All of Southwest Florida’s congressional representatives voted to keep House Speaker Rep. Michael Johnson (R-4-La.) in his position, rebuffing an attempt by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-14-Ga.) to oust him.
The vote taken this evening at 5:43 pm was to table Greene’s “motion to vacate,” House Resolution 1209, which would have declared the Speaker’s position vacant and set in motion an effort to elect a new Speaker. By tabling the motion, the House set it aside, taking no further action and effectively killing it.
The House voted overwhelmingly, 359 to 43 to table the motion. Some 196 Republicans and 163 Democrats voted for tabling. Only 11 Republicans and 32 Democrats voted against it. Seven Democrats voted “present,” 10 Republicans and 11 Democrats did not vote at all.
Rep. Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.) was very clear about his reasons for the vote.
“This Motion to Vacate vote is nothing more than a patently obvious attempt to seek attention, it will not help achieve any tangible results except media interviews for the proponents,” he stated on X. “Since @SpeakerJohnson was elected, he has proven remarkably adept at achieving conservative policy wins with the smallest majority in modern times. Time and time again he has earned my respect and deserves the support of every House Republican.”
As of this writing, Reps. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) and Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) had not posted statements about their votes on any platform.
Water and insurance: the bane of Florida homeowners.
May 5, 2024 by David Silverberg
Southwest Floridians know that their region is in the midst of a property insurance crisis and faces long-term water issues.
Insurance companies have left the state, people are having difficulty insuring their homes, and rates are skyrocketing. Much of the crisis is caused by repeated hurricanes devastating the area—and a new and potentially disastrous hurricane season looms.
The water issue is simply ensuring that safe, clean, unpolluted water is available to sustain life in the region.
Right now the water issue has reached a new inflection point. There’s a battle between the big sugar companies of Florida’s interior and environmental groups on the Gulf coast like Captains for Clean Water over how to use the water in a major reservoir.
In the midst of these existential problems, one might expect the congressman representing the area, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) to be actively engaged on behalf of the people of his district, roughly the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island.
However, an examination of the political action committees (PACs) contributing to his campaign reveal the heavy presence of Big Insurance and Big Sugar. It means he’s beholden to these industries financially and less likely to intervene when there’s a conflict between the interests of the companies and those of his constituents.
Which PACs have purchased a piece of Donalds? Their contributions are revealed in filings with the Federal Election Committee (FEC). While these contributions are legal and properly filed, they do reveal patterns of influence that explain Donalds’ handling—or neglect—of key issues vitally affecting Southwest Florida.
As it has since Donalds boasted that “the PACs didn’t get me elected” in 2021, The Paradise Progressive has issued periodic reports on his PAC support.
The issues go well beyond just insurance and sugar. PAC donations reveal a full spectrum of businesses and industries seeking to influence the congressman.
It needs to be stressed that none of this reporting alleges illegality or wrongdoing since these filings are in keeping with federal law. Also, to be compliant, none of these contributions are supposed to be given in exchange for a definite quid pro quo, a specific official action in return for a specific contribution. However, as will be seen, in one case contributions did perhaps “inspire” a very specific legislative initiative.
Big insurance
Donalds has a longstanding relationship with the insurance industry.
In the past session he sat on the House Small Business’ Oversight, Investigations, and Regulations Subcommittee, which oversaw regulations that included the heavily regulated insurance industry.
In this session he sits on the House Oversight and Accountability’s Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee.
On this committee he mainly used his position to bash the Biden administration for a wide variety of reasons, including many related to Hunter Biden and to pursue a presidential impeachment, which went nowhere. However, given the subcommittee involvement in regulatory affairs, it’s no surprise that the insurance industry saw fit to invest in his campaign in this cycle.
Some 16 insurance industry PACs contributed a total of $94,000 to the Donalds campaign in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 he added $4,000 from the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, Inc., PAC and $7,000 from the State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company Federal PAC.
The other insurance industry PACs contributing are (in alphabetical order): American Council of Life Insurers PAC; American Property Casualty Insurance Association PAC; Enact Holdings, Inc. PAC; Liberty Mutual Insurance Company – PAC; Metlife Inc. Employees’ Political Participation Fund A; Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation PAC; National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors PAC; National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies PAC; New York Life Insurance Company PAC; Protective Life Corporation Federal PAC; State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company Federal PAC; The Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers PAC; The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co. Federal PAC; and the Wholesale and Specialty Insurance Association PAC.
The bottom line conclusion from all this is that in any conflict between constituents and insurance companies, Donalds is very beholden to the insurance industry and very unlikely to contradict the industry’s interests.
Big sugar and bad water
In Southwest Florida the sugar industry has a major presence. It has always been deeply involved in the legislative process either to maintain federal sugar subsidies or to fend off restrictive legislation.
The industry has also been accused in the past of contributing to the pollution of Lake Okeechobee, a charge the companies have vehemently denied. When released, polluted water from the lake flows down the Caloosahatchee River through Fort Myers, contributing to the growth of blue-green algae, threatening the health of both people and wildlife. The companies have denied causing the pollution and argued that they follow environmentally responsible practices.
However, right now a new battle has broken out.
Sugar companies are suing the US Army Corps of Engineers to access water from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) reservoir rather than allow it to purify before flowing south into the Everglades and to the coast.
Environmental organizations like Captains for Clean Water are petitioning the sugar companies US Sugar Corp, Florida Crystals and the Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida to drop the lawsuit. If the lawsuit succeeds, according to the organization, the sugar companies will hoard the water at the expense of all other water users, change the purpose of the reservoir and could use it for their own purposes, polluting it. It could lead to events like the Big Bloom of 2018 when Southwest Florida was hit by both red tide and blue-green toxic algae blooms at the same time.
Donalds has been a major recipient of the sugar PACs’ largesse. In 2023 seven sugar industry PACs contributed a total of $11,000 to Donalds’ campaign. They were: the American Crystal Sugar Company PAC ($5,000), Amalgamated Sugar Company PAC ($1,500), the American Sugar Cane League of USA Inc. PAC ($1,000), the Minn-Dak Farmers Cooperative Sugar PAC ($1,000), the Western Sugar Cooperative PAC ($1,000), Florida Sugar Cane League PAC ($1,000), and the Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida PAC ($500).
Big finance, big banking and big tech
In 2023, after the insurance industry, the next largest contribution, $70,000, was donated by 24 financial services PACs.
This was followed by 18 banking PACs contributing a total of $67,000.
Donalds’ seat on the Digital Assets subcommittee has also made him a magnet for big technology contributions. Accordingly, in 2023 he received donations from the Microsoft Corporation Stakeholders Voluntary PAC ($3,000), Comcast Corporation and NBC Universal PAC – Federal ($2,500), Google LLC NetPAC ($2,000), Meta Platforms PAC (the company owning Facebook) ($1,000), AT&T Inc. Employee Federal PAC ($1,000), Verizon Communications, Inc., PAC ($1,000) and Charter Communications Inc., PAC ($2,500), a broadband connectivity and cable operating company.
In the first quarter of 2024, Donalds received $3,500 more from Comcast/Universal PAC, $578 from ROC Media LLC, a company that does targeted digital messaging based variously out of Sheridan, Wy., and the Virgin Islands, and $258 from Better Mousetrap Digital, a Vancouver, Canada-based digital marketing company.
Energy, nuclear and fossil
Examination of Donalds’ 2023 contributions reveals some differences from his 2022 cycle.
One of the most striking changes is in the energy sector.
For all of the Sunshine State’s sunshine—and its potential for solar power—Donalds has instead championed nuclear power.
According to Congress.gov, 14 of Donalds’ 53 bills (roughly 26 percent) in the current Congress related to the nuclear power industry, mostly deregulating it or in some way favoring it.
(A note on this: Congress.gov is the official count of the US Congress. It shows Donalds sponsoring 53 standalone bills, nine resolutions and four amendments, or 66 pieces of legislation altogether in the 118th Congress. Donalds’ office counts him as sponsoring 77 pieces of legislation.)
Donalds benefited from energy industry PACs and seven of them contributed a total of $25,500 in the 2024 cycle. Fossil fuel PACs included those from the companies Sinclair, Valero, Marathon and Exxon Mobile as well as NextEra Energy, a utility infrastructure company, and Duke Energy, an energy holding company. Also contributing was the overall trade group for fossil fuels, the American Fuels and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC.
While the fossil fuel companies have all diversified their energy sources in past years, it is interesting to note that the premier nuclear industry PAC, the Nuclear Energy Institute’s Federal PAC, did not make a contribution, which an observer might otherwise expect. Of course, that could change during the course of this year’s campaign.
Ideological PACs
In addition to industry PACs, Donalds received a variety of contributions from fellow members of Congress and ideologically-driven organizations.
In 2023 these included the Eye of the Tiger PAC run by House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-1-La.), which contributed $5,000 to Donalds’ campaign. The Scalise for Congress committee also contributed $2,000.
The Let’s Get to Work PAC of Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) donated $5,000. Other members of Congress whose PACs have contributed include: Reps. Jim Jordan (R-4-Ohio) (Jim Jordan for Congress, $2,000); Jason Smith (R-8-Mo.) (Mr. Southern Missourian in the House PAC, $5,000); Patrick McHenry (R-10-NC) (Innovation PAC, $5,000); and John James (R-10-Mich.) (Mission First People Always PAC, $2,000). Former Wisconsin congressman and current Fox News commentator Sean Duffy (Duffy for Wisconsin) contributed $2,000.
In the first quarter of 2024, the Lean Forward America Fund, run by Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-38-Texas), another African American conservative member of Congress, contributed an unusually large $15,601.74 to Donalds’ campaign.
The curious case of the Kochs and Americans for Prosperity
When he first ran for Congress in 2020 Donalds was backed by Americans for Prosperity, an ideological PAC backed by the extremely conservative David and Charles Koch brothers of Wichita, Kansas. Its contributions put him over the finish line in both the primary and general elections in what was then a very tight race.
But Americans for Prosperity is missing from this cycle’s list of Donalds’ PAC donors. One reason for that may be Donalds’ embrace of earmarks, special appropriations requested by members of Congress for their districts.
Initially denounced by Republicans, Party members changed tack in 2022, embracing earmarks first with disgust and then enthusiastically when they won control of the House.
In the first year that earmarks were again permitted Donalds didn’t bother to request any for the 19th Congressional District, subjecting him to local criticism (“SWFL loses out on federal millions when Donalds won’t ask for cash”). He has changed that since then and now entertains requests from constituents.
But that may have alienated Americans for Prosperity, which has remained staunchly anti-earmark despite the Republican change of heart.
Another reason may be that the Koch brothers very publicly backed former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley for president and Donalds is an outspoken Trumper.
Whatever the reason, Americans for Prosperity were not among Donalds’ donors in this cycle.
However, the Koch Industries PAC remained a backer. It contributed a total of $4,000 in 2024 and $2,000 in 2023.
Analysis: The mother’s milk of politics
There has been money in politics going back to the days when Marcus Licinius Crassus bankrolled an aggressive young Roman politician named Julius Caesar.
It’s certainly nothing new. Money has been called the “mother’s milk of politics” and Byron Donalds certainly knows how to suck at that teat.
Donalds may not be a productive lawmaker or an effective advocate for his Southwest Florida constituents but he is a relentless and persistent fundraiser.
His fundraising appeals have headlines like “Stopping the cheating Democrats dead in their tracks.” They feature statements like: “Next to Crooked Joe INTERFERING in the 2024 election, what’s the one common denominator across the Left’s many Witch Hunt [sic] against President Trump? SOROS. Soros-funded DAs, Soros-funded prosecutors – all accomplices to Crooked Joe’s attempt to DESTROY his chief political rival like a Third World Marxist.”
It’s shrill and extreme but it seems to work—and even if Donalds didn’t write this purple prose himself, it goes out under his name and with his approval.
Donalds enters his re-election campaign with a substantial war chest. According to the 2024 1st quarter filings, as of March 31 he had $3.2 million (or $3,249,767.73, to be exact) on hand. Of that, $2,259,178.60 came from individual contributions and of that roughly half, $1,166,795.32, came in donations under $200, so the donors don’t have to be individually reported. He has already spent $2.5 million ($2,571,446.38) on the campaign.
The PAC contributions are much more modest: a total of $371,134.15. But it’s the PAC contributions that reveal Donalds’ ties to the various industries and businesses that keep him in office.
And one case in particular reveals the connection between money and legislation and Byron Donalds.
The smokin’ stogey
The image of cigar-chomping politicians doing deals in reeking, smoke-filled back rooms with other puffing politicos is an old one.
But in the case of Donalds, when it comes to cigars, the scene is more literal.
Donalds is a fan of cigars. He even has a “cigar chair” in his Washington, DC office for the occasional smoke.
Alex Lorusso, a conservative online journalist, works on an interview in Rep. Byron Donalds’ “cigar chair” in his Washington Office on Nov. 7, 2023. (Photo: Office of Rep. Donalds)
But Donalds’ affinity for cigars goes well beyond simply smoking them—and illustrates the PAC-Congress connection.
Political contributions are supposed to be for general campaign purposes; they’re rarely tied to specific pieces of legislation or official actions—which if done improperly is illegal.
In the spring of 2023, Donalds received $5,000, the legal limit, from Swisher PAC, the political arm of Swisher International Inc., a tobacco company based in Jacksonville, Fla., which sells cigars among its many products. He also received $4,000 in two contributions from the Premium Cigar Association PAC, which represents high-end cigar and pipe tobacconists.
On Nov. 9, 2023 Donalds introduced House Joint Resolution (HJRes) 99 to “Amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to Exempt the Premium Cigar Industry from Certain Regulations.”
Under the bill a premium cigar would not be classified as a “tobacco product” and so would not be subject to regulations covering other tobacco products like cigarettes. These regulations include prohibiting sales of tobacco products to anyone under the age of 21, marketing to children, selling fruit or candy-flavored products to entice underage children to smoke and making false or misleading claims that a tobacco product isn’t harmful.
The exemption has been the goal of the premium cigar industry for some time.
After introducing the bill, on Dec. 13 Donalds received an additional $1,000 from the Premium Cigar PAC.
Like the rest of Donalds’ legislative proposals, HJRes 99 hasn’t gone anywhere. It sits in the House Energy and Commerce’s health subcommittee, where it has remained since the day after it was introduced.
But it illustrates the relationship between PACs and members of Congress in general.
And in Donalds’ case that’s a pretty tight relationship.
An archetypal scene of a smoke-filled room from the 1933 movie, The Invisible Man. (Image:Universal)
Of historical note: This article marks the 500th post of The Paradise Progressive.
Rep. Byron Donalds introduces Alfie Oakes at a gathering at Food & Thought 2 last Wednesday.
April 26, 2024 by David Silverberg
Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III will be running again to keep his seat as a Collier County Republican state committeeman, he announced Wednesday, April 24.
Oakes, a local farmer, grocer and Trumpist activist, made the announcement at a gathering at his Food & Thought 2 restaurant. The Republican primary election is scheduled for August 20.
Oakes was endorsed by Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) and said in his turn he supports Donalds as well for whatever position he seeks, mentioning the possibility of Donalds’ running for governor in 2026.
In his remarks he also mentioned that while “America First” Republicans had been successful in the past, their preferred candidate, Ted Blankenship, had been rebuffed for mayor in the City of Naples election on March 19, as a result of “country club Republicans.” He said he anticipated different results in Collier County in the upcoming elections.
Oakes endorsed Kristina Heuser for a committe position on the Collier County Republican Executive Committee (CCREC) to replace the current member, JoAnn DeBartolo, a longtime conservative, pro-Trump activist.
Heuser is a local lawyer and the drafter of Collier County’s anti-federal nullification ordinance, which passed the Board of Commissioners last August. A previous ordinance she wrote was defeated in 2021.
Kristina Heuser.
Donalds, Oakes and Heuser all called for unity among Republicans, while acknowledging differences of opinion within the Party.
“Before the Democrats do anything to us, we have to make sure that we don’t do anything to ourselves,” said Donalds. He said that while Republicans had divisions it was only the result of “a passionate commitment” to keep Florida the best state in the country “but that is only going to happen if we unite as one party.”
Oakes said that he opposed DeBartolo for another term on the Committee but chose not to elaborate, saying “if you can’t say something nice about someone don’t say anything at all.”
In her address Heuser stated: “There is an evil, George Soros-funded movement in Florida,” she said of the initiative to amend the state Constitution to guarantee a right to abortion. Amendment 4 supporters “want to legalize abortion through birth, not through a law that can be undone but by putting it into the Florida state Constitution.” She urged listeners to vote against it in November.
She continued: “They are going to say this is to protect women’s health but no, this is to say that the legislature cannot restrict abortion at all.”
She said she would work “to make sure the Republican Party continues to stand for life.”
She also said that while working in New York she had met people who lost their jobs for refusing to take the COVID vaccine and “the government should never tell you [that] you have to inject toxic drugs into your body.”
She said she and the others gathered there were present “we’re here to protect Biblical values” and “We seek the truth through love, that is what the Bible tells us to do.”
Passage yesterday of a $95 billion aid package to Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific in the US House of Representatives revealed fundamental differences among Southwest Florida’s representatives regarding America’s role in the world.
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.), chair of the State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, had a key role in drafting the legislation and voted for it. He supports active American involvement in world affairs and events.
Reps. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) and Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) voted against it, advocating an insular, isolationist approach that would favor Russia’s conquest of Ukraine.
The bill passed in an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 316 to 94.
One hundred and sixty five Democrats and 151 Republicans voted to approve the measure, while 55 Republicans and 39 Democrats voted against it. Twenty-one members did not vote.
The package consisted of four bills: the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (House Resolution (HR) 8034; the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act (HR 8035); the Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Act (HR 8036); and the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act (HR 8038). The last was a miscellany of measures including sanctions against Russia and Iran, international crime prevention measures and anti-fentanyl and Tik-Tok prohibitions.
These bills will now be merged with a bill already passed in the Senate, and a vote on the whole is expected today, Saturday, April 20.
Diaz-Balart strongly promoted the legislation prior to the vote.
“As Chairman of the subcommittee that provides funds for national security and foreign assistance priorities, I am proud to be an original cosponsor of these important pieces of legislation,” he stated in a press release on April 17. “The strategic alliance between our most dangerous adversaries, such as communist China, Russia, and the terrorist State of Iran, poses a direct threat to our national security. This bill fully funds our security commitments to support Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, which are confronting existential challenges as they face threats from dangerous, anti-American regimes. Passage of this critical national security legislation will support US interests in the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific, and make us safer here at home by supporting our military.”
He continued: “There is nothing our adversaries would love more than for the United States to fail to stand with our friends in their time of greatest need. We have no time to spare. Passage of this aid package is critical.”
In contrast, immediately after voting against the bill, Donalds posted on X: “Government must put the AMERICAN PEOPLE FIRST.”
Steube opposed the bill on both partisan and substantive grounds.
“Tells you a lot about our current Republican ‘leadership’ when there are more Democrats than Republicans voting for a so-called ‘Republican’ rule…” he posted on X when the House debated the rules for considering the measure.
Steube made his objections to security assistance in general known in March during earlier consideration of Ukraine and Israel aid. On March 22 he posted on X: “101 Republicans just voted for an out-of-control spending bill that includes more money for Ukraine and $500 million for Jordan’s border security…Meanwhile, as we sit here in Washington DC, our country is being invaded. What about America’s border security? This bill is AMERICA LAST.”
Donalds’ and Steube’s opposition is in keeping with that of the extreme conservative wing of the Republican Party, which is now considering attempting the ouster of House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-4-La.) for working with Democrats to pass the package.
Former President Donald Trump with Rep. Byron Donalds (Photo: Office of Byron Donalds)
March 20, 2024 by David Silverberg
Last Saturday, March 16, Donald Trump, campaigning in Ohio, said: “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole – that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country.” Given Trump’s past encouragement of violence and his past incitement of a mob attack on the US Capitol, the resulting furor might be understandable. However, Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans rushed to Trump’s defense, saying that he was only referring to the auto industry.
Republican candidate Donald Trump makes his “bloodbath” statement at a rally in Ohio. (Image: YouTube)
One of the MAGA loyalists vociferously defending Trump was Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), whose Southwest Florida district covers the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island.
“FAKE NEWS ALERT,” he posted on X the next day. “Yesterday, President Trump held a rally in OH. He spoke about how outsourcing the US auto industry would create an economic bloodbath. Now media is deliberately twisting his words in an attempt to dupe the American people. This ‘bloodbath’ hoax is SHAMEFUL.”
In and of itself Donalds’ reflexive defense of Trump was unsurprising. However, another statement was, in its way, even more extreme.
On March 7, Donalds was asked in an interview with the newssite Axios whether if he served as vice president in a Trump administration he would certify the Electoral College votes in the 2028 election.
Donalds said he wouldn’t do so automatically. “If you have state officials who are violating the election law in their states … then no, I would not,” he said, adding that “I already know” states did not follow election laws in 2020.
When asked if he agreed with then-Vice President Mike Pence’s certification of the results on Jan. 6, 2021, Donalds said “you can only ask that question of Mike Pence,” (which doesn’t answer the question, since Donalds was being asked for his opinion of Pence’s actions and had nothing to do with Pence’s opinion).
Donalds’ response raises the possibility—indeed, the likelihood—that if Trump won the presidency with Donalds as vice president, Donalds would enable a possible permanent, lifetime, unelected Trump presidency (really, a dictatorship) by tossing out Electoral votes in any election certification over which he presided.
Donalds is already on record voting to overturn the 2020 election, which he did on Jan. 6, 2021 before the Capitol was invaded by the Trump-incited mob that Donalds characterized that day as “lawless vigilantes” and “a bunch of lunatics.”
That day too, Pence certified the election results—for which action the mob attempted to lynch him.
Eyes on the rise
Donalds’ defense of a Trump “bloodbath” and his willingness to support a lifetime Trump presidency once again puts the spotlight on his longstanding quest to become Trump’s vice president.
Donalds himself has become coy about his aspirations. Last year when the idea apparently first occurred to him or he had some encouragement, he seemed especially eager. Last June he posted in a fundraising message: “…I haven’t heard nearly as much discussion about who the Republican nominee for Vice President should be. It’s critical that the nominee is another America First warrior who will stand up to the radical Left no matter what kind of witch hunts the radical Left and the Deep State throw at the ticket.” There was little doubt who he had in mind.
But in October last year when asked about a potential vice presidential slot at a Fort Myers town hall, according to a Naples Daily News article, he responded, “The speculation is out there. I’ve not talked to the president about it (but) if he goes, ‘All right, Byron, that’s what I want you to do,’ then yeah, all right let’s roll. Because you know it’s about the country.”
Nothing seems to have happened in the intervening time to indicate that Donalds is any closer to being tapped for vice president than was the case then. In fact, if anything, Donalds is further from the possibility.
But it’s worth asking, from Trump’s perspective: what would Donalds bring to a Trump ticket?
Assets
In a traditional political calculation, the vice presidential candidate is picked to balance the top of the ticket based on region, ideology, race, age or gender. Presumably, this “balance” attracts sufficient voters to make a winning majority.
Of course Donald Trump has tossed away all traditional calculations. There’s just no telling what his criteria would be for his vice presidential candidate—although the high likelihood is that it would be blind personal loyalty, subservience and a willingness to obey any command no matter how criminal, unconstitutional or even treasonous, especially given that he encouraged the attempted lynching of Pence when he refused to commit an unconstitutional act at Trump’s command.
But based on traditional calculations, the first and most obvious thing that Donalds would bring to a Trump ticket is just the fact that he is African American.
At its most basic, an African American on the ticket would shield Trump from charges of racism. It might attract the votes of a small sliver of other African Americans.
But Donalds is not the only African American willing to provide racial cover for Trump. He is competing with the much more prominent Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) who ran his own race for president, lost, and then very conspicuously endorsed the man who beat him.
The same applies to Ben Carson, who did the same thing in 2016. After his failed presidential bid he was appointed Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the administration. Carson has been actively serving as a Trump surrogate on the campaign trail.
So Donalds must stand out in some other way and the way he appears to have chosen is by ostentatiously trumpeting his total personal allegiance and loyalty to Trump on every media platform available. He has completely bought into every Trump policy and position, no matter how extreme. He has relentlessly attacked President Joe Biden and his administration, proclaimed his belief in the Big Lie of a stolen election in 2020 and was the first Florida Republican politician to endorse Trump when he announced his current run in November 2022.
The public can only guess why Trump continues to overlook and ignore Donalds. However, there are some liabilities that might be factors.
Liabilities
The first liability is that aside from a tiny fraction of the extremely conservative congressional Freedom Caucus, Donalds has no base of his own and what there is, is tenuous as well. It appears to consist mainly of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-3-Colo.), who appears about to lose her seat, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-14-Ga.), who was kicked out of the Freedom Caucus for being too extreme even for its members, and Rep. Chip Roy (R-21-Texas), who nominated Donalds for Speaker in January 2023.
Rep. Byron Donalds sits uncomfortably between Reps. Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene while they both heckle President Joe Biden during his State of the Union speech in 2022. (Photo: Reuters)
His support from other members of Congress is small, judging from the few PACs that contributed to his campaign in 2023. These include House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-1-La.), whose Eye of the Tiger PAC contributed $5,000 to Donalds’ campaign in 2023 as well as Scalise for Congress, which contributed $2,000. Other members of Congress whose PACs have contributed include Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Reps. Jim Jordan (R-4-Ohio), Jason Smith (R-8-Mo.), Patrick McHenry (R-10-NC), John James (R-10-Mich.) and former Wisconsin congressman and current Fox News commentator Sean Duffy.
After two terms Donalds is relatively unknown to the public at large, although he’s been working hard to become more prominent. But he would bring no national following to the ticket. Voters, especially black voters, would be mystified by his presence and likely as not would recoil from what they discovered on closer examination.
Also, despite his clear and undisguised ambition, Donalds has lost every election that he’s entered among his fellow Republican members of Congress. He lost his bid to be Republican conference chair and two bids to become Speaker of the House.
He made these efforts despite having a record that did not qualify him for an office higher than the one he already occupies. He has no significant legislative successes to date, nor can he boast of any congressional achievements, either major or minor. He’s still just a sophomore lawmaker grasping for promotion to the junior class. He doesn’t stand out intellectually, influentially or politically. (It was his presumption in this regard that enraged TV host Joy Reid when she interviewed him following his first bid for the Speakership.)
There is some debate whether a vice president could come from the same state as the president but this has largely been dismissed by analysts, who believe it would be permissible. However, it would introduce a complicating factor and element of uncertainty into any campaign.
More significant would be the searing scrutiny Donalds would undergo as a vice presidential candidate—and which he might not survive. He has already admitted to a drug-related arrest as a young man but there have been previous allegations of wrongdoing that would be re-investigated with far more rigor than in the past.
His private life would become wide open, including all the circumstances of his first marriage, divorce and remarriage. Any other skeletons would tumble out of their closets as well.
In examining the totality of Donalds’ pronouncements, actions and legislation, the portrait that emerges is that of a professional politician, almost wildly driven to rise on the national stage in any venue he can find; it doesn’t matter if that’s as a vice presidential candidate, a gubernatorial candidate or a House Republican leader.
The steppingstone
For voters in the 19th Congressional District, these are abstract considerations over which they have no influence. But in practical, immediate terms, what does Donalds’ approach mean for voters in Southwest Florida, who will have to decide whether to renew his contract in November?
“We’re a stepping stone for him in his ‘illustrious’ career,” Kari Lerner, Donalds’ Democratic opponent, said in an interview with The Paradise Progressive earlier this month. “I think the people of Southwest Florida deserve more than to be a stepping stone. I think they deserve more than to be stepped upon.”
Donalds’ political rise is not going to be enabled by attending to the mundane needs of his Southwest Florida district. There, the ongoing concerns are water, development, population growth, algal blooms, the Everglades, conservation and the tourist economy with the occasional hurricane recovery thrown in—hardly sexy national issues that are springboards to higher office. As Lerner noted, for Donalds Southwest Florida is a steppingstone, not a destination.
So while he has done things like submitting earmarks for projects benefiting the district—after some intense prodding—and writing letters when his constituents were afflicted with industrial pollution, his legislative record regarding his district’s core concerns is barely existent. He has not used whatever leverage he has in the Republican House and with the Republican leadership to advance any meaningful measure improving the lives, health or prosperity of his constituents beyond simply introducing 59 bills that have almost all gone nowhere. (Only one, the FISHES Act, House Resolution 5103 has had a subcommittee hearing.)
Instead, he has pounded the media pavements at every opportunity to raise his profile, grasped at every possible opening for higher position and made sure to reaffirm his utterly blind and unquestioning loyalty to Donald Trump.
This does not rebound to the district’s benefit, especially with Gov. Ron DeSantis, on whom Donalds turned his back in favor of Trump. The governor is in a position to veto appropriations to the region or dispense any favors or assistance if needed and he’s known to keep score and retaliate.
Basically, Southwest Florida has an ambitious but distracted representative whose chief focus is on his next possible step up the political ladder rather than on the sands and substance of the district he calls home (and that just barely, since gerrymandering is the only reason his home address is in the district’s boundaries—a favor of the governor, by the way).
On Nov. 5, Donalds’ contract will be up for renewal. District voters should think long and hard whether they should vote to renew it. In a year when so many loyal, traditional, lifelong Republicans have been exiled from the Party by Donald Trump, do they really want to send back to Washington to act and speak on their behalf a fanatically subservient Trumper, a man who is willing to do whatever it takes to keep Donald Trump president for life? This might be the year they want to make a change.
Meanwhile, Donalds has pursued—and is likely to keep pursuing—offices for which he is unqualified by any record of achievement as measured by traditional political calculations and expectations. In each case he has failed to attain his goals when subjected to the judgment of his peers and political elders.
Of course, in this he is likely encouraged by the example of his idol and hero, who attained the highest office in the land despite a complete absence of qualifications, knowledge or fitness.
As he has throughout his political career in Southwest Florida, Donalds has had to square a very difficult circle: he’s an African American in an 85 percent white, heavily conservative MAGA district, where a significant strain of white racism could be expected to influence voting.
What is more, he is mightily laboring in service to a presidential candidate whose racism is blatant, undisguised and appears to extend to Donalds himself.
Donalds has overcome this contradiction by presenting himself as even more extremely Trumpist/MAGA than the most extreme MAGAs in his district and nationwide—with the possible exception of Donald Trump himself.
Clearly, Donalds’ calculation is that the purity of his belief and loyalty will be sufficient for his MAGA voters, his fellow congressional Republicans and Donald Trump himself to overcome any racial prejudice they may harbor. Put another way, they’ll accept him if he’s sufficiently useful to their cause.
The irony is that Donalds’ rise in electoral politics to this point and in this place would have been impossible without the civil rights, racial integration and African American political success of the past century, progress that Trump, MAGAs and white supremacists are trying to undo by making America “great” again.
And, of course, if Trump is elected and establishes a dictatorship, as Donalds has stated he is willing to enable, there won’t be any electoral politics any more for anyone to rise, much less African Americans of any ideological persuasion.
Joe Biden ran for president at age 76 in 2020 because he recognized that he was fighting for nothing less than the soul of America.
An unkind critic might liken Donalds’ defense of Trump’s bloodbath pronouncement and willingness to promote a Trump dictatorship to selling his own soul to gain worldly prominence and power.
The state of Donalds’ soul is up to Donalds himself, of course. But as he continues to commit his soul to Donald Trump, he might want to consider the words of Matthew 16:26 in the New Testament: “For what is a man profited, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?”
Kari Lerner (center) explains her positions to voters following a parade in Fort Myers. (Photo: Campaign)
March 3, 2024 by David Silverberg
It takes great courage to run for Congress as a Democrat in Florida’s 19th Congressional District, the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island.
But Kari Lerner, chair of the Lee County Democratic Party, has that courage. And she’s facing a formidable incumbent in Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.).
“There was no way Byron Donalds would run unopposed on my watch,” she said in an interview with The Paradise Progressive. “I will tell you, in all sincerity, that I believe that a victory is improbable—but far from impossible.”
With that in mind, Lerner is collecting signatures to put herself on the ballot. She has until April 26 to turn in 5,491 signatures. Alternatively, she can pay a $10,440 fee to register as a candidate.
Donalds, 45, has made a name for himself for the past four years as a very ambitious, very extreme Make America Great Again (MAGA) Trumper who is now hoping for a slot as former president Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.
And that makes him vulnerable, in Lerner’s view.
“Byron Donalds is not well-liked,” she said. “He’s not done the job. He’s not brought resources to the majority of his constituents; he’s more interested in building his career than he is in serving and doing the job. I think it’s horrible.”
Indeed, in recent weeks, as the prospect of a Trump vice presidential pick has loomed, a stampede has been under way among Republican politicians to prove themselves ever more fanatical, ever more loyal and ever more fawning to gain his favor.
Donalds has been no slouch in this department, sending out reams of X messages (formerly tweets) and fundraising solicitations using ever more extreme rhetoric. Among many other appearances, he appeared on the mainstream NBC program Meet the Press on Feb. 25 to justify Trump remarks that many people found insulting to the black community.
But in his rush to curry Trump’s favor, Donalds has overlooked the district’s needs and issues and neglected to advance any legislation he introduced in Congress. It’s a pattern that has held throughout his two terms in office.
By contrast, Lerner, 64, has experience representing a district—and a Republican one at that.
From south to north
It was a journey to get to that point. She was raised in Cape Coral, where she graduated from Caloosa Middle School and Cypress Lake High School in Fort Myers. In an act of personal climate change, she then travelled to New Hampshire where she earned her Bachelor of Science in Business Administration (summa cum laude) from Southern New Hampshire University.
In Chester, NH, she was elected Town Chair of the town’s Democrats and was active in local politics, which were even more heavily Republican than in Southwest Florida. She found a Democratic Party consisting of six people meeting in a public library and keeping the Party treasury in a shoebox. She built the local organization and increased attendance at meetings.
When a position opened up for state representative for District 4 she ran in a special election, won and then won the seat in a regular election. It was a milestone—she was only the second Democrat in 120 years to represent the district.
“I was able to represent the entire district, not just the special interests,” she said proudly.
After stints in a variety of jobs, including nine years as a substitute mathematics teacher in middle and high school, she moved back to Southwest Florida in 2019 to be with family and work as a realtor.
She also remained politically active, becoming chair of the Lee County Democratic Party.
In that capacity she began seeking people willing to run for the congressional seat but hit a surprising roadblock.
“It was my job to recruit candidates and I beat the bushes for a year and a half,” she recalled. “Most of the people I reached out to were attorneys. Most were concerned about their practices but not for the reasons you would think. They were concerned because the judges are all MAGA judges now and they’re concerned that their clients might not get fair trials. To a person that was the concern.”
What was more, they were concerned for the safety of their families. By contrast, “I don’t have children in the school system to be harassed and threatened,” Lerner noted. Her three adult children are pursuing their own careers.
Given that she was not going to allow Donalds to run unopposed, on Jan. 20 she announced her own candidacy.
But she was driven by more than just the need to oppose Donalds; there were important principles at stake.
“I’ve never been arrested or convicted of any crime,” she said, in pointed contrast to Donalds. “I believe in the rule of law. And I believe that we are more than the R or the D that is stamped on our foreheads, I believe that we are Americans first, and this divisiveness is weakening our country. Division is weakness, unity is strength and the world is watching as our house bickers relentlessly—about everything.”
She continued: “I will not refer to fellow Americans as vermin. Even those I disagree with, I am not going to call traitors.”
That said, her travels and interactions with voters have revealed some glaring deficiencies in Donalds’ representation of the district.
“The support of the voters has been overwhelming,” she recalled of the reactions to her own candidacy. “When I tell people I’m running against Byron Donalds the first response is always ‘someone needs to!’ I’m surprised at how many people who are not Democrats feel that way.”
She continued, “He envisions himself as the next governor of Florida. He’s not. We’re a stepping stone for him in his illustrious career. I think the people of Southwest Florida deserve more than to be a stepping stone. I think they deserve more than to be stepped upon.”
That was especially apparent in Donalds’ response to Hurricane Ian in 2022.
“That was when it became apparent that he does not understand the job,” she said. “When you’re a member of Congress, you do not need to be the one standing there handing out water for a photo op. You need to be in DC getting us the resources that we need. We needed gasoline, we needed propane, we needed communications, we needed that Ian disaster declaration that finally came through. Why weren’t they writing that the day after the storm? Why weren’t they looking to get us the resources that we needed?”
She recalled one woman on Fort Myers Beach who told her that Donalds appeared on her doorstep, apologized that she had been victimized by the storm, posed for a photograph to be published and then disappeared. Moreover, “That’s a common theme I hear from people.”
The experience has made her angry. “It’s the job of the representative to be the liaison between the district and the federal government” she emphasized. “Your number one priority is your district—it’s got to be the people in your district.”
Fighting for fundamentals
When it comes to issues, Lerner starts with fundamentals: a belief in putting the needs of people over that of personal ambition, acting independently for the sake of the district and upholding the rule of law and the Constitution.
She believes in personal autonomy in healthcare decisions, including the right to abortion. She’s a fierce defender of the right to vote and to give everyone eligible the opportunity to vote. Defense of the fundamental rights of freedom of worship, freedom of thought, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly are cornerstones of her campaign.
She calls herself a woman of faith and is a member of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America, which she says drives her social and political impulse to do good, although she emphasizes that “I’m not here to shove any doctrine down anybody’s throat.”
There’s no doubt that she faces a long, hard struggle if she’s going to unseat Donalds.
Not only is the district 65 percent Republican based on voter registration, in the last quarter of 2023 the Federal Election Commission reported the Donalds campaign as having $2.3 million in receipts compared to just under $17,000 for Lerner. Donalds’ backers include political action committees representing big sugar, big oil and big finance, among many other industries.
Still, driven by her conscience, the needs of the district and the support of voters with whom she has talked, Lerner is undeterred.
She said that one of her strengths is the ability and determination to look ahead. “I think things through beyond what most people will,” she said. “I take things to their logical extreme, looking for unintended consequences, trying to understand origins. I think it’s important to think beyond the surface, to look beyond what’s easy because at the end of the day nothing is ever easy and if you go with what’s easy you don’t always get the best result.”
And there’s one other thing she brings to the table—what she calls her superpower. It has helped her throughout her life and brought her success in previous political battles.
And what might that be?
“My superpower,” she said with steely intensity, “is being underestimated.”
A sign warns of red tide at the entrance to Delnor-Wiggins State Park in Naples during the 2018 Big Bloom. (Photo: Author)
Jan. 22, 2024 by David Silverberg
While a new study puts a price tag on the cost of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Southwest Florida, two bills meant to help protect the region’s clean water are languishing in the US House of Representatives, ignored and forgotten by the member of Congress who sponsored them: Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.).
One bill is the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act (House Resolution (HR) 325). It would ensure that federal agencies monitor potentially HABs even if there’s a government shutdown. The other is the Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act (HR 1008), which would make a slight change to existing legislation so that HABs are treated like other natural disasters and victims receive federal benefits.
Last year the organizations commissioned the outside consulting firm Greene Economics LLC, Ridgefield, Wash., to do an extensive and thorough analysis of the precise value of clean water to Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties.
The study found that the value of clean water is massive: it provides $18 billion in value to the coastal economy of the three counties.
The study found that of all the threats to that water like hurricanes, saltwater intrusion, and wastewater pollution, the most costly and dangerous were HABs like red tide and blue-green algae. A major HAB has the potential to cost Southwest Florida $5.2 billion in coastal economic losses, $17.8 billion in property value losses, and $460 million in commercial and recreational fishing losses. It might take out 43,000 jobs in the coastal economy, according to the study.
In 2018 an extensive and persistent HAB (what The Paradise Progressive dubbed “the Big Bloom”) of both red tide in the Gulf of Mexico and blue-green algae in the Caloosahatchee River and along the interior shoreline, tormented Southwest Florida.
The Big Bloom led to a variety of measures meant to cope with future blooms. Then-Rep. Francis Rooney, who represented the 19th Congressional District, the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island, from 2017 to 2021, brought together all the federal agencies and local governments dealing with HABs to fashion a coordinated response.
During Rooney’s tenure, the bills never made it out of committee.
When Rooney’s successor, Byron Donalds, took office in 2021, the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act was the first bill he introduced, on March 17 of that year. The Combat Harmful Algal Blooms Act followed on the 24th.
However, like all other legislation he has introduced, Donalds did nothing to advance his own bills. The bills did not move past the introductory phase in the 117th Congress.
Following his re-election in 2022, Donalds reintroduced the bills in the 118th Congress. However, as before, Donalds did nothing to advance them and to date they have not even received subcommittee consideration, the first step toward passage.
Instead, Donalds has concentrated his efforts on out of state political campaigning for former President Donald Trump, attacking the current administration and pursuing his own political ambitions. According to the official congressional database, Congress.gov, Donalds has introduced 63 bills in the current Congress and advanced none of them.
Analysis: The importance of clean water
Water is essential to human existence in the otherwise swampy and hostile tropical environment of Southwest Florida—but not just any water. It must be clean water, consumable by humans, beneficial to animals and nourishing to plants.
Legislation cannot stop HABs but these two pieces of legislation are at least steps that will help Southwest Florida monitor potential blooms and then, when they occur, help businesses and individuals get the same kind of relief and support they would receive in the event of a disaster like a hurricane.
HR 325, the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act, is especially important given the continuing threat of government shutdowns. Once a rare and very damaging occurrence due to partisan brinksmanship, the US federal government now faces a shutdown every other month as Make America Great Again (MAGA) representatives refuse to vote for essential appropriations.
Ironically, Donalds, a member of the extreme MAGA House Freedom Caucus, has consistently voted for shutdowns by vocally opposing critical appropriations. Of all the members of Congress he should be actively pushing this measure to protect Southwest Florida from the consequences of his own votes.
The need to deal with them transcends political party or region. In the United States this is attested to by the fact that HR 325’s only co-sponsor in this Congress, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, (D-7-Mich.), is from Michigan, another state dealing with persistent HABs. Slotkin’s district is centered in the city of Lansing and Lake Lansing has suffered from HABs.
Slotkin is a co-sponsor of another bill, the Protecting Local Communities from Harmful Algal Blooms Act (HR 132) that does the same thing as HR 1008. This bill, introduced by Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-16-Fla.) on Jan. 9, 2023, has six cosponsors; one other Republican, Rep. Mike Kelly, (R-16-Pa.), and five Democrats, three of them Floridians: Reps. Darren Soto, (D-9-Fla.), Kathy Castor (D-14-Fla.) and Frederica Wilson (D-24-Fla.). (The other Democratic co-sponsor is Rep. Hillary Scholten, (D-3-Mich.)).
Interestingly enough, Donalds is not a HR 132 co-sponsor. (The Paradise Progressive reached out to Donalds’ office by e-mail with a question and a request for comment on his bills but received no reply or acknowledgment as of post time.)
Commentary: Paying attention at home
Legislation that helps Florida cope with HABs is vital to the state and region. The Impact report makes clear the specific dollar cost of these events to the region’s economy, industry, quality of life and jobs.
Passage of these measures would benefit the region, at least ensuring that people get some advance warning of developing HABs despite even a government shutdown. If a HAB occurs, people would be entitled to the same government benefits they would get if struck by a hurricane.
But for Southwest Florida to get the aid of this legislation these bills have to be nurtured, advanced and developed by the congressman who introduced them. They have to be pushed through the subcommittee and committee process and then presented to the entire House. That takes work, attention, effort and, most of all, concern for the district and its people.
So far that hasn’t been shown by Donalds on these matters.
Perhaps it’s time for Donalds to worry a little less about New Hampshire, Hunter Biden and Donald Trump and a little bit more about Lee and Collier counties and show that he can actually do the job he was elected to do.
The United States Capitol. (Photo: Architect of the Capitol)
Jan. 19, 2024 by David Silverberg
In a vote yesterday, Jan. 18, that ultimately kept the federal government funded and running until March 1 and March 8 respectively, two out of three of Southwest Florida’s congressional representatives voted to shut down the government, while Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.) dissented.
The bill, House Resolution (HR) 2872, a continuing resolution (CR) but misleadingly named the Permanent Electronic Duck Stamp Act of 2013 in the House, passed by an overwhelming vote of 314 to 108, with 207 Democrats and 107 Republicans voting for it. One hundred six Republicans and two Democrats opposed it.
The bill first passed the Senate on a vote of 77 to 18, with five senators not voting. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) voted for it. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) did not vote.
Reps. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) and Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) voted against the bill.
The bill had been opposed by the extreme Make America Great Again (MAGA) Freedom Caucus of which Donalds is a member.
At 4:30 pm, just prior to the vote, Donalds issued an X statement: “We have a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY right now to actually win the political argument of the day: Should government remain open & prioritizing Ukraine funding over border security? The ONLY WAY to change behavior in DC is with money. You don’t change it with letters & talking points.”
Neither Steube nor Diaz-Balart issued statements immediately before or after the vote.
The CR provides funding for four agencies covered by four appropriations bills that were set to lapse today. Eight more bills were set to expire on Feb. 2 but will now have appropriations until March 8. It was the product of a compromise between Senate Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-4-La.).
The bill was immediately sent to President Joe Biden for signature.
What could be more Southwest Floridian than looking to the future through a crystal ball on the beach?
Dec. 28, 2023 by David Silverberg
We’re coming up on the end of the year, that time when media outlets from newspapers to television stations wind down, go to skeleton crews and put up pastiches of the last year’s photos and clips. It’s easy, undemanding, fills space and air time and gets everyone through the New Year without too much effort.
The temptation to do the same is strong at The Paradise Progressive (TPP). However, its philosophy has always been to look ahead and try to discern the shape of the year to come.
Former President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and sitting President Joe Biden: “This is the political story likely to dominate the year,” predicted TPP and it was correct—up to a point.
The rivalry between Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis was clearly the major political story as the year dawned. But unforeseen was the decline in DeSantis’ standing among potential primary Republican voters and Trump’s resilient popularity despite indictments and criminal charges.
Fate’s cruelest blow to DeSantis was that fact that without a single actual vote cast or a caucus called his campaign relentlessly declined in polls from the day he formally declared his candidacy in April. Once the favorite Republican non-Trump hope, he was steadily eclipsed by his rivals and abandoned by staffers, consultants and most importantly, donors. Trump’s relentless insults and belittlement had its desired effect. Outside of Florida, DeSantis proved inept, awkward and unpopular. What played in The Villages in 2022 did not carry over well to the Republican primary states.
This may be a harbinger for the nation as a whole. It’s an early sign that America does not want to be Florida, no matter what DeSantis says.
The formal campaign season will start with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 and it’s not looking good for Florida’s governor.
At the dawn of the year it wasn’t clear that Joe Biden would declare himself a candidate again. Once he did in April, all the speculation about a successor or a Democratic scramble died down.
So on the campaign front, TPP gives itself an A- for prediction. But this was a bit of a gimme. That there would be rivalries and a nomination contest was indisputable. However, the rapid decline of Ron DeSantis was unforeseen.
Congress and revenge
When it came to Congress, TPP did much better.
Had Republicans resoundingly taken the House of Representatives in the much-anticipated “red wave” of 2022, TPP predicted: “They very well might have impeached President Joe Biden for the high crime of being a Democrat. They would have tried to undo or cover up the felonies of the insurrection and would have done all they could to exonerate, excuse and elevate Trump.”
The prediction continued: “Republicans are still likely to try those things. Expect a cascade of House investigations in an effort to weaken and undermine the administration and Biden’s re-election. It will be a replay of Benghazi and Hillary Clinton’s e-mails on steroids.”
Well, TPP gives itself an A+ on that one. It took them a year but House Republicans are indeed proceeding with an impeachment attempt, despite the lack of a crime, evidence or prospects of success. Biden’s only real transgression? That he is a Democrat and Trump wants it done.
When it comes to trying to “cover up the felonies of the insurrection” the prediction literally came true (extra bonus points!).
On Nov. 17, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-4-La.) stated he would release over 40,000 hours of Jan. 6, 2021 video.
But then, on Dec. 5, he said at a press conference: “We have to blur some of the faces of persons who participated in the events of that day because we don’t want them to be retaliated against and to be charged by the [Department of Justice] and to have other concerns and problems.”
He wants to cover up the faces so that rioters won’t face prosecution?! That is literally a coverup!
TPP’s satisfaction with the accuracy of its prediction is only dampened by the fact that the Speaker of the House is attempting to shield crimes against the branch of government over which he presides. Moreover, he’s doing this with no apparent hint of irony or inconsistency or self-awareness.
Another prediction, that “…when it comes to substantive legislation, Democrats kept the Senate, meaning that no matter how extreme the proposals coming out of the House, none are likely to make it into law,” proved to be true. But that was another gimme.
TPP made much of “the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act, which would ensure that federal activities monitoring and responding to harmful algal blooms like red tide will continue despite any shutdowns” and would be of real benefit to Southwest Florida.
However, as predicted, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) did nothing to advance this legislation in the same way he has never done anything to advance any legislation he sponsored. Donalds’ disinterest in this, other legislation and his district was so obvious that this accurate prediction doesn’t even rate a point.
DeSantis and the race to the right
While TPP saw no reason to expect DeSantis to let up on his culture war on abortion, science, education, vaccines, immigrants, gays and public health, in fact TPP was proven somewhat wrong. As his Trumpish, anti-woke presidential candidacy campaign failed outside Florida, DeSantis began moderating his stances, especially on abortion.
As of right now, that softening looks too little, too late. It is, however, surprising. TPP didn’t see it coming and lowers its grade on this to a C.
However, the jury is still out on the Collier County school district. “The Collier County school system, which was previously rated the gold standard for the state, is now likely to crater as dogma, discipline and docility take the place of education, enquiry and enlightenment as priorities for students,” it predicted.
Collier County schools maintained their A rating from the state in what seems to be momentum from the previous board headed by Jen Mitchell. Also, the appointment of Leslie Ricciardelli as superintendent, despite MAGA demands to the contrary, meant that the district’s previous high standards would be maintained, at least in the classroom.
However, thanks largely to Jerry Rutherford (1st District), the board became enmeshed in extraordinarily time-wasting ideological and religious controversies, especially over whether or not to have a religious invocation precede its meetings. (It ultimately decided not to do so.) This controversy was confined to the school board itself but other issues, especially religious issues, may not stay there in the coming year.
Storm damage
Following the brutal damage of 2022’s Hurricane Ian, TPP observed: “Voters and the local mainstream media have to keep watch and ask: who is helping Southwest Florida recover? Who is helping it get the resources it needs? Who is shirking?”
Local media certainly maintained coverage of the recovery, from restoration of the Sanibel lighthouse, to rebuilding the clock tower in Fort Myers Beach to the extravagantly covered completion and opening of the town’s new Margaritaville resort.
Less covered were government efforts.
Here, there was a very interesting development on the part of Donalds that merits special attention.
In 2021 Donalds didn’t bother to request appropriations for projects in his district (known as “earmarks”) despite the fact that the Democratic-dominated House of Representatives had created a process and procedure allowing each member to request 10 earmarks per district. TPP called Donalds out on this in a March 16, 2022 editorial: Rep. Byron Donalds has failed Southwest Florida and can’t be allowed to do it again.
Despite this, Donalds won his 2022 re-election campaign and apparently got the hint. In the fiscal years since, he has requested earmarks (which congressional Republicans, despite previous agonizing over whether or not to permit them, increased the number allowed each member to 15).
It must be said: TPP didn’t see that coming at all.
But what TPP and just about every other awake person on the planet can see coming is climate change, whose impact is already here.
“Will Florida and its politicians finally acknowledge this?” TPP asked. “Their sense of reality needs critical scrutiny in the year ahead.”
It is long past time that the reality of climate change is acknowledged as a fact, even in reality-resistant Southwest Florida. To their credit, at least local broadcast meteorologists finally started mentioning its effects in their reporting.
DeSantis also finally acknowledged it on the campaign trail in Iowa.
“DeSantis’ own stance has changed: During the first GOP presidential debate, he did not raise his hand when candidates were asked if human activities are warming the planet. But in the Dec. 9 interview with the Register, DeSantis said he does believe human activities are a factor in the changing climate,” observed reporter Katie Akin in the Des Moines Register.
As far as predictions for next year go, this is an easy one: climate change and its impact will continue in the coming year. Southwest Florida needs to prepare.
An end to 2023
Overall, as a prognostication, TPP’s look ahead didn’t come out too badly. It didn’t try to predict everything that happened but where it looked, its analysis proved reasonably prescient.
What wasn’t predicted were actions by individuals. For example, even Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-23-Calif.) probably couldn’t have predicted that he would have such a hard time getting elected Speaker of the House—and then that he would be ignominiously booted nine months later and resign from Congress altogether at the end of 2023.
Next year promises to be one of the most momentous, historic and potentially dangerous in world history. It requires an entirely different analysis.
As the New Testament noted, to look into the future is to see through a glass, darkly. Once face to face all things become clearer. But maybe, with enough concentration, we can discern at least the general shape of things to come—and prepare to meet them.
_____________________
Coming, starting Jan. 1:
Part I – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead in American politics
Part II – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead abroad
Part III – A democracy, if you can keep it: Collier County, Fla., 2024 and the war on competence
Rep. Byron Donalds, other members of the Freedom Caucus and Rep. George Santos (lower right), watch the expulsion vote on the House floor. (Image: NBC)
Dec. 1, 2023 by David Silverberg
The United States House of Representatives voted this morning to expel Rep. George Santos (R-3-NY) from the body for a wide variety of ethical lapses and alleged crimes.
The vote on House Resolution 878 was 311 to 114 with 206 Democrats and 105 Republicans voting to expel and 112 Republicans and 2 Democrats voting to keep Santos in office. Two members voted “present” and eight did not vote.
Southwest Florida Reps. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) and Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) voted against expulsion.
However, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.) voted for expulsion.
As of this writing, none of the members explained their votes on social media platforms, although they actively made statements on a variety of other topics.
“Representative Santos sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.
“He blatantly stole from his campaign.
“He deceived donors into providing what they thought were contributions to his campaign but were in fact payments for his personal benefit.
“He reported fictitious loans to his political committees to induce donors and party committees to make further contributions to his campaign – and then diverted more campaign money to himself as purported ‘repayments’ of those fictitious loans.
“He used his connections to high value donors and other political campaigns to obtain additional funds for himself through fraudulent or otherwise questionable business dealings.
“And he sustained all of this through a constant series of lies to his constituents, donors, and staff about his background and experience.”
The Paradise Progressive 