We’re all ‘the usual suspects’ now

*A depiction of Vichy French gendarmes with “the usual suspects” rounded up in the bazaar, from the movie Casablanca.*

May 2, 2025 by David Silverberg

It’s an iconic scene from an iconic movie.

The 1942 movie Casablanca opens with French Vichy police conducting a criminal investigation. They do this by rounding up people at random, which they call “the usual suspects,” in the city’s bazaar. During the movie, when there’s a particularly serious crime they round up twice the usual number of suspects.

It doesn’t matter who the people are or where they were, they’re all under suspicion.

In contrast, in the United States, an arrest is not supposed to occur until there’s “probable cause” to believe there’s guilt. Once arrested, an accused person is held innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

It’s a bedrock American principle.

But along with other bedrock American principles it’s under attack by President Donald Trump and his regime.

This is happening under the umbrella of Trump’s almost psychotic hatred, prejudice and rage against migrants, immigrants and foreigners, a psychosis that he is injecting into American government at all levels.

Nowhere is this hatred, prejudice and rage being more fully embraced than in Florida.

More than half of the more than 500 local police departments and state agencies that have joined President Donald Trump’s drive for mass deportations are in Florida.

During the past month Florida towns and counties were essentially forced to vote to cooperate with federal authorities’ immigration actions under pressure from the governor and the state’s attorney general. No dissenting votes were permitted, as was amply demonstrated in Fort Myers. Both the president and the governor used threats against what they deemed to be “sanctuary cities,” even though no Florida municipality has officially adopted that position. Florida schools and universities were pressured into joining the program as well.

On April 24, federal authorities, with local help, began rounding up around people in Florida for incarceration and deportation and have now detained an estimated total of 1,100 people. In Miami federal authorities expanded the Krome Detention Center in Miami to accommodate their new holdings. Gov. Ronald DeSantis (R) is even asking the state legislature for money so that he can conduct deportation flights of his own like the ones he ordered in 2023 to Martha’s Vineyard and Washington, DC.

Trump’s stated target are those aliens who have committed criminal offenses while in unauthorized residence in the United States. But it is clear that this effort is going far beyond that, with his consent and encouragement. The setting of quotas for apprehensions and deportations indicates that these actions are not based on evidence and possible individual criminality but on broad, unproven suspicion rooted in, in Trump’s own words, “hatred, prejudice and rage.”

Criminal deportations have been going on for quite some time. For example, President Barack Obama, deported an estimated 5.2 million undocumented aliens, with an emphasis on those with criminal records. But it was done without fanfare or spectacle, a quiet, relentless but also effective drive to weed out criminal migrants while respecting the basic human rights of asylum seekers and immigrants.

The anti-migrant movement is spilling over into an assault on basic rights of all Americans. If allowed to continue, it is going to become far worse. It has the potential to become the greatest tragedy in American history, the end of America’s constitutional republic, the demise of its democratic experiment and the end of American freedom altogether.

Trump’s actions are being billed as an effort to protect the American people—but they are not. In fact, his regime threatens Americans in new and dangerous ways that hark back to the days before American independence.

What’s under attack now is the very bedrock of America, the cornerstones of the American republic, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence.

So, what are some of the key bedrock principles in danger? Why is this important? And what can be done about it?

(A note on terminology in this article: This article follows definitions that an “immigrant” is someone who has legally been admitted into a country and all “immigrants” are ipso facto legal. (In other words, technically there is no such thing as an “illegal immigrant.”) A “migrant” is someone who has or is moving. (A useful mnemonic device is to remember that all immigrants are “in,” while all migrants are “moving.”) An “undocumented migrant” is someone who does not have the legal permissions to be present in a country. An “alien” is any foreigner.)

The Blackstone ratio

*The statue of Sir William Blackstone in Washington, DC. (Photo: Creative Commons)*

In Washington, DC, there is a statue of the famous British jurist Sir William Blackstone outside the federal courthouse where so many cases of national importance are tried.

Writing in the 1760s, Blackstone put forward a principle that has been a bedrock of American jurisprudence from the day it was published in his book, Commentaries on the Laws of England.

“…All presumptive evidence of felony should be admitted cautiously, for the law holds that it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer.”

Ever since the abuses that led to the American revolution, American law has held that an innocent person should never be held, imprisoned or punished for something that he or she did not in fact do.

The entire American judicial and legal system is based on this principle. All the mechanisms of enforcement, investigation, jury and trial are built around ascertaining beyond a reasonable doubt that a person is truly guilty and that not a single innocent person—not just a citizen—is wrongly punished.

The actions being taken by the Trump regime violate this principle. In their pursuit of undocumented migrants they are sweeping up the innocent as well as the presumptively guilty.

This is why the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia of Maryland has become so important. Garcia is an undocumented citizen of El Salvador who was arrested in the United States on March 12 on suspicion of being a member of the Salvadoran MS-13 gang. He was deported to El Salvador’s notorious CECOT prison, along with 200 other people seized and deported on suspicion of gang membership. His family denied that he was ever a member of the gang. ICE admitted that his seizure and deportation was the result of an “administrative error.” A federal judge ruled first that he not be deported and then, when he was already in El Salvador, that he be returned. The case was appealed to the Supreme Court, which unanimously ruled that the regime must “facilitate” his return to the United States for a hearing.

To date he has not been returned, even though he had a visit in El Salvador from Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.).

Garcia is no angel. He has a history of past arrests, detentions and allegations of domestic abuse. But in this instance, he was not given a chance to prove that he was innocent of the suspicions—not even crimes, suspicions—leveled against him.

But this regime, in its defiance and indifference to fundamental principles of human rights, is determined to act on its suspicions without proof, in violation of Blackstone’s dictum. In this it shares the attitude of other authoritarian regimes, which hold that punishing those it pursues is more important than protecting the innocent. In places like Maoist China, communists reasoned, “Better to kill a hundred innocent people than let one truly guilty person go free.” In Pol Pot’s Cambodia, the Khmer Rouge held, “better arrest an innocent person than leave a guilty one free.” The Trump regime is now joining the likes of communist China’s Gang of Four and the genocidal regime of Pol Pot in sacrificing presumption of innocence in pursuit of its perceived enemies.

Taking action based on suspicion without protecting the innocent is a fundamental violation of American principles, jurisprudence and basic human decency.

But the means to determine guilt or innocence raises another question of principle.

Due process

*The Bill of Rights of the United States Constitution. (Photo: National Archives)*

An accused person’s right to go through a formal process determining his or her guilt or innocence—what is known as “due process” —is so important, it is enshrined twice in the Constitution of the United States. Nor is it confined just to citizens.

It first appears in the Bill of Rights, Amendment Five:

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

It next appears in Amendment Fourteen:

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

Both Stephen Miller, the White House homeland security advisor, and Tom Homan, head of ICE, have denied that non-US citizens are entitled to due process rights.

On April 1, Miller posted on X: “Friendly reminder: If you illegally invaded our country the only ‘process’ you are entitled to is deportation.” Homan agreed in an April 8 interview with Axios: “People who are enemies of the United States don’t have the same level [of] due process [as in] the normal process.”

Clearly the US Supreme Court did not agree with this interpretation when it unanimously ruled that Garcia had to be returned to the United States for a review of his case.

But however the Garcia case plays out, yet another fundamental American principle is being attacked in the Trump regime’s war against foreigners.

Presumption of innocence

As noted at the beginning of this essay, what’s happening now is reminiscent of the roundup of “the usual suspects” portrayed in Casablanca.

In contrast to roundups like that, in the United States, an arrest is not supposed to occur until there’s “probable cause” to believe there’s guilt. Once arrested, an accused person is held innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

Even though it’s a bedrock American principle, surprisingly, it is not spelled out as such in the US Constitution or Bill of Rights. Instead, it has long been derived from the Fifth Amendment’s commitment to due process. It was more explicitly stated in an 1896 Supreme Court case, “Coffin versus the United States,” which held that the US prosecutor had to overcome a “presumption of innocence” to find the defendant guilty.

American law enforcement is not supposed to round up “the usual suspects” as a formal procedure. That sort of thing has indeed happened but it has been considered an anomaly, an aberration and sometimes, a crime.

But presumption of innocence is not being applied for those people being rounded up for incarceration or deportation by this regime. In fact, the opposite is true: they’re being viewed as national enemies and presumed guilty without the chance to prove innocence.

It is true that there are millions of people who are in the United States without authorization. The reason it was tolerated in the past was because their low-cost labor was widely considered valuable to the US economy, particularly in the agricultural sector. There was enforcement at the border but people still entered illegally. Many found jobs, settled down, raised families, started businesses and even paid taxes. In many quarters, especially by business, they were considered important assets in keeping production high and consumer prices low. They didn’t threaten the country, they built it.

Where there was criminality it was dealt with either by the Border Patrol, federal authorities or local law enforcement. Border authorities and law enforcement also combatted drug smuggling and contraband.

It is not widely known but the border was actually sealed, and quite tightly, after 9/11. For undocumented migrants, many of them seasonal workers, this created a dilemma: they could return to their places of origin, mostly Mexico and Latin America, and possibly never return to the United States. Or else, they could stay in place, hope for the best, and possibly attain citizenship through legal means.

Three times there were attempts in Congress to comprehensively deal with these problems and the undocumented population; in 2007, 2014 and in 2024. In all cases the efforts were scuttled by political opposition. In the last instance senators from both parties had worked out a comprehensive bipartisan agreement but Trump deliberately sank it in order to use the issue in his presidential campaign.

Now Trump has flipped the script: undocumented aliens are classified as enemies, even hostile attackers of the United States. From his very first presidential campaign speech in 2015 when he called all Mexicans “criminals” and “rapists” he has utterly ignored the positive contributions of migrants and immigrants and vastly exaggerated their negative aspects.

By invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 on March 15, Trump declared the United States in a state of “invasion or predatory incursion” by the Venezuelan gang Tren De Aragua. He used this to treat his targets as wartime enemies not subject normal rights and protections.

While enhanced enforcement could be conducted in a legal and constitutional manner, it is clear that the hatred, prejudice and rage with which Trump’s anti-immigrant crusade is being conducted is being applied to all foreigners. It is now lapsing over into attacks on innocent, fully naturalized and even native-born American citizens.

In a comprehensive article on the subject, Pro Publica, an independent, nonprofit, investigative newsroom detailed numerous instances of American citizens being swept up in the crackdown (“Some Americans Have Already Been Caught in Trump’s Immigration Dragnet. More Will Be”).

At risk—and resisting

*Protesters at a May Day rally in Naples, Fla. (Image: Pamela Hostetter)*

In the current atmosphere, any American could become one of the “usual suspects.”

This kind of conduct puts every American citizen at risk. With the erosion and indifference to constitutional rights and protections, we are already in a time when any American can be picked up at any time for any reason, without a warrant or probable cause.

It is exactly the situation the founders sought to avoid by approving the Bill of Rights. It is oppression.

Prominent opposition voices are already speaking out on this.

On Wednesday, May 1, former Vice President Kamala Harris spoke in San Francisco in her first major speech following her presidential campaign.

“Instead of an administration working to advance America’s highest ideals, we are witnessing the wholesale abandonment of those ideals,” she said. Americans were speaking out to say “it is not ok to detain and disappear American citizens or anyone without due process.”

She encouraged people to organize, mobilize and be active. “Please keep doing what you are doing. and to everyone, let’s lock it in.”

But it was a speech by Gov. Jay Robert “JB” Pritzker (D) of Illinois on Sunday, April 27, that most directly proposed action. Speaking at the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner in Manchester, New Hampshire, Pritzker directly attacked “do-nothing Democrats” and “a culture of timidity.”

But he also directly addressed the attack on the fundamentals.

“It’s wrong to snatch a person off the street and ship them to a foreign gulag with no chance to defend themselves in a court of law,” he insisted, arguing that this was a question that went beyond immigration to the heart of the Constitution. “Standing for the idea that the government doesn’t have the right to kidnap you without due process is arguably the most effective campaign slogan in history,” he said. “Today, it’s an immigrant with a tattoo. Tomorrow, it’s a citizen whose Facebook post annoys Trump.”

His solution? “Never before in my life have I called for mass protests, for mobilization, for disruption. But I am now,” he said. “These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace. They must understand that we will fight their cruelty with every megaphone and microphone that we have. We must castigate them on the soap box … and then punish them at the ballot box.”

Stephen Miller, the White House homeland security advisor, said Pritzker’s call to action “could be construed as inciting violence,” to which Pritzker responded by noting Miller’s support of the violent Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol and saying, “It’s terrible hypocrisy on the part of Stephen Miller and of others who have said somehow that my remarks [are anything other than] about peaceful protest.”

In Southwest Florida, people have been mobilizing and protesting in repeated demonstrations against the regime’s actions. Even in Naples, known for its conservative Trumpism, well-attended demonstrations took place on April 5 and 19th (the 250th anniversary of the battles of Lexington and Concord) and again yesterday, Thursday, May 1.

And there was one bit of good news: On the same day that Trump celebrated his 100 days in office and Harris denounced him, in the US District Court for the Southern District of Texas, Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr., ruled that the regime cannot deport Venezuelan migrants under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act (AEA).

The Act only applies when there is an “armed organized attack on the United States,” stated Rodriguez.

“The historical record renders clear that the president’s invocation of the AEA… is contrary to the plain, ordinary meaning of the statute’s terms,” the judge wrote. “As a result, the court concludes that as a matter of law, the executive branch cannot rely on the AEA… to detain the named petitioners… or to remove them from the country.”

It was one small push back against the regime’s effort to arrest, detain and deport anyone it wants without due process or probable cause or proof of guilt. It only applies to South Texas. It will no doubt be appealed. It may be ignored. But it also shows that a commitment to the Constitution and the bedrock fundamentals of America is hardly dead.

Clearly, the “usual suspects” aren’t going to go quietly.

Liberty lives in light

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Prophetic or pathetic? Grading the political projections of the year past

*What could be more Southwest Floridian than looking to the future through a crystal ball on the beach?*

Dec. 30, 2024 by David Silverberg

The end of 2024 has come and with it the usual lazy media roundups looking back at the events of the year.

Far more productive and important are looks ahead, although these are necessarily speculative—and they will be coming in these pages. But first, it seems sensible to see how well The Paradise Progressive was able to foresee the events of 2024, one of the most momentous years in American history.

In the past, we’ve graded our projections on an A through F scale. This year, though, we’ll grade some of the key ones as “prophetic” or “pathetic.”

From Part I – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead in politics in America

Prophetic: “It will be an interesting year but not a fun one. Indeed, it will be dangerous, stressful and frightening.”

Well, that was certainly true. Not much further explanation is needed there.

Prophetic: “…the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will determine whether America stays a democracy or becomes a dictatorship.”

While this remains to be seen, all indications are that America is heading in a dictatorial direction under Donald Trump.

Prophetic: “Throughout the year expect court rulings to drop like bombs, with Supreme Court rulings making the biggest explosions of all.”

This was certainly the case. In January, in a civil case first brought by writer E. Jean Carroll in 2023, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and ordered to pay $83.3 million in damages for defamation. On May 30 in the New York falsified business records case, Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies, a verdict that seemed a major blow to his presidential candidacy. However, in a decision announced on July 1 in the case of Trump vs. United States, the Supreme Court granted presidents—i.e., Trump—immunity for “official acts,” a decision that now hands him virtually unchecked power.

Prophetic: “If he wins he becomes dictator, he pardons everyone who committed a crime on his behalf, and he attains absolute, unrestricted power. If he loses, he forfeits his life, his fortune and his own freedom.”

The situation is certainly set up for this prophecy to be fulfilled and the likelihood is that he will evade justice altogether once he takes the presidency.

Pathetic: At the outset of the year, a movie called Civil War, which imagined armed domestic conflict in the United States, was being promoted and threatened to “encourage those thinking of civil war and political violence to actually take up arms and make this fiction real.”

Civil War was released in April and while garnering $126 million at the box office, essentially sank like a stone, making little to no impression across the country. In its 2023 promotions, it was unclear whether the movie’s villain was President Joe Biden or not. Once released, however, the movie posited a revolt against a president who had overstayed his two terms and was clearly Trump. But the movie’s fictional California forces and especially the “Florida coalition,” that took up arms in revolt was wildly off the mark. Overall, this movie didn’t seem to have any impact at all on the election or domestic politics.

Prophetic: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) presidential candidacy would be “do or die” in New Hampshire and “that is likely to fall on the ‘die’ side of the equation.”

Indeed, DeSantis dropped his bid on Jan. 21, just before the New Hampshire primary after falling steadily in the polls.

Prophetic: “The Republicans will be throwing everything they can at Biden, like a baseless impeachment proceeding that is unlikely to go anywhere, and attacking him through his son, Hunter.”

That certainly came to pass. Hunter Biden was found guilty of firearms-related felonies in June and pled guilty to tax charges in September. However, by then his father had dropped out of the race and Hunter’s crimes had no political impact. Ultimately, he was pardoned by his father on Dec. 1.

More relevantly, Republicans in the House of Representatives continued a feeble effort to impeach Biden. However, without an actual crime, this blatantly partisan payback scheme went nowhere.

Pathetic: “Biden would also likely crush Trump in any one-to-one debate.”

This was one of the biggest surprises of the year. On June 26, Biden proved weak, incapable and almost senile in his debate with Trump. It was probably the most consequential debate in American history and led to Biden dropping his re-election bid on July 21 in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.

Prophetic: “The possibility of one—or even both—of the candidates dropping out or dropping dead must be considered.”

Biden dropped out and Trump was nearly felled by an assassin’s bullet on July 13.

Prophetic: “If either man falls the entire political calculation will fundamentally change.”

That’s exactly what happened when Biden dropped out and Harris took his place.

Prophetic: “In Florida questions that loom for 2024 are: will pro-choicers get their amendment on the ballot? Can the DeSantis administration suppress it through the courts? Will Florida officials invalidate the signatures? And if it is on the ballot, will it receive the 60 percent approval from voters to pass?”

Pro-choicers got Amendment 4 guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion on the ballot and sure enough, the DeSantis administration tried to suppress it through the courts and invalidate the signatures. Ultimately, it failed to get the 60 percent of votes needed to pass.

From: “Part II – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead abroad

Prophetic: On the war in Ukraine, “there’s no end in sight right now and the war seems set to continue in its current state for at least another year.”

Indeed, the war continues and The Paradise Progressive was further prophetic when it noted that as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin was alive, “the course of Russian policy and warmaking will likely remain as it has since the invasion.”

Prophetic: On the war in Gaza: “All Hamas has to do in the year ahead to win its war is simply survive since [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu set the Israeli war goal as destroying it. Israel seems unlikely to achieve its goal before the year is out.”

Even with the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas fights on and the war in Gaza is active. But as was also predicted: “If all other factors remain the same Netanyahu will continue Israel’s current course no matter how long it takes or what it costs in blood, treasure, or prestige.” That was certainly prophetic.

Prophetic: Continuation of the war meant the possibility that “yet another front opens or a third major war suddenly breaks out somewhere during the year.”

Israel pre-emptively opened another front against Hezbollah in Lebanon and conducted a virtually separate war there. Then, suddenly in December, in Syria the regime of President Bashar al Assad fell to rebels.

Pathetic: “Given the tensions, stakes and desperation in so many theaters there will undoubtedly be terror and mass casualty events in the United States this year, some of them severe.”

This did not come to pass, in large part thanks to the vigilance and professionalism of federal counter-terror agencies and personnel.

Prophetic: “There may be efforts to stop voting or scare people away from polling places.”

This came true when 67 bomb threats were called in to polling places in 19 counties in five battleground states, all of them in mostly Democratic counties. It was a tactic that has caused critics to question whether these were deliberate efforts by a foreign power to skew the voting results.

Prophetic: “Some lone shooters, random crazies and violent extremists will get through.”

That’s what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, although Ryan Wesley Routh’s staking out of a sniper position on the Trump golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sept. 15 was caught before any shots were fired.

Prophetic: “As Russia has interfered in US elections ever since 2016, so it can be expected to attempt to interfere in the 2024 election.”

As noted previously, there are suspicions of Russian interference in the election and the Putin government seemed to reference these in November when Nikolai Patrushev, a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council told a Russian newspaper that “To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”

However, with Trump declared the winner, the disbanding of the cases against him and the dropping of investigations by prosecutor Jack Smith, the American people may never know the full extent and nature of Russian intervention in America’s 2024 election—and the public will certainly not learn it from any official body of the US government under a Trump administration.

Pathetic: “Migrant flows to the US southern border are already at record levels. They will likely skyrocket as the year proceeds.”

Instead, the exact opposite occurred; border apprehensions and encounters with US authorities fell sharply. As a Pew Research Center analysis put it on Oct. 1: “After reaching a record high at the end of 2023, the monthly number of U.S. Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico has plummeted so far in 2024.”

According to the Pew analysis, the Border Patrol recorded 58,038 encounters with migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in August 2024, a 77 percent decline from 249,741 encounters in December 2023, the most ever recorded in a single month.

And why this sudden plummet in crossings and encounters? “The decline in encounters has come amid policy changes on both sides of the border,” stated Pew. “Authorities in Mexico have stepped up enforcement to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S. border. And U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order in June that makes it much more difficult for migrants who enter the U.S. without legal permission to seek asylum and remain in the country.”

So Biden administration changes made a big difference in border crossings but not in time or with the fanfare to stave off wild Republican charges that the border was “open” and unpoliced.

Prophetic: “…The surge at the border will no doubt be a major headache and vulnerability for Biden this year.”

While there was no surge, it was still a headache—but largely because Trump prevented consideration and passage of a bipartisan border security bill that addressed many of the problems. As the article predicted, he and Republicans “can be expected to exploit the situation to the full,” which they did.

Prophetic: “There is virtually no prospect for any real progress being made on immigration or border security in 2024.” Further, “the prospects for the year ahead are for Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants to keep getting uglier, Republican exploitation of the situation to increase and get more apocalyptic, numbers of migrants and their suffering at the border to keep growing, strains on border security mechanisms to keep expanding and the rewards of finding practical consensus solutions to stay elusive.”

That proved absolutely prophetic.

From: “Part III – A democracy, if you can keep it: Collier County, Fla., and the war on competence”

Collier County, Fla., faced critical elections for its Board of Commissioners and School Board in 2024.

But the biggest surprise came in June when Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the outspokenly conservative and pro-Trump farmer, grocer, activist and major Collier County power broker, missed the deadline to file his candidacy papers for State Committeeman and lost his official position on the Collier County Republican Executive Committee. The Paradise Progressive certainly did not foresee that.

Prophetic: “So going into 2024, Collier County voters are faced with seasoned candidates with experience, knowledge and proven competence in their fields or unseasoned MAGA amateurs running on grievances, conspiracies and blind belief.”

Ironically enough, in the Aug. 20 party primary, Collier County Republicans rejected, as one piece of campaign literature put it, “angry, inexperienced individuals” for critical positions in county government and instead voted for seasoned, proven candidates. In particular, Melissa Blazier retained her position as Supervisor of Elections, despite two challengers.

At least in this corner of Florida, as prophetically predicted, the result was “a county that is run on behalf of its residents with effectiveness, efficiency and integrity.”

Summing up

By and large, when it came to broad trends, The Paradise Progressive’s projections for 2024 were strikingly prophetic.

But lest that seem too self-congratulatory, it must be pointed out that it made no firm predictions on outcomes: it never stated who would win at the ballot box, whether locally or nationally, or which side would win the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, or how the Florida constitutional amendments would turn out.

Further, it did not foresee the dramatic, abrupt turns of the year in domestic politics: Biden’s dropping out; Trump’s near-assassination; the Harris candidacy.

Locally, some of the biggest unforeseen developments were Alfie Oakes’ disqualification from Republican Party candidacy; the massive search of his properties by federal law enforcement agencies on Nov. 7; and, in Lee County, the allegations and investigation into corruption by Sheriff Carmine Marceno.

The consequences from these events will play out in 2025.

Indeed, what will 2025 bring the nation, the world and especially Southwest Florida? Informed and humbled by its record from 2024, The Paradise Progressive will be looking ahead at likely developments in days to come.

And that, at least, is a prophecy on which you can count.

Liberty lives in light

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Part II – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead abroad

*America will have to navigate stormy waters overseas in the coming year. (Photo: Hai Thinh)*

Jan 2, 2024 by David Silverberg

This year, American politics will not be happening in a vacuum; they will be profoundly affected by events and actors overseas.

Of course, American elections never really occur in isolation; they’re always impacted by the rest of the world. However, since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has rarely been a more volatile, dangerous and, indeed, explosive international situation. This is an election that will truly determine the fate of the world.

This year Americans will feel foreign influences at home like never before, whether they’re aware of them or not, even in a place as obscure and far from centers of power as Southwest Florida.

What are Americans likely to experience from abroad as the year proceeds to its political climax on Election Day, Nov. 5?

The arsenal of democracy

*President Franklin Roosevelt gives his “Arsenal of Democracy” address.*

On Dec. 29, 1940, President Franklin Roosevelt gave a radio speech to the American people. “This is not a fireside chat on war,” he said at the outset. “It is a talk on national security.”

He reviewed the threat to the world of Nazi and Fascist conquest. He argued that the United States must support Britain’s resistance to Adolf Hitler and that Americans could not be complacent behind two great oceans.

Toward the end of the talk he said, “We must be the great arsenal of democracy. For us this is an emergency as serious as war itself. We must apply ourselves to our task with the same resolution, the same sense of urgency, the same spirit of patriotism and sacrifice as we would show were we at war.”

Today the exact same speech could be given with the same emphasis, just substituting “Russia” for “Germany,” “Putin” for “Hitler” and “terrorism” for “Fascism.”

There are other similarities to today and Roosevelt noted them in a paragraph in his speech, which deserves full quotation:

“Let us no longer blind ourselves to the undeniable fact that the evil forces which have crushed and undermined and corrupted so many others are already within our own gates. Your government knows much about them and every day is ferreting them out. Their secret emissaries are active in our own and in neighboring countries. They seek to stir up suspicion and dissension, to cause internal strife. They try to turn capital against labor, and vice versa. They try to reawaken long slumbering racial and religious enmities which should have no place in this country. They are active in every group that promotes intolerance. They exploit for their own ends our own natural abhorrence of war. These trouble-breeders have but one purpose. It is to divide our people, to divide them into hostile groups and to destroy our unity and shatter our will to defend ourselves.”

Now, as then, these “trouble-breeders” are active in America, only now they’re on social media and have own media networks and one broadcast network in particular. They will be extraordinarily active in this critical year.

America remains not only the arsenal of democracy but the fulcrum of world politics, the indispensable nation without which rule-based democracy cannot exist. As such it is the focus of every enemy of democracy and every would-be conqueror who would pull it from its pedestal. Every American’s television, computer, smart phone, printed page and any other form of communication is a target.

However, their efforts are likely to also likely to be “kinetic,” including terrorism, sabotage and physical violence.

The war fronts

The course of the year and the future is being shaped by war, which is the most uncertain of all human endeavors. America’s tomorrow is being forged on distant battlefields today.

The war in Ukraine will determine whether the United States remains a superpower, whether the Ukrainian people remain independent and democratic, and whether NATO and the West remain strong. Alternatively, if America, Ukraine and the West fail, a despotic Russia will rebuild an empire of fear and oppression, spread it to Europe and reduce the United States to a vassal.

As the year dawns, neither side can retreat. For Ukraine the struggle is an existential one: if Ukraine loses it ceases to exist. The same is true for Russian President Vladimir Putin: if Russia loses he ceases to exist. As a result there’s no end in sight right now and the war seems set to continue in its current state for at least another year.

Putin is 71 years old. If he dies or is killed during the course of the year the entire equation will change. There were strong rumors in October that he suffered a heart attack. However, he reappeared in public. As long as he is alive the course of Russian policy and warmaking will likely remain as it has since the invasion a year and ten months ago. His opponent, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 45, has to stay alive too—but the Ukrainian war effort is less dependent on the will of a single man.

The war in Gaza will determine whether the United States remains a vital participant in the future of the Middle East, whether Israel and its neighbors will ever achieve peace, whether the people of Gaza will survive, whether Iran and its allies will dominate the region and whether the United States can sustain a two-front defense of the West and the democracies.

In its first phase Hamas won its war. Its Oct. 7 attack achieved strategic surprise, punctured the image of Israeli dominance and invulnerability and especially humiliated the vaunted Mossad intelligence agency. It ended moves toward Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab states. It forced Israel to deal with Hamas as a government in order to negotiate for captured hostages. It stirred up global antipathy to Israel and intensified worldwide anti-Semitism. It also delivered a personal blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose entire life was built on fighting terrorism.

For Russia and Iran, it opened a new front against the United States and distracted world attention away from Putin’s aggression. It put the United States on the defensive in justifying the overwhelming Israeli response. It forced choices in American military production capabilities, diverting them away from Ukraine. Despite the atrocities committed by its fighters (warning: this video is extremely graphic), Hamas successfully prompted an overwhelming and often indiscriminate Israeli response, costing it international support and leading to condemnation.

All Hamas has to do in the year ahead to win its war is simply survive since Netanyahu set the Israeli war goal as destroying it. Israel seems unlikely to achieve its goal before the year is out.

But Netanyahu is one of the most extraordinarily stubborn and determined human beings on his planet. He is absolutely focused on destroying Hamas to the exclusion of all other considerations. If all other factors remain the same he will continue Israel’s current course no matter how long it takes or what it costs in blood, treasure, or prestige.

That will mean more protests, more isolation of the United States and Israel and more casualties and hardship for civilian Gazans at the hands of both Hamas and Israel. It will mean more mobilization for the enemies of the US and Israel and intensified attacks and challenges on widely disparate and diverse battlefields on land, at sea and in the air. The Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are just the start.

It may also mean that yet another front opens or a third major war suddenly breaks out somewhere during the year.

For everyday Americans it will mean something else as well: the increased likelihood of terrorism.

“Blinking red lights everywhere”

*FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Dec. 5, 2023. (Image: CSPAN)*

On Dec. 5, Christopher Wray, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. He was asked if he saw the kind of “blinking red lights” that were going off before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

“What I would say that is unique about the environment that we’re in right now in my career is that while there may have been times over the years where individual threats could have been higher here or there than where they may be right now, I’ve never seen a time where all the threats or so many of the threats are all elevated, all at exactly the same time,” answered Wray. “I see blinking red lights everywhere.”

Following the Hamas attack on Israel, said Wray, a “veritable rogue’s gallery of foreign terrorists” called for attacks on the United States and “the threat level has gone to a whole other level since Oct. 7.”

Sure enough, on Dec. 14, police in Denmark, Holland and Germany announced they had foiled a Hamas terror plot in their countries.

This is only the beginning. Given the tensions, stakes and desperation in so many theaters there will undoubtedly be terror and mass casualty events in the United States this year, some of them severe. What’s more, the intensity, stress and threats—and likely, number of events—will escalate as Election Day draws closer. There may be efforts to stop voting or scare people away from polling places.

The organized terror plots by groups from abroad such as Hamas or countries like Iran can often be foiled by good intelligence and detective work. But there is a significant domestic terror threat as well that simply cannot be anticipated. Some lone shooters, random crazies and violent extremists will get through.

There’s no solution to this at street level. Americans will just have to be alert, cautious and aware of their surroundings at all times, especially in large gatherings of any nature. Never has the old adage, “if you see something, say something” been more applicable.

But Americans will also need to show courage and calm and carry on. The saying “freedom isn’t free” is usually used in reference to military sacrifices. This year as Americans carry on their daily lives and fulfil their civic duties, they will have to keep in mind that their rights and freedom come with a cost in vigilance and potential danger but that it’s worth facing.

“Carefully, accurately, surgically”

*Yevgeny Prigozhin in uniform from Rostov-on-Don in a June 24, 2023 video he released in the midst of his mutiny.*

On Nov. 7, 2022 Yevgeny Prigozhin posted comments on the Russian equivalent of Facebook.

It was the day before the US midterm elections. “We have interfered [in US elections], we are interfering and we will continue to interfere,” he boasted. “Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”

Prigozhin, known as Putin’s chef and close counselor, was head of the Wagner Group mercenaries. He was widely believed in Western intelligence circles to be mastermind of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election that put Donald Trump in the White House. He oversaw troll farms that flooded American social media with divisive and disruptive messages and promoted Trump’s candidacy. His operatives organized pro-Trump rallies and posed as Trump operatives and spread disinformation. His hackers attempted to penetrate election offices.

Much of this activity took place in Florida, according to the 2019 report issued by retired FBI director Robert Mueller.

Prigozhin had the temerity to threaten Putin when he led a mutiny last June. He got his reward in August when a plane he was riding in crashed in Russia, killing him and his closest associates.

As Russia has interfered in US elections ever since 2016, so it can be expected to attempt to interfere in the 2024 election—and probably already is doing so. Prigozhin will not be at the helm so the style will be different but he may have already been replaced by someone more capable.

With so much at stake, with active combat around the world, all of America’s enemies can be expected to try to determine the outcome of the US election. This will not only take the form of social media interference and disinformation, it will also likely involve direct efforts to skew vote counts and penetrate election offices.

It may also include old-fashioned direct corruption, blackmail and bribery, subverting elected and appointed officials and making covert contributions to specific election campaigns at all levels of government. It will likely include Russian support for Trump’s candidacy, given his admiration for Putin and his antipathy toward Ukraine.

There is no doubt that Russia will be covertly promoting anti-Ukraine sentiment among American voters. Opposition to Ukraine among Republican members of Congress is already playing into Putin’s hands.

“Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us,” Olga Skabeeva, a Russian TV personality on state TV said when Republican members of Congress blocked an aid package to Ukraine and Israel just before the December recess.

Dmitry Drobnitsky, a Russian American affairs analyst, added: “The downfall of Ukraine means the downfall of Biden! Two birds with one stone.”

As Americans sort through their social media feeds and information from media of all sorts this year, they should be aware that they are targets of hostile powers pursuing their own agendas. As with the threat of terrorism, watchfulness and awareness will be essential. When it comes to information, especially outrageous, incendiary and extreme “news” items, healthy skepticism, vigilance and verification of sources will be critical to staying in touch with reality.

The border and immigration conundrums

Migrant flows to the US southern border are already at record levels. They will likely skyrocket as the year proceeds.

Why? Because people hoping to reach the United States are very well aware of the American political situation. This year may represent their last, best chance to migrate to the United States and enter in an orderly, legal way. They may be poor and desperate but they’re not stupid.

Also, America’s opponents will want to put as much pressure on the administration as possible, so there may be an element of foreign agitation in promoting northward migration.

Then there are the factors that are driving a northward migration around the world: poverty, war, oppression, fear, and the ravages of climate change. At the same time there are the attractions: hope, freedom, promise and the chance for a better life.

But the surge at the border will no doubt be a major headache and vulnerability for Biden this year. He is constrained in his response by existing law and established procedures, while Trump and the Republicans have no such constraints and don’t have to offer solutions that actually work. They already are and can be expected to exploit the situation to the full.

If Biden wins, US immigration and border policy will continue to function on systematic, legal principles and will likely improve with time and additional resources.

But by contrast, Trump continues denouncing immigrants in purely racial terms as he has done since he began campaigning for president in 2015. “They’re poisoning the blood of our country. That’s what they’ve done,” Trump said of them during a rally in New Hampshire on Dec. 16. His solutions embody hatred, prejudice and rage.

In the notorious Project 2025 plan for governing after his election, Trump supporters envision reshaping government to give Trump unconstrained power. Their ideas include building large concentration camps and conducting mass raids and roundups of undocumented migrants. During Trump’s presidency migrant families were separated and conditions for migrants declined precipitously. Treatment is likely to become even more draconian if he’s re-elected and assumes dictatorial powers. And he would no doubt revive plans to build a massive, ineffective and exorbitantly expensive wall along the US southern border.

All this creates an incentive for migrants to get to the United States in 2024 while they still have a reasonable chance of entering.

That there is stress at the border is undeniable. But the issue has been so politicized and distorted that it’s difficult to get an accurate, objective assessment of the situation.

Trump and Republican politicians know that alarm about migrants polls well and agitates the base. However, they’ve so overhyped the situation that their more extreme allegations are suspect. They’ve charged that the border under the Biden administration is “open,” meaning that there are no controls at all. In fact there is a structure and enforcement mechanism to deal with asylum seekers and attempted crossers both legal and illegal —but it’s under strain.

Govs. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and Greg Abbott (R-Texas) in the past year used transports of migrants to places like Martha’s Vineyard and Washington, DC as political stunts to score publicity points while in fact making virtually no difference in coping with migrant flows.

Will these stunts continue in the new year? They may, but there is also the possibility that they’ll die down. With Trump the Republican nominee there’s no reason to seek the kind of publicity that the migrant flights and buses brought to the two men, who were competing for the nomination. Also, with Trump and Republicans wooing Hispanic voters, these kinds of expensive antics may be counterproductive.

Rational analysts of all persuasions have long agreed that what is needed is comprehensive immigration reform. Major bipartisan attempts were made in Congress in 2007 and 2014, both of which were stymied by recalcitrant anti-immigration politicians.

Republicans in the House passed a Secure the Border Act last year, one of their only legislative successes. The bill was a partisan codification of Trumpist border measures and went nowhere in the Senate.

There is virtually no prospect for any real progress being made on immigration or border security in 2024. Congressional Republicans are following an entirely Trumpist playbook, while Trump is advocating a Hitlerian approach to immigration. Whatever solutions Biden proposes or measures he takes will be attacked by Republicans, whose real interest is in maintaining the status quo so that they can keep using the issue to flay the administration.

Another potential reason for Trump to exploit the border situation has been floated by Joyce Vance, an attorney who served as the United States attorney for the Northern District of Alabama during the Obama administration. After examining Trump’s social media postings, Vance concluded: “Trump is preparing to claim the 2024 election was stolen from him when he loses” and will blame the loss on voting by undocumented migrants allegedly allowed into the country by the Biden administration and the Democratic Party.

While there’s no way to know in advance if this will happen, and new immigrants won’t be eligible to vote in this election, it would certainly be in keeping with Trump’s modus operandi of lying and discrediting realities he doesn’t like.

So the prospects for the year ahead are for Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants to keep getting uglier, Republican exploitation of the situation to increase and get more apocalyptic, numbers of migrants and their suffering at the border to keep growing, strains on border security mechanisms to keep expanding and the rewards of finding practical consensus solutions to stay elusive. It’s not a formula for success and until there’s comprehensive immigration reform it’s a situation that will not be solved any time soon.

Meanwhile, in Florida specifically, DeSantis’ anti-immigrant rhetoric from the campaign and the anti-immigrant measures that the legislature passed in the last session will continue to dry up the state’s workforce, cripple its businesses and hurt its economy, resulting in higher prices and lower productivity.

Any kind of rational progress on these issues will have to wait until 2025. If Democrats take both the House and Senate, there may be the start of bipartisan work toward a sensible solution as there was in 2007 and 2014.

And yet, there’s hope

In his 1940 “Arsenal of Democracy” talk, Roosevelt said that he had received many telegrams (anyone remember those?) suggesting what he should discuss on the radio.

He singled out one in particular: “The gist of that telegram was: ‘Please, Mr. President, don’t frighten us by telling us the facts.’” Roosevelt decided to ignore that plea. “Frankly and definitely there is danger ahead — danger against which we must prepare,” he said. “But we well know that we cannot escape danger, or the fear of danger, by crawling into bed and pulling the covers over our heads.”

It is startling to read the text of that speech now. The challenges of that time were so similar to those of today.

And the solutions that Roosevelt proposed then apply today as well.

“We have no excuse for defeatism,” he said. “We have every good reason for hope—hope for peace, yes, and hope for the defense of our civilization and for the building of a better civilization in the future. I have the profound conviction that the American people are now determined to put forth a mightier effort than they have ever yet made to increase our production of all the implements of defense, to meet the threat to our democratic faith.”

Eighty-four years ago, Americans heeded that call. They backed Britain, put forth the effort, and when war came to them, they won it.

They can do it again.

Despite all the dangers and threats enumerated above—and in particular the domestic danger of a Trump dictatorship—there is another way that events can all play out this year.

In this scenario Americans rally, they become active, they understand what’s at stake and they decide to commit to defending democracy at home and abroad. Their efforts pay off: Trump and Trumpism are crushed decisively in every state and so overwhelmingly that his inevitable lies about a stolen election and accusations of fraud are seen for the desperate delusions they are; the law is upheld; the guilty are punished; Ukraine is supported; Putin is defeated; terrorism stopped; and America returns to civility and constitutionalism.

This is a real, possible outcome.

But, of course, it’s an outcome that people have to want and work to achieve.

The year lies before us. Roosevelt said it so well in closing his speech: “As President of the United States, I call for that national effort. I call for it in the name of this nation which we love and honor and which we are privileged and proud to serve. I call upon our people with absolute confidence that our common cause will greatly succeed.”

The American people did it then and they can do it now.

*There can be calm after a storm. (Photo: Author)*

________________________

Coming next, Part III – A democracy, if you can keep it: Collier County, Fla., and the war on competence

In case you missed it:

Part I – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead in politics in America

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Southwest Florida and entire state likely to feel labor, economic woes from anti-immigration measures

*Farm laborers load freshly picked produce. (Photo: Coalition of Immokalee Workers)*

May 17, 2023 by David Silverberg

A pair of recently-passed anti-immigration and border restriction measures appear set to do significant economic and labor damage to Southwest Florida.

At the state level, on Wednesday, May 10 Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed Senate Bill 1718 into law, imposing new restrictions on immigration in Florida. At a Fort Myers news conference last Friday, May 12, he stated: “The border should be shut down. I mean, this is ridiculous what’s going on. You shut it down. You do need to construct a wall.”

At the national level, Southwest Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.) led the Republican effort in the US House of Representatives to put new restrictions on immigration and revive the building of former President Donald Trump’s proposed border wall.

That measure, the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (House Resolution (HR) 2), passed in the House last Thursday, May 11, by a narrow vote of 219 to 213.

However, the bill is unlikely to make any headway in the Democratic-dominated Senate and President Joe Biden has promised to veto it.

(A note on terminology for this article: By definition, an “immigrant” is a person who has entered and/or settled in a country legally. All immigrants are, ipso facto, “legal” and technically there is no such thing as an “illegal immigrant” or “illegal immigration.” By contrast, a “migrant” is someone who is migrating from one place to another, whether or not over international borders. An “undocumented migrant” is someone who lacks proper documentation and permissions to travel or settle in a place. An “alien” is someone from another country, whether traveling or in residence, documented or not.)

State restrictions

According to its official summary, Florida’s new state law restricting immigration does the following (the tense has been altered to reflect its passage):

“Prohibits counties and municipalities, respectively, from providing funds to any person, entity, or organization to issue identification documents to an individual who does not provide proof of lawful presence in the United States; specifies that certain driver licenses and permits issued by other states exclusively to unauthorized immigrants are not valid in this state; requires certain hospitals to collect patient immigration status data information on admission or registration forms; requires the Department of Economic Opportunity to enter a certain order and require repayment of certain economic development incentives if the department finds or is notified that an employer has knowingly employed an unauthorized alien without verifying the employment eligibility of such person, etc.”

It appropriates $12 million to an Unauthorized Alien Transportation Program to transport migrants out of Florida.

The bill was introduced by state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia (R-11- Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties) on March 7 and passed 27 to 10 on April 28. When considered in the state House, 17 amendments to alter it were all defeated and it passed on May 2 by a vote of 83 to 36.

Warning that there would be “huge, huge problems” when the pandemic-restrictive Title 42 lapsed, DeSantis said, “You are going to see a massive surge of illegal aliens, you have a duty to ensure that these borders are secure. This is a huge disaster on our hands,” when he signed the bill in Jacksonville on May 10. Ingoglia called it “the strongest state-led anti-illegal immigration bill ever brought forth.”

“Ron DeSantis’ legacy will forever be rooted in the fact that as the governor of the state of Florida, he signed into law the most brutal, inhumane, and anti-American immigration legislation that we’ve seen in the last 30 years of U.S. History,” Andrea Mercado, director of Florida Rising, a state voting rights organization, declared in a written statement. “It is a life-threatening, intimidating, and dangerous political stunt.”

The Hispanic Leadership Fund, a pro-business group based in Washington, DC, also slammed the new law, stating it “has a very serious potential to promote racial profiling and infringe on the rights of not just immigrants, but American citizens and their families,” according to Mario Lopez, the organization’s president.

The law takes effect on July 1.

The federal bill

On the national level, HR 2 does the following:

requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to resume activities to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border;
provides statutory authorization for Operation Stonegarden, which provides grants to law enforcement agencies for certain border security operations;
prohibits DHS from processing the entry of non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) arriving between ports of entry;
limits asylum eligibility to non-U.S. nationals who arrive in the United States at a port of entry;
authorizes the removal of a non-US national to a country other than that individual’s country of nationality or last lawful habitual residence, whereas currently this type of removal may only be to a country that has an agreement with the United States for such removal;
expands the types of crimes that may make an individual ineligible for asylum, such as a conviction for driving while intoxicated causing another person’s serious bodily injury or death;
authorizes DHS to suspend the introduction of certain non-US nationals at an international border if DHS determines that the suspension is necessary to achieve operational control of that border;
prohibits states from imposing licensing requirements on immigration detention facilities used to detain minors;
authorizes immigration officers to permit an unaccompanied alien child to withdraw their application for admission into the United States even if the child is unable to make an independent decision to withdraw the application;
imposes additional penalties for overstaying a visa; and
requires DHS to create an electronic employment eligibility confirmation system modeled after the E-Verify system and requires all employers to use the system.

“Border security is national security,” tweeted Diaz-Balart after its passage. “[House Republicans] passed my bill HR2 to take back control of the border while the Biden Admin keeps saying the border is secure. Biden admin needs to get its head out of the sand.”

On May 2, the National Migration Forum, a pro-immigration advocacy group, in an extensive analysis of the bill, called it “an expansive proposal [that] represents an enforcement-only approach to migration-related challenges at the United States-Mexico border and beyond.”

It continued: “In practice, the bill package would severely restrict the right to seek asylum in the US, curtail other existing lawful pathways, place unnecessary pressure on border communities, intensify labor shortages faced by small businesses and essential industries, establish new criminal penalties, and make other significant changes to U.S. immigration law.”

A date for consideration of HR 2 by the Senate had not been set as of this writing.

Impacts on Southwest Florida

While much of the population of Southwest Florida resides on the coast, most of the region’s land is either protected from development or used for agriculture. The agricultural sector is heavily dependent on seasonal migrant labor. The new state restrictions will undoubtedly affect Southwest Florida’s economy, especially in agriculture, construction, hospitality, tourism and services.

When it comes to agriculture, major local crops include tomatoes, strawberries, melons and citrus. Ranching and livestock breeding are also part of the mix. An estimated 6,626 people were employed in Southwest Florida agriculture, according to the US Census as quoted by Florida Gulf Coast University’s 2022 Agriculture Southwest Florida Economic Almanac Series. Most field workers are migrants, whether documented or not, and work seasonally, depending on the crop.

“Everybody is in a panic because nobody knows what’s going to happen,” immigration attorney Gina Fraga told WPTV in Palm Beach.

Denise Negron, the executive director of the Farmworker Coordinator Council of Palm Beach County, told the TV station: “I’ve been hearing that probably they will not be sending their kids to school, and they are afraid to go to work, and it’s sad,” she said.

The stresses on the agricultural labor force come on the heels of the devastation to crops and the agriculture industry in the area caused by Hurricane Ian. Directly in the storm’s path were roughly 375,000 acres of citrus; over 200,000 acres of vegetables; more than 180,000 acres of hay; as well as 95,000 acres of other field crops, like sugarcane, cotton, and peanuts, according to Growing Produce, an industry website.

One local voice calling for a balance between border security, immigration reform and agribusiness is the area’s former congressman, Francis Rooney, a Republican conservative.

“Congress must balance the need for border security with the need for workers. Secure the border, fix our visa and asylum systems, and finally solve the immigration issue instead of using it as a political football,” he tweeted on May 11.

In contrast, the sitting member of Congress representing coastal Lee and Collier counties, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), has been relentlessly on the attack about border security, hammering Republican talking points and raising money for his own reelection, without addressing the impact on the district.

“Democrats ALWAYS wanted this massive surge at the border with no checks or balances AT ALL,” he tweeted on Monday, May 15. “What’s going on now is due to Biden’s recklessness & desire to end all Trump policies that ACTUALLY secured our border. Now they’re scrambling to find fixes to the problem Biden created.”

The Coalition of Immokalee Workers, a local farm labor advocacy group, put out a statement on HB 1718 that goes into detail about its possible effects on both labor and the economy. It merits quotation in full:

“We stand firmly against SB 1718, and against the fear, division, and economic hardship it will bring to Florida. The malicious provision requiring public hospitals to ask for immigration status will cruelly discourage people in need of medical attention, including young children, from seeking the care they need. The transportation provision will criminalize everyday Floridians – including travel team coaches and commercial bus drivers, parent chaperones on field trips, and small businesses keeping the state’s fragile economy running – for innocently traveling in and out of our state. The law is inhumane, impossible to fairly enforce, and leaves our communities less safe and more divided than ever.

“When it comes to the law’s inevitable economic impact, lawmakers in Tallahassee have missed critical lessons from recent history. One need only look to the agricultural fields in Georgia, Alabama, and Arizona in 2010 and 2011, full of rotting peaches, peppers, and watermelons, to see the disastrous impact of anti-immigrant legislation on labor supply and tourism. In addition to the contribution immigrants make to our state’s economy every single day, which is easily measurable in ever-rising labor productivity and millions of tax dollars, the authors of this bill also entirely neglect the immeasurable gifts of immigrant families in our schools, our sanctuaries of faith, and our communities everywhere across our state.”

There has been discussion of boycotts of Florida, especially by truckers, particularly in Hispanic social media, although no protests or boycotts have been formally announced by established organizations.

Commentary: Putting the border in perspective

Southwest Florida has a direct stake in the situation on the US southwestern border and US immigration policy but the situation has been overly hyped and politicized to the point where a clear picture is not being presented to the public.

The Republican mantra is that the border is “open,” meaning completely uncontrolled and unregulated. That is simply not true. The United States has considerable controls both at its ports of entry and between them and is adding to them by surging its own resources.

There are “open” borders around the world and one of the most open used to be in Mexico’s south, where there were virtually no controls between Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. People would simply cross the river marking the boundary with Mexico on rafts, while truckers on the bridge crossing the river would bribe guards to let unexamined loads go through. That border has now been tightened up, thanks to US-Mexican agreements.

*Migrants from Latin America cross into Mexico on rafts during a migration surge in the mid-2010s. (Photo: Author’s collection)*

The purpose of rational border control is to facilitate legitimate trade and travel and keep illegal goods and unauthorized people out. US trade with Mexico was worth $614.5 billion in 2019, a commercial flow that neither the United States or Mexico want to cut off, which is what would happen if DeSantis had his way and closed the border.

While tensions between the United States and Mexico date back to Mexico’s independence in 1821, they were deliberately ratcheted up by Donald Trump during his candidacy in 2015.

In his very first speech as a candidate he accused Mexicans of “sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” He painted a picture that has persisted to this day and has not changed for his followers or in the minds of millions of Americans.

Trump’s solution was a brick and mortar wall along the US-Mexican border, which he proved unable to build during his time as president, even with a Republican-controlled Congress. The sections that were erected are already crumbling and corroding.

However, the mirage of a completely sealed, impermeable, walled border through which not a molecule passes continues to mesmerize MAGAs, Republican lawmakers as well as Trump, DeSantis and Diaz-Balart (whose parents came to the United States as refugees from Castro’s Cuba and whose aunt was Fidel Castro’s first wife). This delusional vision is being promoted in HR2 and on the campaign trail as candidates jostle for the 2024 presidential nomination.

What is happening at the border with Mexico is a surge of migrants seeking asylum that has overwhelmed many existing border resources. It needs to be pointed out, though, that asylum seekers are not migrants attempting to cross the border illegally or covertly. They are applying for asylum through procedures the United States has established. When Title 42 ended, contrary to the apocalypse that was feared, the number of applicants dropped by half and applicants were required to apply through an online application or face stiff penalties.

Asylum-seekers are now being processed and sent around the country for adjudication. Illegal border crossers are facing five-year penalties if caught.

Ultimately, the issues of border security and immigration are inextricably intertwined. Until there is comprehensive immigration reform, including a rational guest worker program that works for both labor and business, the crisis will continue. The US Congress came very close to bipartisan agreement on reforms in 2007 and 2013 but both failed in the face of intransigent opposition. The day may come when another effort is made.

The current surge needs to be put into context because the United States is not unique. About 2.3 percent of the world’s population—184 million people, including 37 million refugees—live outside their country of nationality, according to the World Bank.

There is a global south-to-north movement of people seeking better lives, simple refuge, or fleeing climate change and life-threatening situations. In an effort to enter Europe, waves of African migrants have attempted to overwhelm the border controls of the two remaining Spanish possessions in North Africa, the cities of Ceuta and Melilla. In the Mediterranean Sea, migrants from the Middle East and northern Africa have set out on rickety, overcrowded boats to reach Spain, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Malta. In Asia, poverty in Bangladesh and oppression in Myanmar have led people to flee those countries. Wars in Ukraine, Syria, and Sudan have led to massive refugee flows that directly impact neighboring countries, which try to cope as best they can while providing humanitarian aid.

Around the world, people are on the move toward better lives, greater freedom and simple safety. The United States is no exception.

What is complicating the American situation is the continuing MAGA view of migrants as criminals and rapists threatening the white population physically, politically and demographically.

It also reflects a deliberate attack on American confidence in the power of rationality and the strength of American values. In the past, Americans had confidence that their democracy, their values and their freedoms were so compelling that they could absorb and convert immigrants into loyal, productive Americans. Now, they want to exclude them on the basis of race and national origin. They no longer believe that America is an idea all can embrace; to them it’s a club that should exclude everyone but themselves.

In the short term, Florida’s attempted exclusion of immigrants will work to its detriment and at a cost to its economy and businesses. It is only with time that it will learn just how deep, painful and costly it will prove—and soon, Southwest Florida will be among the first regions to feel those effects.

________________

Editor’s note: From 2004 to 2012 the author served as editor of the magazine Homeland Security Today, which extensively covered border security and policy. A three-part series on Mexico’s drug cartel wars, their history and causes that he conceived, organized and edited, “Savage Struggle on the Border,” won the 2010 National Gold Award for Best Feature Series from the American Society of Business Publication Editors. In 2014 he was also founding editor of the BorderNewsNetwork.com, an online effort to cover news of all the world’s borders.

A *US Border Patrol agent examines a shipment of jalapeno peppers destined for the United States for contraband and contamination. (Photo: CBP)*

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The Donalds Dossier: No rescue for Americans, defending the filibuster and fixating on the border

Rep. Byron Donalds calls for removing Capitol barriers and rebuilding them on the border. (Image: Office of Rep. Byron Donalds)

92 days Rep. Byron Donalds has been in office

582 days until Election Day 2022

April 5, 2021 by David Silverberg

Having tried and failed to stop President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan from assisting Americans to recover from the pandemic and receive vaccines, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) has now turned his fire against the American Jobs Plan intended to restore America’s infrastructure.

Additionally, in the past month Donalds attempted to play the race card against Biden’s opposition to Georgia’s voter suppression law and defended the Senate filibuster. Along with the rest of the Republican caucus in Congress, he tried to politically exploit the immigration influx at the southern border and opposed a bipartisan solution to farm labor needs and the agricultural workforce.

All of these activities were rhetorical; legislatively, Donalds proposed a widely ignored alternative to the American Rescue Plan. His proposal to protect Southwest Florida from interruptions in harmful algal bloom monitoring remains in committee.

In terms of serving his district, Donalds held a series of photo opportunities to prove that he has not forgotten Southwest Florida. However, he held no town halls or public events allowing constituents unrestricted access or unfiltered questions of his policies or positions. His media appearances were only with right-wing media outlets where he did not face skeptical or challenging questions.

Opposing rescue and jobs

In some rare and remarkable reporting covering local governance, yesterday, April 4, five reporters from the Naples Daily News published details of the benefits that Southwest Florida cities and counties will receive from the American Rescue Plan—and they are significant.

The article, “American Rescue Plan to bring more than $300M to Southwest Florida,” investigated the amounts that local jurisdictions will be receiving and their internal debates on how to use it.

Whatever the outcome of the debates at the county and municipal level on how to spend the money, it is clear that the dollars will significantly assist Southwest Florida in its efforts to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Donalds vociferously fought passage of the American Rescue Plan, which passed the House twice and the Senate and was signed into law on March 11.

With implementation of the American Rescue Plan under way, Donalds, along with the rest of the Republican Party, turned his fire against Biden’s effort to restore and improve American infrastructure, fight climate change and provide American jobs. They focused on the Made in America Tax Plan, decrying its proposal to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 to 28 percent and make the ultra-wealthy pay a fair share of taxes.

“Biden is BAD for business,” Donalds tweeted on April 2. “Under this Admin, the incentive of corporations to do business in America has diminished greatly as a result of Biden’s anti-economic growth agenda. Raising the corporate tax is just another America last policy being adopted by the Biden Admin.” (Editor’s note: that tweet should be read “America-last” as opposed to Trump’s “America First,” slogan, which Donalds supports.)

He also complained that the American Jobs Plan was the Green New Deal in disguise and would provide only 5 percent of its funding for roads, highways and bridges, work against the coal and natural gas industries (in favor of solar, wind and renewable energy sources) and end anti-union “right to work” laws.

And in an unintentional bit of irony, on March 29 Donalds marked Vietnam Veterans Day by tweeting “Florida is home to the second-largest number of Vietnam War veterans in the nation, many of whom live in SW Florida. Today and every day, we offer our immense gratitude & appreciation for their selfless service to our nation.”

The American Jobs Plan, which he is so loudly denouncing, provides $18 billion for upgrades and modernization to Veterans Administration facilities like those in Southwest Florida.

Defending the filibuster and voter suppression

The US House of Representatives and the US Senate operate as separate and distinct institutions by design; in fact, Thomas Jefferson wanted each to operate as though the other didn’t exist. Members of the House are prohibited by House rules from referring to the Senate by name in their debates and speeches; they can only refer to “the other chamber” and the same goes for senators. This is to reduce institutional friction and maintain institutional independence.

That’s why it was surprising to see Donalds defending the Senate filibuster. It’s a practice peculiar to the Senate; the House has nothing like it.

Donalds’ defense of the Senate filibuster came in the context of his defense of Georgia’s voter suppression law, which has otherwise been blasted across the country as a deliberate attempt to dampen voting by communities of color and reduce democratic participation. He called Democratic condemnation of the law “race baiting” and was moved to issue a distinct statement expressing his sense of outrage that Biden had called the Georgia law “Jim Crow in the 21st Century” and “an atrocity.”

(Fun fact: The longest continuous filibuster in Senate history was conducted by Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina (at the time a “Dixiecrat” Democrat but later a Republican), who in 1957 spoke continuously for 24 hours and 18 minutes in an effort to stop a civil rights bill guaranteeing Black voting rights.)

Biden, stated Donalds, was “irresponsibly injecting race and the travesty of Jim Crow to oppose the filibuster. Time after time, Democrats resort to the race card to shield them from having to answer for their hypocrisy and radical policies.” Considering that Biden had in the past opposed school busing along with southern segregationists, “that dark stain on our Republic is personal to me and many Black Americans like me.”

The For the People Act (House Resolution (HR) 1) is designed to combat voter suppression and ensure that elections remain open and accessible to all voters.

Donalds denounced it on the House floor and called it “the radical takeover of our elections.”

“Abolishing voter ID laws, ending signature verification, and putting into place taxpayer-funded campaigns is detrimental to every American’s right to a free and fair election and the harmful rhetoric of President Biden cannot evade this fact,” Donalds argued in his statement.

The For the People Act passed the House on March 3 despite Donalds’ “no” vote and is now in the Senate where it faces a Republican filibuster.

Immigration and the southern border

With little else to criticize and Biden actions to date proving overwhelmingly popular, Republicans have seized on the migrant influx at the southern US border as a point of attack. However, without Donald Trump whipping up a frenzy of fear and loathing of foreigners, Republican attacks have lacked the certain je ne sais quoi that Trump provided. By regarding migrants and refugees as human beings seeking safety and refuge rather than subhumans bent on rape and pillage, Biden is taking heat out of the Trumpist fire.

Donalds sought to remedy that. In keeping with the rest of the Republican caucus for the past two weeks he was fixated on the southern border.

“Instead of traveling back home to Delaware, Biden should head to our Southern Border immediately,” he tweeted on March 16. “Since taking office, illegal migrants, drug smugglers, & human traffickers have had their sights set on entering our country and Biden has given them the key. Secure our border, now.”

Donalds also posted a video of himself walking beside the temporary barriers protecting the US Capitol two days before they were scheduled to come down anyway and called for them to be dismantled and erected instead along the southern US border.

“…The Democrats actually do love walls, and they do love fencing—to protect them. But when it comes to our border, they don’t want any protection. Let’s take down these walls in D.C. and relocate them to our Southern Border,” he said in the March 19 video as he walked along the barrier.

The 19th Congressional District is not on the US territorial border and for most Southwest Floridians the only signs of the migrant influx are landscape workers mowing their lawns, replacing their roofs and agricultural laborers making their full dinner tables possible.

In another unintentional irony, when a bipartisan solution to the problem of undocumented seasonal agricultural workers—who are badly needed by local farm owners and growers—came before the House, Donalds voted against it.

And in a less amusing irony, the barriers were indeed removed. Then, last Friday, April 2, Capitol Police Officer William Evans was killed when Noah Green attacked him and another officer by driving his car into them—while they were protecting the Capitol.

Donalds of course issued an appropriate tribute.

Commentary: Past and prologue

Not all of Donalds’ initiatives in the last two weeks were negative. On March 17 he introduced his second piece of legislation, the Responsible and Effective Spending Cuts of Undesirable Expenditures (RESCUE) Act of 2021 (HR 1955), which is his answer to Biden’s American Rescue Plan.

Technically, the purpose of HR 1955 is “to temporarily modify the application of the sequester under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010.”

That’s an interesting concept since there were complaints about pay-as-you-go budgeting and sequestration since the idea was introduced over 10 years ago. However, Donalds never submitted any text for the bill and it remains nothing more than a name and a number. An observer could be forgiven for concluding that this was not a serious piece of legislation but a bit of anti-Biden showboating.

Donalds has also been at pains to show that he is aware of his district. He and some of his staff took an airboat tour of the Everglades (which is actually outside the District boundaries), he and his family visited the Naples Botanical Garden (whose expansion was made possible by a generous donation from his predecessor, Francis Rooney), and he toured the Collier County Mosquito Control District headquarters, so he is cognizant of the local mosquitos.

Actually, for all this rhetorical sparring, this period has been something of a lull legislatively. Much of the initial heavy legislative lifting has already been done, with Donalds voting entirely against it.

But everyone should rest up: next up Biden will submit a new social program plan, the American Families Plan, and will submit his proposed budget for fiscal year 2022. That budget will feature implementation of the American Jobs Plan and corporate tax hikes to pay for it.

Donalds sits on the House Budget Committee, so this will be a chance for him to shine, as the Republican leadership and his PAC backers intended. No doubt he will have much to say, all of it negative. If past is prologue, he will be shallowly ideological, follow the party line and provide cover against any charges of Republican bias or prejudice. The 19th Congressional District will not play a large role in this.

The problem for Southwest Florida is that Donalds’ rigid right-wing orthodoxy and total rejection of relief, rebuilding and renewal will ensure that the region becomes an underfunded backwater while the rest of the nation moves forward to defeat the pandemic, boost employment and strengthen its infrastructure.

Liberty lives in light

Analysis: Trump’s border shutdown will mean pain in the pocketbook for SWFL

04-03-19 surprised-grocery-shopping-woman

April 3, 2019 by David Silverberg

The big, immediate headline after President Donald Trump threatened to close the US border with Mexico was that the American avocado supply would dry up in three weeks.

That would certainly hit Southwest Florida, even though the state is a major avocado producer. Still, although an avocado shortage would hurt a lot of local restaurant menus, most Southwest Floridians could live a few weeks without guacamole.

But more seriously, the local impact of a border shutdown would depend on its extent and its duration.

For consumers, it would immediately be felt most keenly in the grocery shopping cart, later at the gas pump and possibly in a recession.

The closing

Trump announced the possible border closing during his visit to Lake Okeechobee on Friday, March 29, managing to divert national media attention from his supposedly great efforts on behalf of the Hoover Dike and the Everglades.

Since the offhand announcement, the administration, facing an uproar over its implications, has clarified that it would not apply to truck traffic (which is also one of the major means of drug smuggling into the United States).

Precise details of the closing remain sparse because the possible closing was hardly a carefully considered or vetted policy. Its nature and extent continue to rest on the whims and moods of Donald Trump. On Tuesday he reiterated his threat. “If they don’t stop them [migrants], we are closing the border. We’ll close it. And we’ll keep it closed for a long time. I’m not playing games,” Trump said.

Having lost the battle of the US government shutdown, it seems he’s seeking to shut down something new.

This prompted a rare dissent from even so staunch a Trump enabler as Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate majority leader. “Closing down the border would have potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country,” said McConnell on Tuesday. “I would hope we would not be doing that sort of thing.”

Even conservative economist Arthur Laffer, inventor of the “Laffer curve” during the administration of President Ronald Reagan, said that a border shutdown “will hurt us a lot.” US-Mexican trade is “a win-win game on trade,” he said during an interview on Fox News.

Pain in the produce aisle

Mexico is currently the US’ third largest goods trading partner, according to the US Trade Representative. As of 2017, the most recent year for which statistics are available, US and Mexican two-way goods trade totaled $557.6 billion. Goods exports totaled $243.3 billion; goods imports totaled $314.3 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Mexico was $71 billion in 2017.

The primary goods imported from Mexico were vehicles, electrical machinery and machinery, optical and medical instruments and mineral fuels like oil.

Since Southwest Florida is not a center of commerce or immigration and has no cross-border transportation, a border shutdown would not initially be felt by businesses here.

But a border shutdown would be felt by every American consumer and Southwest Floridians are no exception. Costs would rise exponentially, particularly for foodstuffs.

Mexico is the largest supplier of agricultural imports to the United States. In 2017 that trade totaled $25 billion. Leading categories included fresh fruit ($6 billion), fresh vegetables ($5.5 billion), wine and beer ($3.3 billion), snack foods ($2.1 billion), and processed fruit and vegetables ($1.5 billion).

Suddenly, these goods would become scarcer and prices would rise for all foods, even those produced in Southwest Florida like tomatoes and strawberries. Southwest Floridians would be facing substantially higher food bills.

Pain at the pump

A border shutdown would have big implications for oil and gas, both for consumers and for Southwest Florida itself.

There would be substantial pain at the pump. The US imported $11 billion in mineral fuels from Mexico in 2017. A US-Mexico border closing, coming on top of sanctions placed on Venezuelan oil would drive up gas prices even further than the significant increases felt over the past month. Southwest Floridians would know that there’s a border shutdown every time they filled the gas tank.

But then, with oil prices rising, exploring, exploiting and extracting Florida’s oil, both in the Everglades and offshore, would become much more attractive and urgent to oil companies. The combination of oil industry profit-seeking and the Trump administration’s environmental indifference would nearly guarantee drilling off Southwest Florida’s coast and in the Everglades, although that would take several years to implement.

Southwest Florida would feel a double whammy from a border shutdown: both high gasoline prices in the short term and a degraded environment in the long term.

Pain in the pocketbook

As stated at the outset, the full impact of a Mexico border shutdown would depend on its extent and duration. The longer the shutdown, the greater the pain and expense and the deeper the effects would be.

What can be stated with certainty is that Trump is systematically impoverishing the United States just as he bankrupted his gambling casinos. The US national debt has now ballooned 77 percent in the first four months of fiscal year 2019 to $310 billion, up from $176 billion the previous year. Under Trump the trade deficit has reached over $100 billion, going from $502 billion in 2016 to $621 billion in 2018, an increase of 19 percent. Particularly hard hit is the once healthy and thriving US agriculture sector, with previously prosperous farmers now having to rely on government aid due to an unnecessary trade war with China.

A border shutdown would deliver a blow to the economy as a whole and consumers across the nation and would be particularly painful in Southwest Florida with its population of retirees, seniors and people on fixed incomes who would have difficulty coping with skyrocketing food and gas costs.

Even the threat of a shutdown is proving disruptive and disturbing to commerce and consumers.

The conclusion is clear: an unnecessary and absurd border shutdown is no way to make America great “again.”

Liberty lives in light

To read more about the impact of Trump trade policy on Mexican beer imports, see: “Farewell, my little Coronitas!”

US House fails to override Trump veto; Rooney bucks GOP, Diaz-Balart sticks with party line

01-13-19 us capitol cropped

March 26, 2019 by David Silverberg

Updated 10:20 pm with vote link and Diaz-Balart vote.

Today, March 26, the US House of Representatives failed to override President Donald Trump’s veto of House Joint Resolution 46, which would have terminated his declaration of a national emergency on the southern US border. The vote was 248 to 181, short of the two-thirds needed to override the veto.

Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) stuck to his previous position against the national emergency and voted to override the veto.

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.) voted to sustain the veto.

In his statement announcing his vote, Rooney declared: “My vote to override a veto of the resolution to rescind the national emergency declaration was based on the US Constitution and had nothing to do with President Trump.”

He continued: “My vote was based on the rule of law and the Constitutional separation of powers. Although it is true that there have been over 60 national emergency declarations since 1976, no previous declaration was in direct contrast to a vote of Congress and none dealt with appropriation and allocation of money – which is the sole responsibility of the Congressional branch.”

Rooney further stated: “I care deeply about securing our border and have both cosponsored and voted in favor of multiple bills to accomplish this and provide fixes to our broken immigration and visa systems. We need to secure our southern border and control who enters and leaves. This can be accomplished with the right combination of defensive barriers including walls and fences, surveillance technology, and vigorous enforcement of our laws.”

Diaz-Balart did not issue a statement explaining his vote.

The other 12 Republicans who voted against the declaration on its first passage on Feb. 26 did so again and were joined this time by a 14th, Rep. John Katko (R-24-NY), who had been absent from the first vote.

In a statement following the vote, the bill’s original sponsor, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-20-Texas) and Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) issued a joint statement: “Both chambers of Congress – a Democratic House and a Republican Senate – resoundingly rejected the President’s sham emergency declaration by passing HJRes.46. This will provide significant evidence for the courts as they review lawsuits. The President’s lawless emergency declaration clearly violates the Congress’s exclusive power of the purse, and Congress will work through the appropriations and defense authorization processes to terminate this dangerous action and restore our constitutional system of balance of powers.

“In six months, the Congress will have another opportunity to put a stop to this President’s wrongdoing. We will continue to review all options to protect our Constitution and our democracy from the President’s assault.”

With the House failing to override the veto the Senate is unlikely to vote on the matter since both chambers must be in agreement. However, as of this writing, no formal Senate announcement had been made.

Liberty lives in light

BREAKING NEWS: Senate votes against Trump ’emergency;’ Rubio, Scott split

02-27-19 The_Capitol_at_Dawn

March 14, 2019 by David Silverberg

Updated 4:28 pm with Trump reaction, 9:46 pm with vote correction

By a vote of 59 to 41, the United States Senate voted today to approve House Joint Resolution 46, overturning President Donald Trump’s emergency declaration on the border.

Twelve Republicans joined Democrats in voting to terminate the emergency declaration.

Florida’s two Republican senators split, with Marco Rubio voting against Trump to terminate the emergency and Rick Scott voting with him to continue it.

Other Republicans who voted to terminate the state of emergency were Mitt Romney and Mike Lee of Utah, Roy Blunt of Missouri, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Rob Portman of Ohio, Jerry Moran of Kansas, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi.

After the vote President Trump issued a tweet with the single word “VETO!” He then elaborated in a second tweet a few minutes later (capitalization his): “I look forward to VETOING the just passed Democrat inspired Resolution which would OPEN BORDERS while increasing Crime, Drugs, and Trafficking in our Country. I thank all of the Strong Republicans who voted to support Border Security and our desperately needed WALL!”

The House and Senate are expected to attempt an override of any veto, which will require a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

In the House, on Feb. 26 Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) joined 11 other Republicans who voted to terminate the emergency while Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.) voted with the president.

Liberty lives in light

US House votes to terminate state of emergency; Rooney breaks with party to oppose Trump

02-27-19 The_Capitol_at_Dawn

The US Capitol at dawn. (Photo: Architect of the US Capitol)

Feb. 27, 2019 by David Silverberg

Updated 11:40 am with Rooney statement and link to bill

Last night, Feb. 26, The US House of Representatives voted 245 to 182 to terminate President Donald Trump’s state of emergency on the southern border.

In a startling break with his Republican colleagues and the president, Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) voted with the Democratic majority to pass the bill. Until now Rooney has voted 100 percent with the president’s agenda in the 116th Congress. He joined 12 other Republicans in rejecting the state of emergency declaration, made on Feb. 15.

In a statement, Rooney declared: “I voted for the resolution because I believe in the rule of law and strict adherence to our Constitution. We are, as John Adams said, ‘A nation of laws, not men.’ The ends cannot justify the means; that is exactly what the socialists want.

“We need to secure our border and control who enters the United States but this emergency declaration is not the answer – fixing our broken immigration system is: adopting skill-based immigration, not family-based; policing visa overstays; ending the diversity lottery; making E-verify required of all employers; and stopping asylum abuse by requiring that asylum claims can only be made at a legal point of entry to the United States.”

The bill, House Joint Resolution 46, introduced on Feb. 22 by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-20-Texas), now goes to the Senate.

Should the bill be passed in the Senate, President Trump is widely expected to veto it.

Trump’s emergency declaration came after Congress passed a federal spending bill that did not include Trump’s demand for $5.7 billion for a border wall. At the press conference announcing his state of emergency declaration, Trump stated that he did not have to declare a state of emergency but that it would facilitate his getting the money more quickly. In addition to the congressional vote, the declaration is being challenged in court.

In addition to Democratic arguments that there was no national emergency at the border, that the declaration was an unconstitutional end-run to get money Congress had not appropriated and that success on this issue would lead Trump to declare further emergencies every time he wanted something, conservatives were also critical of the declaration. For example, the conservative, Koch-brothers funded Cato Institute, an ideological think tank, also argued against it in an essay, “There Is No National Emergency on the Border, Mr. President.”

Ironically, the vote against the declaration of emergency came on the eve of the 86th anniversary of the Reichstag fire in Germany. On Feb. 27, 1933 a fire broke out in the Reichstag building housing Germany’s parliament. A Dutch communist was held responsible and Adolph Hitler and the Nazi party used the incident to declare an emergency in Germany and pass laws that consolidated an unchecked Nazi dictatorship.

Liberty lives in light

Analysis: The impact of Trump’s border wall on Southwest Florida

02-05-19 Drug smuggling plane and El Chapo - CBP

A private aircraft purchased in Michigan in 2014 by the Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel, headed by drug lord “El Chapo” (inset), to smuggle drugs into the United States. A border wall will do nothing to stop drugs coming into the US on private aircraft. (Photo: DHS)

Feb. 5, 2019 by David Silverberg

Tonight, President Donald Trump will stand before the full Congress of the United States and the American people and make his case for a wall along the entire length of the US southwestern border.

The merits of this proposal are quite debatable. But beyond the overall national arguments, would a wall have any impact on Southwest Florida?

The short answer is: directly, no. The longer answer is: secondarily, yes.

Let’s look at each in turn.

Direct impacts

According to the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency in the Department of Homeland Security, Southwest Florida has only two official “ports of entry”— authorized places where people and goods come into the country from abroad.

One of these is Florida Southwest International Airport (RSW), which handles commercial, scheduled, non-stop international flights to and from destinations in Canada and Germany. RSW has both commercial flights and “general aviation”—the term for all other forms of civil flight that are unscheduled or non-commercial. General aviation in Southwest Florida usually means private aircraft like corporate jets or personal planes.

The other port of entry is Naples Airport, which handles only general aviation and passengers. “Port personnel are the face at the border for returning residents and visitors entering the United States,” according to CBP—i.e., airport employees rather than federal officials handle incoming passengers.

General aviation has long been a concern for border and security authorities both for its potential use for terrorist purposes and its longstanding use for smuggling of all kinds, particularly illicit drugs.

Indeed, Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel run by Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) ran a complete fleet of private aircraft for drug smuggling. Their tentacles even reached into Michigan where in 2014 they purchased a turboprop Rockwell International Commander 690B from a used-aircraft broker there. (The plane was seized in Texas the same year before it could be flown to Mexico.)

As should be obvious, a border wall is not going to stop large shipments of drugs coming into the United States—or for that matter, into Southwest Florida—on general aviation flights or in aircraft passengers’ luggage.

(Since Southwest Florida has no international seaports, maritime smuggling and migration is less of an issue for the region. Most seaborne illicit drug smuggling comes into Florida through Miami.)

Secondary impacts

Secondary impacts of the border wall could be enormous in Southwest Florida. Federal funding would likely be diverted from internal and infrastructure uses to the border wall. These impacts could include:

Taking funding from Everglades restoration and Hoover Dike repairs;
Taking funds from disaster recovery and assistance programs;
A drop in federal support for any hurricane resilience projects to protect Southwest Florida;
Loss of federal resources for water purity projects and protections;
Diversion of customs and border security resources in Florida to the southwest land border.

In addition, President Donald Trump’s policies are hurting Southwest Florida agriculture. The lack of comprehensive immigration reform means there is no guest worker or seasonal program to legally supply temporary workers for Southwest Florida farms, particularly in Collier County. That in turn could lead to labor shortages, higher food prices and lower agricultural productivity, impacting the local economy.

Conclusion

President Donald Trump’s unnecessary and ineffective border wall will impact every American and will have demonstrably deleterious impacts on Southwest Florida while failing in its primary mission of keeping out undocumented migrants and illicit drugs.

To read more about the reasons to oppose the wall, read: America, don’t build this wall.

To read why Democrats are holding firm against the wall, read: Why Democrats can’t cave on the wall.

Tag: Border security

We’re all ‘the usual suspects’ now

Prophetic or pathetic? Grading the political projections of the year past

Part II – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead abroad

Southwest Florida and entire state likely to feel labor, economic woes from anti-immigration measures

The Donalds Dossier: No rescue for Americans, defending the filibuster and fixating on the border

Analysis: Trump’s border shutdown will mean pain in the pocketbook for SWFL

Liberty lives in light

©2019 by David Silverberg

US House fails to override Trump veto; Rooney bucks GOP, Diaz-Balart sticks with party line

Liberty lives in light

© 2019 by David Silverberg

BREAKING NEWS: Senate votes against Trump ’emergency;’ Rubio, Scott split

Liberty lives in light

© 2019 by David Silverberg

US House votes to terminate state of emergency; Rooney breaks with party to oppose Trump

The US Capitol at dawn. (Photo: Architect of the US Capitol)

Liberty lives in light

Analysis: The impact of Trump’s border wall on Southwest Florida

A private aircraft purchased in Michigan in 2014 by the Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel, headed by drug lord “El Chapo” (inset), to smuggle drugs into the United States. A border wall will do nothing to stop drugs coming into the US on private aircraft. (Photo: DHS)

Liberty lives in light