was a more positive aspect that needed to be expressed.
And so, The Paradise Progressive chose to complete the thought: “but liberty lives in light.”
“Democracy dies in darkness but liberty lives in light”—in the years since, this has been reality that has guided this platform and its coverage. The last part of that sentence marks the close of every article.
On Friday, Oct. 25, The Washington Post announced that it was declining to make an endorsement in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
In the most consequential contest between democracy and dictatorship in American history, The Washington Post as an institution chose to sit on the sidelines.
There is no middle ground here. On one side is a strong, caring committed candidate who will uphold democracy, America and the Constitution. On the other is a vengeful, selfish, delusional would-be dictator who vows to snuff out freedom, terminate the Constitution and kneel to Russia and a constellation of dictators.
As reprehensible as it was, Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos’ reluctance to endorse was certainly understandable. After all, political endorsements come with consequences.
There is retaliation, both great and small, for making an endorsement that a candidate and his followers may not like. (For example, when The Paradise Progressive endorsed Cindy Banyai in the Democratic congressional primary election in 2020, it was prohibited from ever posting again on the largest Democratic chat room in Southwest Florida.)
As The Paradise Progressive has stated many times—indeed, every time it has made endorsements during its existence—it is the duty of a media outlet covering politics to endorse a candidate when choices are difficult. Following candidates and political developments on a regular basis gives journalists insights and knowledge that need to be shared with voters. Whether the outlet is national or local television, print newspapers or even a simple blog, it is the obligation of independent media in a free society to help voters make an informed choice.
It is the failure of The Washington Post to fulfill this duty, which it has otherwise done since 1976, that is so painful and hurtful to democracy and betrays its own motto.
Since threats and intimidation are part of Donald Trump’s standard modus operandi, no doubt the threats to Bezos and his business empire were explicit, far-reaching and, under a Trump dictatorship should it come to that, devastating.
For millions of people who have looked to The Washington Post as a pillar of democracy, fearless journalism and a source of enlightenment, the non-endorsement was a stunning blow. Expressions of outrage and disappointment have been broad, loud and intense. They range from Washington Post staffers and columnists, to readers and subscribers who are vowing to cancel their subscriptions in droves.
Bezos lacked the courage and commitment of the newspaper’s previous owner, Katherine Graham. He didn’t even have the guts of Taylor Swift, who endorsed Harris after her debate with Trump.
The Washington Post now joins Los Angeles Times and its owner Patrick Soon-Shiong, in choosing not to take sides in this epochal contest.
One of the pitiable aspects of this affair is that both The Washington Post and Los Angeles Times were much improved by their respective owners. The Los Angeles Times was ailing financially before Soon-Shiong’s firm, NantCapital, bought it in 2018 and made a major investment in it.
Bezos’ ownership of The Washington Post, which he bought in 2013, also provided new investment. It allowed the hiring of top-notch new staffers. Coverage became more extensive and deeper. It modernized digitally across all platforms and its presentation of content became more sophisticated and creative. To the best of this author’s ability to determine, Bezos did not intervene editorially and left decisionmaking to well-regarded professionals—until now.
Darkness in Southwest Florida
TheWashington Post has virtually no impact in Southwest Florida and so very few people (this author among them) are affected by its endorsement failure. Had it endorsed Kamala Harris, as it was about to do, it was unlikely to sway any local votes at all.
But Southwest Florida has long been living in a media darkness of its own that proves the truth of The Washington Post motto.
A judge subsequently ruled the state’s actions to be unconstitutional.
“To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it’s the First Amendment, stupid,” wrote Chief US District Judge Mark Walker of the Northern District of Florida in issuing a restraining order against the state on Oct. 18. (WINK resumed running the ad five days after suspending it.)
Sadly, the local media weakness in upholding the media’s constitutional role of scrutinizing government, highlighting wrongdoing and informing the public goes beyond just a lack of political reporting and endorsements.
Most notably, there has not been a single debate between local candidates sponsored by any local media organization during this year’s campaign season. There were a few “forums” but these are not debates, nor were they covered or broadcast.
Moreover, this comes in a year when Americans witnessed two of the most consequential political debates in American history. The first was on June 27 of this year when President Joe Biden proved incapable of holding his own against Donald Trump and was moved to drop out of the race. The other was on Sept. 10 when Vice President Kamala Harris crushed the former president, who was reduced to babbling about a “concept of a plan” and accusing Haitian immigrants of eating cats and dogs.
In a year when debates were front and center on the national stage, Southwest Florida, its media and its civic institutions could not find the will, time or resources to hold debates for any local office up for election.
In the past, local debates were a traditional rite of democracy for offices high and low, so common they were mocked as boringly mundane in the song “Mrs. Robinson” (“…going to the candidates debate…”).
However, avoiding debate is now a standard Republican tactic. A vigorous, principled media that takes its responsibilities seriously would force a debate but that is certainly not the case in Southwest Florida.
In this year’s congressional contest for the 19th Congressional District, the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island, Democrat Kari Lerner challenged incumbent Republican Rep. Byron Donalds to a debate. He ignored the challenge and not a whimper of protest was heard from the local media in either condemning this failure or offering to conduct a debate. He suffered no penalty and did not have to defend his record or argue the issues.
In this he joins his Republican predecessor, former congressman Francis Rooney, who similarly refused debate during his re-election campaign in 2018 and suffered no penalty for it.
If democracy is not entirely dead in all of Southwest Florida then the media piece of it has certainly wilted like a patch of grass in dry season.
Commentary: Liberty and safety
All these failures to stand on the side of the Constitution, press freedom and democracy directly threaten the media platforms that abstain from their paramount duty to uphold American democracy.
In particular the Post’s non-endorsement is an act of monumental cowardice and a dark stain on the history of the institution, particularly because it’s located in the nation’s capital and political coverage is its strong point. But more importantly, the non-endorsement will not protect Bezos and the Post, for if Trump comes to power, the Post is likely to be the first newspaper that he closes.
Indeed, whether in Washington, Los Angeles, Southwest Florida or anywhere else, the free and independent media as a whole will likely cease to exist in a Trump regime as he and his army of sycophants and enablers shut down newspapers, cancel broadcasting licenses and censor online platforms.
Even now, American media outlets don’t seem to have grasped their stake in this contest. A Donald Trump dictatorship is an existential threat—and existential means they will cease to exist. There will no longer be a free press. They will be eliminated. No amount of neutrality or objectivity on their part will change this—and even Fox News won’t be immune as his rants against that conservative network have proven.
Bezos, Soon-Shiong, Gannett, Hearst, Murdoch, the McBride family that owns WINK TV, and all other media owners may think they can stand aside and find some safe, non-controversial ground that protects their investments and interests and doesn’t offend readers and viewers but there is no such place in this contest.
What is more, none of their business empires will be safe either, as has been demonstrated by President Vladimir Putin of Russia. He warred on that country’s billionaires until he brought them to heel. Those who didn’t comply went to prison or “fell” out of windows. Do American owners really think that Trump, a slavish admirer of Putin, will do any less?
Benjamin Franklin famously said: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
If he were alive today, Franklin would say exactly this about these non-endorsements and the cowardice of media in the face of a clear and present danger. If Trump comes to power their cowardice will not protect them. He will swallow them whole. Whatever “little temporary safety” these owners and managers hope to cling to, they will lose the “essential liberty” that makes their existence possible. Not only will they not deserve liberty or safety, they simply won’t have it.
However, their cowardice does not have to extend to everyone else. Every patriotic, thinking, freedom-loving American can make up in commitment and with his or her vote what these moguls lack in courage.
On Tuesday, Nov. 5, democracy does not have to die in darkness.
The 2024 early vote as a share of total 2020 turnout in the United States. (Source: Associated Press and The Washington Post.)
Oct. 27, 2024 by David Silverberg
The only poll that matters is now under way. People are actually voting—and voting in large numbers.
All the relentless polling reported in the media and private polling firms to date was relevant in its time to measure movement, trends and indications in the electorate. Based on those results, campaigns could adjust their approaches, pundits could calibrate their punditry, pollsters could get attention, media outlets had an easy source of headlines and the public could get some indication of voter sentiment.
But with ballots being cast the guesses and projections of the pollsters are now largely irrelevant, although not entirely, because there may still be some undecideds and non-voters yet to be swayed. But it’s safe to say that the majority of Americans have likely made up their minds. A poll one way or another is not going to significantly indicate the outcome.
All the media attention has been on swing states and Florida is largely being overlooked.
But after a week of in-person voting, Southwest Florida supervisors of elections are reporting high turnout.
The turnout gives some indication of the ultimate results because the supervisors report the vote by registered voters. In past elections, people have tended to vote their registrations.
But though the numbers of registered votes are available, the actual tally will not be known until the results are announced on Election Day, Nov. 5. People may vote outside their registered party, which is a strong possibility this year.
These statistics also give no indication of the likely results of any of the ballot amendments or other down-ballot races.
Nonetheless, here is what is available from Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties as of Sunday night. All figures are provided by supervisors of election offices, which are required by state law to provide these figures. Complete, real-time results can be seen on the supervisors’ webpages and links are provided for each county.
As of 8:10 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 41.56 percent of Collier County’s 264,077 eligible voters (109,739 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 51.03 percent were cast by mail and 48.91 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 58.91 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 20.84 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 18.35 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 1.9 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Collier County.
This compares with a final turnout of 64.7 percent for the 2022 election and a 90.4 percent turnout for the 2020 election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
As of 8:20 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 42.07 percent of Lee County’s eligible voters (490,412 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 61.21 percent were cast by mail and 38.75 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 52.89 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 24.05 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 20.95 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 2.11 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Lee County.
This compares with a final turnout of 50.75 percent for the 2022 general election and an 81.1 percent turnout for the 2020 general election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
As of 8:40 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 39.97 percent of Charlotte County’s eligible voters (155,093 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 53.08 percent were cast by mail and 46.85 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 53.98 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 24.40 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 18.8 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 2.82 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Charlotte County.
This compares with a final turnout of 60.61 percent for the 2022 general election and a 77.22 percent turnout for the 2020 general election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
Florida in the nation
According to figures from the Associated Press and The Washington Post, as of Sunday, Oct. 27 at 5:55 pm, in the entire country, 26 percent of the number of people who cast ballots in the last presidential election had voted early in this one.
Florida ranked seventh among the states at 39 percent. Georgia was first, with 56 percent.
The 2024 early vote as a share of total 2020 turnout. Not all states are shown. (Source: Associated Press and The Washington Post.)
Early in-person voting in Collier and Lee counties continues until Nov. 2 and in Charlotte County until Nov. 3. The locations of early in-person polling places are available on the supervisors’ websites.
The Paradise Progressive 