June 27, 2024 by David Silverberg

When I moved full-time to Collier County, Florida 11 years ago, I had very low political expectations.

After all, it was the deepest South, so I figured it was probably run by a bunch of good ol’ boys who arranged things for their own convenience. I expected elections to be rigged as a matter of course, just part of the culture.

But all that was before I met Jennifer Edwards, Collier County’s Supervisor of Elections. Over time I realized that this lively, energetic, outgoing woman really believed in the integrity of the election process, it wasn’t just a slogan for her. Her care and commitment infused the work of her office and staff. The statistics they produced were reliable and when elections rolled around the results could be trusted—even if I didn’t like the outcomes.

Now her legacy of electoral reliability and trustworthiness is under attack as is her deputy and protégé, Melissa Blazier, the current Supervisor of Elections.

Blazier is running this year to keep her position for another four years.

Whether Blazier can win another term in office will determine whether or not Collier County continues to have elections that are honest, accurate and lawful.

The path to perdition

Collier County is not unique in finding itself in the position of a contested election for a long-obscure and relatively overlooked county office that is suddenly in the spotlight.

In this it was carried along on currents that swept the entire nation.

In 2020 when he lost the presidency, Donald Trump alleged massive vote rigging and fraud. He began a chaotic campaign to discredit all voting results and the entire election system throughout the country. When all his court challenges failed he incited a violent insurrection to overturn the election itself.

In 2020 Collier County went 61 percent for Trump and everyone agreed the state had gone resoundingly Republican. No one challenged those results statewide or in the county—except for one individual, Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the extreme pro-Trump farmer and grocer.

Well after the election was decided and the results accepted by all parties, in September 2021 Oakes called for a recount based on a simple suspicion of machine-counted ballots that was then sweeping extreme election-denying circles. He offered $100,000 to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign if the governor would sit down for two hours to hear Oakes’ argument that the 2020 election was fraudulent. DeSantis never took him up on the meeting.

Two years later the 2022 election results went unchallenged in Collier County but Oakes was still convinced that elections were amiss. In February 2023 he told The Paradise Progressive he would be challenging Edwards as Supervisor of Elections when her term was up in 2024.

Oakes believed the Supervisor’s office was corrupt even if Edwards herself was honest, and he wanted to do away with machine counts of ballots, which he didn’t trust but which are mandated by law.

Edwards announced her retirement in April 2023 and her place was taken by her deputy of 17 years, Melissa Blazier, who was duly appointed Election Supervisor by DeSantis.

Blazier, 46, is now up for election in her own right.

Election integrity and assaults on it

Americans have a clear and unambiguous example of attempted interference, fraud and manipulation of the electoral process.

On Jan. 2, 2020 then-President Donald Trump called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. He alleged all sorts of fraud and criminality in the results that awarded the state to Joe Biden. After a lengthy, rambling tirade, he got to the real point of his phone call.

“All I want to do is this,” he said. “I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have because we won the state.”

Over and over Raffensperger and the other Georgian officials in the room told Trump they had found no fraud, had recounted the ballots, certified the results and his wild accusations were false and delusional. They stuck to their data. They weren’t going to agree with any of his allegations or change the count. They also released a recording of the phone call (which even to this day provides for some shocking reading and listening).

In other words, honest election officials don’t find votes, they count them.

Today Trump is being prosecuted in Georgia for 13 charges of violating the state’s racketeering act, soliciting a public officer to violate his or her oath, conspiring to impersonate a public officer, conspiring to commit forgery in the first degree and conspiring to file false documents.

But the incident also provided a vivid example of how election interference really works; it’s not the grand conspiracy or the sweeping plot; it’s the phone call, the appeal, the threat, the request, even an outright bribe to change the results of an election.

In Collier County this year’s race for Supervisor of Elections revolves around the question of “election integrity.”

Given the example of Trump and the Georgians the question at the heart of the county race for Supervisor of Elections is this: If a rich, powerful, well-connected candidate calls the Supervisor of Elections and asks to bend the rules, will the Supervisor have the strength, the honesty and the integrity to say no?

Maybe the caller will want to find just enough votes to tip an election. Maybe the demand will be that the Supervisor bend the rules. Maybe the call will be a request to delay a certification.

The people running against Blazier are arguing that there’s something wrong with the Election Supervisor’s office and that she and the current election process somehow lack integrity.

But other than a sense of malaise and suspicion, they’re not specific about any problems.

Tim Guerrette

Timothy Guerrette (pronounced with a soft “g”), 57, a retired sheriff’s deputy with no prior election management experience calls himself “a proud patriot” for whom “God, family, and country come first!” He says that he will bring the county “safe, secure and ethical” elections. He argues that “no barriers should exist between the community and the Supervisor of Elections” and “Elections should never be held in the dark!” Under his leadership, he says, “the voting process in Collier County will ALWAYS be transparent to deter any concern of fraud and promote confidence.”  

Of the candidates, to date Guerrette has raised the most money: $110,558 in direct contributions, and $26,374 in “in kind” contributions and has spent $80,399, according to his financial reports. He’s been actively campaigning, particularly among the law enforcement officers and first responders, where he’s best known and most familiar.

But is he being as honest and transparent as he insists he will make Collier County elections?

On his campaign Facebook page Guerrette is claiming support from various municipalities throughout the county. It’s a tactic that works for unsuspecting readers but it got some pushback from at least one person with personal knowledge of it.

When Guerrette claimed that “Everglades City stands with Tim Guerrette,” Michael McComas, a city councilmember elected in 2022 snapped back: “Who gave you the authority to speak for our City? You constantly claim that you were here for our last election which you know is untrue. How do I know this[?] I am a member of the City Council who was elected to office in that election and you were nowhere in sight during that process.”

Or consider this: the sudden presence of what is known as a “ghost” candidate.

When the candidate qualifying period ended on June 14, there was suddenly an independent write-in candidate in the Elections Supervisor race: Edward Gubala, a former firefighting captain and close ally of Guerrette.

Gubala had not previously campaigned for the office, spent any money or displayed an interest in filling the position. His whole reason for qualifying was to close the primary election to non-Republicans to benefit Guerrette.

Under Florida law, once a candidate from another party enters a primary that primary becomes closed to all but registered voters of that party. So in a stroke, Guerrette disenfranchised 119,115 independent and Democratic Collier County voters, 46 percent of the total, from voting in an election that affected them all—and this from a man who claims he wants to bring “ethical” and “transparent” elections that are never “held in the dark!”

Nor was there any doubt that Gubala was ghosting for Guerrette. He has no website or campaign material. He refused to make himself available for media interviews. He even proudly posed in Guerrette regalia at a Guerrette campaign booth.

As a campaign move, ghosting is legal under current procedures—but it’s also deceptive, restrictive and unfair. Moreover, this one is blatantly obvious. Guerrette and Gubala didn’t even bother to cover their tracks.

Given these factors, voters have to wonder: if Guerrette became Supervisor of Elections and a rich, powerful, well-connected person called him and said, “Tim, we just need to find another 50 votes to make this election come out our way,” how would Guerrette respond?

But it wouldn’t even have to be someone rich, powerful and well connected. Remember that the Supervisor of Elections oversees elections for fire districts, law enforcement and tax-related matters.

What if a fire captain, old friend and campaign donor called Guerrette and said, “Tim, we just need to find another 100 votes to up this millage rate so we can get some cash into this fire district. I know the voters don’t want their taxes to rise, but do you think you could help us out?”

That’s the kind of temptation and blandishment a Supervisor of Elections faces—and make no mistake, conversations like that do take place.

Dave Schaffel

David Schaffel, 63, is a former information technology technician, entrepreneur and consultant, who has lived in Southwest Florida for the past five years. He has no prior experience, either professional or volunteer, in election management or administration.

Schaffel is running on the same malaise and suspicion platform as Guerrette.

“Was our presidential election stolen?” states the opening line in his campaign video while dark and menacing music plays in the background. “American voters deserve to know the truth. The machines: can they be trusted? Mail-in ballots: were they all really legitimate? Joe Biden: did he deserve to be President? All across the country, moms, dads, grandmas, grandpas and patriots like you are wondering: will we never have a free and fair election again?”

Schaffel calls himself “a rock-solid conservative and America First patriot.” To date he’s raised $43,027 in direct contributions, $1,004 in “in-kind” contributions and spent $31,369, according to his financial reports.

Schaffel is backed by Alfie Oakes.

Schaffel promises to “rigorously monitor the accuracy of voter rolls and introduce new proven technological advances to identify fraud” and claims “my Information Technology career gives me unique skills to mitigate risk, provide real transparency, and restore voter confidence.” It’s unclear exactly what new technologies and skills he would apply to a process that is rigorously regulated by law. His questioning echoes past Trumpist mistrust of machine counts and mail-in voting.

While Schaffel focuses his attention on broad suspicions of procedures based on the 2020 national election results, it’s hard not to imagine election integrity challenges that are closer to home.

For example, how would Schaffel react if he was Election Supervisor and a locally prominent, well-connected businessman who had funded Schaffel’s campaign and promoted his candidacy called and asked: “Dave, I filed my candidacy papers a little after the deadline and some of the spots were left blank. Do you think you could cut me some slack and maybe fill in the blanks and backdate it to before the deadline? No one needs to know. Thanks.”

Or if a prominent state politician called and asked, “Dave, I could use a little help in Collier County. All I need to do is find 200 votes and we’re in the clear. There’s a lot at stake. Can you go in there and do that? I’ll make it worth your while.”

Or, perhaps most insidious of all, if someone called and said: “Dave, we need to get another rock-solid, America First patriot on the Republican Executive Committee and all we need are 27 more votes to do it. I’m sure they’re in your database if you look.”

The voters of Collier County would always be left to wonder: will we never have a free and fair election again?

Commentary: Why I support Melissa Blazier

Interestingly, despite all their suspicions and distrust of the current officeholder, when they were at the podium of the Collier County Board of Commissioners on April 23 to discuss an election resolution (which failed), and could have leveled accusations, both Guerrette and Schaffel actually praised Blazier’s oversight of the office.

Guerrette lauded Collier County and its current election staff for their dedication to “secure, ethical elections in Collier County.”

While Schaffel argued for less use of election technology, he admitted, “Yes, I think the way elections are run in Collier County, they’re run smoothly” and the staff “are doing their jobs in that office. They do a great job of running the election according to statute. And I want to make it absolutely clear that that is the case.”

So what’s the problem?

In light of the current campaigns and candidates it’s clear that Blazier is the best choice for Collier County.

It’s not just that she just successfully managed an election decided by a mere 22 votes for the City of Naples without any flaw or blemish, nor that she has over 18 years of experience in the field of election management, nor that she has more than ample certifications and testaments to her expertise, nor that she knows Florida election law thoroughly and completely, nor that she was taught by Jennifer Edwards, the best in the business.

The most compelling reason why Blazier should remain Collier County Supervisor of Elections is that she has actually demonstrated election integrity on the front lines when it counts.

The others talk the talk but she actually walks the walk.

She qualified Edward Gubala despite the fact that it hurt her own bid and knew it was a sham candidacy—because she adhered to the law.

But the most important example of her election integrity came on June 14 when Alfie Oakes failed to turn in his candidacy qualifying papers on time and in full. Blazier adhered to the law and disqualified him—regardless of his standing in the community and his denials, protests, insults and personal allegations against her.

That’s what election integrity looks like.

If election integrity is the main issue in this election then there’s no contest. The challengers might as well fold up their tents and slink home.

Of course, they’re not going to do that. This battle will be fought out until the bitter end, which looks like it will take place on August 20, primary election day.

In the past, in normal times, election administration was something unquestioned, a sort of distant hum in the background, like air conditioning, part of the overall environment, functioning quietly and unobtrusively.

That’s no longer the case. Election integrity is not to be taken for granted. It’s precious. It’s threatened.

But every voter in Collier County should know election integrity when it stands before them—and in this place, at this time, Melissa Blazier is what integrity looks like.

Liberty lives in light

© 2024 by David Silverberg