With an impeachment vote looming, the members of Southwest Florida’s congressional delegation are preparing for a day of reckoning when they must vote whether or not to impeach the president. The magnitude of the issue has made for increased scrutiny of their statements and criticism of their reactions.
Rep. Rooney’s reasoning
Rep. Francis Rooney
Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) has not retreated from his earlier statements that he is open to considering the evidence but that a strong case needs to be made if impeachment is to occur.
“Surprisingly, I have been criticized by many ardent supporters of the President for saying that I can’t say whether I am for or against his impeachment until I see all the facts and evidence,” he stated in a Dec. 9 statement. “I still feel strongly that we need to develop all possible evidence that could bear on such an important decision. How can such an important decision be made otherwise?”
Nonetheless, he stated that “I do not believe that the President’s behavior related to Ukraine was proper” and the work of US diplomats should not be undermined.
He also complained that top officials and individuals like Rudy Giuliani, John Bolton, former national security adviser, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had not testified. “How can we move forward on such an impactful process as impeachment without them…?” he asked.
He argued that the impeachment process should not proceed until “no stone is left unturned.” However, the statement did not rule out his voting for impeachment should it come up for a vote in the House.
(Rep. Rooney’s full statement follows at the conclusion of this article.)
Steube’s statement
Rep. Greg Steube and Barry Berke.
Rep. Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.), whose district includes Port Charlotte and Venice, has been vocal in criticizing the impeachment process and Democrats.
The impeachment process “is nothing but an attempt to subvert the will of nearly 63 million voters,” Steube said in an Oct. 31 statement following the House vote establishing the procedures for the impeachment process. Nothing he has said since has indicated any change in that position.
Steube sits on the House Judiciary Committee where he has been an ardent defender of the president.
It was while questioning witnesses on Monday, Dec. 9 that Steube’s remarks sparked widespread online criticism for what many observers regarded as an anti-Semitic slur.
Steube read a prepared statement condemning Barry Berke, the lawyer who presented the Democratic case for impeachment. As special counsel to the Committee, Berke served as the architect of the Democratic case and laid out the facts in testimony before the committee.
“Mr. Berke is an unelected, New York lawyer, specifically brought in by the Democrats to give his opinion,” said Steube when it was his turn to speak. “[He is] a politically biased consultant who has given hundreds of thousands of dollars in federal elections to the likes of Act Blue, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Biden.”
Steube kept hammering at Berke’s New York connections. “Mr. Berke is a white collar criminal defense lawyer who brags on his website of getting New York financial brokers deferred prosecution for tax fraud, and fund managers off insider trading charges.”
Steube repeatedly charged that Berke had “lied”—without giving evidence. “This is who was sitting at the top of the dais, next to the chairman, acting like a member of this committee; a partisan New York lawyer with a written bias against President Trump who gave thousands to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.”
The term “New York lawyer” has widely regarded by many observers as an anti-Semitic dog whistle for “Jewish.”
Rep. Ted Deutch (D-22-Fla.), also a member of the committee, tried to ask Steube what he meant by “New York lawyer” but Rep. Jerold Nadler (D-10-NY), chairman of the committee, would not allow the question in order to keep the proceedings moving forward.
“Rep. Greg Steube just described Barry Berke as a ‘New York lawyer.’ Multiple times,” tweeted a Jewish activist group called Bend the Arc. “Let’s be clear: that’s coded language for ‘Jew.’ Again and again, Trump & his enablers invoke antisemitism to distract from impeachment & promote bigotry. Leave our Jewish community alone.”
Steube dismissed the controversy. “It’s ridiculous to think my comments were anything but aimed at liberal Democrats who will stop at nothing to impeach this President,” he said after the hearing.
Mario’s silence
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.), whose district stretches from Golden Gate to Hialeah on the east coast of Florida, has remained remarkably silent on his position regarding impeachment.
In the past, Diaz-Balart has been a faithful party soldier, voting with the president 91 percent of the time over the course of his career, according to the website FiveThirtyEight.com.
The Paradise Progressive reached out to Diaz-Balart’s office for comment and clarification of his impeachment position. If an answer is received, this article will be updated.
Full statement of Rep. Francis Rooney on impeachment:
Regardless of my or anyone’s opinion about the President’s treatment of the Ukrainians, Rudy Giuliani or anyone else, impeachment is such a grave matter that it demands that a strong and clear case be made. Personally, I do not believe that the President’s behavior related to Ukraine was proper and feel that he should not undermine the work of our Ambassadors and foreign service officers who spend their careers protecting United States’ interests around the world, often at great hardship, but the issue is whether this is criminal and impeachable or not.
Surprisingly, I have been criticized by many ardent supporters of the President for saying that I can’t say whether I am for or against his impeachment until I see all the facts and evidence. I still feel strongly that we need to develop all possible evidence that could bear on such an important decision. How can such an important decision be made otherwise?
There are several important sources of first-hand testimony about what was or was not said by the president that should be heard under oath, namely Giuliani, Amb. Bolton, Sec. Pompeo, Chief of Staff Mulvaney and the former Secretary of Energy Perry. We will soon know the outcome of the challenge to former White House Counsel Don McGahn’s claim of executive privilege. The result of this case plus existing precedents suggest that a compelling basis exists to compel all these individuals to testify. First-hand accounts like these would affirm that the impeachment process is seeking substantive outcomes based on real facts and accurate information, rather than reflecting a more political objective.
How can we move forward on such an impactful process as impeachment without them, and without any other collateral evidence these witnesses might lead us to, in order show the American people the fairness and thoroughness that this measure merits? Like the legal canon of avoiding “even the appearance of impropriety”, I urge that the leaders of the impeachment process go the extra mile to exemplify impartiality, fairness and objectivity in their deliberations.
This consideration of broadening the inquiry is a different one from whether the facts known at this time justify impeachment. Impeachment is not like a routine criminal indictment that may or may not be based on all possible facts if the legal case has been made. It is a significant Constitutional procedure that fundamentally impacts our institutions and is inextricably linked to the confidence of the American people in their legislators and government. Accordingly, having enough evidence per se is not enough to move forward when much more probative testimony is available to assure that no stone is left unturned.
People march in Naples, Fla., on Jan. 21, 2017 following the inauguration of President Donald Trump to protest his attitudes toward women. (Photo: author)
Dec. 10, 2019 by David Silverberg
Doris Cortese has a nightmare.
The 80-year-old “godmother” of Lee County Republican politics told NBC-2’s Dave Elias in a Nov. 12 interview that her worst fear is that someday Lee County could turn blue.
“I was worried about it. I hope and pray it never happens,” Cortese said.
Doris Cortese is interviewed by NBC-2’s Dave Elias.
Making Cortese’s nightmare come true is exactly what every local Democrat dreams of accomplishing—and not just Lee County but all of Southwest Florida.
But Democrats are under no illusions. No Democrat goes into an election in Southwest Florida thinking that the race will be easy—and no one is ever disappointed.
The race is hard, the path is steep, the odds are long and the obstacles daunting. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be done or that victory is unattainable.
So how can a Democrat win in Southwest Florida? This analysis focuses on the 19th Congressional District, the coastal strip from Cape Coral to Marco Island and the congressional race, but many of the structural issues apply as well to Southwest Florida state legislative districts and districts.
First, let’s survey the obstacles.
The structural impediments
The first thing any candidate looks at are the relative registration rolls and for many the story is told right there: In Lee County, as of Dec. 9, there were 196,365 Republicans or 42 percent; 124,693 Democrats or 27 percent; and 141,563 “others” or 31 percent. In Collier County it was 105,320 Republicans or 52 percent; 48,130 Democrats or 23 percent; and 50,300 “others” or 25 percent.
The party disparity is reinforced through gerrymandering, which keeps potentially Democratic communities like Lehigh Acres and Golden Gate outside the 19th District and absorbed into the largely Republican 17th and 25th districts.
As a result of the Republican majority, all elected public officials are Republican. What is more, the local media tend to be dismissive of Democratic candidates, ignoring their activities, their statements, their stands on the issues and their campaigns. And Republican dominance gives them a tremendous fundraising advantage.
Republican dominance is ironic, given Florida’s past as a solidly southern Democratic state. However, like the rest of the south, Florida began becoming more Republican beginning in the 1950s. President Richard Nixon’s “southern strategy” accelerated the trend in 1968 and 1972. Republicans took over the state house in 1996.
Even so, Florida has been a finely divided toss-up state in election after election.
That see-saw battle, however, has not applied along the Paradise Coast. Naples is the southernmost point of Interstate Highway 75, which comes straight down from the Canadian border, through Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and Georgia. As a result, since the highway’s completion in the 1970s, the area has seen a steady influx of Republicans from the colder regions of the upper Midwest, both as snowbirds and permanent residents. The influx continues today.
If one presumes that past is future, there is no reason not to suppose that this situation will continue. People from Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, mostly Republicans, will continue migrating hither. Republican dominance could be indefinite.
But past trends in this case do not guarantee future returns.
What a Democrat must do to win
How many votes must a Democratic candidate get to win a congressional seat in the 19th Congressional District?
We can begin by looking at the last two general elections, one a midterm, the other a presidential election. (Figures used here come from Ballotpedia.)
In 2018, a total of 339,607 votes were cast for this office. Francis Rooney won 211,465 or 62.3 percent, David Holden won 128,106 or 37.7 percent and “other” votes came to only 36 votes.
But how much higher is the turnout in a presidential election year? In 2016, voter turnout was 363,166. This was Francis Rooney’s first election and he won 239,225 votes or 65.9 percent against Robert Neeld, who without doing any campaigning, won 123,812 or 34.1 percent of the vote. In this election “other” votes came to 129 votes.
Two years later, with vigorous campaigning, fundraising and television advertising, Holden was able to raise the Democratic percentage from the previous election from 34.1 percent to 37.7 percent.
Despite that fluctuation, it’s fairly safe to say that the percentages of Republican to Democratic vote totals in SWFL usually break down to around 65 percent to 35 percent. This has also held true in state races, so it’s a credible assumption.
Turnout in 2020 is likely to be higher than ever before in Southwest Florida. This author is going to project a total vote of 400,000. To win, a candidate would have to get at least 200,001 votes, although 51 percent is a more realistic goal, which in this scenario comes to 204,000 votes.
If the vote total is split 65 to 35 percent, that yields 260,000 Republican to 140,000 Democratic votes. Any Democratic candidate needs to add 64,000 new votes to the Democratic total to reach 51 percent. To be safe, though, it’s better to shoot for 53 percent, or 212,000 votes. That means the Democrat must win 72,000 new votes.
(Editor’s note: Readers are welcome to challenge these numbers and assumptions and provide their own conclusions in comments on the article. However, the one proviso is that to be credible you must show your work: your data, your sources and your calculations.)
Where are so many new votes to be found? Obviously, they must come from the existing base of registered voters.
In this regard new circumstances have upended the old status quo and opened new populations to Democratic candidates. These circumstances are:
The Trump factor
A crowd at the Collier County fairgrounds reacts to candidate Donald Trump’s denunciation of the media on Oct. 23, 2016. (Photo: the author)
For local Republicans, Donald Trump is both their greatest asset and their greatest liability.
He’s an asset in that he can fire up his local base. He’s already proved that with local rallies in 2016, 2018 and with two rallies in 2019, one in Orlando and the other in Sunrise. These events, which are combinations of circus, carnival, worship service and presidential therapy session, indisputably build adoration for him among the faithful. He can be expected to hold at least one in Southwest Florida in the run-up to the election, particularly since Florida is a crucial state for him and he’s now officially a resident. (A first-hand account of a Trump rally by this author can be seen here.)
Trump’s also a liability in that his behavior, his actions, his insults and his increasing irrationality offend and repulse thinking people and many traditional Republicans.
Such Republicans have been expressing themselves openly since his election in 2016. In October 2018, William MacArthur of Naples wrote in a letter published in the Naples Daily News that “Even though I’ve been a Republican for most of my life, as was my father before me, I cannot justify to my grandchildren my voting for Rep. Francis Rooney, senatorial candidate Rick Scott or gubernatorial candidate Ron Desantis.” More recently, in a Nov. 27, 2019 letter in the Naples Daily News, Bruce Beardsley of Naples stated, “It is with increased shame that I admit to still being registered as a member of the Republican Party. The Republican Party exists in name only. It has become the Party of Trump.”
Trumpers dismiss such people as RINOs—Republicans in name only—but the fact is that the more bizarre and offensive the president’s behavior and pronouncements, the more disastrous his decisions, and with impeachment bringing out evidence of his corruption, the larger their ranks grow. That said, their local numbers may not be sufficient to make the decisive difference at election time. But every Republican that Trump drives away from the Grand Old Party is one more vote that’s potentially Democratic, or at the very least, not Republican.
“Grab ‘em by the …”
Protesters at the second women’s march in Naples, on Jan. 20, 2018. (Photo: author)
From the day in 2016 when he was overheard crudely boasting of his sexual exploits, Trump has offended and demeaned women and they have lashed back. It started the day after Trump’s inauguration when millions of women around the world took to the streets to protest, including robust turnout in Southwest Florida.
Women have been motivated to run for office like never before and it made a difference in turning Congress in 2018. Will the same outrage and energy manifest itself in 2020—especially in Southwest Florida where women constitute a majority in Lee County (51.1 percent) and half of Collier County (50.7 percent)?
It’s incorrect to discuss a “women’s vote” as though women are a uniform, unthinking bloc. Like all voters, female voters are diverse and while they share some commonalities, making generalities—on either side—can be a grave error. In Southwest Florida, women for Trump have turned out in numbers at his rallies, while anti-Trump protestors have made impressive showings at demonstrations and protest marches.
One issue that has mobilized politically active women is the question of abortion and provision of women’s health services. In Southwest Florida, the Trumper candidates are almost uniformly anti-choice, at least those who have expressed themselves on the issue. State Rep. Dane Eagle, the leading candidate for the Republican congressional nomination, is vehemently anti-choice and has a legislative history of trying to restrict and reduce women’s health options and abortion access.
Trump is also opposed to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and his administration has done everything it can to gut the program, something that also doesn’t sit well with voters who care about health and family issues.
So it may be that female Republican voters offended by Trump and opposed to Trumpist attitudes on healthcare and women’s health issues offer one of the best opportunities for a Democratic candidate to win over new votes.
The uncommitted
The number of voters who are not registering with either major party has grown in recent years and now constitute 31 percent of Lee County voters and 25 percent of Collier County, according to Election Office figures.
(Terminology note: Independent voters and non-party affiliated (NPA) voters are not the same. There is an Independence Party of Florida, so technically, “independents” are actually members of a party. In this article non-party affiliated voters will be referred to as NPAs.)
Theoretically, the “other” voters represent a rich source of votes. However, the appearance is deceptive. NPAs may not register with a party out of laziness, indifference or ignorance rather than conviction, meaning that they may not bother to vote at election time.
“Although great emphasis is placed upon the importance of winning independent voters, their vote has been relatively evenly split in the recent past,” she wrote. “In 2008, Obama won the independent vote by only 7 percent and, in 2012, Rick Scott won the independent vote by a similarly small margin (8 percent).”
So while there is no reliable survey data, the likelihood is that NPA votes may split in the same proportion as party votes. In short, NPAs can be won over but it would be a mistake to assume that they can make the decisive difference.
On Nov. 6, Democrats made great gains in Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania thanks in large part to suburban voters. Indeed, the Pennsylvania results were considered particularly significant.
“The biggest red flag I’d be worrying about is Pennsylvania,” Russ Schriefer, a Republican strategist wrote to The Washington Post after the election. “[It is a] key, targeted state and critical to the Trump coalition. Yet Democrats cleaned up in the suburbs, sweeping in Delaware County — a county with a 30,000 [Republican] plurality and under [Republican] control since the Civil War, an area filled with college-educated, upper/middle income, primarily white voters that were once the bedrock of the Republican Party.”
That seems to describe suburban sentiment across the country.
Southwest Florida is not Delaware County but in 2020 attitudes could change.
New northern influxes
Although Midwesterners provide the majority population in the district, there are increasing numbers of northeasterners coming to Southwest Florida, particularly from Massachusetts and states like New Jersey. Unfortunately, no hard figures are publicly available and not all these northeasterners are Democrats or liberals. Nonetheless, they may provide additional votes for Democratic candidates.
Seniors, youth and families
Southwest Florida has very high proportions of seniors: 28.6 percent of Lee County is 65 years old or older and 32.2 percent of Collier County. (The national average is 16 percent.) In the past, these voters have tended to be conservative and voted Republican.
However, there are increasing numbers of more youthful voters entering the polling places and especially family-age voters. Nationally, younger voters are trending Democratic. This may also occur in Southwest Florida, particularly in Cape Coral, which has a higher proportion of families with school-age children than in the rest of the district.
Trump policies are neither senior-friendly nor family-friendly. Trump’s international trade policies are driving up prices, eroding the purchasing power of fixed-income seniors. While Trump boasts of his job creation, he’s been no friend to retirees. There have been indications that Trump and Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are taking aim at Social Security and plan to make significant cuts to the program if Trump is re-elected, which would be devastating to Southwest Florida seniors. If Southwest Florida seniors take this into account they could turn against Republicans.
Trump’s relentless war on the Affordable Care Act, while very satisfying emotionally to his followers, is at odds with the national popularity of affordable healthcare, which is a particular concern of Southwest Florida’s many seniors and parents. It may be an issue that Democrats can leverage to their advantage.
The minority vote
President Barack Obama inspired unprecedented minority turnout for his candidacy. Memories of that support linger in many Democratic minds and minority votes, particularly among African Americans and Hispanics who have been so brutally scapegoated and denigrated by Trump, may make a difference nationally in 2020.
But Southwest Florida in general and the 19th Congressional District in particular, are overwhelmingly white—86.8 percent in Lee County, 89.3 percent in Collier County, which translates into 83 percent in the District.
Even if every single eligible minority voter turned out and voted Democratic—and minority turnout has historically been low—it would not be enough to turn the District Democratic.
In 2018 an inordinate amount of local Democratic time and effort was spent on minority campaigning. There is a Democratic commitment to fairness and civil rights that powers this. But while those minority votes are important and will add to Democratic totals—and remember, not all minority votes will be Democratic—the fact of the matter is that while winning minority votes is important, a Democrat is going to have to tear votes away from the white Republican majority in order to win.
That said, statewide, Democrats are making a new push to register and motivate minority voters. Former gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum announced on Dec. 5 that he would be leading a new effort to engage and mobilize young and minority voters across the state and that may have some impact in Southwest Florida.
Hopes and fears
As overwhelming as the task before Southwest Florida Democrats may seem, there are favorable omens around the country.
Again and again since 2016, Democrats have won elections in deep red states like Alabama and Kentucky and turned long-Republican districts in Pennsylvania and Virginia.
In 2020 much will depend on who is nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. Floridians don’t get to weigh in on the question until very late in the process, the presidential preference primary on March 17, when the nominee will probably be known. But a winning national candidate could translate into local momentum.
Winning characteristics
To overcome the obstacles and deficits and win the general election, the Democratic candidate in the 19th Congressional District has to be a fighter, someone who is exceptionally aggressive and energetic. This person will have to be able to connect with people on an emotional level and be both passionate as well as pragmatic. She or he must win over reluctant and recalcitrant voters and give traditional Republicans who have doubts about a second Trump presidency the motivation to vote Democratic, many for the first time. This person will have to be backed by exceptionally committed and energetic activists in both Lee and Collier counties. And robust fundraising abilities certainly will not hurt.
Such a scenario may not have been seen before but that’s not to say it can’t happen at all. What’s past is not necessarily prologue.
And so, on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, Doris Cortese, the godmother of Lee County Republican politics, may just wake up to discover that her nightmare has come true—Southwest Florida has turned blue.
By a vote of 228 to 187, the US House of Representatives today passed the Voting Rights Enhancement Act (House Resolution 4), restoring elements of the 1965 Voting Rights Act to curb voter suppression.
All of Southwest Florida’s congressional representatives voted against the bill, which was opposed by President Donald Trump.
The bill determines which jurisdictions would have to get “preclearance” before they can change voting practices. “Preclearance” is approval from the US Department of Justice or a US District Court.
The law is intended to prevent the kind of voter suppression practices that used to occur in segregationist states. Elements of the Voter Rights Act to prevent these kinds of practices were struck down by the US Supreme Court six years ago. This bill restores those protections in legislation.
Under the bill, for the next ten years states would have to get preclearance if 15 or more voting rights violations occurred in the state during the previous 25 years; or if 10 or more violations occurred during the previous 25 years, at least one of which was committed by the state itself.
A non-state jurisdiction (like a county, town or city) would also need to get preclearance for a 10-year period if three or more voting rights violations occurred there during the previous 25 years.
According to Rep. Terri Sewell (D-7-Ala.), the sponsor of the bill, 11 states would likely be subject to reviews if it became law: Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.
“Our Democratic majority came to Congress with an urgent promise to secure the sacred right to vote,” said House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) before the vote. “We must restore the strength of the Voting Rights Act.”
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.), however, characterized the law as a “grotesquely disguised” voting rights bill.
“In 2006, I proudly voted for the permanent extension of the original Voting Rights Act, which already prohibits voter discrimination on the basis of race or sex, and allows federal judges to take the necessary measures against jurisdictions who violate this law,” stated Diaz-Balart on his website. “The bill brought forth by Democratic Leadership today is not a reauthorization, as it’s already law. Instead, it’s the federal takeover of local elections. This highly partisan legislation, grotesquely disguised as the Voting Rights Act, would give federal bureaucrats control over state and local elections. Once again, Democratic Leadership is focused on phony bills instead of reaching across the aisle to obtain real solutions for the American people.”
The bill now goes to the Senate where it is unlikely to be considered.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces impeachment proceedings.
Dec. 5, 2019 by David Silverberg
The US House of Representatives will move forward with impeachment proceedings, House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) announced today.
“Sadly, but with confidence and humility, with allegiance to our Founders and our hearts full of love for America, today, I am asking our chairmen to proceed with articles of impeachment,” she said in a formal statement. (Also available on video, here.)
Two candidates for the 19th Congressional District seat being vacated by Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) were vocal in their reactions to the announcement. All sitting members of Congress from Southwest Florida were silent.
“After careful review of the report release yesterday by the U.S. House of Representative Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, I fully support the Speaker of the House directing that articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump proceed,” stated Democratic candidate Cindy Banyai on her website. “It simply cannot be tolerated that funds legally allocated by Congress be manipulated for domestic political and personal purposes of the president. Such actions are not only improper, but put US national security at risk, which is unacceptable.”
As of this writing, Democratic candidate David Holden had not issued a statement.
State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) initially tweeted a denunciation of Pelosi and the impeachment proceedings immediately after Pelosi’s statement but subsequently deleted it.
Republican candidate Daniel Severson issued a tweet yesterday, Dec. 4, denouncing law professor Pamela Karlan, who testified before the House Judiciary Committee, stating: “This is your unbiased witness on impeachment today. These #ImpeachmentHearings are nothing more than a partisan exercise to undo an American election. @TheDemocrats know they cannot win at the ballot box against @realDonaldTrump so they are abusing their power to remove him.”
As of this writing, Republican candidates State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78-Fort Myers), Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson, Antonio Dumornay and William Figlesthaler had not issued statements.
State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen being interviewed by NBC-2’s Dave Elias.
Dec. 4, 2019 by David Silverberg
Updated 10 am with age and link to election data.
State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78-Fort Myers) has announced that she is running for Congress in the 19th Congressional District.
Fitzenhagen, 59, made her announcement and launched her campaign website yesterday morning, Dec. 3. As of this writing it has her biography but no policy positions.
“I’ve always supported the president,” she said in response to a question by Elias. “I was here when he had his very first rally and I was one of his first supporters. So my support has been continuous and it will be ongoing.”
Asked about her opinion of impeachment, she said: “I don’t think we should impeach the president. I think that is wrong.”
Fitzenhagen has been an attorney in Fort Myers with Morgan and Morgan for the past seven years. She holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Hollins University, Hollins, Va., and a Juris Doctorate degree from Nova Southeastern University, Davie, Fla.
The 78th Florida House District covers Fort Myers and approximately a third of Lehigh Acres.
Fitzenhagen is currently term-limited and 2020 will mark her last term in the Florida House.
She won her previous races with comfortable margins: 59.3 percent of 68,915 votes over Democrat Parisima Taeb in 2018 and 67.3 percent of 56,033 votes over Independent Kerry Babb in her first race in 2012. In that year, the first after new maps were drawn, she faced a primary race against Jonathan Martin, winning the primary with 68.8 percent of 13,530 votes. She ran unopposed in 2014 and 2016.
Based on her initial interview, it is clear she will be running to out-Trump State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral), who has staked the most extreme pro-Trump, anti-Democratic position of the five Republican candidates running before her entrance into the race. She is the only female candidate on the Republican side.
An image from State Rep. Dane Eagle’s announcement video.
Dec. 2, 2019 by David Silverberg
It took 18 days from the time Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) announced his retirement from Congress on Oct. 19 until State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) made his own announcement on Nov. 6.
“Our values, our way of life and our president are under attack from the far left, the media and even some in our own Republican Party,” Eagle warned ominously in a video statement on Twitter, that subtly lashed out at Rooney.
Against a dark, grayed-out, brooding image of protesters and then a picture of “The Squad” of four Democratic members of Congress, Eagle declared: “Washington has been infiltrated by radical socialists who despise our Constitution and detest our freedoms. They know President Trump is winning, they know he is making America great again and they will stop at nothing to destroy it.”
And so battle was joined on the Republican side and the tone was set for the coming contest.
In the days following Rooney’s abrupt announcement, Southwest Florida’s Republican politicians had some hard thinking to do. The seat was open. The primary on Aug. 18 of the following year would likely determine the election and so this was both an opportunity but one with risk and danger.
One by one the most likely Party candidates took themselves out of the running: State Sen. Lizabeth Benaquisto (R-27), who ran in the 2014 congressional primary, issued a statement saying that “running for Congress in 2020 is not the right path for me and my family… .” State Sen. Kathleen Passidomo (R-28) demurred. Former Lee County Sheriff Mike Scott said that he wasn’t running.
Then, the day before Thanksgiving, Nov. 26, Mayor Randall (Randy) Henderson of Fort Myers announced that he would be running for the seat.
The opportunity to file for the seat is open until noon, April 24, so more candidates may enter. Prime possibilities include State Reps. Byron Donalds (R-80), Bob Rommel (R-106) and Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78).
However, the longer they wait, the more difficult their runs.
The current contenders
Dane Eagle
Dane Eagle
Dane Eagle is a 36-year-old resident of Cape Coral who attended the University of Florida where he earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics. He started out selling real estate and was a broker associate for Commercial Real Estate Consultants in Fort Myers.
But Eagle had early political ambitions and showed promise. At the age of 24, he served as Republican Gov. Charlie Crist’s deputy chief of staff, the youngest person ever to hold that office.
In 2012, the first election after new maps were drawn following the census, Eagle ran for the state legislature in the newly-created 77th District encompassing Cape Coral. In the primary he was up against former city councilman Christopher Berardi and won by 70.6 percent. (Berardi is today Rooney’s press secretary.) Eagle then went on to win the general election against African-American Democrat Arvella Clare by 62.4 percent to Clare’s 37.6 percent.
Once in the legislature, Eagle began a remarkably rapid rise—but it was practically over before it began. On April 21, 2014, at age 31 and the start of his second term he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol in Tallahassee. At 2 am, after nearly colliding with another car and bumping a curb, he was pulled over by a police officer who smelled alcohol and found Eagle’s eyes bloodshot and watery. Eagle denied drinking but stumbled getting out of his car and refused to take a field sobriety test. He blamed the alcohol odor on previous passengers. The policeman’s dashcam video of the entire incident was released to the public.
Eagle’s arrest on April 21, 2014.
In a subsequent statement to constituents he acknowledged that “while there are some decisions that I would have made differently” he said that the full story had not been told and contended that legal proceedings meant he could not discuss it further. Three months later he pleaded guilty to a charge of reckless driving and received six months of probation, had to take alcohol tests and perform 100 hours of community service.
The arrest notwithstanding, Eagle continued a robust legislative career that featured his sponsoring legislation consistent with conservative Republican orthodoxy. He sponsored or co-sponsored legislation to increase criminalization of various aspects of abortion, increase penalties for offenses committed by undocumented aliens (which died in committee), called for a supermajority vote of the legislature to raise any state taxes or fees, and sought to reduce penalties for openly displaying weapons if the person has a concealed weapon permit.
Eagle’s legislative record earned him an “A” rating from the anti-taxation Americans for Prosperity and a 2019 “F” rating from the People First Report Card for his votes on the environment, immigration, public schools, healthcare and other issues.
Eagle had a relatively easy time electorally. In 2014 he defeated three other primary challengers, winning 64.1 percent of 12,410 votes cast and then cruised to victory over Independent Jeremy Wood. He was unopposed in both the primary and general elections of 2016.
In 2018 he won with 63.4 percent of the vote against Democrat Alanis Garcia, the first trans-gender candidate to run in a Florida election.
He also rose through Republican ranks in the legislature, becoming House Majority Whip in 2016 and then House Majority Leader in 2018.
On Oct. 1 of this year at a church in Iceland, he married Brooke Iwanski, a chiropractor based in Fort Myers.
Randall Henderson
Randy Henderson
Randall (Randy) Henderson is the 63-year-old mayor of Fort Myers, an office he has held since 2009. As of this writing he had announced his candidacy but not yet legally filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Born in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Henderson has an extensive record in government. He served on the Fort Myers City Council for nine years before running for mayor and is now in his third term, the first Fort Myers mayor to serve that long.
Professionally he has a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Mars Hill College, Mars Hill, North Carolina, and is a licensed real estate broker in both North Carolina and Florida. He came to Fort Myers in 1979 to take a position with the Ellis Banking Corporation. He left banking in 1986 to join the Corbin Henderson Company, a family-owned firm specializing in office, warehouse and light industrial and multifamily real estate. He’s been very active in civic and business groups
Electorally, Henderson has had some big advantages. During his tenure mayoral races have been held in off-years and the primary election served as the general election. Turnout was extremely low. Henderson won his first race in 2009 with a mere 1,777 votes. In 2013, he won with 65.2 percent of only 886 votes cast, a mere 23 percent turnout of the eligible registered voters. In the 2017 election he won with just 4,073 votes, 70 percent of 20,782 votes cast. (Starting next year, Fort Myers will hold its elections on the same days as presidential primaries and general elections.)
“My 10 years as mayor, including nine years on the City Council, has provided insight and vast experience working in the public sector including solving complex issues while improving the quality of life for the citizens of Fort Myers,” Henderson stated when he announced. “I believe this experience provides me the background to lead the charge for serving citizens in District 19 and bring focus and support from Washington to our district.”
He’s been married to his wife Ginny for 40 years and they have three children: Laura, Marcus, and Alex.
Antonio Dumornay
Antonio Dumornay
Antonio Dumornay is a Miami native who grew up in Naples. The father of three, he began getting involved in local politics in 2015 in the City of Naples and served on a Community Redevelopment Advisory Board.
In a July 3, 2017 meeting at the Unitarian Universalist Sanctuary in Naples covered by the Naples Daily News, Dumornay related his personal experience as an inmate in the criminal justice system. He was arrested selling drugs, which he said he did to support his family during a crisis. He did hard labor and was paid 10 cents an hour “but we didn’t get paid. They promised us gain time, but we didn’t get that either.”
At the meeting Dumornay said was creating an organization to keep people out of the criminal justice system.
On his campaign website Dumornay states that he is concentrating his campaign on community and small business development, infrastructure and education improvement, youth career training and Medicaid expansion.
William Figlesthaler
William Figlesthaler
William Figlesthaler is a Naples-based urologist who is making his first run for public office. According to his professional biography he’s a cum laude alumnus of Wake Forest University and graduated with honors from the University of North Carolina School of Medicine at Chapel Hill, NC. He then completed his urological surgery training at the University of Kentucky, in Lexington, Kentucky. His specialty is treating prostate cancer.
In that interview Figlesthaler stated that he’s completely loyal to President Trump. “I will be loyal to the president. All the way. I believe in Donald Trump’s policies,” he told Elias.
At the same time he demurred when asked if he supported all of Trump’s statements and tweets. “I mean that is a loaded question. He’s not our messiah. He’s not somebody who says, ‘Oh my goodness I worship this man. [sic]’”
Figlesthaler’s second wife, Olga, is a Russian immigrant.
Daniel Severson
Daniel Severson
Daniel Severson, 65, of Cape Coral, is a graduate of St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minn., where he graduated in 1979 with a bachelor’s degree in physics. He enlisted in the Navy in 1978 and served as a Navy fighter pilot, officer and commander until 2000.
In 2002 he won election to the Minnesota House of Delegates where he represented District 14A until 2011 and served as minority whip. In 2010 he ran for Secretary of State but lost to incumbent Democrat Mark Ritchie by 49 percent to Severson’s 46 percent.
In 2012 Severson sought the Republican nomination for the US Senate to run against incumbent Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar. However, he lost the party’s endorsement at the state convention and withdrew from consideration. He was narrowly defeated in his second bid for Secretary of State in 2014, losing to Democrat Steve Simon, who won with 47 percent of the vote to Severson’s 45.9 percent.
On his campaign Facebook page Severson states: “During these impeachment hearings, it is important to remember the American people supported President Trump when they elected him in 2016, and we continue to support him going into 2020. We’ve got your back Mr. President!”
He also states: “Donald J. Trump and Mike Pence are men of God serving in the White House,” and “Christians need to put people of faith back in leadership across all sectors of public office!”
When it comes to the Second Amendment he states: “I am the only person in this race who can truly say I support our Constitutionally protected right to bear arms, which includes assault weapons. As your Representative to the U.S. House, I will fight all legislation that undermines the 2nd Amendment in the slightest.”
Severson is married to Cathy Jo Severson.
Analysis: The fight on the right
OK, we’ve done our due diligence, now let’s get real. As of this writing, there are two credible candidates in this race: Dane Eagle and Randy Henderson.
They both have the name recognition, the historical records, the experience and the access to funding to make them genuine contenders.
An Eagle-Henderson race is going to be an interesting one for a number of reasons:
It pits a Trumper against a Republican
As his video demonstrated, Eagle is tying himself entirely to Trump and playing the conspiracy card, warning of socialist infiltration of government. He has established his campaign on national themes and absolute allegiance to and adoration of Trump, which can be expected to continue.
Henderson, by contrast, is basing his campaign on local issues and his record. He told the News-Press that he intends to run a clean race emphasizing the environment, quality of life, business expansion, infrastructure modernization and disaster resilience issues.
This race is shaping up as a contest between the Trump Cult and the Republican Party for the souls of Southwest Floridians.
It’s a contest of generations
Eagle is 36, Henderson is 63 (a nice bit of numerology there!). Each brings a different generational perspective. With 27 percent of the district 65 or older (28.6 percent in Lee County, 32.2 percent in Collier County), it will be interesting to see which candidate can elicit the greater loyalty from the area’s seniors.
It pits Cape Coral against Fort Myers
Each candidate has his own geographical base, Eagle in Cape Coral, Henderson in Fort Myers. According to current census figures, Cape Coral, the fastest growing city in the country, has 189,343 residents as of July 2018, Fort Myers, 82,254.
Can the personal and ideological appeal of each candidate retain his geographic base and expand it sufficiently to win the nomination?
Turnout will be everything
Robust turnout is always key to an election and that is certainly true in this case. Each candidate will have to motivate his followers to get to the polls by primary day, Aug. 18 amidst the deathly stillness of a Florida summer and the uncertainties of hurricane season—not on Nov. 3, when turnout in the general election should be very big given the presidential election.
Follow the money
This race is going to be more expensive than any either of these candidates have previously run. Will the money come from local donations or contributors outside the district? The sources of funding will say much about whom the winner will serve should he attain office.
Past and future
Both candidates have had a relatively easy time in their past elections.
In his general elections Eagle was up against Democratic candidates who were outside the Cape Coral mainstream: an African-American woman and a transgender person and in 2016 he ran unopposed. This time he’ll be facing a mainstream candidate with a strong record.
Henderson always ran for mayor in off-year elections when the primary was the main contest and turnout was extremely low, requiring few votes to win. Now he’s running in a jurisdiction with over 500,000 registered voters and turnout is likely to be high, given that it’s a presidential election year. He’s going to need lots of money and very vigorous campaigning to win.
Funding and endorsements will be key elements. Eagle has started strongly with numerous endorsements and a reported $100,000 raised in the first few hours of the campaign (although this is based on campaign claims, not on official FEC filings).
The tendency of candidates in any primary contest in any party is to gravitate toward the extremes. Primary voters tend to be people who hold strong political beliefs and are active in party activities. That certainly seems to be the case here.
Already, three of the five declared Republican candidates are vying to show that they are “Trumpier than thou,” so to speak. Like worshipers of some inscrutable god who expresses himself through volcanoes and hurricanes, they appear to hope the sincerity of their belief and their obedience to his commands will be rewarded by divine favor—or votes of the party faithful.
Ironically, the litmus test of true Trumpiness appears to be attitudes on impeachment, which actually has nothing to do with these candidates’ rising class in Congress. Only Rooney, already sitting in Congress, will actually get a substantive vote on anything having to do with impeachment. By the time any of the candidates are elected to the 117th Congress in November 2020, the entire political landscape may have changed and impeachment may no longer be an issue.
Nonetheless, it’s an emotional hot button in Southwest Florida conservative circles—as it is around the nation.
By the time this is posted, other candidates may have jumped in the Republican primary race.
The 2020 election is shaping up to be the most crucial in American history. On a national level, it will likely decide whether the nation remains a democracy—and even whether it has future elections.
Southwest Florida will reflect in microcosm all the nation’s conflicts. It makes for an interesting election—and a potentially cataclysmic one.
Coming next: How a Democrat can win in Southwest Florida
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-23-Fla.) speaks at a protest against President Donald Trump during his rally in Sunrise. (Photo: Matias J. Ocner, Miami Herald, TNS)
Welcome to State of Play, an occasional roundup of political news affecting Southwest Florida.
Nov. 27, 2019 by David Silverberg
Updated 2:05 pm with mentions of Reps. Greg Steube and Mario Diaz-Balart.
Despite a discursive, digressive and dissembling speech that touched on numerous topics and featured shout-outs to Florida politicians, President Donald Trump steered clear of mentioning Southwest Florida at his “homecoming” rally last night, Nov. 26, in Sunrise.
In contrast to past speeches made in southern Florida, Trump did not mention Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) or intervene in the primary race to replace him.
Rooney has stated that he is open to considering evidence that might lead to the impeachment of the president. He has announced his retirement from Congress and a Republican primary race is now under way.
In 2018 Trump’s intervention in the Republican primary for governor enabled the nomination of Ron DeSantis, then a member of Congress.
Trump called Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) “one of the most popular governors anywhere in the country, true [then shouted] though he better not be more popular in Florida than me!”
He then began a strange, convoluted introduction of DeSantis, produced here verbatim:
“So here’s a quick story. I shouldn’t say this, but what the Hell, right? So Ron’s been a friend of mine for a long time. He was a congressman. Did an incredible job, always protecting me from the Russia witch hunt, until beyond, he’d be armed with these guys with Matt [Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-1-Fla.)] and everybody he offered an incredible race, and then he ran against a Democrat who is supposed to be unbeatable. He got beaten badly and, and now this is one of the most popular governors, but I always thought Ron was a little bit heavy and then one day I’m with him and I pat him on the shoulder and I go: ‘Whoa, that’s strong! That’s a lot of muscle, there!’ My hand didn’t sink in, like it does with a lot of people, and then I see him without a shirt one day and this guy is strong and he’s not fat.
“That’s all power. That’s all muscle! I want to tell you that, and I said, ‘Ron you’re one of the few I say it to, don’t walk around with a jacket all the time, take it off. People are going to see the real Ron!’ But he’s a great guy, he’s a tough guy he’s a brilliant guy and he’s our governor and I’m very proud. When we got involved with Ron, a lot of people were saying, ‘You think he can make it?’ I said, ‘He’s going to make it because he’s a champ, he’s a winner!’ and I want you to say a few words, Ron. Thank you.”
Reps. Gaetz, Brian Mast (R-18-Fla.), Michael Waltz (R-6-Fla.), Bill Posey (R-15-Fla.) and Gus Bilirakis (R-12-Fla.) received acknowledgments from the President, who also praised Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody and Pam Bondi, the former state attorney general who is now working on his impeachment defense team, as well as Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nunez. Rep. Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.), who has emerged as Southwest Florida’s top Trump defender, was unmentioned and absent, as was Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.).
In terms of specific mentions of Southwest Florida, the president boasted that he had delivered over half a billion dollars “to fix Lake Okeechobee” and that he had fixed the Hoover Dike and “restored the ecosystems in the Florida Everglades.” [Factual note: Lake Okeechobee and the Hoover Dike are nowhere near “fixed,” although work has begun as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP].)
“It’s been incredible and we did that altogether. They’ve been talking about doing it for years. They didn’t do anything, it’s all almost finished,” [Factual note: Work has been going on steadily since Congress first authorized CERP in 2000.] “It’s finished in some cases, but almost finished and all the money has been gotten for Florida.” [Factual note: Work on CERP is scheduled to continue until at least 2030.] “I also signed legislation authorizing $100 million to fight red tide and other toxic algae that damages our coastal areas and now Ron’s got the money that he wants.”
At no point did Trump acknowledge the work on CERP and blue-green algae done by Rooney during his two terms in Congress.
Cindy Banyai, Democratic candidate for Congress in District 19, has won her first endorsement, from No Democrat Left Behind, a coalition of groups supporting Democratic candidates running in heavily Republican districts.
“We want to bring this party together in a way it has never seen before,” states the coalition’s website. “This groundbreaking campaign is about the people who make this country great: you. We hope to show you that there are candidates from across the nation that are always ready to fight the good fight and stand up for what matters most.”
“The people of Southwest Florida deserve leadership that truly serves them and a dialogue on issues that matter most. No Dem Left Behind’s support of candidates in districts like ours, ensures that more than a few powerful elite voices are heard,” Banyai announced in a press release.
The coalition also endorsed Allen Ellison, Democratic candidate for Congress in District 17, which includes Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Venice and most of Lehigh Acres.
David Holden addresses a town hall meeting on March 21, 2018. (Photo: Author)
Nov. 23, 2019 by David Silverberg
David Holden is hoping the second time will be the charm.
The former financial adviser who ran last year as a Democrat for Congress in Florida’s 19th Congressional District, is going to give it another try. Last week he officially filed as a candidate for the 2020 election under the official campaign committee designation, David Holden for Florida 2020.
Last year he was defeated by incumbent Republican Rep. Francis Rooney.
This time, he says, it’s going to be different.
“I’m thrilled to announce my second campaign for the U.S. House,” Holden told The Paradise Progressive in an e-mail statement. “It’s an honor to run for public office and to be considered to represent the people of Southwest Florida.”
This year the political landscape is radically different; Rooney is retiring. Both the Republican and Democratic fields are up for grabs in Southwest Florida. It’s a presidential election year when interest and turnout is high—and Republican disillusionment with President Donald Trump may be deeper and more pervasive than during the midterms.
But most of all, Holden has the lessons of his past campaign under his belt.
“We’re starting where we finished last time, with strong relationships across the district,” he told The Paradise Progressive in an interview.
When he started campaigning in 2017 Holden was largely unknown both to District 19 Democrats and the general voting population. He had to build a campaign organization from scratch and raise money without an established network. (Full disclosure: This author was his earliest volunteer and served as full-time Communications Director).
Ultimately, though, the Holden campaign set a number of precedents for Southwest Florida and the 19th District. It was the first time since the district’s formation in 2010 that a Democratic candidate raised a credible amount of campaign cash ($575,987.16); the first time a Democrat used television advertising; and the first time more than one candidate competed for the Democratic Party nomination. Also, it was the first time that local Democrats ran for all the offices on the ballot.
In the 2018 election cycle, the Holden campaign had to build its infrastructure and personnel as it went along. This time, says Holden, all the infrastructure is in place at the outset. He has hired a chief operating officer and human resources director, in contrast to the 2018 campaign, which went through three different campaign managers and competing organization charts.
At various times during the 2018 campaign Holden served as campaign manager, something he realizes was a mistake.
“This time I’ll just be the candidate,” he says. He’ll leave administrative, communications and management tasks to others. This campaign, he vows, will have clear lines of communication and a strong organization chart.
In 2018 the field operation was mainly staffed by student volunteers. They were bright and energetic and very effective but the campaign suffered when nearly all of them went back to school in September. This time, Holden is investing heavily in field operations and will have a full-time field director.
The campaign will also be building on its past progress in identifying and reaching non-party affiliated voters. That effort will be intensified, along with greater outreach to Hispanic voters.
“There are lots of votes left to be harvested,” he notes.
Fundraising will also be different and Holden is hopeful it will be more effective. This time he wil build on the networks and donors he established the last time and he has honed his fundraising skills. In contrast to 2018, where fundraising ramped up slowly as the campaign went along, this time, he says, “we’ll raise a significant amount in the first four weeks.”
Indeed, in its first official day of fundraising, Thursday, Nov. 21, the campaign brought in $27,700. It has another $15,000 pledged to come in shortly.
Complying with campaign regulations is complex and difficult. In contrast to 2018, the campaign’s money will be administered by a campaign finance director from the outset and overseen by a compliance professional. “That takes pressure off the senior staff,” he points out.
In 2018 there were numerous campaign volunteers but the mechanism to oversee, train and assign them developed over time. This time, says Holden, those functions will be in place from the start so that the volunteer operation will be robust and quick-reacting. Also, this time he wants to make sure volunteers are fully trained and get the support they need to be more effective from the moment they start working.
The last campaign was headquartered in Naples. In this campaign, vows Holden, he will be spending more time in Cape Coral, Fort Myers and Lee County generally where 75 percent of the district’s voters reside.
Who is David Holden?
Last year was the first time many Southwest Floridians made the acquaintance of Holden, a 60-year-old originally from White Plains, NY.
Holden had some political experience. In the late 1980s and until 1995 he was active in Democratic politics in White Plains, rising from district leader to chairman of the Democratic City Committee and successfully turning a conservative Republican area blue.
His commitment to liberal causes was instilled by his parents who were active in the civil rights and peace movements of the 1950s and 60s. He majored in political science at Temple University, in Philadelphia, Penn., where he graduated cum laude in 1981. He earned a Master of Public Administration degree from Harvard University in 2009.
Professionally, Holden worked in a variety of companies including a graphic arts studio and his own marketing, branding and communications firm in White Plains. In Naples, he and his wife Streeter partnered in the Holden Wealth Management Group of Wells Fargo Advisors, a position he left after the election. This time he is working as a full-time candidate from the outset.
After a decade of spending vacation time in Naples, Holden and Streeter moved to Florida full time in 2015, so they had plenty of time to settle in and build their practice—then came the shock of the 2016 election.
Reverberations and response
“What we experienced on Election Day was for me as unforeseen and unimaginable as anything I have experienced in my lifetime,” Holden recalled in 2017. “It was in a very real sense the overthrow of our governing norms.”
Jolted by Donald Trump’s victory, Holden decided to run in the 19th District. “We’re seeing, around the country and the world, that progressives and rationalists are not going quietly into that good night,” he said at the outset of the campaign. “There’s a will to fight and I have it as well.”
Holden started small, with participation in events and rallies. With time, he matured as a candidate. At first tentative, he gained confidence in his public appearances. He was strongest in town hall meetings, taking questions from voters and listening to their concerns. He was articulate and had good command of the issues. Initially, he tried to juggle his job with his campaigning but ultimately committed himself to campaigning full time. And he threw himself into raising the kind of money that a serious race entailed, building an effective fundraising network in the process.
Holden had an unexpected primary challenger in Todd Truax, a senior care manager. The two engaged in several debates and Holden credibly held his own each time. But the true test of his efforts came on primary day, Aug. 28, 2018, which he won with a crushing 67.9 percent of the 35,922 Democratic votes cast.
The primary victory, however, did not translate into ultimate success. With 339,607 votes cast, Holden lost the general election to Francis Rooney by 62.3 percent to 37.7 percent.
Holden is determined to learn the lessons and avoid past mistakes this time.
It’s also a presidential election year, which makes for a different calculus. “With a strong national candidate we could win the state,” he says.
“I’m more energized than last time,” he vows. “We’re going to run our own kind of race.”
Election Day in Collier County, Nov. 6, 2018. (Photo: David Silverberg)
November 20, 2019 by Marilyn J. Michales
The Goals of the Voter Protection Team are to make certain that each person who is registered to vote has unimpeded access to cast his/her ballot and to assure there is compliance with Florida voting rights statutes.
The Voter Protection Team (VPT) will appreciate help in the following ways:
Volunteer members on the VPT to assist with:
Identifying and training Poll Watchers* and Poll Greeters** (PW & PG);
Assisting with scheduling and preparation of materials for training of PW & PG;
Administrative VPT tasks: communications with and logistics of scheduling of PW & PG, responding to on-going questions and concerns of PW & PG both before and during the election cycles, and general VPT organizational needs;
Monitoring Canvassing Board Meetings;
Scheduling training and arranging, when possible, web cam training;
Communications with Supervisor of Elections Office including specifically certifying Poll Watchers;
Preparation for a possible Election Recount;
Communications and coordination with Collier County Democrats DEC, Clubs, and Caucuses;
Communications with Candidates’ Staff;
Such other efforts consistent with our goals; and
Volunteers to serve as Poll Watchers; and
Volunteers to serve as Poll Greeters.
The legal aspect involved with Voter Protection issues is the overriding concern. Consequently, to augment and expand the VPT and to secure folks for the positions of Poll Watchers and Poll Greeters we are looking for folks with the more specific skill sets and backgrounds.
But please know, everyone with an interest in Voter Protection issues will be enthusiastically welcomed!
If at all possible we are seeking, for example:
(1.) Lawyers (retired and active), accountants (retired and active), retired judges, active or retired business owners, folks with management experience, paralegals etc. (only because these folks may be more willing and comfortable with being in potentially confrontational settings with the legal issues relating to Voters’ Rights and the statutes regulating Florida voting);
(2.) We will need volunteers who have considerable organizational skills, administrative experience, ability to work within deadlines, communications talent and computer skills;
(3.) For Poll Greeters, we will need people who are familiar with and willing to discuss the political issues, the candidates and the various items on the ballots;
(4.) Folks who can be specifically trained on the management and oversight of ballots at each precinct to assure we have proper records in the event of a recount; and
(5.) We may have the added task of assuring that voters who live outside the Gated Communities are allowed unrestricted access each day of voting (this may require us to provide more specific training).
In summary, in addition to the specific skills needed by the Poll Watchers and the Poll Greeters, the VPT will need volunteers with a variety of skills consistent with the VPT Goals.
Specifically for Poll Watchers and Poll Greeters:
A Poll Watcher is someone who, after training, will be posted, in shifts, inside a precinct voting location to oversee the Collier County Precinct workers to make certain there is compliance with Florida voting rights statutes.
**A Poll Greeter is someone who, after training, will be posted, in shifts, just outside the mandatory perimeter adjacent to a precinct voting location to assist voters as they come to vote; to answer questions, pass out voting information etc.
The Poll Watchers and Poll Greeters are critical to achieving our goal. The time commitment for these tasks will essentially be:
Attend a 2-hour training program. Training dates in 2020 will be held in February and then again in the fall of 2020 in advance of the Primary and the General election Voting days. Multiples dates and locations will be scheduled to try to accommodate the needs of our volunteers; and hopefully through the use of live Web Cam sessions.
Poll Watchers and Poll Greeters will need to be available and willing to commit time specifically during each of the election cycles, including the Presidential Primary March 17, Primary (including early voting August) and General (including early voting);
Anyone interested should feel free to call me or send an email if you have any questions.
A satirical map of Florida’s 19th Congressional District. (Illustration by author (c) 2019 by David Silverberg)
Nov. 18, 2019 by David Silverberg
Updated at 12:25 pm with new, updated voter statistics, thanks to June Fletcher.
What is it about Florida’s 19th Congressional District that devours its representatives in Congress?
Since its creation following the 2010 census, the coastal strip from Cape Coral to Marco Island on the edge of the Everglades swamp has had three congressional representatives. That may not sound like a lot but in a mere seven years it’s very unusual turnover for a safely Republican, conservative district.
Now Rep. Francis Rooney is retiring after two terms and the battle is shaping up to replace him. It seems worthwhile to try to discover why what should be a very stable district is in fact so volatile.
(Terminology note: There is no formal title called “Congressman.” A person is either a “Representative” or “Member of Congress,” which is what we’ll mostly be using here, the headline excepted.)
In the beginning…
For the 19th Congressional District, “the beginning” is 2010, the year of the census.
Before that year, the coastal area from roughly Cape Coral to Marco Island was variously the 13th or 14th congressional district and with one interruption was represented by the legendary Mack clan, (actually McGillicuddy, the original name of the Irish immigrant who started it).
Connie Mack III (officially Cornelius Alexander McGillicuddy III) served as Republican representative of the 13th district from 1983 to 1989 before running for the US Senate and serving in that body until 2001, when he was defeated by Democrat Bill Nelson.
He was followed by Rep. Porter Goss of Sanibel, who represented the 14th from 1993 to 2004, at which point he left when he was named head of the Central Intelligence Agency by President George W. Bush.
In 2005, the seat reverted back to the Macks when Connie Mack IV won election and served until 2013. Given its roots in the area and prestige in the national capital, the Mack dynasty was firmly entrenched and an overpowering political presence along this stretch of coast.
Behold, the 19th
As is done every ten years after a census, Florida’s congressional lines were redrawn after 2010 to reflect new demographic realities and Southwest Florida was no exception. The old 14th District was now re-numbered the 19th. Thanks to a Republican legislature, the Florida map was gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
This new 19th largely followed the boundaries of its predecessor, with two important exceptions: two potentially Democratic communities were broken off. Lehigh Acres in northern Lee County was split so that the majority of it would be absorbed by the Republican 17th District, and all of Golden Gate Estates was put in the 25th District, which had its center of gravity in heavily Republican, largely Cuban-American Hialeah near the east coast. (Previously, a part of Golden Gate was in the district.)
The resulting 19th District consisted of 696,776 people in 2010. Its two most densely populated communities were Cape Coral and Fort Myers.
As intended by Republican mapmakers, today it is a majority Republican district. According to the Florida Department of State Division of Elections in 2018, of 505,197 total registered voters, Republicans made up 45.5 percent of the electorate (229,736) and Democrats 25.8 percent (130,286), while 28 percent (141,906) were non-affiliated.
Despite the high number of non-party affiliated voters, the Cook Political Report, the Bible of congressional district data and analysis, rates the district as R+13, meaning that it’s 13 times as likely to vote Republican compared to the national average in the last two presidential election—in other words, it’s very Republican.
The majority of its population—75 percent—live in Lee County. Some 66.4 percent of the entire district is considered suburban, with 31 percent classified as rural and only a sliver considered urban.
It is an overwhelmingly white district: 83.5 percent, with very small numbers of minorities: 9.7 percent Hispanic, 5.5 percent African-American and 1.1 percent Asian-American. Its population is also older, with 27.7 percent over the age of 65. The median income is $53,205, slightly above the state average of $49,054. In 2010 it was 48.8 percent male and 51.2 percent female.
Two demographic groups define the district: The largest is Midwestern Republican retirees who moved down once Interstate 75 opened a straight route from upper Michigan and the Canadian border to Naples in the 1970s. The other consists of descendants of people who have lived in the area since its earliest days of white settlement.
The first election in the new 19th District occurred in 2012 and it brought to power a newcomer.
Trey Radel
Trey Radel, 2013
Trey Radel was a local broadcast journalist and publishing entrepreneur, whose libertarian opinions became increasingly conservative over time. Given his prominence, when Connie Mack IV decided not to run again, he called on Radel to take his place.
Radel ran, won the primary and then the general election on Nov. 6, 2012 with 62 percent of the vote. He went to Congress, where he describes a dizzying round of work, votes, appointments, parties, networking and fundraising.
Over time, his manic activity began to lapse into alcohol abuse, recklessness and excess. He recalls telling his wife and himself, “‘This is the first year. Let me get through this intense year of meeting people, networking and learning. Soon all of this will calm down.’ I was struggling with something I have struggled with most of my life—balance.”
On Oct. 29, 2013 Radel was arrested by agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation in Washington, DC’s DuPont Circle after purchasing cocaine. The arrest quickly became public and Radel faced widespread condemnation and a congressional ethics probe. It was clear that he would not run again—but would he step down in mid-term?
Curt Clawson
Curt Clawson, 2014
For a while Southwest Florida’s politicos held their collective breath while they waited to see what Radel would do. Finally, on Jan. 27, 2014, Radel announced he would resign. To replace him the district would have to conduct both a primary election and a general election.
For Democrats, there was only one candidate, April Freeman, a freelance movie and television producer from Cape Coral. But there was a scramble in Republican ranks; after all, the primary was viewed as tantamount to the general election.
Four candidates emerged: Curt Clawson, a former auto industry executive and Purdue University basketball star; Lizbeth Benequisto, a state senator; Paige Kreegel, a doctor and state legislator; and Michael Dreikorn, a former aerospace industry manager.
The candidates didn’t have much time; the primary was scheduled for April 22, only 85 days after Radel’s announcement. Television advertising was the key campaign tool. All espoused conservative values and portrayed themselves as the true conservatives in the race.
Clawson’s well-financed campaign played heavily on his basketball stardom, while Benaquisto’s television ads mocked his court prowess. The most bizarre moment in the campaign—and virtually the only campaign issue—came when the three Clawson rivals ganged up to question Clawson’s sale of a Utah property to a convicted sex offender eight years previously, with Clawson crashing his opponents’ press conference to discount the charges.
In the end Clawson won by 38.3 percent of the 70,302 votes cast in the primary. On June 24, 2014 he cruised to victory in the special general election with 67 percent of the vote compared to his next nearest rival, Freeman, who gained 29.3 percent. A Libertarian Party candidate, Ray Netherwood, took 3.7 percent. Those results were nearly duplicated in the regularly scheduled general election on Nov. 4 with Clawson moving down slightly (64.6 percent) and Freeman moving up (32.7 percent) while Netherwood lost ground (2.7 percent).
During his two years and seven months in office Clawson distinguished himself only once and not in a good way: During a hearing on July 24, 2014, he condescendingly addressed officials from the US Commerce and State departments as though they were officials from India when in fact they were American citizens who happened to be of Indian ethnicity. The incident went viral and became a laughingstock not only in the United States but India. It betrayed a lack of preparation, ignorance of the proceedings and what seemed like casual racism. Clawson dismissed it as “an air ball”—a missed throw in basketball.
Another, more positive moment came when he delivered the Tea Party response to President Barack Obama’s 2015 State of the Union address.
Legislatively, Clawson introduced a single piece of legislation but one that made it all the way into law. House Resolution 890 changed the boundaries of some units of the John H. Chafee Coastal Barrier Resources System in Collier County.
Rumors that Clawson was unhappy with his service in Congress began circulating shortly after he won the general election and gained with time. He was said to be frustrated by party discipline, by the constraints of the office and the slowness of legislating.
As time went on, Clawson’s disinterest and disillusionment began manifesting itself in more and longer absences. According to GovTrack.com, from June 2014 to Dec 2016, Clawson missed 115 of 1,534 roll call votes or 7.5 percent, which was much worse than his colleagues, who only missed a median of 2.4 percent of the time. His absences became much more pronounced in the last six months of his time in office.
On May 19, 2016 Clawson announced that he would not be running for another term in order to attend to family matters. “With the passing of my mom, it’s a good time to show support for my dad and be close to (him),” he told the News-Press.
The time had come for District 19 to get yet another representative.
Francis Rooney
Francis Rooney, 2017
As previously, in 2016 it was the Republican primary where the real contest occurred. Three newcomer candidates contended: Chauncey Goss, son of Porter Goss and a former budget expert in Congress and the executive branch; Dan Bongino, a conservative commentator; and billionaire businessman and former US ambassador to the Vatican Francs Rooney.
A construction magnate and major Republican donor, Rooney flooded the airwaves with ads touting his conservative values and business experience, while downplaying his diplomatic experience and academic credentials. On Aug. 30 the investment paid off when he won the primary with 52.7 percent of the vote and then cruised on to a general election victory with 65.9 percent of the vote against Democrat Robert Neeld, who took 34.1 percent, in keeping with general party registration numbers in the district.
In his first term in a Republican-dominated House of Representatives, Rooney was a reliable Trumper, voting with the president 95 percent of the time, calling for a purge of the Federal Bureau of Investigation to make it more Trump-friendly, proudly trying to impose congressional term limits through unconstitutional means and denying climate change.
In 2018 he ran again, doing barely any campaigning, making few public campaign appearances and avoiding any debates with his opponent, Democrat David Holden, a financial adviser. On Nov. 6 he won along party registration lines, with 62.3 percent of the vote against Holden’s 37.7 percent. In so doing he became the first member of Congress from the 19th Congressional District to serve more than one term.
This time, however, Rooney was serving in a Democratic House and he began accommodating himself to it—and getting things done. His voting record dropped to only 73 percent agreement with Trump, he managed to get a bill imposing a permanent offshore drilling moratorium passed by the chamber and he acknowledged climate change and encouraged other Republicans to do the same.
On Oct. 19 of this year he stated that he was open to hearing the evidence that might lead to Trump’s impeachment. That was more than his conservative constituency and the Republican leadership could bear and two days later he announced that he was retiring and would not run again.
Once more the 19th District was up for grabs—as it remains today.
Analysis: The swamp at home
All of the 19th’s members of Congress departed their seats for different personal reasons and under different circumstances. But there are commonalities that give insight into the district’s volatility.
Capitol Hill inexperience
First, none of the members had prior Capitol Hill experience. Because Southwest Florida is so far from the federal government in every respect—no major center of government operations, minimal federal presence, no military facilities—national government and governance is very far from the everyday experience of its residents. As a result, there’s little knowledge of working with or in government among the pool of Southwest Floridians who might realistically run for office.
Rooney came closest to government experience with his Republican Party donations and federal contracting background. He’d served in a State Department capacity. But even here, at the time of his election his knowledge of Congress and legislating was minimal. Indeed, he campaigned in 2016 on his lack of political credentials, emphasizing his business success as his greatest asset.
As a result of this inexperience and lack of knowledge—sometimes willful—all the representatives appear to have gone into their races with unrealistic expectations of what they could do once elected. They all also exploited the conservative credo of hatred of Washington, actually playing up their inexperience and ignorance, although they portrayed it as freshness and populist rebellion.
The final result was that when they arrived in the capital they had denigrated so much, they were naïve in their assumptions and unprepared in their knowledge. It was not a good combination.
A one-party mindset
The 19th Congressional District and, indeed, all of Lee and Collier counties constitute a one-party polity. All elected offices are held by Republicans and the entire governing mechanism is in Republican hands. In this sense Southwest Florida governance has more in common with other one-party polities like China (minus the secret police) than with multi-party polities where there’s a real contest of ideas and solutions.
In one-party polities electoral politics are intensely ideological and trend toward the extremes; i.e., since only one ideology is allowed to thrive, the question becomes: who is the truest believer?
In all their campaigns, Radel, Clawson and Rooney emphasized their adherence to “conservative values” and the depth and strength of their conservatism. As a result, each was an intense and orthodox ideologue when he went to Washington, having promised to personally implement a grand ideological agenda.
However, once in Washington all encountered several unavoidable realities:
One, they had no seniority—even the janitors had been there longer than they had. They might be big men in Southwest Florida, but they were very small and insignificant in the US Congress, no matter which party was in power. That made it difficult to enact their local agendas and keep their promises. This is actually common to freshman members.
Second, they were expected to toe the party line, not be free thinkers or innovators, especially not in their first terms. This was not what they signed up for when they ran. Rather, in the Capitol they were viewed by the Party leadership as obedient foot soldiers, expected to do and say what they were ordered to do and say by senior Republicans. In his second term, when Rooney deviated even slightly from the Party’s dictates by saying he had an open mind on impeachment, he was quickly quashed both at home and in Washington and he chose to retire.
Third, legislating is hard. It’s tough to get 435 members of the House to agree to your ideas. Given their unfamiliarity with the legislative process, this seems to have come as a shock to all the members. Radel discovered to his pain that trying to trim the federal deficit meant eliminating a program—sheep shearing training—that was precious to a fellow Republican from Texas. When he successfully eliminated the program Radel made an enemy and that enemy turned out to be the key member passing judgment on him when his ethics case came up for review. Rooney couldn’t make any headway among fellow Republicans on banning offshore oil drilling until he went to the prime target of Republican ire, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who agreed to put his bill before the full body, where it passed.
Fourth, the hunt for money is constant. This seems to surprise all new candidates and it doesn’t stop once they’re elected. This was certainly true for Radel, who writes about it extensively. Rooney could finance his own campaign but even he accepted outside donations, for example from Publix Super Markets, the XL Group and Collier Enterprises.
Fifth, despite its Republican Party majority, Southwest Florida is actually a difficult constituency to represent. Given their remoteness from the national government, everyday conservative Southwest Floridians have little to no tolerance of government’s subtleties, nuances or limitations or the need to compromise. As a result, they tend to be demanding, unyielding, frequently unrealistic and extremely ideological. It leaves representatives with very little legislative leeway to maneuver.
On top of all this there is another factor that only came into being in 2017: President Donald Trump. The more extreme elements of Southwest Florida’s Republican base are insisting on a blind, unthinking allegiance to Donald Trump and whatever he’s dictating at the moment, which can change to its polar opposite on a whim—even within the same sentence.
For Francis Rooney that kind of blind obedience was a step further than he could go.
“I’m definitely at variance with some of the people in the district who would probably follow Donald Trump off the Grand Canyon rim,” Rooney said in an interview.
It’s not only in Southwest Florida that there’s been Trumpist attrition.
As pointed out on Meet The Press on Nov. 10, current congressional Republicans are retiring in droves. When President Trump took office, there were 241 Republican members of Congress. As of Nov. 10, 100 Republicans had announced that they were leaving or retiring, a departure rate of 41 percent. While 36 were voted out of office, far more—50—retired or resigned and many just felt they couldn’t go where Trump was taking them.
So the volatility of the 19th District, while once unusual for a majority Republican district, is actually part of a national trend, one that might accelerate before 2020 and possibly after.
For Southwest Florida, the combination of outsized expectations, political naiveté and rigid demands for ideological purity creates an extremely difficult atmosphere for a congressional representative.
“The American public may demand purity and litmus tests from their elected representatives, but the reality is that they live in gray areas too,” writes Radel in Democrazy. “Some call it compromise; some call it concession; some call it weak; some call it strength. Some may disparagingly refer to it as moral ambiguity. I call it life.
“From specific votes to overall policy, very little is black-and-white,” he concludes.
That may be true in life but in Southwest Florida, politics are getting blacker and whiter, more extreme and more absolute.
“Democracy is ugly, it is tough, and sometimes it’s a little crazy,” acknowledges Radel. “But only through unity, both as a society and government, can we form a more perfect union. Congress is a lot like you and me. It is a reflection of our society, all the good, bad and questionable. When we look at Washington, we’re looking in a mirror.”
Right now, if we look at Southwest Florida as the 2020 election gets going, the ugliness, toughness and craziness seems poised to intensify. That makes for a toxic swamp—and that swamp is likely to keep devouring those who represent it in Congress for the foreseeable future.
(Editor’s Note: The Paradise Progressive tried to contact Mr. Clawson for the purposes of this article and to get more of his side of the story but was unable to do so. Nonetheless, if there’s any information for reaching him that anyone can share or if he would like to reach out, we’re still interested and this can be updated.)
Soon to come: A look at the Republican and Democratic congressional landscapes for the 2020 congressional election.
Rep. Greg Steube and Barry Berke.
People march in Naples, Fla., on Jan. 21, 2017 following the inauguration of President Donald Trump to protest his attitudes toward women. (Photo: author)
A crowd at the Collier County fairgrounds reacts to candidate Donald Trump’s denunciation of the media on Oct. 23, 2016. (Photo: the author)
Protesters at the second women’s march in Naples, on Jan. 20, 2018. (Photo: author)
Dec. 6, 2019 by David Silverberg
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces impeachment proceedings.
State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen being interviewed by NBC-2’s Dave Elias.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-23-Fla.) speaks at a protest against President Donald Trump during his rally in Sunrise. (Photo: Matias J. Ocner, Miami Herald, TNS)
“The people of Southwest Florida deserve leadership that truly serves them and a dialogue on issues that matter most. No Dem Left Behind’s support of candidates in districts like ours, ensures that more than a few powerful elite voices are heard,” Banyai announced in a press release.
David Holden addresses a town hall meeting on March 21, 2018. (Photo: Author)
Election Day in Collier County, Nov. 6, 2018. (Photo: David Silverberg)
A satirical map of Florida’s 19th Congressional District. (Illustration by author (c) 2019 by David Silverberg)
As is done every ten years after a census, Florida’s congressional lines were redrawn after 2010 to reflect new demographic realities and Southwest Florida was no exception. The old 14th District was now re-numbered the 19th. Thanks to a Republican legislature, the Florida map was gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
The Paradise Progressive 