Has MAGA fever broken? America’s joy and Republican rebellion in Collier County, Fla.

Kelly Mason, chair of the Collier County School Board, displays a flyer from the county Republican Executive Committee accusing schools of ‘indoctrination’ at the Aug. 21 meeting of the Board. (Image: CCPS)

Aug. 26, 2024 by David Silverberg

Has the Make America Great Again (MAGA) fever broken?

That certainly seems to be the case in Collier County, Fla., a very conservative, very Republican, extremely Trumpist corner of the Sunshine State.

It’s too soon to say that where Collier County goes, so goes the nation. But last Tuesday, Aug. 20, Republican voters’ weariness and disgust led them to defeat the candidates endorsed by a Collier County Republican Executive Committee (CCREC, referred to here as REC) that they regarded as having grown increasingly authoritarian.

It seems to show that even in this Trumpist stronghold, MAGA madness has reached its limits.

It also seems that the majority of Americans have had enough—enough of MAGAism and Donald Trumpism.

Both Collier County’s revolt, a statewide repudiation of candidates endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and a national wave of enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz (D) appear driven by the same things: weariness, disgust, outrage and now, a determination to do something about it. Americans have been living with Donald Trump’s “hatred, prejudice and rage” and they’re clearly ready to move on.

But to see it erupt among Collier County Republicans is truly a revelation.

The rebirth of joy

The national shift in public attitudes was best put by Walz, when he was introduced as Vice President Kamala Harris’ vice presidential running mate on Aug. 6 in Philadelphia.

“Thank you, Madam Vice President, for the trust you put in me,” he said. “But, maybe more so, thank you for bringing back the joy.”

Joy. That’s not a word that has been used at all in American politics since 2015. Clearly, it’s something Americans like and it’s what’s giving the Harris campaign the giddy momentum it’s enjoying in the race for the White House.

The four-year presidential election cycle not only marks political eras but emotional ones as well, with leading political personalities shaping the behavior and attitudes of the public.

That was certainly true in Florida. From 2016 to 2020 during Trump’s presidency, aspiring Republican politicians aped his attitudes and behavior both in campaigning and governing.

This was extremely apparent among Southwest Florida Republican candidates at that time. It could be seen in their dark conspiracy theories and delusional lies, their threats and insults toward their opponents and perceived enemies and also in their embrace of violent rhetoric and gunplay.

“There are individuals who fire this thing up and the biggest one of all, I think, is Donald Trump,” observed Francis Rooney, the former ambassador and congressman for Southwest Florida, at a panel to Reduce the Rancor, this year. “He exerts a magnetic influence over an awful lot of Republicans.”

The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in 2020, also had a profound impact on public attitudes. With Trump at first dismissing the danger and then fighting the experts and scientists who were trying to protect the public, his denigration of expertise, knowledge and competence leached down to the grassroots.

Trump’s attitudes really took root in Florida, his adopted state.

In 2018 Ron DeSantis, a former congressman, had his primary bid for the governorship supercharged by Trump’s endorsement. He won and as governor pursued Trumplike policies. It worked for him; in 2022 he was re-elected to the governorship with a decisive 20 point majority.

Starting in 2023, though, DeSantis tried to out-Trump Trump in his own bid for the White House. He launched a comprehensive “anti-woke” crusade in every aspect of Florida culture and society, hoping to ride it nationally to the presidency and “make America, Florida,” to use his own slogan. In this he was aided by a completely subservient Republican super-majority in the state legislature that raced to the rim of reason in devising ever more radical measures both to curry favor with him and pander to their most extreme constituents.

Ultimately, it didn’t work. Trump treated DeSantis as a traitor, belittled and insulted him and put an end to his presidential candidacy before it even got to the state primaries. But the legacy of DeSantis’ anti-woke war and Trump’s dominance in the state lingers on in its politics.

With Harris at the top of the national Democratic ticket and a pro-choice state constitutional amendment on the November ballot that seems to have mobilized the state’s pro-choice voters, Florida Democrats now sense a chance to turn Florida from seemingly overwhelmingly Republican to Democratic.

“Ron DeSantis has lost his culture war,” said Nichole “Nikki” Fried, the state Democratic chair after Tuesday’s primary results. “What we saw last night is that Floridians across the state are tired of the divisiveness. They are tired of the culture wars.”

“Floridians are tired of extremism, and we’re ready to bring back some sanity, integrity, decency and true public servants,” agreed Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democratic candidate for Senate.

Not everyone is sanguine about flipping the state. As political operative and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson put it in an Aug. 8 blog post: “I’m not saying Florida is in play. I’m not saying Florida is in play. I’m not saying Florida is in play. I’m not saying Florida is in play. I’m not saying Florida is in play. I’m not saying Florida is in play. But maybe you could see a sliver of a tiny edge of a glimmer on the horizon of Florida being in play, given the abortion rights and recreational weed ballot initiatives and a souring MAGA base.”

The case of Collier County, Fla.

This year Collier County Republicans rose in revolt against the official MAGA leadership of their Republican Party in the REC. It was a quiet revolt. There were no barricades in the streets. No one got shot. It happened in voting booths.

First, in the City of Naples on March 19, Republican voters defeated the REC-endorsed candidate for mayor, Ted Blankenship, who came in last in a three-way race.

Then, in the county at large, Republican voters defeated a whole slate of REC-endorsed candidates with the exception of one. With only a 25 percent turnout of the county electorate, it could hardly be said to be a wave. But make no mistake: it was a complete repudiation of MAGA directives and domination.

It needs to be emphasized just how remarkable this repudiation is because until now, Collier County has been dominated by its own mini-Trump and the dynamics of the electorate’s relationship to him reflects in microcosm the nation’s larger relationship to Donald Trump.

In Collier County, the mini-Trump is Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, a prominent farmer and grocer.

First gaining notoriety with his 2020 denunciation of George Floyd on Facebook, which brought accusations of racism, Oakes really rose to prominence in fighting public health measures and denouncing vaccines during the COVID pandemic. He gained fame among anti-vaccine and anti-mask activists, defied county health regulations and authorities and using his newly-opened store, Seed to Table, as a platform, began shaping local politics to his liking, which meant promoting the most extreme, Trumpist, MAGA candidates and policies.

The parallels between Oakes and Trump are truly striking. Both are businessmen and entrepreneurs. Indeed, it can be argued that Oakes at this point is more successful than Trump because his businesses, while suffering setbacks, are not mired in anything like the debt, litigation and criminal prosecution that face Trump’s.

Both men are loud, outspoken, mercurial, unpredictable, rebellious, litigious, bullying, insulting and petty. Both are extreme in their beliefs and language. Both have been accused of racism. Both have flirted with political violence. Both indulge in bizarre conspiracy theories. Both value fanatical loyalty over competence. Both cultivated an adoring personal following. Both are active politically, endorsing and boosting candidates who share their beliefs. Both verbally attacked scientific findings and public health officials during the COVID pandemic. Both denied the results of the 2020 election. Both were present in Washington, DC on Jan. 6, 2021. Both praised the rioters who attacked the Capitol. Both have been accused of lawbreaking: Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies; Oakes was issued citations for non-compliance with county regulations but never paid any penalties when Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) issued an executive order cancelling fines and pardoning violations of local COVID-related regulations.

And Oakes worships Trump. “I love our president and his family with every bit of my being!” Oakes posted on Facebook after a phone call with the then-President in December 2020. “I love all that he has given for our country and all that he stands for!”

Oakes was elected a state committeeman on the REC in 2020, which gave him an official Republican Party platform for his beliefs. He founded Citizens Awake Now Political Action Committee (CANPAC) to support candidates he favored.

It was effective. In the 2022 elections he won with a full house: he ousted a commissioner who voted for mask mandates against his wishes and two of his candidates won seats on the Collier County Board of Commissioners, giving it a MAGA majority. Three of his endorsed candidates won seats on the School Board of Collier County.

The victories paid off with governing successes at the county level: ordinances to exempt the county from federal law, to prevent future mask mandates or vaccine requirements (a duplication of state law), a resolution denouncing public health measures, a resolution opposing Amendment 4 to the state constitution guaranteeing reproductive rights, and termination of fluoridation of the county’s water.

While these measures had the willing support of Oakes’ MAGA followers, there was occasional defiance and that defiance was met with the full arsenal of litigation, denunciation, insult and rage.

When Kelly Mason (formerly Lichter), the Oakes-backed chair of the School Board, cast the deciding vote for a superintendent candidate against Oakes’ wishes, he denounced her as a “traitor.”

Then, this year, Oakes and his REC again backed a slate of candidates. These included a candidate for Board of Commissioners who would have ousted the incumbent Commissioner Burt Saunders (R-District 3), two school board candidates, and candidates for supervisor of elections and property appraiser. Oakes himself intended to run to keep his seat as Republican state committeeman but failed to file his paperwork on time and was disqualified.

It needs to be emphasized how unusual it is to have a county Republican Party endorse primary candidates. Most normal local parties—regardless of their partisan labels—are careful never to choose among competing local candidates; indeed, Party rules forbid it. But Collier County’s REC has ignored that.

What is more, Oakes and the REC employed a full arsenal of Trumpist weapons against what it perceived, not merely as fellow Republicans it opposed, but as full-blown enemies. These people, all Republicans of long standing and often very conservative, were blasted as Republicans in Name Only (RINOs) or—more terrible—as Democrats.

But even more galling to non-MAGA Republicans was the REC’s imperiousness in simply ordering Party members how to vote and employing what they regarded as lies and threats to get its way. In this it closely imitated Trump’s own wild and unfounded accusations against his perceived enemies. There was an actual threat of bringing criminal prosecution against the Collier County Citizens Value Political Action Committee (CCCVPAC), an independent Republican organization, for daring to defy the REC and endorse its own slate of candidates.

In assessing the results of the primary election for the county supervisor of elections race, Oakes himself posted on Facebook that, “The reason we lost EVERY single [Supervisor of Elections] race in the state of Florida is because our party will not unify.”

He concluded (as posted): “I pray that ALL of you learn from this and unite behind our party in the future should our father God even allows us to keep this Constitutional Republic in place after this election.”

(The Paradise Progressive reached out to Oakes for comment on this story but had not received a response as of posting time.)

School Board controversy

The most recent example of someone standing up against false REC accusations came the day after the election, last Wednesday, Aug. 21, at a meeting of the Collier County School Board.

Kelly Mason, the Board chair, complained that an REC-issued campaign flyer had accused the School Board of “indoctrinating” students.

The printed flyer from the REC included a quote from John Meo, the REC chair, accusing the School Board of indoctrinating students with believing the media, supporting President Joe Biden and advocating Communism and endorsing two opponents to incumbent School Board members.

The REC flyer (front and back) referenced by Kelly Mason. The two candidates listed both lost their races for the School Board in the Aug. 20 primary election. (Flyer: CCREC)

Mason challenged two members of the Board, Tim Moshier (District-5) and Jerry Rutherford (District-1), both of whom are members of the REC, to provide specific examples of student “indoctrination.”

“I think it’s an opportunity, with this indoctrination that’s going on that we need to be aware of, that the superintendent needs to be aware of, and we can address this head-on,” she said. “So, can you please provide the Board with the examples that this has been going on? And then after tonight I would like to be done with this conversation.”

Moshier fumblingly mentioned that there had been “a couple of little issues” and then an incident, which he could only vaguely recall, of a sticker in a classroom (there had been extensive controversy over “safe space” stickers in Florida classrooms in the past two years). A supposedly offensive image on the School Board website that he mentioned turned out to be a Planned Parenthood image entirely unrelated to Collier County that was used in local campaign propaganda.

Rutherford, for his part, wasn’t even capable of turning on the microphone on his desk. He did not provide any examples of “indoctrination.”

At the end of the discussion Mason said: “Since November ’22, we all got here at the same time, this [indoctrination] is not happening. So, I’m asking you tonight and Mr. Moshier, what examples [do we have] that this is going on because we need to address it—and it sounds like it’s not happening. Is that correct?”

Moshier replied: “I don’t know whether it is or not.”

The dialogue highlighted, not only the MAGA REC’s use of reckless and unsupported accusations and falsehoods but also the incompetence, incapability and inexperience of REC-endorsed candidates.

(The entire discussion can be seen in a 6-minute, 2-second video on YouTube.)

“Angry, inexperienced individuals”

The only criteria for a REC/Oakes endorsement has been fanatical MAGAism and personal loyalty and obedience to the REC; not qualifications, experience or education.

As Oakes himself put it at his Patriot Fest rally on March 19, 2022: “I don’t want to hear about what IQ someone has or what level of education someone has,” when it comes to candidate qualifications. “Common sense and some back is all we need right now.” As he also said before the Board of Commissioners on Feb. 13 in regard to science-based public health measures: “We don’t trust the white coats anymore.”

The result has been the election of glaringly unprepared and incapable people to county bodies. When this was going to be extended to technical positions affecting the operations of the county—the Supervisor of Elections and the Property Appraiser—even the most loyal Republicans had enough. Michael Lyster, endorsement chairman of CCCVPAC called the REC-endorsed candidates “angry, inexperienced individuals.”

This valuing of fanaticism over competence is a feature of Trumpism at the national level. It was an aspect of Trump’s term as president and it is an aspect of Project 2025, which is building a database of obedient loyalists to take on the nation’s most sensitive positions regardless of their qualifications, preparation or expertise—or lack thereof.

A tropical tremor

As this is written, there are 71 days to Election Day, Nov. 5. That’s an eternity in politics and a lot can happen that could change the entire political equation.

But what can be said with some certainty is that at the moment, Harris and Walz seem to be riding a wave of joy and enthusiasm that looks like it will carry them to the nation’s highest offices.

What’s also clear is that they’ve broken through the dark menace of what Trump in his 2017 inaugural address called “American carnage.” Americans are tired of that carnage and being threatened, lied to and intimidated.

And the depth of that weariness can be seen in Collier County where Republicans were fed up with being bullied and battered by their own leadership, which seemed to have ridden off the rails of normal political dialogue and entered a delusional world of dictates, threats and insults.

Collier County is a little place. What happens here usually stays here.

But sometimes, just sometimes, political tremors very far down in small, obscure crevices can join with other tremors and rise high enough to cause earthquakes— and those earthquakes can change everything at the surface.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg


Kelly Mason, fourth from left, challenges Jerry Rutherford (second from left) at the Aug. 21 School
Board meeting. (Image: CCPS)

Lee County commissioners skip anti-Amendment 4 resolution vote; may be introduced in future

The audience at the Lee County Board of Commissioners meeting on Aug. 20, during a ceremony honoring county employees. (Image: LCBC)

Aug. 22, 2024 by David Silverberg with reporting by Dan Becker

The Lee County Board of Commissioners chose not to take any action on a proposed resolution opposing Amendment 4 at its meeting on Tuesday, Aug. 20.

Amendment 4 is a ballot initiative that would amend the Florida state Constitution to prevent government interference on abortion decisions. It is up for a vote in the general election on Nov. 5.

At its previous Aug. 6 meeting, Board Chair Mike Greenwell (R-District 5) instructed county staff to study and research neighboring Collier County’s anti-Amendment 4 resolution and return with their findings. A report was not made at this meeting.

Although the resolution was not considered, activists on both sides of the debate presented arguments to commissioners. About 20 people testified for a resolution and 10 testified against it.

Arguments for passage of a resolution largely ran along religious lines. One example was made by Lee County resident Aaron Gardner.

“I stand again before you this morning exhorting you to speak against this vague and deceitful George Soros-funded Marxist amendment by voting in favor of the proposed resolution,” he said.

Aaron Gardner (Image: LCBC)

Kathy Mayo, president of the local chapter of the National Organization for Women, spoke out against passing a resolution.

Recounting that as she entered the building she had been approached by a man who told her she was going to Hell because of her beliefs, Mayo warned the commissioners against getting involved in such an emotional issue.

Kathy Mayo (Image: LCBC)

“Many people want you to help influence this citizen-initiated ballot issue by passing a resolution to oppose Amendment 4,” she told the commissioners. “This is not your role. It may be tempting to step into the process but the Commission should neither endorse nor participate in any effort that undermines the democratic process. Your role is important and today is a great example; we saw the range of responsibilities of agencies that you have responsibility for funding for making sure that those services work but making a decision about abortion is not one of your roles. Please do not jump into this issue and do not contribute to politicizing a citizen-initiated ballot.”

Lisa Nagy, a former registered nurse and sexual assault nurse examiner, said she had seen a great deal of misinformation disseminated about Amendment 4.

Lisa Nagy (Image: LCBC)

“I’ve heard a lot about trafficking is going to increase and rapists are going to flock to our state,” she said. “This amendment does nothing [and] has nothing to do with anything about that. We just had abortion legal in this state a couple of years ago, up to 24 weeks, [and] we didn’t have a rapists flocking to our state two years ago.”

Passing an anti-Amendment 4 resolution would just spread more disinformation, she argued, saying “this just should be a vote by the people. This is an amendment by the people, for the people, for us to vote on and I ask you not to make a resolution, not to weigh in and please do not spread any more misinformation.”

A resolution may be introduced and considered at a future Board meeting. Meetings are scheduled for the first and third Tuesdays of each month: Sept. 3 and 17; Oct. 1 and 15; and a meeting is scheduled for Election Day, Nov. 5.

The full 2-hour, 30-minute recording of the Aug. 20 meeting can be seen on YouTube. Discussion of the anti-Amendment 4 resolution begins at mark 1:30.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

The flag of Lee County, Fla.

In Lee County, Fla., Tommy Doyle survives scandal, keeps seat; and other primary election results—Updated

Lee County Supervisor of Elections Tommy Doyle. (Image: LCSoE)

Aug. 21, 2024 by David Silverberg

Updated Aug. 23 with judicial results.

Despite a last-minute breaking scandal, Lee County Supervisor of Elections Tommy Doyle kept his seat in yesterday’s Republican primary, winning by 80.4 percent (82,134 votes) over his opponent, Michael Peters who garnered 19.6 percent (10,619 votes).

Doyle was accused of having a romantic affair with an employee five years ago, which came to light last Thursday, Aug. 15, when early and mail-in voting was already under way. The employee, although making a complaint to the Equal Opportunity Employment Commission had rescinded the complaint, saying the affair was consensual.

In a statement after the affair was reported by the Miami Independent newssite, Doyle stated:

“I am very embarrassed by a terrible decision I made five years ago which has hurt my wife deeply. This was the worst decision of my life and something I greatly regret. My wife and I working through this together and through the grace of God, we are healing as a family.

“I apologize to the wonderful staff within the Supervisor’s of Elections office and my constituents of Lee County, I acted outside my moral integrity. This was the worst decision of my life. I take full responsibility for my behavior and I can only ask for your forgiveness. I want to assure voters that this will not affect the Supervisor Office’s ability to conduct secure and accurate elections in our upcoming primary and general election.”

Regardless of the scandal, Lee County voters approved Doyle for a third term as Supervisor of Elections. His opponent, Peters, had expressed suspicion of election procedures and results and promised on his website to “make elections great again.”

Other results

Turnout in Lee County came to 23 percent of the electorate, according to statistics issued by the Lee County Elections office.

Sen. Rick Scott, the sitting Republican US senator, gained the nomination of his Lee County party members with a decisive 84.7 percent of the vote. In the Democratic primary, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell won the approval of 73.9 percent of county Democrats to challenge Scott in the general election in November.

In the primary for the Democratic nomination in Congressional District 17, Manny Lopez barely edged out Matthew Montavon by a mere 57 votes, or 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. Lopez will now challenge incumbent Rep. Greg Steube in the general election.

In the Republican race for District 3 in the Board of County Commissioners, David Mulicka defeated Matthew Thornton by 62.3 percent to 35.7 percent.

In the Republican race for District 5 in the Board of County Commissioners, Mike Greenwell defeated Amanda Cochran by 55.3 percent to 44.7 percent.

In the race for Circuit Judge of the 20th Judicial Circuit Group 6, challenger Tracy Redd eased past incumbent Erik Leontiev by 55.6 percent to 44.4 percent in Lee County. Ultimately, Leontiev lost to Tracey Redd in the five-county 20th Judicial Circuit, Group 6, getting 48 percent of the vote to Redd’s 52 percent.

In the race for Circuit Judge of the 20th Circuit Group 28, incumbent Elizabeth Krier beat challenger Michael Colombo by 2,328 votes or 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent and winning the five-county circuit race by 53.4 percent of the vote.

In School Board races, Melisa Giovannelli defeated Carol Frantz in District 2, 56.7 percent to 43.3 percent.

In District 3, Bill Ribble barely squeaked past Kaitlyn Schoeffel by 187 votes, 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent.

In District 7, Vanessa Chaviano won with 47.1 percent of the vote, with Sheridan Chester getting 31.4 percent and Joshua Molandes, 21.5 percent.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

MAGA candidates routed in Collier County primary election—Updated

Campaign workers outside the Collier County Public Library headquarters in Naples today. All the candidates named on the signs lost their races. (Photo: Author)

Aug. 21, 2024 by David Silverberg

Updated 5:50 pm with Johnny Fratto information. Updated Aug. 23 with judicial results.

In a nearly complete rout, Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republican candidates endorsed by the Collier County Republican Executive Committee (CCREC, referred to here as the REC) were defeated in yesterday’s primary election.

With all 67 precincts reporting, results posted by the Collier County Supervisor of Elections office showed candidates endorsed by the REC and local farmer and grocer Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III going down to defeat, a stunning reversal of 2022’s results.

Overall voter turnout was 24.9 percent with only 64,465 ballots cast out of a pool of 258,528 eligible voters.

Because this was a closed primary and the county is overwhelmingly Republican, the local Republican primaries effectively counted as the election.

In major local races Melissa Blazier, current county Supervisor of Elections, kept her seat, winning with 48.5 percent of the vote, or 20,726 votes. David Schaffel, who was backed by the REC and Oakes, followed with 34.8 percent, or 14,881 votes and Tim Geurrette, a retired law enforcement officer, came in third with 16.8 percent or 7,165 votes.

As of 11:00 pm Vickie Downs led the race to keep her seat as Property Appraiser by a mere 389 votes, or 43.7 percent over her nearest rival, Jim Molenaar, with 42.7 percent. Molenaar was backed by the REC and Oakes.

In the race for Republican State Committeeman, Douglas Rankin, who was ousted by Oakes in 2020, made a comeback, winning back his position with 56.3 percent of the vote over his rival Frank Schwerin, with 43.7 percent. Oakes had intended to run for the seat but was disqualified when he failed to file his paperwork on time.

In Collier County District 3, Burt Saunders, the incumbent commissioner who had been targeted for ouster by MAGA Republicans, defeated three challengers, winning by 47.1 percent. His nearest rival, Frank Roberts gained only 29.3 percent.

Stephanie Lucarelli, the School Board member for District 2, won her race by 53.9 percent over challenger Pam Cunningham, with 46.1 percent.

Erick Carter, the other incumbent School Board member, also kept his seat by 56 percent over Tom Henning’s 44 percent.

In a race for Republican State Committeewoman, the Oakes-backed candidate Kristina Heuser was a rare MAGA success, winning with 52.6 percent of the vote over longtime conservative activist JoAnn DeBartolo with 47.4 percent.

In the hotly contested and bitter Republican battle for state House District 81, covering southern coastal Collier County, Yvette Benarroch edged out retired businessman and Marco Island councilman Greg Folley by 56.3 percent to 43.7 percent.

In the major statewide race, Sen. Rick Scott retained his party’s nomination over two challengers with a whopping 88.8 percent of Republican votes.

However, in the Democratic nominating race for US Senate, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell also won her race with an overwhelming 77.9 percent of the vote.

Mucarsel-Powell and Scott will face off in November.

In the race for the congressional District 26 Republican nomination, incumbent Republican Rep. Mario Diaz Balart maintained his dominance, winning with 73.2 percent of the vote. Johnny Fratto, who was endorsed by Oakes, came in a distant second at 16.5 percent.

Incumbent judge Elizabeth Krier in the 20th Judicial Circuit, Group 28 kept her seat with 53.4 percent of the vote. Judge Erik Leontiev, although winning in Collier County, ultimately lost to Tracey Redd in the five-county 20th Judicial Circuit, Group 6, getting 48 percent of the vote to Redd’s 52 percent.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

ALERT! Anti-choice activists urge Lee County resolution against Amendment 4

The Lee County Board of Commissioners meeting on Aug. 6, 2024. (Image: LCBC)

Aug. 14 by David Silverberg

Anti-choice activists in Lee County, Fla., are urging county commissioners to pass a resolution opposing Amendment 4 in imitation of neighboring Collier County.

Amendment 4 would amend the Florida constitution to protect a woman’s right to an abortion. It is on the general election ballot, where it must pass with a 60 percent or more approval vote to become law.

The activists, who spoke at the Aug. 6 Lee County Board of Commissioners meeting, want the commissioners to pass the same resolution that Collier County commissioners approved on June 11. (For full coverage of the Collier County resolution and vote see, “Collier County’s anti-choice resolution: What does it mean and will it make any difference?”).

Board Chair Mike Greenwell (R-District 5) instructed county staff to study and research the Collier resolution and return with their findings for the Board to consider at a later, unspecified, date.

Commissioner Mike Greenwell at the Aug.6 meeting. (Image: LCBC)

At the meeting over 20 public speakers called for passing an anti-Amendment 4 resolution, most citing religious reasons. Some called it “wicked,” “immoral,” “abhorrent” and “deceptive.”

Tara Jenner, vice chair of the Lee County Republican Party, called Amendment 4 “extreme and very poorly drafted” and reminded the commissioners that the Republican Party of Florida had taken a position against the amendment.

Tara Jenner at the Aug. 6 meeting. (Image: LCBC)

Tom Ascol, senior pastor at Grace Baptist Church in Cape Coral, said “it grieves me to see what leftists are doing to try to come in to steer our state into their horrific agenda.” He said that Amendment 4 was “something that is attempting to be done to Florida by people who don’t care about our way of life.”

Robert Roper, pastor of the First Baptist Church of Alva, after noting that the Board had passed a resolution recognizing that gopher tortoises were listed as a threatened species, urged: “Move this resolution off the table and on to the rolls of the other resolutions you passed, and be the voice of the unborn in Lee county and the state of Florida. It’s at least as important as a gopher turtle.”

There were no pro-Amendment 4 voices speaking at the meeting.

However, Dan Becker, a Lee County resident, denounced the potential resolution in a letter to the editor that ran in the Naples Daily News on Aug. 9, stating: “Our right to vote without government interference is once again under attack. Through intimidation and misinformation a fringe group of extremists are attempting to force the Lee County Board of Commissioners to pass a proclamation that opposes State Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion—Amendment 4.” He added that commissioners’ duties “do not include support or decrying voter-initiated ballot measures. We will not go back!”

The Paradise Progressive asked all five commissioners if they planned on introducing a resolution at the Aug. 20 meeting. No response had been received from any of them as of post time.

An official video of the entire 3-hour, 20-minute meeting with a transcript, posted by the Board, can be seen on YouTube. Discussion of the resolution begins at 2:00 hours into the video.

Lee County residents can express an opinion on this matter by writing or calling their commissioners. As of this writing the agenda for the meeting had not yet been posted. Residents who sign up in person the day of the meeting can speak before the Board for 3 minutes. The Commission meeting on Aug. 20 is scheduled to begin at 9:30 a.m. at the Old Lee County Courthouse, 2120 Main St., downtown Fort Myers, Fla.

To contact Lee County commissioners:

All commissioners can be contacted by mail at P.O. Box 398, Fort Myers, FL 33902-0398

Commissioner Kevin Ruane, District 1

Commissioner Cecil Pendergrass, District 2

Commissioner Ray Sandelli, District 3

Commissioner Brian Hamman, District 4

Commissioner Mike Greenwell, District 5

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

The flag of Lee County, Fla.

Election endorsements: Lee County and Fort Myers, Fla.

The flag of Lee County, Fla.

Aug. 8, 2024

One of the media’s most important roles in American democracy is evaluating candidates for public office and presenting the facts to voters.

But beyond just the facts, the media should play a clearly defined role in endorsing those candidates judged the most qualified.

An endorsement is not a command; it is a suggestion to voters. But it should be an informed suggestion based on research and experience.

Regrettably, in Southwest Florida some of the most established media platforms no longer endorse. They shy away from or ignore this vital function.

But nature abhors a vacuum. In communities large and small, citizen journalists have stepped in to provide the news and insight for voters to make informed, considered decisions on whom they want to govern and represent them.

It is in that spirit that The Paradise Progressive is making these endorsements.

While The Paradise Progressive concentrates most of its local coverage on Collier County, it also covers the actions of members of Congress from the 17th and 19th congressional districts, both of which include Lee County.

Accordingly, what follow are endorsements for contested primary elections in Lee County and Fort Myers.

Early primary voting begins this Saturday, Aug. 10 and goes one week until Aug. 17. Early voting locations in Lee County can be found here.

Election Day is Aug. 20.  

US Senate

Republican nominee for US Senator

There is no endorsement for a Republican nominee. The incumbent, Sen. Rick Scott, has repeatedly demonstrated egregious incompetence in ways that harmed the state and people he represents. He has also called for sunsetting the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs on which many Southwest Floridians depend.

(For more on Scott’s record, see: “Rick Scott meets the Peter Principle” and “Rick Scott, already in a hole, digs deeper.”)

Democratic nominee for US Senator

  • Endorsement: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is a committed, articulate, energetic activist who has served in the US House of Representatives. She can be expected to do an outstanding job representing Florida and all its citizens in the US Senate.

(For a profile of Mucarsel-Powell, see: “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, ready for the Senate and on a roll.”)

US House of Representatives

Democratic nominee for Congressional District 17

  • Endorsement: Matthew Montavan

It’s tough to make an endorsement when there are two committed candidates who both mean well, seek to serve the public and share many of the same positions on the issues.

However, Matthew Montavan’s academic credentials, his government experience, his longstanding promotion of good governance, his community commitment, his Peace Corps service and his long career with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, mark him as an outstanding candidate.

He knows government and how it functions. There will be no learning curve when he takes the oath of office.

Montavan will make an excellent representative for the people of the 17th District.

Lee County Supervisor of Elections

  • Endorsement: Tommy Doyle

Tommy Doyle has been serving as Lee County Supervisor of Elections since 2016. Since then election results have been unchallenged and the office has not faced allegations of impropriety, inaccuracy or illegality. Doyle should be re-elected to continue to do his job and Lee County voters will be able to have confidence in the reported results of their elections.

In contrast, as in Collier County, Doyle’s opponent is driven by unfounded suspicion and ideological motivations. Michael Peters calls for a return to hand-counted ballots, the end of computerized ballot tabulating systems and wants to “make elections great again”—whatever that means.

The judges (on all ballots)

Endorsements:

  • Erik Leontiev (20th Judicial Circuit, Group 6)
  • Elizabeth Krier (20th Judicial Circuit, Group 28)

It’s very difficult to render judgments on judges who are supposed to make objective, unbiased decisions based on the law on a case-by-case basis.

In this instance both sitting judges have records unblemished by accusations of ethical lapses or improper behavior. Nothing in their records indicates any unfitness for office or reasons for discontinuation of their service.

Krier briefly came into political prominence in Southwest Florida from 2020 to 2022 when she adjudicated a lawsuit brought by congressional candidate Casey Askar against Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.). Askar charged that Donalds had defamed him but Krier ruled that he hadn’t done so with malice and Askar lost the case. Her ruling appeared sound and reasonable. (The full story and coverage of the ruling can be read at “The Donalds Dossier: Putin’s pal; an address mess; and a legal laurel—Updated.”)

Lee County School Board, District 3

  • Endorsement: Kaitlyn Schoeffel

Lee County will benefit from having Kaitlyn Schoeffel of Estero on its School Board. She wants to improve community communication with the school system and upgrade its use of technology.  She’s concerned with school safety and having a “supportive and inclusive” school culture. She also promises to advocate for better pay, resources and support for teachers and staff.

Schoeffel has worked as a substitute teacher and dance instructor and has two children in the public school system. On her own initiative she created Operation Empowerment, an initiative to promote the arts to children—something that has taken on new importance with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ complete veto of arts funding in Florida.

These experiences and her commitment to improving Lee County public schools merit her election.

Fort Myers City Council Ward 2

  • Endorsement: Jacquelyn McMiller

Fort Myers is fortunate to have three committed and community-minded candidates seeking to serve on the city council in Ward 2.

However, Jacquelyn stands out for her community activism, her local focus and her knowledge of land use and housing issues. She’s also familiar with risk management, redevelopment and construction projects, all of critical interest to the City of Fort Myers.

Fort Myers City Council Ward 4

  • Endorsement: Cindy Banyai

Cindy Banyai is a committed political activist who wants “to create a Fort Myers where the sun shines on everyone!” as she puts it on her website.

Banyai has long been politically active in Southwest Florida, running twice for Congress in the 19th Congressional District. Having worked on projects in the City of Fort Myers she has seen how calls for change get pigeonholed and ignored, while public dollars go into private pockets.

“I’m here to say that corruption is not ‘just the way it is’ and I’m here to put a stop to it,” she vows.

Her election will be to the benefit of Fort Myers and all the people who call it home.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

Election endorsements: Winning the war for competence in Collier County, Fla.

The flag of Collier County, Fla.

Aug. 7, 2024

A war on competence has been waged in the United States for the past eight years and nowhere has it been pursued with more intensity than in Collier County, Fla.

In this year’s primary election, the citizens of Collier County will decide what they value more: expertise, experience, and integrity or anger, fury and fanaticism.

Early voting begins this Saturday, Aug. 10 and runs one week until next Saturday, Aug. 17. It culminates on Election Day, Aug. 20. A full list of early polling places can be seen here.

The issue of ability and fitness for office is one that transcends party or political philosophy. Do people want their local government and school board run well or badly? Do they value people who have dedicated their lives to public service or people who have never before handled public affairs?

The dividing line in making these endorsements is not political party or ideology; rather, it is competence versus non-competence, or uncertain competence or, in the case of at least one current officeholder, proven incompetence.

That is not to say there aren’t larger issues at stake as well: Do voters want to maintain the Bill of Rights’ wall of separation between church and state in their government and schools or allow religious indoctrination and dogma to reign? Do they want public health decisions made on the basis of science and research or suspicion and ignorance? Do they want to move forward in time or retreat into an imagined past?

Since its launch in 2018, The Paradise Progressive has argued that endorsing candidates is the duty of any publication or media outlet that regularly and responsibly covers elections and those who seek office.

That especially holds true today.

And so, in keeping with that principle, this article presents endorsements for candidates on the ballot on Aug. 20 and the reasoning behind them.

What is unique is that these endorsements cover both the Republican and Democratic primaries, since some offices will be determined in the closed primaries of their respective parties (and since readers are members of both parties).

This article does not endorse in all primary races but does provide some notes and observations on the candidates in the races where it does not take a position.

As its name implies, The Paradise Progressive approaches its coverage from a particular political perspective. For thorough, unbiased and neutral information about all these races and candidates, see Sparker’s Soapbox, whose author, Sandy Parker, does an outstanding job providing a comprehensive and objective overview.

These endorsements cover Collier County. A subsequent article will cover endorsements in Lee County. They are in the order that they appear on ballots.

US Senate

Republican nominee for US Senator

There is no endorsement for a Republican nominee. The incumbent, Sen. Rick Scott, has repeatedly demonstrated egregious incompetence in ways that harmed the state and people he represents. He has also called for sunsetting the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs on which many Southwest Floridians depend.

(For more on Scott’s record, see: “Rick Scott meets the Peter Principle” and “Rick Scott, already in a hole, digs deeper.”)

Democratic nominee for US Senator

  • Endorsement: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is a committed, articulate, energetic activist who has served in the US House of Representatives. She can be expected to do an outstanding job representing Florida and all its citizens in the US Senate.

(For a profile of Mucarsel-Powell, see: “Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, ready for the Senate and on a roll.”)

Collier County

Property appraiser

  • Endorsement: Vickie Downs

Downs is the incumbent Property Appraiser and has served in that office in one capacity or another since 1994. She has demonstrated competence and a steady hand, making incremental improvements to the office that will continue if re-elected.

(For additional coverage of another candidate, Jim Molenaar, see the article: “From education to enrichment: Sweetheart deals, feeding frenzies and Florida’s war on learning.”)

Supervisor of Elections

  • Endorsement: Melissa Blazier

Blazier has the experience, knowledge and—most of all—integrity to continue to conduct clean, honest and accurately counted elections in Collier County.

This position has turned into one of the most hotly contested local races. It has been extensively covered in these pages, most notably and comprehensively in “This is what integrity looks like: Melissa Blazier for Supervisor of Elections.” (All articles related to Melissa Blazier can be seen here.)

The judges (on all ballots)

Endorsements:

  • Erik Leontiev (20th Judicial Circuit, Group 6)
  • Elizabeth Krier (20th Judicial Circuit, Group 28)

It’s very difficult to render judgments on judges who are supposed to make objective, unbiased decisions based on the law on a case-by-case basis.

In this instance both sitting judges have records unblemished by accusations of ethical lapses or improper behavior. Nothing in their records indicates any unfitness for office or reasons for discontinuation of their service.

Krier briefly came into political prominence in Southwest Florida from 2020 to 2022 when she adjudicated a lawsuit brought by congressional candidate Casey Askar against Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.). Askar charged that Donalds had defamed him but Krier ruled that he hadn’t done so with malice and Askar lost the case. Her ruling appeared sound and reasonable. (The full story and coverage of the ruling can be read at “The Donalds Dossier: Putin’s pal; an address mess; and a legal laurel—Updated.”)

School Board (non-partisan)

Endorsements:

  • Stephanie Lucarelli (District 2)
  • Erick Carter (District 4)

Both of these incumbent candidates have demonstrated expertise, care and commitment to the education of Collier County students. Both have served responsibly and conscientiously and attended to the nuts and bolts of the county schools. Both are rational, reasonable and sensible. Their service is informed with the experience of office and their own backgrounds.

Lucarelli was a professional teacher before moving to Naples in 2002. She taught in Collier County schools as a guest teacher and volunteered in a variety of capacities. She has a long and proven interest in education.

Erick Carter’s interest in education traces back to his experience as a ballroom dance instructor and training at Lorenzo Walker Technical College.

Their opponents are typical of an uninformed, ideologically-driven opposition threatening sensible, secular Florida public education that prioritizes the best interests of Collier County students.

Notes on other races (without endorsements)

US House District 26

Incumbent Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is running for his 12th term in this district, which stretches from Hialeah and Doral in Miami-Dade County in the east to inland Collier County, roughly along I-75 in the west and includes the towns of Immokalee and Ave Maria.

Diaz-Balart has been in office so long he is the longest-serving member of all of Florida’s congressional representatives. He was first elected to the US House in 2002. He has risen to chair the powerful Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs, which oversees all US foreign aid programs.

He is running against opponents who have no prior legislative or political experience.

Florida House District 81

Florida House District 81 runs along the coast in Collier County from Immokalee Road in Naples to Goodland south of Marco Island. Its western boundary is I-75, Collier Blvd., and Rt. 41.

The candidates are Yvette Benarroch and Greg Folley.

Benarroch is co-owner of a landscaping company with her husband. She’s a US Air Force veteran. She heads the Collier County chapter of Moms for Liberty. She claims to have previously worked on political campaigns for Ron DeSantis and Byron Donalds.

Greg Folley, a retired corporate executive and lawyer, has served on the Marco Island City Council since 2020, worked on the White House staff under President Ronald Reagan and has served on numerous corporate and charitable boards. Folley has far more management and government experience than Benarroch.

Collier County Republican State Committeeman

Douglas Rankin is running for State Committeeman. He’s a longstanding, traditional Republican who was very active in the county Party and served in the committeeman position from 2008 to 2020. In 2020 he was ousted as State Committeeman by Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, who was riding high on his defiance of COVID-19 precautions and county public health measures.

Rankin is running against Frank Schwerin, a retired doctor. Schwerin is endorsed by Oakes.

Collier County Republican State Committeewoman

JoAnn DeBartolo, the incumbent, is an actively pro-Trump, long-time conservative Republican activist.

Her opponent, Kristina Heuser, a lawyer, twice drafted anti-federal nullification ordinances of dubious legality, one of which passed the Collier County Board of Commissioners, and which may ultimately harm the county in unexpected ways. She was personally endorsed by Oakes.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

Project 2025 remake of FEMA would hit communities hard after disasters

Southwest Florida would face fiscal blow after nature’s damage

A victim of Hurricane Ian in Venice, Fla., hugs a federal officer in gratitude for his help as part of the national response after the storm in 2022. (Photo: CBP/ Glenn Fawcett)

Aug. 1, 2024 by David Silverberg

Updated Aug. 2.

While the head of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 has departed, the ideas his Project proposes for completely remaking the federal government remain and could be implemented if Donald Trump is elected president a second time.

These changes would directly affect Southwest Florida in the event of a disaster like a hurricane—and one may be on the way as this is written. Today, Aug. 1, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) declared a state of emergency in 54 of Florida’s 67 counties in anticipation of a storm coming from the Caribbean Sea.

Among Project 2025’s proposals are changes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which would impose new and heavily burdensome costs on local governments and reduce federal support.

Changes at Project 2025

Project 2025 is a sweeping, 887-page tome of recommendations for presidential and legislative changes to be made under a conservative president, in this case, upon the election of Donald Trump. It is authored by the conservative, Washington, DC-based Heritage Foundation think-tank. The proposals were accompanied by a drive that included recruitment of personnel, training for those people and a 180-day Playbook for immediate implementation should there be a change of administrations.

As people become familiar with its contents, it is increasingly a target for Democrats and critics alarmed by its radical proposals.

Although Trump campaign operatives repeatedly called on the Heritage Foundation to stop promoting Project 2025 as part of the campaign, the Heritage Foundation did not do so, leading to a rift between the camps.

On Tuesday, July 30, Paul Dans, head of Project 2025 stepped down from his position under pressure from Trump and his campaign.

“Friends and patriots: to every thing there is a season. We completed what we set out to do, which was to create a unified conservative vision, bringing together over 110 leading organizations united behind the cause of deconstructing the administrative state,” Dans wrote in an email to Heritage and Project 2025 staff.

“This tool was built for any administration dedicated to conservative ideals to utilize. The work of the project was due to wrap with the nominating conventions of the political parties. Our work is presently winding down, and I planned later in August to leave Heritage. Electoral season is upon us, and I want to direct all my efforts to winning bigly,” Dans wrote.

Despite Dans’ departure, the work of Project 2025 is expected to continue, as confirmed by Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation.

“Project 2025 will continue our efforts to build a personnel apparatus for policymakers of all levels—federal, state, and local,” Roberts stated in an X posting.

While Trump has denied and dismissed Project 2025, much of it was written by former officials in his administration and it is endorsed by Sen. James David “JD” Vance (R-Ohio), his vice presidential running mate. Vance wrote the foreword to an upcoming book written by Roberts based on Project 2025.

Moreover, if Trump is elected, his army of loyalists, enablers and aspirants will no doubt use Project 2025 as their policy roadmap regardless of what he says—and therein lies its potential impact on Southwest Florida.

Targeting FEMA

If changes proposed by Project 2025 are made to FEMA, Southwest Florida cities and towns would incur a far heavier financial burden for disaster preparedness, response and recovery than at present.

The proposals would especially impact this region vulnerable to hurricanes, algal blooms, wildfires and other natural disasters. This is especially relevant in the midst of what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Under Project 2025’s proposals, Southwest Florida communities—and all American communities—would have to bear a far larger proportion of the expense of a disaster or meet deductibles, as in the private insurance market.

Lee County communities just went through the trauma and uncertainty of retaining a discount for flood insurance, which if lost would have been extremely costly to local homeowners. The Project 2025 proposals would be similarly costly to local governments, which would have to pass on the costs to residents in new taxes to provide the funding for recovery.

A quick primer on the current system

To fully understand the impact and nature of Project 2025’s proposals, it helps to be familiar with the existing FEMA system of disaster response and support for individuals and communities.

The current FEMA system is fundamentally based on the belief that the American government has a duty to assist its citizens and communities when disasters occur that are beyond their immediate ability to handle. While it regards this as an integral role for the federal government, it relies on states and localities to first respond to the degree they can before relying on federal help.

The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act is the law that defines and determines what officially constitutes a disaster. It also sets out the authorities and responsibilities of different federal agencies in responding to disasters.

The law was first passed by Congress as the Disaster Relief Act of 1974 and then substantially amended by then-Sen. Robert Stafford of Vermont in 1988. It has been amended further as definitions were refined and different forms of disaster added.

(Of relevance to Southwest Florida has been the effort, started under then-Rep. Francis Rooney in June 2019, to include harmful algal blooms as officially designated disasters. Rooney’s successor, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), although reintroducing the bill as the Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act (HR 1008), has not pursued it with any effort during his time in office.)

When a disaster strikes, state and local officials determine if they need federal assistance. If they do, they put in a request for aid and the President (actually, FEMA and the Office of the President) approves the request and makes a disaster or emergency declaration. A major disaster declaration allows a wide variety of assistance, while an emergency declaration provides federal supplements for local efforts, for example to stave off a worse disaster or protect property and public health.

There are three types of federal assistance:

Individual Assistance helps individual survivors with immediate needs like shelter and repairs.

Public Assistance is a government-to-government program. It provides federal grants to state, local, tribal and territorial governments. It helps with a wide variety of activities like restoring public infrastructure and providing life-saving emergency protection.

Hazard Mitigation helps with the rebuilding of communities to be stronger, more resilient and prepared for future hazards.

Of great importance to Southwest Florida is federal assistance for debris removal, which has been a major expense for all communities hit by hurricanes.

After the immediate response, FEMA aids communities with their rebuilding and recovery. This is guided by the National Disaster Recovery Framework.

The Lee County experience

The impact and importance of federal support can be seen in Lee County in the aftermath of 2022’s Hurricane Ian.

The Lee County government put the estimated cost of Hurricane Ian in the county at $297.3 million. Over half of this was for debris removal, whose cost came to $156.3 million.

According to Lee County, FEMA approved $477.7 million in Individual Assistance. That included $299 million for repair and replacement assistance and $6 million in rental assistance for 23,704 households. Moreover, 775 households were approved for direct housing assistance.

When it came to Public Assistance, Lee County received $293.9 million in funding. This aided in repairing the Fort Myers Beach Water Reclamation Facility, lift stations for sewage flow, repairing the Lee County Sports Complex and Jet Blue Park, and the Bonita and Lover’s Key beaches.

Looking toward the future from 2023 when Lee County’s report was written, it was estimated that improving and rebuilding Lee County communities would cost $293.9 million, which would be covered under the FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

These were substantial funds provided to Lee County by FEMA. They have made the rebuilding of communities like Fort Myers Beach possible at a much faster pace than would be otherwise possible.

Project 2025 would change that.

What Project 2025 would—or wouldn’t—do

The changes to FEMA are contained in the section of Project 2025 that covers homeland security, since FEMA is part of the Department of Homeland Security.

This section appears under the byline of Ken Cuccinelli.

Project 2025 observes that while FEMA is the lead agency for preparing and responding to disasters, “it is overtasked, overcompensates for the lack of state and local preparedness and response, and is regularly in deep debt.”

Project 2025 blames the Stafford Act for a shift in disaster response from the states and localities to the federal government and complains that FEMA is too “state-friendly.”

In particular, it takes aim at a “per capita indicator.” The indicator gives FEMA the authority to set a threshold below which states and localities are ineligible for public assistance, i.e., the level under which a community won’t get FEMA assistance if its damages are too small.

FEMA, argues Project 2025, sets the indicator so that most communities will get FEMA assistance.

What is more, it states, the indicator has “failed to maintain the pace of inflation and made it easy to meet disaster declaration thresholds. This combination has left FEMA unprepared in both readiness and funding for the truly catastrophic disasters in which its services are most needed.”

Project 2025’s solution is to make it tougher to get federal aid.

“FEMA should raise the threshold because the per capita indicator has not kept pace with inflation, and this over time has effectively lowered the threshold for public assistance and caused FEMA’s resources to be stretched perilously thin,” it states.

If the indicator can’t be raised there’s another option: “Alternatively, applying a deductible could accomplish a similar outcome while also incentivizing states to take a more proactive role in their own preparedness and response capabilities.”

“In addition, Congress should change the cost-share arrangement so that the federal government covers 25 percent of the costs for small disasters with the cost share reaching a maximum of 75 percent for truly catastrophic disasters.”

In other words, states and localities should bear the greatest financial burden for disaster preparation, response, recovery and resilience and that’s where Project 2025 would put it.

For Southwest Florida, this would be…well, in a word…a disaster.

The impact

Under Project 2025 communities already reeling under the devastation of a disaster would be hit with far higher costs and financial burdens for response and recovery than at present. They could look to FEMA for assistance but that assistance would be much lower and more grudging than at present.

FEMA would go from “state-friendly” to “state-stingy.”

Imagine Lee County in the wake of Hurricane Ian under Project 2025 guidelines.

Lee County would have had to bear the cost for most of the $297.3 million in damages from the hurricane. It would have been a staggering burden; in fact, it could have driven the county into bankruptcy—or at the very least the recovery would be even slower and more painful than at present. People would suffer longer. As it is, Lee County’s recovery has been agonizingly slow for some people. Under Project 2025, it wouldn’t recover for decades.

The other Project 2025 alternative, having communities pay deductibles, would be equally burdensome. At a time when their communities were flattened by hurricanes or tornadoes and digging out, towns and cities would be ineligible for aid at the very moment they need it most unless they met arbitrary deductible thresholds.

Lastly, imagine a system in which “small” disasters get only 25 percent in federal support. Was Hurricane Ian a “small” disaster or a “truly catastrophic disaster?” Anyone on the ground knew it was truly catastrophic—but in the full spectrum of disasters handled by FEMA it might not be considered such and so would not have gotten the support for a full recovery. Every new disaster would leave devastated populations wondering: was this “a truly catastrophic disaster” that will get federal help?

The evolution of caring

In 1927 President Calvin Coolidge included this in his annual message to Congress:

“The Government is not the insurer of its citizens against the hazard of the elements. We shall always have flood and drought, heat and cold, earthquake and wind, lightning and tidal wave, which are all too constant in their afflictions. The Government does not undertake to reimburse its citizens for loss and damage incurred under such circumstances. It is chargeable, however, with the rebuilding of public works and the humanitarian duty of relieving its citizens from distress.”

Coolidge was writing in the midst of a truly horrendous Mississippi River flood that devastated the states along its banks and displaced millions of people.

Throughout that disaster, which lasted over months, he refused to visit the site of the floods, wouldn’t request additional appropriations from Congress, wouldn’t make any appeals for voluntary donations and for all intents and purposes ignored the whole event.

It’s a response unthinkable today. But he was reflecting the attitudes of the time. People were on their own, he was saying, and so were their towns, counties and states.

That attitude changed with the Great Depression and the New Deal.

The Great Depression was a natural disaster only in that evoked natural feelings of panic and fear. But it was a disaster that overwhelmed people and even their best individual efforts had virtually no effect.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt altered the national attitude. For the first time the federal government felt an obligation to aid its citizens in their times of need, when they couldn’t cope with a disaster with the tools at hand. (For a full history, see the author’s book, Masters of Disaster: The Political and Leadership Lessons of America’s Greatest Disasters, available on Amazon Kindle.)

More specifically, each natural disaster has led to greater federal involvement to help people crushed by overwhelming events.

In 1950, Congress passed the Federal Disaster Relief Act authorizing federal assistance if a governor requested help and the president approved by declaring a major disaster.

In 1968 the National Flood Insurance Act was signed into law to aid people afflicted with flooding (and which is another program that Project 2025 proposes ending. For more details see “Project 2025 would end federal flood insurance, devastate Southwest Florida and coastal communities.”)

In 1974, after tornadoes struck across 10 states resulting in six federal disaster declarations, Congress passed the Disaster Relief Act.

Then, in 1980, after Mount St. Helens erupted and blanketed parts of the West in volcanic ash, for the first time the federal government assumed 75 percent of the cost of the recovery.

The capstone was the 1988 passage of the Stafford Act, which has been updated since.

Commentary: Project 2025 makes Americans vulnerable again

Project 2025 is critical of FEMA from a banker’s perspective. It correctly points out that FEMA’s emergency fund sometimes gets low. In the Project’s view, that is because FEMA is overly generous to states and localities.

But when this last happened, in August 2023, it was because FEMA was handling multiple disasters including Hurricane Idalia—which especially hit Florida—and wildfires in Maui, Hawaii. As a result its funding had to be replenished by an emergency appropriation of tax dollars.

(It should also be noted that Southwest Florida’s congressman, Rep. Byron Donalds, has consistently voted against appropriations bills that would replenish FEMA funding.)

What the Project 2025 analysis neglects is that FEMA is not a bank. It does not operate a profit and loss balance sheet. It doesn’t charge interest.

FEMA’s mission is to “help people before, during and after disasters.” That means assisting them when they’re in need and usually at the worst times of their lives. It’s not a loan or a handout.

Federal disaster assistance is one of the greatest benefits of being an American citizen.

What’s more, it is what a citizen’s taxes buy. As has been said in these pages before, taxes are a two-way street. A citizen pays into the general pot but gets appropriate benefits as needed.

In this case people’s taxes buy them help when they need it as a result of a natural disaster.

There’s nothing wrong with that, nor is there anything wrong with replenishing FEMA’s emergency funds when there are so many disasters that those funds run low.

Lastly, as for FEMA failing to promote state and local preparedness and response, as Project 2025 charges, the Project’s authors might ask the city officials of Cape Coral, Bonita Springs, Fort Myers Beach and Lee County whether FEMA insists on local preparedness, readiness and resilient rebuilding.

Project 2025 wants to leave American citizens, states, territories, tribes, counties, cities and towns financially naked and vulnerable to natural disasters. It wants to go back to Calvin Coolidge’s cold indifference to Americans’ suffering and return to a time when there was no federal help of any kind.

Moreover, it wants to do this at a time when climate change is making disasters of all sorts more frequent, more intense, and more devastating—and there is no longer any reversing this, it is the new normal. The state of Florida may think it can eliminate climate change by banning mention of it in textbooks and official documents but that’s not the way reality works, as its current state of emergency demonstrates.

Project 2025 is correct in one assertion: FEMA is indeed “overtasked.” But far from gutting FEMA and its capacity to help Americans and their towns and cities, FEMA needs buttressing and support. It already has a big mission and that mission is only going to get bigger.

If Donald Trump is elected and Project 2025 implemented by his sycophants, enablers and loyalists, when it comes to disasters they won’t make America great again.

Instead, they’ll make it weaker, more vulnerable and more devastated— and they’ll do it in Southwest Florida just as much as they’ll do it everywhere else they can.

That is, unless the American people stop Project 2025 at the ballot box this November.

To subscribe to FEMA’s Daily Operations Briefing, click here. This free service provides a daily overview of American disasters, hazards and FEMA responses. (It’s especially informative during hurricane season.)

Liberty lives in light

©2024 by David Silverberg

Sleaze, slime and slander in Collier County: Accusations, falsehoods split Republicans as primary looms

Supporters of Collier County Supervisor of Elections Melissa Blazier march this year in the Naples, Fla., July 4th parade. Blazier has been the target of disinformation from opponents. (Photo: Author)

July 28, 2024 by David Silverberg

Updated July 30 with full image of CCREC posting.

As the days count down to the August 20 primary election in Collier County, Fla., the campaigning is getting uglier, nastier and more unforgiving.

In this overwhelmingly Republican county (139,305 Republicans, 52,342 Democrats and 66,915 others as of July 27) the Republican primary will serve as the general election for a number of important races.

As a result, the outcome is more unpredictable than usual in what is normally a quiet and sleepy tropical corner of the Sunshine State—and as the stakes rise, the discourse sinks.

In particular, there is a rift between many longstanding Republicans who say they are in the majority versus Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans on the official Collier County Republican Executive Committee (CCREC, henceforth referred to here as the REC).

The REC is dominated by Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the extremely conservative grocer and farmer, and chaired by John Meo, a Naples financial manager.

The dissenting Republicans are expressing themselves through a variety of means and organizations, most notably the Collier County Citizens Values Political Action Committee (CCCVPAC, henceforth referred to here as the PAC). (For previous coverage see “Collier County, Fla., Republican PAC breaks with Alfie Oakes and Party Exec Committee; cites ‘authoritarian stance,’ slams ‘angry, inexperienced individuals.’”)

The battle has become bitter, personal and in some cases, overtly fraudulent.

False flyers and fake texts

The Collier County Supervisor of Election race is a key contest. After all, as Josef Stalin once said: “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything”—so the battle is on to be the one who counts the votes.

The race pits current Supervisor of Elections Melissa Blazier against challengers Tim Guerrette and David Schaffel. (For a more complete discussion of the race, see: “This is what integrity looks like: Melissa Blazier for Supervisor of Elections.”)

All are Republicans. In particular, Blazier is a member of the Naples Republican Club, Republican Women of Southwest Florida Federated, and the Women’s Republican Club. Guerrette has been a Republican for over 30 years.

But that hasn’t stopped the REC, which backs Schaffel, from sending out a text messsage accusing Blazier of being a Democrat and Guerrette of being a RINO (Republican in name only).

The REC-issued text message putting false labels on Supervisor of Elections candidates it opposes. (Image: CCREC).

The false labeling story was covered by Dave Elias, political reporter for NBC2 News in Fort Myers in a July 18 report, “Collier County voters receive election text messages with false information.”

“Tens of thousands of Republican voters received confusing and fraudulent messages meant to dupe voters,” Elias reported.

In the report both Blazier and Guerrette denied being anything other than Republicans.

However, “The attacks don’t stop there,” Elias pointed out. “Another flier went out to voters, making it appear that the Republican Party endorsed Guerrette instead of Schaffel.”

When the PAC sent out its list of endorsements on June 27 and denounced REC-endorsed candidates as unqualified for the positions they were seeking, REC Chair John Meo sent out his own text message to Republicans on July 17.

John Meo (Photo: CCREC)

In it he denounced the PAC and another conservative political action committee, Collier First PAC, which endorsed Guerrette in the Supervisor of Elections race. He also alleged that the dissident PACs were violating the law by making endorsements without REC approval.

“While these clear violations are under investigation by law enforcement and the Republican Party of Florida, I feel it is imperative to remind you that you should ONLY trust messages coming directly from the Collier County Republican Party,” he wrote.

“Unfortunately, these Never-Trump dark money groups are pushing candidates who have NOT been endorsed by the Republican Party,” he stated.

This message prompted a blistering response from Diane Van Parys, a Naples resident, president of Republican Women of Southwest Florida Federated and the immediate past president of the Florida Federation of Republican Women.

“Last time I checked, John, neither you nor the CCREC control who Republican’s vote for,” she wrote in an e-mail that was copied to 300 other local Republicans.  “In the United States the ballot and the Democratic process of elections takes place.  A primary is the process of vetting all the Republican Candidates and many of us are able to make a decision on who we choose as the best candidate(s) and vote accordingly without the CCREC’s assistance. 

“The fact that you libeled yourself by labeling a Collier County Constitutional Officer /Supervisor of Elections a Democrat is reason enough to request you to resign your position as Chairman of the CCREC.  You have proven once again that your lack of knowledge and blatant lies should not be tolerated by the CCREC any longer.  Labeling another candidate a RINO who is a 30 year registered Republican is disgraceful.”

She made a particular point of contesting Meo’s point that the independent PACs had somehow broken the law.

“Chairman Meo, the fact that you are threatening fellow Republicans –‘We trust that law enforcement will bring the perpetrators to light and expose the frauds that have been posing as our party.’Exactly who do you think you are?  You must be a liar, prove me wrong and produce the evidence of your filings on behalf of the CCREC with Law Enforcement.”

Parys also questioned the funding for the REC messages and the fact they were sent out during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, when many of the county’s top Republicans were away from Florida.

She pointed out that in neighboring Lee County, in contrast to Collier, the party executive committee was careful not to endorse candidates in contested intra-party primary elections, although other organizations were free to do so.

Meo’s allegation that “dark money” was being employed and that possible crimes were committed also opened up a whole other area for new allegations and investigation by law enforcement. Van Parys questioned the legality of REC’s spending money to promote its endorsed candidates against other Republicans legitimately seeking Party members’ approval. She also noted that while the REC was threatening the independent PACs it said nothing about Oakes’ Citizens Awake Now (CAN) PAC, which is backing the REC-endorsed candidates.

As of this writing there is less than a month to go until the primary. When it comes to the Collier County Republican Party, activities to watch are whether there will be new potential falsehoods, fraudulent propaganda, accusations, and whether law enforcement investigates possible illegal activity.

The sin of Pride?

The political bitterness has also infected the increasingly heated race for two seats on the Collier County School Board.

In this non-partisan race, incumbents Stephanie Lucarelli (District 2) and Erick Carter (District 4) are being challenged by Pamela Shanouda Cunningham and Tom Henning, both of whom have been endorsed by the REC.

Stephanie Lucarelli. (Photo: CCPS)

Cunningham, 49, who is running against Lucarelli, 50, in District 2, is advocating traditional educational principles. “I am committed to moving CCPS [Collier County Public Schools] away from its progressive educational framework and implementing a traditional educational model,” she states on her campaign website.

An earlier version of the website stated that she was an “unapologetic conservative” and claimed that Collier County children’s futures are “being sold out to big government bureaucrats who want to indoctrinate, not educate; career politicians who want to teach them what to think, not how to think.” She wanted to put “parents in classrooms, not the liberal elite” and “restore greatness to the American classroom.”

Pamela Cunningham. (Photo: Author)

In a recent campaign newsletter Cunningham targeted two Collier County parents who had received awards for their volunteer work from Naples Pride, a volunteer-based grassroots nonprofit organization supporting the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual and questioning community.

Megan Titcomb and Amy Perwein had posted a photo of themselves holding awards to their Facebook page.

In a recent campaign newsletter Cunningham targeted two Collier County parents who had received awards for their volunteer work from Naples Pride, a volunteer-based grassroots nonprofit organization supporting the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual and questioning community. Megan Titcomb and Amy Perwein had posted a photo of themselves holding awards to their Facebook page.

Megan Titcomb and Amy Perwein display their Naples Pride awards in the photo used by Pam Cunningham. (Image: WINK News)

Cunningham used the photo in her campaign newsletter, stating “my opponent and her supporters on the radical left are fighting to fundamentally transform our schools into centers of progressive indoctrination, meanwhile allowing true education to wither.”

Both women were outraged and alarmed by the newsletter and reached out to local media.

“Naples Pride has no affiliation with Collier County public schools,” Titcomb told Naples Daily News reporter Ellessandra Taormino. “The event where the picture was taken was not a school event, and it most certainty had nothing to do with Pam’s opponent, Stephanie Lucarelli.”

“I do not post often on social media and rarely publicly, but I could not remain silent,” Perwien said. “I spoke out because I do not want any other parents to be put in this situation; I sincerely hope that Cunningham reconsiders her campaign tactics.”

Cunningham belatedly responded to the parents in an interview with WINK TV’s Jillian Haggerty.

Of the two women, she said: “One of them was at the Naples Pride Fest this year on stage making a speech specifically naming me and my platform and asking the people at the Pride Fest to get out to vote for School Board.”

She said the two weren’t just ordinary parents but were “left-wing activists and are active volunteers for my opponent’s campaign.” Cunningham said she was sent the photos by another party, whom she did not name.

Titcomb and Perwein told WINK TV that they had filed an incident report with the Collier County Sheriff’s Department.

Cunningham’s action sparked a furious backlash in the community as reflected in letters to the editor in the Naples Daily News.

“In political contests these days, many of us believe in the phrase, ‘When they go low, we go high,”’ wrote one county resident, Lisa Freund, in a letter. “Well, in this year’s school board election, incumbent Stephanie Lucarelli’s opponent Pam Cunningham has gone lower than low in attacking two friends of mine who are parents and community advocates for equality and education, all in the service of advancing her candidacy. Attacking parents who work with and for the children of CCPS is no way to run an election campaign.”

Analysis: Don’t trust and be sure to verify

As the campaigning clock ticks down to primary Election Day, it seems clear that MAGA REC Republicans are on the defensive and increasingly relying on outright falsehoods, innuendo, intimidation and insults to achieve their ends since a significant, perhaps majority, of county Republicans are rejecting them.

This was put very clearly by PAC Republicans when they issued their own endorsements on June 27 and stated: “While Collier County enjoys competent local governance, replacing experienced officials with angry, inexperienced individuals to address national issues could undermine our community’s standards.” They also rejected the REC’s “authoritarian stance”—i.e., its insistence that Republicans vote only for REC-backed candidates.

This is not the first pushback against REC dictates. In May 2023 School Board Chair Kelly Mason (formerly Lichter), whose election had been supported by Oakes and his CAN PAC, voted to install Leslie Ricciardelli as school superintendent despite Oakes’ opposition. He called her a “traitor” for her vote and sued the school board. This year, the Collier First PAC, whose registered agent is Lauren Maxwell, wife of Commissioner Kowal who was elected with Oakes’ endorsement and support, is supporting Guerrette for Supervisor despite the Oakes endorsement of Schaffel.

The REC is clearly basing its endorsements on loyalty to MAGA ideology rather than proven competence, experience or education. As Oakes put it on the Alfiespatriots.com website and in campaign flyers: “These are the only true patriots I trust to protect Collier County and get America back on track.”

Oakes’ pursuit of ideological loyalty overrides all other considerations and he most directly stated this at his Patriot Fest on March 19, 2022 when he told the assembled crowd: “I don’t want to hear about what IQ someone has or what level of education someone has,” when it came to candidate qualifications. “Common sense and some back is all we need right now.”

In the 2022 election cycle, ideologically loyal candidates were elected: Chris Hall on the Collier County Board of Commissioners in District 2, Dan Kowal in District 4 and Kelly Mason, Jerry Rutherford and Tim Moshier on the School Board.

The result has been a flurry of ideologically-driven legislation from the Board of Commissioners, introduction of religion into the deliberations of the School Board and a variety of outlandish and bizarre notions like introducing corporal punishment in the schools.

Now the REC is trying to further install inexperienced, ideologically-driven candidates in positions that could deeply disrupt the effective functioning of Collier County government, elections and schools.

The use of false allegations, innuendo, intimidation and insults appears to be a reflection of a growing desperation by the MAGA-dominated REC. It’s very unsophisticated campaigning that seems impulsive, emotional and even childish.

It also imitates tactics debuted by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past.

However, while these were novel tactics when Trump used them in his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, this year traditional conservative Collier County Republicans appear to be rejecting them at the local level. This rejection may also reflect simple weariness with the constant barrage of lies, paranoia and authoritarianism that has come to characterize MAGAism.

Ultimately, primary voters will have to exercise rigorous skepticism, discernment and alertness in trying to determine the truth of the candidates, their statements, policies and endorsements. And of course, the real test of the contest between truth and falsehood, and the strength of MAGAs versus traditional Republicans, will be rendered at the ballot box on Aug. 20.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg

(Illustration: Anthony Russo)

The Kamala Effect: Can it flip Florida?

Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff arrive on Air Force 2 in Cape Canaveral, Florida for a visit to NASA on Aug. 29, 2022. (Photo: NASA/Bill Ingalls)

July 24, 2024 by David Silverberg

President Joe Biden’s announcement on Sunday, July 21, that he was withdrawing from the presidential race in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris sent a thrill through Democrats and all those who fear and oppose a potential dictatorship under Donald Trump.

Harris’ candidacy is especially important for Florida given the Amendment 4 fight for abortion rights, the state’s demographic trends, and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ideological cultural clampdown.

Trump was on a roll in the wake of the July 13 failed assassination attempt and the bump from the Republican National Convention. Biden’s powers appeared to be failing and he seemed unable to carry through the campaign to a must-win victory. His endorsement of the younger, more vigorous Harris turned the trends on their heads.

But how will the new situation affect Florida politically? There’s little hard data so any analysis is necessarily speculative. Still, trends can be discerned and the focus put on key issues.

Amendment 4 impact

Harris seems poised to make a significant difference in the Amendment 4 fight, which cuts across party lines.

She has consistently been an outspoken advocate for women’s reproductive rights throughout her tenure as vice president. In the spring she held a “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour around the country. She especially engaged after Florida’s six-week abortion ban took effect on May 1.

That ban energized Democrats and launched the movement for a state constitutional amendment protecting a woman’s right to choose. Support for the amendment cuts across party lines and polling has shown its support in the realm of 69 percent, well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage.

Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has boosted pro-choice supporters across the country but it looks to have an especially electrifying effect in Florida.

Can Harris flip the state?

Despite DeSantis’ overwhelming 2022 electoral victory and election of a Republican super majority in the state legislature, Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried has persistently insisted that Florida is flippable. The Harris nomination gives some credibility to that assertion.

“Vice President Harris keeps Florida in play,” Fried told reporters in a remote press conference. “We are running a former prosecutor against a convicted felon. No one is better prepared than Vice President Harris to prosecute the case against Donald Trump.”

Since the start of the campaign Trump has consistently polled eight to ten percentage points over Biden in the state. The change in the ticket is so new that credible new data isn’t publicly available yet.

For a long time, top national Democratic Party campaigners viewed Florida as a lost cause and Southwest Florida as especially hopeless. Starting in 2016 the region has been a backwater campaign stop, left to secondary surrogates like former President Bill Clinton who visited Immokalee and Fort Myers on behalf of the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) who visited Fort Myers in 2020 on behalf of the Biden campaign.

On June 24 of this year, Florida Democrats suffered a new blow when Biden campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon contradicted state party assertions and simply stated that Florida wasn’t a battleground state.

This revelation came in response to a question from host John Heilemann in a podcast interview on the channel Puck News. Heilemann asked Dillon if Florida was a battleground state. Dillon answered “no,” prompting Heilemann to joke that he was afraid Dillon was going to lie to the contrary.

Jen O’Malley Dillon is interviewed by John Heilemann on Sept. 13, 2020 for his podcast. (Photo: John Heilemann).

The exchange was characterized as a “gut punch” to Florida Democrats’ hopes and efforts. It also contradicted an April campaign memo from Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she wrote then.

The entire political universe has turned upside down since those statements were made.

The question to be answered in the days ahead is whether or not the Harris candidacy, the efforts of Florida Democrats and a change in the public mood can make Florida more obviously winnable for Democrats.

One thing that hasn’t changed, though: on Monday, July 22, Harris announced that O’Malley will stay on as Chair of her campaign.

This means that Florida Democrats must prove that the head of the Harris campaign is wrong. The only way to do that is to win the state and do it without national help.

Culture wars

DeSantis has made his crusade against “woke” culture the centerpiece of his governorship and had hoped to ride it to the presidency this year.

That ambition fell flat, particularly in the face of Trump’s attacks on him and his own shortcomings.

But DeSantis has kept up the effort rhetorically and financially, as when he vetoed all $32 million in state support for the arts this year.

Harris has been a counter-crusader in Florida, inveighing against DeSantis’ worldview.

For example, in August 2023 Harris came to lambast new Florida state curricula teaching the benefits of slavery to the enslaved.

“Right here in Florida, they plan to teach people that enslaved people benefited from slavery,” she said incredulously during that visit. When DeSantis challenged her to debate the issue she responded, “There is no roundtable, no lecture, no invitation we will accept to debate an undeniable fact: There were no redeeming qualities of slavery.”

She took on the entire DeSantis revision of history, saying in July 2023 that he and other conservative politicians “want to replace history with lies.”

“We will not stop calling out and fighting back against extremist so-called leaders who try to prevent our children from learning our true and full history,” she said at the time.

She has also spoken out against book banning and gun violence. In March she traveled to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland to honor the victims of the 2018 shooting.

What to expect

As of this writing it is 104 days (three months and 12 days) to the election. A lot can happen in that time.

Right now Harris is on a roll. Her pending nomination has supercharged Democrats and the media coverage. If all goes as expected she will head into a triumphant convention on August 19 in Chicago and benefit from the traditional convention “bump.”

However, it’s worth remembering that whenever one side is trending, the other side will try to disrupt that trend, especially when the trend seems to be heading toward victory.

The Trump campaign must do everything it can to re-orient itself to running against Harris and it will use every kind of ammunition it can against her—and her husband, Doug Emhoff, and all the members of their extended families.

Rick Wilson, the Florida-based pundit, author, Lincoln Project co-founder, and veteran Republican operative put it well in a blog post, “Karma Comes Knocking for Trump.”

“First, the Trump campaign is still armed and dangerous,” he warned. “Don’t underestimate their cash, cruelty, and [the] determination of Trump to stay out of jail. There is no lower boundary. They can and will fight like the rabid, cornered animals they are.”

He warned that Harris and her campaign will make mistakes. “This is inevitable. She will say something wrong. She will get tired. She will forget a date, a name, or a fact. Campaigns are exhausting.”

As entranced as the media is with her now, they will turn, Wilson warned. “Harris jumped up so fast they naturally want to take her down a notch, and they will.”

Violence is very much a possibility, as illustrated by the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13. Reaching back further in time, it’s worth remembering the killing of another female political leader, Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated in Pakistan in 2007 when it appeared that she was on her way to electoral victory.

The Secret Service is on high alert but the threat not only remains, it has intensified.

The election battle will also intensify in Florida, playing on emotions that will get meaner and nastier as Election Day approaches. While DeSantis and Trump still dominate the state, they will be fighting to maintain their dominance. They have a war chest, so voters can expect to see plenty of advertising in all mediums attacking Harris, Democrats, Amendment 4 and the marijuana legalization initiative, Amendment 3.

Unless campaign director O’Malley and the national campaign decide that investing in Florida is worthwhile, the Democratic response is likely to be tepid due to funding constraints. Only a truly robust ground campaign can even make a dent in the Republican registration advantage.

Florida Democrats do have some advantages, though. If Harris’ appeal remains strong it may lift all other Democrats down the ballot. Her outspokenness on reproductive rights, healthcare and women’s rights may have a cross-party allure, bringing her independents, the uncommitted and non-Trump Republicans. Anger over the six-week abortion ban and the movement to pass Amendment 4 is already providing a powerful boost to Democratic prospects.

Another factor in Harris’ favor is the fact that Americans appear to have become accustomed to the idea of a female president. When Hillary Clinton ran in 2016 the idea of a woman president was new and for many, scary; particularly that woman. (Even so, she won the popular vote by 2 million votes.) Since then the idea seems to have lost much of its novelty as was shown by the relatively strong showing of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley in the Republican primaries. Clearly, even many Republicans are now comfortable with the idea of a female president.

Harris has another advantage—and his name is Donald Trump. No poll has measured the weariness, the disgust, and revulsion of voters towards this man. Americans now know the corruption, criminality, and devastation another Trump presidency will bring. The data that’s been made public to date hasn’t measured how many Americans fear the threat he represents to their democracy and rights as individuals. The hatred, prejudice and rage he generates, his meanness, pettiness, and viciousness is unlikely to in any way abate in the days ahead; indeed, it is likely to intensify. Many voters will recoil. 

Lastly, Harris is continuing Joe Biden’s fight for the soul of America but with an additional challenge. Like Joan of Arc, she has to do more than just lead; she has to inspire. She needs to elevate the dialogue, raise the level of devotion and then bring it home on Election Day in a clear, unambiguous and decisive victory that puts Trumpist authoritarianism to rest once and for all.

It’s a tall order. Harris has stated that she plans to “earn and win” the nomination of her party. That nomination seems assured. After that she’ll need to “earn and win” the presidency. She’ll certainly have help from every supportive American.

But earning and winning that victory won’t be easy and it’s on that victory that this state, the nation, the world and the arc of all future history depends.

Then-candidate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020 shortly after he named her his vice presidential running mate. (Photo: Biden campaign)

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg