Getting beyond screaming matches, horse races and harangues: Debate and the future of democracy

 The Roman Senate is addressed by Cicero as it debates the expulsion of one of its members, Cataline, for plotting to overthrow the republic. (Painting: Cesare Maccari, 1889) 

Nov. 5, 2023 by David Silverberg

This coming Wednesday, Nov. 8, if all goes as scheduled, Republican presidential candidates will gather in Miami, Florida at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County for their third, nationally televised debate.

This one will be hosted by the NBC network and moderated by anchors Lester Holt, Kristen Welker and Hugh Hewitt, a conservative radio talk show host. It will have the legitimacy of a traditional, mainstream media event, so no matter how anti-media the candidates have been, they cannot escape its credibility and real impact.

It’s not clear as of this writing which candidates will qualify to be on stage. But what is almost 100 percent certain is that the leading Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, will deliberately be absent.

“I’m up 56 Points, so the Debates would seem to be a complete waste of time,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sept. 28. “The Debates should be ENDED, BAD for the Republican Party!”

As usual, Trump completely misunderstands the nature and value of debate. He prefers to have people unquestioningly obey his own dictatorial dictums. He’s most comfortable delivering his rambling, stream-of-consciousness harangues to an utterly accepting audience of believers.

However, his dismissal of debate is also revealing of how trivial and superficial political debate in America has become. This is a pity because debate is the very essence of democracy, indeed, of non-violent discussion and change.

So with a major, if crippled, debate coming to Florida’s shores, it’s perhaps a good time to examine the nature of debate, its value and its elemental place in the democratic process.

The Merriam Webster Dictionary defines debate as “a contention by words or arguments” and “a regulated discussion of a proposition between two matched sides.”

As a verb, to debate is “to argue about” and “to engage (an opponent) in debate” or “to turn over in one’s mind: to think about (something, such as different options) in order to decide.”

There are many kinds of debate in many fields. But when it comes to candidate debates, at its core, a debate’s real purpose is to give voters the opportunity to examine and weigh candidates, their records and proposals in an absolutely equal, apples-to-apples setting. Voters should emerge from a debate informed, enlightened and ready to make a reasoned, intelligent choice at the ballot box.

It’s not the screaming or the insults or the horserace or even the resulting poll numbers that make a debate worthwhile. It is the education of the public.

Of course, that’s not how it has always played out and certainly not recently.

The cornerstone

Free, open and unfettered debate pervades all democratic governance, whether in legislative lawmaking, executive rulemaking or in citizen selection of governing officials, i.e, elections.

From the very beginning of democracy in Athens, Greece, through the Roman Republic to our own time, debate is essential to government decisionmaking.

This was embodied in the very first official document of what would become the United States of America, the Declaration of Independence:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”

Reaching that “consent of the governed” can only be achieved through debate.

There can be debates over different courses of action in autocracies but those debates are usually limited to a few councilors around the autocrat, who makes a decision in his own mind and then imposes it on everyone else.

Throughout American history there were debates of enormous consequence: the Constitution itself was forged through debate; the country was held together through compromises in 1820 and 1850 after debates over nullification of federal law and the expansion of slavery.

Perhaps the greatest example and archetype of all American political debates were those held between Republican challenger Abraham Lincoln and Democratic Sen. Stephen Douglas in 1858. Held in each of Illinois’ nine congressional districts, the debates largely covered the question of slavery’s expansion and received saturation coverage from the nation’s newspapers, elevating Lincoln to national status.

As an incumbent, Douglas was initially reluctant to debate. But he was branded a coward by his opponents and the newspapers, forcing his hand. There was a penalty to be paid for dodging debate.

Douglas defeated Lincoln for the US Senate seat for Illinois, which was decided by the state legislature. Lincoln went on to win the presidency in 1860. But importantly, their debates set the archetype for candidate campaigning and proper conduct in American elections until our own time.

Television and trivialization

Debates have been a cornerstone of American election ritual at all levels of government. So routine and fundamental were they that singers Simon and Garfunkel mocked them in the song “Mrs. Robinson” when they listed ordinary, banal activities: “Sitting on a sofa on a Sunday afternoon, Going to the candidates debate.”

What has happened over time, though, is the gradual trivialization of what should be serious discussions and an ever-growing media obsession with the horse race aspects. As soon as the screen fades to black after a debate there’s an obsession by pundits and politicians with who “won” the debate. Politicians gather in “spin rooms” off the debate stage to influence media coverage. There’s little to no real analysis of policies, positions or records. After all, that stuff is boring.

The trivialization seems to have begun with the introduction of television. The first televised presidential debates came in 1960 between Democratic Sen. John Kennedy and Republican Vice President Richard Nixon. While the debate covered policy substance (and people listening on radio thought that Nixon won on points) Nixon’s perspiration and five o’clock shadow were thought to have lost him favor with the audience.

Clever comebacks and bon mots have always been an element of debate and they certainly have an impact on voters. When in 1984 Republican President Ronald Reagan debated Democratic former Vice President Walter Mondale, he torpedoed the issue of his age (73) with the line: “I want you to know I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Mondale was no stranger to his own deft thrusts. Earlier that year he skewered the lack of policy substance in his primary opponent during a debate with Sen. Gary Hart by asking him, “Where’s the beef?”

Debates may have become increasingly trivialized but there’s no doubt that their quality plunged in 2016 with the arrival of Donald Trump. His campaign was full of lies and insults and crudeness that spilled onto the debate stage both at the primary and general election levels. He dragged political discourse into a gutter from which it has not arisen to date. The screaming matches of the previous two Republican primary debates are evidence of this.

There’s also no denying that Trump’s performances worked for him with Republican primary voters and won him the nomination. However, given that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 million votes, it’s debatable whether those same tactics scored in the general election.

But if reasonable debate has been damaged, it’s being damaged further by attacks on the very institution of candidate debate itself.

Southwest Florida and the decline of debate

In 2018 in Southwest Florida’s 19th Congressional District, the coastal area from Cape Coral to Marco Island, incumbent Republican Rep. Francis Rooney was running against Democratic challenger David Holden.

In September of that year the Collier County League of Women Voters set a date for a debate and invited both candidates to attend. Holden accepted immediately. Rooney responded that he had “no availability” on that date—and “no future availability.” What was more, he stated he had no need to debate because “everyone knows my positions.”

In days gone past, a debate would have been held anyway with an empty chair representing the absent candidate—or, as in the Lincoln-Douglas debates, the non-debater would have been branded a coward. In any event, refusing a debate would have come with a price paid in public opprobrium and at the voting booth.

That didn’t happen in Southwest Florida. All the institutions that should defend democracy, the civic organizations, the media and other politicians, remained silent and cowed. There was no debate, there was no penalty for Rooney and voters remained uninformed. Rooney never had to defend his record or the policies he was pursuing and voters never saw him face to face with his opponent.

Rooney wasn’t alone. Other Republican candidates that year dodged debates altogether rather than be forced to defend Trump and his policies—and got away with it.

At least in 2020 Trump was forced to debate his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, in person, on stage. Trump performed abysmally, coming across as crude, rude, impatient and ignorant.

Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who praised Trump at the time, has now revised his assessment of that debate.

“This is something you have to earn. Nobody is entitled to this,” DeSantis said in a Fox News interview on Sept. 28. “You know, I remember back in 2020, I had a big party in Tallahassee for that first debate that Trump did with Biden. And the reality is Biden beat Trump in that debate—Biden—and I don’t know how you can lose to Biden in a debate, but that happened.”

Now Trump is dismissing debates altogether and calling for their end. His opponents are understandably infuriated. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has branded Trump “Donald Duck” for ducking previous debates.

DeSantis is saying that Trump is hiding behind a keyboard by issuing social media insults rather than coming out to debate. DeSantis has suddenly become a great advocate of debating.

“You know, it’s one thing to do it behind a keyboard; step up on stage and do it to my face,” he told Fox anchor Bill Hemmer. “I’m ready for it. You used to say I was a great governor. Now all of a sudden you’re saying the opposite. Let’s have that discussion. And I’ll do it, we could do it one-on-one. Let’s do that. And let’s give the American people the choice that they deserve.”

For once, DeSantis is right. Voters deserve the right to see candidates for election—for any office—together, in person, debating the issues, their records and their proposals.

Quite clearly Trump doesn’t want to debate. He’s a terrible performer in a real debate and he just wants to continue his digressive rants to an adoring and unthinking mob. He wants election without having to defend his past or reveal his future. His Trumplike minions running for office down the ballot want similar validation without facing scrutiny.

But more, Trump doesn’t want debate of any kind in any sphere. He tried to overthrow the legislative branch of government where laws are debated. He wants to just dictate his version of reality.

That’s not democracy. That’s dictatorship.

It’s long past time to bring back serious, substantial political debates at all levels. American democracy depends on it.

Trump—and any candidate for any office—should pay a steep price for dodging this basic rite of democracy. Civic organizations like the League of Women Voters need to step up and do their part. They need to make candidates who ignore or avoid debates pay a price. Such candidates should be publicly shamed and debates should proceed without them, using an empty chair. Their opponents should benefit from their absence and cowardice.

It would also be worthwhile if the media tried to bring at least a little more seriousness into their commentary and analysis. It would be beneficial if at least one member of a panel of pundits actually examined what the candidates say in a debate and evaluated the substance of their policy proposals—if they have any.

But most of all, it’s long past time that debates were returned to their fundamental purpose: educating voters and giving them the opportunity to make a rational, informed choice when they consent to be governed. After all, as the saying goes, “elections have consequences” and the results of those elections fundamentally affect every person’s life. People should know what they’re getting.

That kind of education is not to be expected in Miami on Wednesday night. But that doesn’t in any way invalidate the ideal and value of a rational, orderly, substantive debate.

Debate may be an imperfect means of assessing candidates and making decisions. But to paraphrase what Winston Churchill once said of democracy itself, it’s the worst possible means— except for all the others that have been tried from time to time.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

The Donalds Dossier: He’s just not that into you, Byron

The tragedy of Trump’s Complete and Total disrespect

Rep. Byron Donalds and former President Donald Trump in a 2020 Donalds campaign advertisement. (Photo:Campaign)

Oct. 30, 2023 by David Silverberg

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) built his brand as “everything the fake news media says doesn’t exist: a Trump supporting, liberty loving, pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment black man.”

That “Trump-supporting” clause is especially important. Time and again Donalds has reaffirmed his vocal, visceral, and vehement love, adoration and worship of former President Donald Trump.

But time and again, especially when Donalds most needed it, Trump has responded with absence, indifference or disinterest.

That was never more apparent than in the most recent battle for Speaker of the House. After initially saying he was going to stay out of the Republican congressional fight, Trump weighed in mightily on behalf of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-4-Ohio) but other members of the caucus resisted. When Republicans next picked Rep. Tom Emmer (R-6-Minn.), Trump felt Emmer was insufficiently worshipful and intervened to defeat him.

Ultimately, all the Republicans coalesced around Rep. Michael Johnson (R-4-La.) and voted him as Speaker, last Wednesday, Oct. 25.

In all of this drama, what Trump never did was endorse or support Donalds who was in the race, then out of the race, then in the race again, then defeated and out for good.

This is nothing new. Trump’s slights and oversights of Donalds have been well documented in these pages over the years. The big question is: why?

Endorsements and their impact

All endorsements in political races are important. An endorsement both sways votes but it also conveys a seal of approval and allegiance. Their timing is also important; an endorsement at a critical moment can make all the difference in a close race.

Trump has made endorsements something of an art form. In the past his endorsement clearly carried enormous weight among a fanatically devoted following who would obey his wishes.

Perhaps the most famous Trump endorsement was of then-Rep. Ronald DeSantis for governor of Florida in 2018. The two men have differing versions of how it came about: DeSantis recalls that he merely asked Trump for his endorsement; Trump says that DeSantis came with tears in his eyes begging Trump to save a failing primary campaign.

However it came about, there is no doubt that the Trump endorsement made an enormous difference in the primary contest, enabling DeSantis to win. In the general election it helped DeSantis barely edge out Democrat Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee.

When he endorsed DeSantis, Trump reached down to involve himself in a Republican primary. That was territory where presidents traditionally didn’t go. In the past, party leaders would let primary contests play out at the local level and then endorse the party’s nominee.

But Trump was ready, willing and able to reach way down the ballot with his endorsements in primary and party races. His criterion was based on the candidate’s personal loyalty to him rather than the party or any abstract idea or policy.

In 2020 Trump intervened in other intra-party contests in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Indiana. He even reached way down the chain of command to oust the Republican Party chairman of Ohio for opposing him. No office was too low or obscure to escape his intervention.

In general, during his time in office Trump had a seemingly uncanny ability to elevate candidates and get them elected when he gave them “my complete and total endorsement.”

That’s exactly what Byron Donalds needed in 2020.

The 2020 race

Then-state Rep. Byron Donalds (center) addresses a Trump rally at the Collier County Fairgrounds, Oct. 23,, 2016. (Image: CSPAN)

The 19th Congressional District of Southwest Florida had a particularly tumultuous contest in 2020. After two terms in Congress, Rep. Francis Rooney announced that he would not be running again, this after stating he was open to reviewing Trump impeachment evidence, a high crime and misdemeanor in Republican circles.

Sensing an easy win, at one point a dozen Republican candidates jumped into the primary fight for nomination in the district.

Byron Donalds was just one of these. He had the advantage of already representing the 80th District of the Florida House, a rural district that included the farming, mostly immigrant town of Immokalee.

Donalds had switched from Democrat to Republican after marrying his current wife, Erika, in 2003. After initially dismissing Trump as a “self-promoter” in 2011, before Trump became professionally involved in politics, in 2016 he threw himself into the Trump election effort. He addressed a Trump rally at the Collier County fairgrounds with his own ringing endorsement.

Eventually, the 2020 congressional primary race stabilized at nine candidates, of whom the leaders were state Rep. Dane Eagle and businessman Casey Askar. All vied to out-Trump each other, highlighting their loyalty, extremism and cultic enthusiasm in an effort to win the Make America Great Again (MAGA) voters who would determine the primary winner.

At any point, a Trump endorsement would have determined the outcome.

But for all his intervention in Republican primaries around the country, Trump chose not to get involved in this one. There was an element of caution in Trump’s endorsements by that time. He didn’t want to break his winning streak, so by 2020 he increasingly bet on surer candidates, particularly those who were incumbents or who had no opposition.

Donalds didn’t fall into that category. For a long time Eagle seemed the most likely anointee. Ultimately, there was no Trump endorsement. Donalds barely eked out a victory on his own, with Collier County providing the winning margin.

It was the first time he could have really used a Trump bump but he didn’t get it.

However, once he won the primary Donalds was endorsed by Trump in a Sept. 10 tweet. Trump wrote that he “will be a phenomenal Congressman for the people of Florida!” and “Byron is a Rising Star! He has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” (Capitalization, of course, his.).

Once Donalds was confirmed as the nominee, Trump had a chance to endorse Donalds in person when he came to Fort Myers on Oct. 16, 2020. All the Republican grandees were present.

However, Donalds tested positive for COVID-19 before the event and had to stay away.

Once on stage Trump did shout-outs to DeSantis, whom he compared to Elvis (and praised the thickness of his shoulder muscles), and Reps. Gus Bilirakis (R-12-Fla.) and Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.). Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson (who had run for the congressional seat) and Cape Coral Mayor Joe Coviello (R) received praise.

But there was no mention of Donalds.

This was particularly noteworthy given that it was a chance for Trump to promote a prospective Republican member of Congress who would be implementing the Trump agenda in a second term. Of all the people to mention, it was the Republican candidate in the midst of an election race who should have been spotlighted.

But once infected he was rejected. It was as though Donalds had vanished from the MAGAverse.

Donalds won his race anyway. Trump lost his.

The leadership races

Rep.-elect Byron Donalds signs the pledge to overturn the 2020 election. (Photo: Office of Byron Donalds)

Like a good Trumper Donalds voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election. On Jan. 6, 2021 he even attended the “Stop the Steal” rally on the National Mall. He then signed a statement objecting to the election certification and voted against it. Although he later denounced the rioters as “thugs,” he never criticized Trump for inciting the violence.

After the insurrection he faithfully upheld the Big Lie that Trump had won. He put out reams of social media postings and did right-wing media interviews upholding Trumpist orthodoxy.

After Trump’s defeat, Donalds was present when Trump flew into Naples for fundraisers. The first time, on Dec. 3, 2021, Trump stealthily flew into town in the night and held his event at a Naples Airport hangar before departing equally secretively.

The second time, Dec. 4, 2022, occurred with more advanced notice but still at a secret location in Naples. It was more public in its purpose: to support “school choice” and benefit Hurricane Ian victims. Tickets started at $10,000 for individuals. The visit came a day after Trump had called for suspending the US Constitution.

In 2022 Donalds’ re-election run was far less perilous than his initial campaign. Trump endorsed him again, along with numerous other Republican incumbents. Donalds won both his primary and general election races with comfortable margins.

Leadership hopes

Now that he was in Congress for a second term, Donalds had ambitions to rise in the Republican congressional hierarchy.

His first opportunity came in November 2022 when he decided to challenge Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-21-NY) for chairmanship of the House Republican Conference, the third highest position in the caucus leadership. The Conference is the Party’s primary means of communicating its message among the Republican members.

Donalds put together a slick promotional video, titled “Championing Conservative Principles and Ushering In a New Republican Perspective to GOP House Leadership” that presented him as a rising star in the Republican Party. He was the Freedom Caucus candidate for the slot.

This was a time when a Trump endorsement would have made a big difference. But Trump ignored Donalds and endorsed Stefanik, whom he called one of the “greatest warriors” of the America First movement and a “rising star” in the Republican Party. She had joined the chorus of Trumpers condemning Republican members on the January 6 Committee investigating the riot and insurrection.

“Elise has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” Trump wrote. Sure enough, she won against Donalds with a resounding 144 to 44 victory on Nov. 15. Donalds may have been a dedicated Trumper but apparently not dedicated enough.

Trump may have had other things on his mind: the day of the Conference vote was also the day he announced his candidacy for the presidency again.

Donalds’ next opportunity to make a bid for the leadership came on Jan. 7, 2023.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-23-Calif.) became mired in a struggle to win the House Speakership.

In the midst of the contest Donalds was nominated for Speaker by fellow Freedom Caucus members Reps. Chip Roy (R-21-Texas) and then Lauren Boebert (R-3-Colo.). Donalds’ candidacy lasted eight rounds of balloting.

Once again, a Trump endorsement would have made a significant difference for Donalds. For a moment it appeared that Trump had endorsed Donalds—but Trump shot down the rumor as “Fake and Fraudulent.

Trump endorsed McCarthy instead. In the end, Donalds withdrew and backed McCarthy as well.

Donalds’ endorsement

Trump was hardly the only one to making endorsements. In 2023 Donalds made a big endorsement of his own.

Given that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was planning to run for president, all Florida Republicans were facing a thorny dilemma and a dangerous choice between two vindictive, petty men who didn’t forget slights easily. Donalds had a foot in both camps, having extravagantly praised both politicians.

On Monday, March 20, when Trump announced that he was going to be arrested the next day, Donalds rushed to his defense and re-pledged his allegiance to the embattled former President.

On April 6, Donalds was the first Florida politician to endorse Trump over DeSantis, turning his back on the governor, with whom he had been close, at least in public.

In a lengthy statement Donalds argued that Trump would get the country “back on track, provide strength and resolve and make America great again.” The endorsement made headlines at a critical time in the Republican presidential nominating race.

So Donalds had prominently, publicly and extravagantly made clear his undying fealty and complete subservience to the now-indicted former president. Surely, that love and loyalty would be reciprocated.

Right?

The latest round

McCarthy reigned as Speaker for nine months before being overthrown on Oct. 3, inaugurating three weeks of turmoil and uncertainty. During the course of it, Donalds again made a bid for Speaker.

Initially Rep. Steve Scalise (R-1-La.) was the leading contender. But he abandoned his quest after about a day in the face of fanatical MAGA opposition.

Next up was Rep. Jim Jordan (R-4-Ohio), a loud, rude, disruptive Trumper in the true master’s style. Trump enthusiastically endorsed Jordan, calling him a “STAR” (in all caps!) and arguing “He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!”

This time, though, the Republican caucus pushed back in the face of threats and bullying by Trump, Jordan and grassroots zealots. Despite the Trump endorsement, after three rounds of voting, Jordan couldn’t clinch the 217 votes needed for Speaker. It seemed that the Trump endorsement magic had worn off among the Republican caucus.

Next up was Rep. Tom Emmer (R-6-Minn.), the House majority whip and the second man in the Republican congressional hierarchy. Initially considered a likely winner and acceptable to Trump, instead Trump turned on him, calling him “totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters” and a “Globalist RINO” (Republican In Name Only). He worked the phones against Emmer.

Emmer’s crime? According to a Politico article, “‘I killed him’: How Trump torpedoed Tom Emmer’s speaker bid,” Emmer had the temerity to criticize Trump for the Jan. 6 riot and insurrection in 2021 and re-posted a Trump comment that the two had always gotten along—which indicated they were closer than Trump preferred.

Trump’s ability to dispose of Emmer indicated that while he might not have the strength to get his preferred candidate elected he still could veto anyone he didn’t like.

With Emmer gone the race became wide open and nine Republicans jumped in—among them, Donalds. He was quickly endorsed by fellow Southwest Floridian, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.) and numerous other Republican Floridians.

As in the nine-candidate race Donalds had faced in Southwest Florida in 2020, a Trump endorsement might have made all the difference.

Trump had shown the strength of his negative voodoo but could he reclaim his past magical powers? Would he cast his spell on Donalds’ behalf? Would he raise the ambitious sophomore to Speaker?

But once again Trump chose to ignore Donalds.

“I am not going to make an Endorsement in this race, because I COULD NEVER GO AGAINST ANY OF THESE FINE AND VERY TALENTED MEN, all of whom have supported me, in both mind and spirit, from the very beginning of our GREAT 2016 Victory. My strong SUGGESTION is to go with the leading candidate, Mike Johnson,” he posted on Truth Social on Wednesday morning, Oct. 25.

Finally, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-4-La.) received enough votes to become Speaker. His ideas might be those of Trump and MAGA world, but his behavior was that of a country club Republican—and much more acceptable to the caucus.

All Southwest Florida Republican congressmen voted for Johnson, including Donalds.

The big question

At every inflection point, when his endorsement could have made a significant difference in Rep. Byron Donalds’ political career, former President Donald Trump has chosen to ignore, overlook and disregard his faithfully loyal, utterly obedient, slavishly adoring acolyte from Florida’s Gulf coast. On this, at least, he has shown a most unusual consistency.

Why?

Why does Donald Trump consistently ignore Byron Donalds? Why does Donald Trump refuse to support Byron Donalds as he seeks to rise up the hierarchy of the Republican congressional caucus? Why does Donald Trump never publicly reward Donalds’ extravagant expressions of fealty? Why is Donald Trump always absent at the critical moments when Byron Donalds needs him most? And why does Donald Trump look Byron Donalds in the face but never seem to see him?

Until Donald Trump provides an explanation, the public can only wonder—and guess.

Byron Donalds embraces Donald Trump at a 2019 awards ceremony in South Carolina. (Image: Donalds campaign)

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Joe, Ron, Don: Who were Idalia’s winners and losers?

Gov. Ron DeSantis, President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump. (Illustration: Neil Freese, UC Berkeley)

Sept. 9, 2023 by David Silverberg

Natural disasters create political winners and losers.

As a general rule, disasters favor incumbents—but only if they perform well.

Florida has just been through Hurricane Idalia. So how well did the three of America’s top politicians (two in Florida) perform in response? And what are the likely political consequences of their actions?

Joe on the spot

President Joe Biden, with a map of Florida, coordinates the federal response to Hurricane Idalia. (Photo: White House)

For a sitting president, disasters are dicey propositions. A responsible president wants to be alert and aware of all developments and take whatever actions are necessary to aid and support the victims and the response. He wants to do all this without seeming to exploit the situation for political or partisan benefit.

A good example of this occurred in 1969 when President Richard Nixon stayed in touch with affected governors in the run-up to Hurricane Camille. As the storm approached the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coasts, Nixon appointed Vice President Spiro Agnew to personally handle states’ needs. Mississippi Gov. John Bell Williams received a phone call from Agnew. “…The Vice President of the United States wanted us to know in advance that they stood ready and anxious to assist us in any way that they could,” Bell said afterwards.

Today the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) handles all the preparing, prepositioning, mobilizing and coordinating when a storm is about to strike. (Of course, sudden, unexpected disasters like the Maui wildfires pose different challenges.) There are well-established protocols before, during and after the event.

Once the disaster has occurred all officials face new choices. High-profile executives like presidents, governors and mayors want to get a sense of the scope of the disaster with a personal visit and provide comfort and show concern for the victims. Against this is the concern that a visit will interfere with operations and rescues. Moreover, failing to visit in person or waiting too long can seem to signal indifference or neglect.

An example of one of the worst presidential responses to a disaster came in 2005 when President George W. Bush, chose to fly over the stricken city of New Orleans in Air Force One. He hadn’t responded to the storm when it struck the city days earlier and his distance and the superficiality of his flyover suggested callousness and disengagement. It was no substitute for a visit on the ground.

Biden has seen many disasters and responses during his time as a US Senator, Vice President and President, so Hurricane Idalia was nothing new. Just ten days before Hurricane Idalia hit, he visited wildfire-stricken Maui.

Before the storm, Biden was in contact with all the governors of the likely affected states. After speaking to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) he prepared an emergency declaration so Floridians would get the federal support they needed once the hurricane struck.

With Biden’s approval, FEMA surged emergency personnel into the affected area and got endangered residents out.

“As a matter of fact, I have asked that [FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell] get on a plane and leave for Florida this afternoon,” he announced on Aug. 31.  “She will meet with Governor DeSantis tomorrow and begin helping, conducting the federal assessment at my direction.”

He also told the press corps: “I let each governor I spoke with know that if there’s anything — anything the states need right now, I am ready to mobilize that support of what they need.”

He also convened a Cabinet meeting to make sure that all federal departments and agencies contributed to a “whole-of-government” response.

That may seem like an obvious action to take but that hasn’t always been the presidential response in past disasters.

Particularly dicey was Biden’s relationship with DeSantis, who as a Republican presidential candidate had been relentlessly criticizing and attacking him. However, the two had experience working together on other disaster responses: the Surfside building collapse in 2021 and Hurricane Ian in 2022.

Biden was asked directly about this by a reporter: “Mr. President, Governor DeSantis is also running for president.  You are running for reelection.  Do you sense any politics in your conversations with him about this issue?”

Biden answered: “No, believe it or not.  I know that sounds strange, especially how — looking at the nature of politics today.

“But, you know, I was down there when…the last major storm.  I spent a lot of time with him, walking from village to — from community to community, making sure he had what he needed to get it done.  I think he trusts my judgment and my desire to help.  And I trust him to be able to suggest that he’s… .This is not about politics.  This is about taking care of the people of his state.”

Biden came to Live Oak, Fla., on Saturday, Sept. 2 to see Idalia’s damage for himself.

“I’m here today to deliver a clear message to the people of Florida and throughout the Southeast,” he said, standing in front of a home with a massive, downed tree in the background. “As I told your governor: If there is anything your state needs, I’m ready to mobilize that support — anything they need related to these storms.  Your nation has your back, and we’ll be with you until the job is done.”

Of course, DeSantis wasn’t present to hear those words.

Ron returns

Gov. Ron DeSantis gives one of his press conferences regarding Hurricane Idalia. (Photo: NBC)

On Saturday, Aug. 26, while still campaigning in South Carolina, DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 33 Florida counties. This allowed the Florida National Guard to mobilize 1,100 troops and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to assign officers and mobile command units to hurricane response. Throughout the state, government agencies prepared for the impact, including the Florida Highway Patrol and the departments of Commerce and Transportation.

On Sunday, Aug. 27, DeSantis suspended campaigning and returned to Florida to oversee the Idalia response.

“We’re locked down on this. We’re gonna get the job done. This is important, so people can rest assured,” DeSantis told reporters during a briefing at the state Emergency Management Center. Asked where he’d be for the next week, he replied: “I am here. I am here.”

DeSantis wasn’t just returning to a hurricane; on Aug. 26 a racist gunman in Jacksonville randomly killed three black shoppers at a Dollar General store before committing suicide. On Sunday DeSantis was booed when he attended a vigil honoring the dead.

But the hurricane was an ongoing and impending threat that demanded attention. In the days that followed, as Idalia strengthened, traveled up the coast and made landfall in the Big Bend region, DeSantis focused on his gubernatorial duties, regularly briefed the media, and warned Floridians of potential dangers and urged precautions. He seemed in command, both of the forces on the ground and of the facts.

DeSantis didn’t just suspend his in-person campaigning, he also suspended his hostility to Biden.

“When you have situations like this, you’ve got to put the interests of the people first,” DeSantis told reporters in Tallahassee the next day. “There’s time and a place to have [a] political season, but then there’s a time and a place to say that this is something that’s life-threatening. This is something that could potentially cost somebody their life, that could cost them their livelihood. And we have a responsibility as Americans to come together and do what we can to mitigate any damage and to protect people.”

He appeared authoritative and knowledgeable and when Idalia made landfall and moved on, the DeSantis campaign was ready to make the most of it.

Andrew Romeo, DeSantis campaign communications director, issued a campaign memo praising DeSantis in for “Strong Leadership” and a “Swift Response.”

In the memo, obtained by Florida Politics reporter Jacob Ogles, which provided talking points for DeSantis supporters, Romeo stated: “The DeSantis Administration helped guide the state through another historic storm.” He noted that, “As part of that effort, Ron DeSantis appropriately left the presidential campaign trail to focus on the needs of Floridians.”

Democrats were unimpressed. “It’s the bare minimum,” said state Rep. Anna Eskamani (D-42-Orlando). “In the context of responding to a hurricane, of course you’re supposed to be here and to help communicate what first responders are doing. In the context of innocent people being murdered for the color of their skin by a racist gunman, the bare minimum is to express condolences with loved ones.”

After Idalia passed, DeSantis faced a new choice: how to react to Biden’s visit? Now that the immediate emergency was over, it was time for politics.

On the one hand, DeSantis and Biden had seemed to reach a truce in order to serve Floridians.

Much depended on where and when the President would visit.

According to FEMA Administrator Criswell, the White House took operational issues into consideration when choosing the place and time and informed DeSantis in advance.

“When the president contacted the governor to let him know he was going to be visiting … the governor’s team and my team mutually agreed on a place that would have minimal impact into operations,” Criswell said on the program CNN This Morning. “Live Oak, you know, the power is being restored. The roads aren’t blocked, but there’s families that are hurting there.”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed Criswell’s account, saying: “The president spoke with the governor. It was an understanding. The president said to him he was coming to Florida. We never heard any disagreement with it.”

Biden said he expected to meet DeSantis when he arrived.

But the day before, DeSantis announced that he wouldn’t be present.

“We don’t have any plans for the Governor to meet with the President tomorrow,” Jeremy Redfern, DeSantis’ press secretary, announced in a press statement. “In these rural communities, and so soon after impact, the security preparations alone that would go into setting up such a meeting would shut down ongoing recovery efforts.”

Once he was in Live Oak, Biden was asked if he was disappointed that DeSantis was absent.

“No, I’m not disappointed,” Biden responded. “He may have had other reasons because…but he did help us plan this. He sat with FEMA and decided where we should go, where it’d be the least disruption.”

In pointed contrast, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a bitter rival of DeSantis, was present and had fulsome praise for Biden.

“First off, the President did a great job with the early declaration before the storm hit the coast. That was a big deal. It helped all these first responders,” said Scott, who as governor had weathered Hurricane Irma. “And then with how fast you approved through FEMA the individual assistance, the public assistance and debris pickup is a big deal to everyone in these communities.”

Biden, for his part, said he was “very pleased” that Scott was present even though politically they do not agree on “very much at all.” That was especially gracious given that last year after Hurricane Ian and just before his visit to Southwest Florida, Scott called Biden “a raving lunatic.

Another of DeSantis’ political rivals had sharp words for his absence from the president’s visit—and he spoke from hard experience.

Then-Gov. Chris Christie greets President Barack Obama in 2012 after Hurricane Sandy struck New Jersey. (Photo: NJ Governor’s Office)

On Oct. 29, 2012, amidst a presidential campaign, Hurricane Sandy came ashore in Brigantine, NJ as a Category 3 storm and did tremendous damage to the Garden State and neighboring New York City. Republican Chris Christie was then the governor and was considered a leading vice presidential candidate for nominee Mitt Romney and a potential contender in 2016.

When Democratic President Barack Obama, running for re-election, offered help to the stricken state, Christie eagerly accepted it and praised the president, whose assistance he called “outstanding.”

“I want to thank the president personally for his personal attention to this,” said Christie at the time, adding later that Obama kept all his promises. When Obama arrived on the last day of October to see the damage for himself, Christie hugged him and faced scorn and vituperation from fellow Republicans ever afterwards.

So Christie, a presidential candidate this year, knew whereof he spoke when it came to disasters and presidential visits.

“Your job as Governor is to be the tour guide for the President. It’s to make sure the President sees your people, sees the damage, sees the suffering, what’s going on, and what’s going to need to be done to rebuild it. You’re doing your job. And unfortunately, he put politics ahead of his job. That was his choice,” Christie said of DeSantis in a television interview.

He continued: “I’m not the least bit surprised that that’s what he chose to do. You’re the governor of the state. The President of the United States comes and you’re asking the President of the United States or the Congress for significant aid, which Ron DeSantis is doing, and especially if you voted against it ten years ago for Sandy aid, you should have been there with the President to welcome it.” That last reference was a bit of payback for DeSantis’ vote when he was a congressman to deny an appropriations bill that helped New Jersey.

DeSantis maintained he spent the day touring other places. “I was in the communities that were the hardest hit by the storm. And Joe Biden didn’t go to those areas, I think correctly, because the whole security apparatus would have shut down the recovery. So I was exactly where I needed to be,” DeSantis said in a television interview at the end of the day.

Missing man

Former President Donald Trump.

Former President Donald Trump did not have any executive authority or operational responsibilities during Hurricane Idalia. However, he was a Florida resident and a presidential candidate, so his actions and pronouncements were in the public domain.

Like both Biden and DeSantis he had experience with disasters. On Sept. 14, 2017 he visited Fort Myers and Naples after Hurricane Irma, accompanied by his wife Melania and Vice President Mike Pence. He offered words of thanks and encouragement to first responders and in East Naples handed out sandwiches. This followed a visit to Texas and Louisiana to see the effects of Hurricane Harvey, which had struck 16 days earlier.  Then, on Oct. 4, he visited Puerto Rico, which had been struck by Hurricane Maria. It was on that occasion that he infamously tossed paper towels to a church full of hurricane victims.

This year, Trump did not take any actions or make any statements related to the hurricane, which bypassed his Palm Beach home, Mar-a-Lago.

He did, however, maintain a drumbeat of criticism of DeSantis on his Truth Social media platform, ranging from floating a false statement that DeSantis had dropped out of the race to attacking him for Florida’s high insurance rates.

“Trump ignored the storm for days, instead posting a litany of insults aimed at his political adversaries while highlighting positive poll numbers for his campaign,” reported Max Greenwood in the Tampa Bay Times on Aug. 31.

“By the time Trump mentioned Hurricane Idalia in a Wednesday afternoon post, he had already posted more than 140 times on Truth Social since Monday on a multitude of subjects, even dredging up an old letter the late actor Kirk Douglas sent him in 1998. (The count of Trump’s posts includes times in which he reposted messages from other accounts.)

“Kirk was a real Movie ‘Star,’” Trump wrote Wednesday, before mentioning the hurricane. “Not many left today. They are mostly woke and weak!”

When asked about Trump’s hurricane-related silence at one of his press conferences, DeSantis shrugged it off. “Not my concern. My concern is protecting the people of Florida, being ready to go,” he said.

Analysis: Winners and losers

Of the three politicians, DeSantis faced the most difficult choices: one was to decide whether to suspend his campaign and return to Florida and the other was whether to meet Biden when he visited.

The decision to return to Florida was relatively easy: First, he belonged in Florida at that moment. Secondly, if he had not returned, he would have faced blistering criticism from all quarters and been hammered for not being presidential. It would have also damaged the state and its people. While the lieutenant governor could have handled the crisis, an absent governor would have seemed cowardly and hurt the response. His already declining poll numbers would have plummeted. It might have meant the end of his candidacy. Returning was the obvious and proper thing to do.

The Biden visit presented a very different challenge. With the storm passed, political considerations were paramount. DeSantis and his people had to worry that perhaps the governor’s relationship with the President had become too close and might alienate Republican primary voters. After all, they had the example of Christie’s 2012 embrace of Obama as an example of extreme Republican voter retaliation for a momentary human act of bipartisan cooperation (as well as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s 2014 Obama embrace).

Also, greeting the president might have made the defiant, anti-Biden DeSantis seem too subservient to a president he had repeatedly insulted and denigrated and might be running against. And Biden would have completely eclipsed the governor, who would have had to respectfully and silently stand behind him as he spoke.

So the choice was: greet the president for the sake of Florida and face Republican primary voter retaliation, or avoid the president and face media and opposition criticism.

Whatever the exact calculation, DeSantis chose to snub Biden—and snub it was, the DeSantis camp’s lame excuses notwithstanding. It made DeSantis seem petty, overly political and irresponsible, as Christie pointed out. It added to his image of meanness and arrogance.

The snub has already overshadowed an otherwise capable performance as governor in a crisis. People expect calm, command, and competence from their leaders during events like hurricanes and in this DeSantis delivered. His job was to make the emergency declarations, authorize the proper state agencies to take action and facilitate the response. From all evidence, he did this.

The question for DeSantis is not whether this will find favor with Floridians since they’ve already voted and he won’t be running again for governor. The real question is whether an effective performance as governor in Florida will have any resonance at all with Republican primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. South Carolinians know from hurricanes; Iowans and New Hampshirites, not so much. They’re more likely to remember a presidential hug than a hurricane response, so snubbing Biden came at less cost to DeSantis than the value of a meeting for the state of Florida.

Whether Idalia made DeSantis a winner or loser will be told in polls in the days to come and especially in the primaries and caucuses next year, which will determine his presidential fate.

For Biden, Idalia completely confirmed the truth that disasters, if competently handled, favor incumbents

From the outset, Idalia posed no political threat to Biden unless he utterly flubbed the response—which he certainly did not.

In natural disasters, presidents are expected to offer and authorize support for affected areas, coordinate among states and governors, ensure as smooth a federal response as possible and provide comfort and encouragement to victims. Biden did all these things.

While Biden is being criticized for his age, his long governmental experience, political savvy and past disaster management showed in his competence and responsiveness to the Idalia challenge. He knew to stay out of the way of the operators in FEMA and on the ground. He offered a non-partisan hand of cooperation to DeSantis despite the latter’s previous attacks on him. He was high-minded and gracious in the face of an obvious, though petty, snub. He showed care and concern for everyday Floridians hurt by the storm.

It’s not as though he couldn’t get his partisan digs in but they were subtle and dignified yet telling. For example, by making perfectly clear that his visit had been coordinated with DeSantis beforehand he reinforced the perception of DeSantis as petty and politically-obsessed. But Biden did it without anger or rancor.

Clearly, Biden emerged from the storm a winner.

As noted before, Donald Trump had no operational responsibilities or command authorities during the storm. Nonetheless, he is a presidential candidate, a public figure and a Floridian. Despite this, his response, as is so characteristic of him, was deranged, narcissistic and divorced from the reality of a crisis afflicting what is now his home state. Unless the storm had damaged Mar-a-Lago, it’s doubtful he would have noticed it at all.

What is more, at a time when all the other Republican candidates suspended their attacks on DeSantis while he faced the crisis, Trump barely skipped a beat. His attacks “underscore the degree to which Trump, in ways that often escape notice anymore, forgoes the traditional, sober-minded approach of nearly every other Republican and Democratic politician in times of crisis in favor of a style that keeps the focus on himself rather than imperiled communities,” Greenwood observed in the Tampa Bay Times.

“The former president overcame that unorthodox approach to win a presidential race in 2016. But it does still carry some political risk for the candidate, including from some conservatives who bristle at his decision to stay on the attack against DeSantis even amid Florida’s recovery efforts,” he wrote.

As though the indictments, impeachments, past incompetence and insults did not already make clear that Trump is unfit for any office, his response to Idalia should remove any doubts—if doubts anyone can still have.

This particularly applies to Floridians who should remember it when it comes to the presidential primary next March or if, as seems likely, Trump is the Republican nominee in the general election in November. Trump currently leads DeSantis in presidential polling in Florida. But when Florida specifically was threatened, Trump just did not care even though he lives on the same peninsula and shares its fate.

If Joe Biden had Floridians’ backs, Donald Trump turned his back on Floridians.

By any objective measure, Trump should be classified an Idalia loser—but there’s no telling if it will play out that way when the votes are counted in the early primary states and Florida.

Hurricane season is not over. Climate change is producing wild and unpredictable weather. There will be other storms, there will be wildfires, there will be roasting heat, there will be plagues.

Elected leaders will have to cope with all these challenges. A good leader in a crisis saves lives, manages well and provides comfort. The electorate should know what to look for in those who seek to lead them— and make their selections accordingly.

Hurricane Idalia as it approached Florida. (Photo: NOAA)

____________________________

Editor’s note: The author’s book, Masters of Disaster: The political and leadership lessons of America’s greatest disasters, is available on Amazon Kindle.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

The Donalds Dossier: Byron for Trump VP? And if so—why?

Byron Donalds and Donald Trump in a 2020 Donalds campaign video. (Image: Campaign)

June 27, 2023 by David Silverberg

For the past month at least, there have been rumors that Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) is seeking—or is being considered—as former President Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate.

Vice presidential speculation is always a feature of presidential campaigns. It’s fun. Anyone can participate. But it usually occurs much later in a campaign, mostly around the time of a party’s national convention.

But just as hurricanes and tornadoes are occurring out of their usual seasons, so the vice presidential agitation is starting earlier this year too.

Donalds’ possibility as a candidate was heightened, if not confirmed, by a fundraising appeal he sent out on Saturday, June 24.

It was headlined: “Who should be our nominee for Vice President?”

“Friend,” it began, as do all his appeals. “There’s been a lot of talk about who should be the Republican nominee for President.”

It then proclaimed in red colors: “I’ve made my opinion clear: Donald J. Trump is the ONLY candidate who can save our country, which is why I’ve endorsed him for President of the United States.”

It continued: “However, I haven’t heard nearly as much discussion about who the Republican nominee for Vice President should be. It’s critical that the nominee is another America First warrior who will stand up to the radical Left no matter what kind of witch hunts the radical Left and the Deep State throw at the ticket.”

Who might that be?

It then invited the reader to nominate a vice presidential candidate with a link to another page. On that page the reader can participate in a vice presidential poll and write in his or her nominee—and fill out a form with one’s name and e-mail address. The poll is conducted by WinRed, a professional Republican fundraising company based in Arlington, Va.

No doubt respondents will be constantly dunned for donations until they’re in their graves and possibly beyond.

While the poll may provide some kind of rough measure of popularity and may have gone out under the names of other Republican candidates, it was especially interesting coming from Donalds.

Might Southwest Florida’s own Donalds be actively auditioning for Trump’s vice president?

And, for God’s sake, why would anyone want that job?

The 12th Amendment complication

A Donalds vice presidential candidacy could be rendered moot at the outset. There is a widespread perception that the 12th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits the President and Vice President from being from the same state.

Adopted in 1804, the Amendment sets out the procedure for electing the President and Vice President.

The opening lines of the Amendment are: “The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves…”

This has generally been interpreted to mean that when Electors take the separate votes for President and Vice President, the elector should not be from the same state as both of the candidates.

Put another way, a Floridian Elector could not vote for both a President and Vice President from Florida.

However, the consensus of opinion is that the Amendment does not prohibit a President and Vice President from the same state.

“This is one of those rules that many people get wrong,” wrote Kevin Wagner a constitutional scholar, and political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, in the Palm Beach Post in 2021. “There actually is nothing in the US Constitution that prevents candidates for President and Vice President who live in the same state from running together. As a practical matter, it might be a bad idea, since presidential tickets are often put together to create geographic diversity. But, having two from the same state is permissible.”

The 12th Amendment question has come up before. In 2000, both George W. Bush and his preferred vice presidential candidate, Dick Cheney, were residents of Texas. The constitutional problem was skirted when Cheney took out a Wyoming driver’s license and changed his residency to that state, which he had represented in Congress, four days before Bush named him.

In 2020 there was speculation that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg might pick former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. However, this never materialized.

Most relevant to Florida was a 2015 fact-check of MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell by Snopes writer Jon Greenberg. At the time, there was speculation that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush might select Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate. O’Donnell flatly stated that they could not be from the same state.

Greenberg delved into the question and rated the statement as false. But he raised other possibilities, including that state electors might cast one vote, just for the president or just for the vice president. That would make a difference only in an extremely tight race.

But then, John Harrison, a constitutional scholar at the University of Virginia School of Law, offered a hypothetical option directly relevant to Florida.

If both the Republican presidential and vice presidential candidates were from Florida, “‘The Florida Republican Party might seek an amendment to Florida law so that non-Floridians could serve as electors, and nominate a slate of, say, Georgians, who could come down for the day in December when the electors give their vote,’ Harrison suggested.

“Harrison added that the Constitution is silent about whether electors must come from the state that appoints them. Harrison acknowledges that this question could be argued (in court) either way.”

Given Florida lawmakers’ propensity for constitutional work-arounds, like legislating a loophole for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to run for president despite the state’s resign-to-run law, this is a highly plausible solution for a Trump-Donalds ticket.

What is certain is that having two candidates from the same state introduces a complicating factor that would dog a campaign and bring the legitimacy of any victory into question. One can only imagine the uproar if Trump won a second term with Donalds as his vice president.

But the 12th Amendment has another impact relevant to Trump and Donalds.

The Electors, it states, “shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;–the President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.”

It was this act, the opening, counting and certification of the electoral votes by the President of the Senate—i.e., the Vice President of the United States—before the assembled members of the Senate and the House of Representatives, that Donald Trump wanted Mike Pence to violate and which Pence resolutely refused to do on Jan. 6, 2021. When that didn’t work, Trump incited insurrectionary mob violence to disrupt and stop the certification. It was also this constitutional certification that Donalds attempted to stop by voting against it at the direction of Trump.

So if Donald Trump were elected President and Byron Donalds was Vice President, two men who tried to violate the Constitution and overthrow the 2020 election would be the nation’s two highest officials counting and certifying an electoral vote.

This raises another question based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment: “No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

There have already been arguments whether sitting members of Congress who supported the Jan. 6 insurrection or attempted to overthrow the 2020 election are eligible for office. The question is so troublesome it has been glossed over.

But a Trump-Donalds ticket would raise it anew and give it new prominence—and urgency.

Idol and idolator

Donalds has been a Trumper since 2015. When he addressed a crowd at Trump rally at the Collier County Fairgrounds on Oct. 23, 2016, he said: “The time has come to get away from the same politicians with the same old promises and the same phrases and the same suits and the same cool hair. The time has come to make Donald Trump the next president of the United States!”

Since then he has remained consistent in his support, praise and adulation of Donald Trump, no matter what the circumstances, the issues, the scandals, the insurrection, the indictments or the arraignment.

Indeed, following his unsuccessful bids for Republican House Conference chair and Speaker of the House, Donalds has become more active and insistent on Twitter and in media of all sorts. He has spewed forth a gusher of Trumpist propaganda and talking points so rabid that they practically foam off the page. He was the first local politician to endorse Trump over DeSantis before the latter officially declared his candidacy.

In addition to fundraising and currying support with the MAGA base in his district, Donalds’ loud protestations of Trumpist loyalty seem intended to cement his relationship with Trump and deflect any charges of RINOism (Republican in Name Only), which were swirling about him in some Republican circles.

For all this, Trump has never seemed to particularly acknowledge Donalds or make him a priority. He didn’t endorse Donalds when he really needed it in his 2020 primary run; despite a general endorsement after the primary, he didn’t mention Donalds at all when he campaigned in Fort Myers during the general election campaign in October 2020, when Donalds was diagnosed with COVID and couldn’t be on stage. In December 2021 he did endorse Donalds for re-election but he didn’t endorse Donalds during his conference leadership run or his speakership bid. Often it seems that Trump looks through Donalds rather than at him.

Given the cascade of indictments, lawsuits and accusations against Trump, at the moment there is not exactly a stampede of people seeking to be his vice presidential nominee, which makes Donalds’ focus on the position even more interesting.

Another factor probably dampening enthusiasm for the Trump vice presidential slot may simply be Trump’s proven practice of turning on everyone around him. First and foremost is his turning on DeSantis, who went from “a brilliant young leader” to “Ron DeSanctimonious” and “Meatball Ron.” He lambasted his former attorney general, Jeff Sessions, as “mentally retarded,” Bill Barr became a “gutless pig,” his chief of staff, John Kelly had “a VERY small ‘brain,’” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis was “overrated”—and so on and so on.

Most of all, there’s the example of Trump’s treatment of Vice President Mike Pence. After four years of faithful, loyal, totally subservient, self-effacing service, Trump turned on him when Pence refused Trump’s command to violate his oath and the Constitution. In an otherwise humiliating and degrading tenure, it was Pence’s only show of resolve and independence. His reward was to have his boss incite a howling mob to try to hang him.

Trump hasn’t changed. Indeed, if anything he’s gotten worse, as witness his ire on May 30 at Kayleigh McEnany, who went from his faithful mouthpiece to “Milktoast” [sic] and RINO.

So Donald Trump’s new vice presidential pick, whoever he or she may be, can only expect public abuse, insult and humiliation in exchange for his or her expected role of total abasement and unreflecting defense of all of Trump’s lies, delusions and insanities.

What is more, after his experience with Pence, when he selects his running mate, Trump will likely not just be looking for a political loyalist or someone from another geographic area to balance the ticket. He’ll be looking for a slave—and “slave” is the right word for it—someone unthinkingly obedient and utterly without independent will.

In Trump’s likely calculation, the major thing Donalds would bring to the ticket in addition to slavish loyalty would be his race. Because he is African American, Donalds would help deflect charges of racism, a role he has consciously been playing on behalf of Trump and the MAGA movement since 2015.

If Donalds is regarded by the world as a “prop” for the MAGA movement now, it is nothing compared to the tsunami of disgust and denunciation he would face as Trump’s running mate. It would also be supremely ironic in light of all Donalds’ efforts to date to get people to look past his race and focus on his policies and prescriptions.

This scrutiny would be especially acute in light of the fact that as Trump’s vice president Donalds would be a heartbeat away from an obese president who would be 78 years (and 7 months and 6 days) old on the day he takes the oath of office in January 2025. Nothing focuses global attention on every pore of an individual like the possibility of succeeding to the US presidency and commanding the nation’s nukes.

The prospect of Trump standing again on the inaugural stage and taking the oath should prompt every American to contemplate what a second Trump presidency would mean—as well as the vice president’s role in it.

Contemplating catastrophe

Right now, with his multiple criminal indictments, many more in the offing, and his sea of troubles of all sorts, Trump winning the presidency seems distant and unlikely. However, he’s leading in the Republican primary polls, he has an iron grip on the Party and he is likely to be the Republican nominee in 2024. Further, as commentators are pointing out, even if he’s convicted and in jail, he can still run for President.

So a second Trump presidency, if unlikely, is still a possibility.

Even in the calmest, most rational, most objective light, a second Trump presidency would be a catastrophe that the United States might not survive.

A second Trump presidency would represent the triumph of evil. It would mean the imposition of a Trump tyranny. It would undoubtedly be the end of American democracy. It would elevate the absolutely worst people to positions of power in feudalisic service to their overlord. It would likely lead to the abrogation and elimination of the Constitution. It would be the end of the United States as a leading power in the world. It would mean the end of personal freedom of thought, action and speech. It would inaugurate a lawless, amoral regime of vengeance and viciousness.

Listing the implications and consequences could go on and on.

And Trump’s second in command would be party to it all. The position of Vice President might best be renamed First Accomplice. The First Accomplice will share all the guilt, all the blame and all the criminality that Trump unleashes.

If indeed Donalds wants the dubious distinction of joining Trump on the presidential ticket, this is what he would be signing up for. He would get the position and prominence he craves—and right between the eyes. He already endorses Trump’s criminality, now he would embrace and become one with it. African American politicians and journalists already scorn him; as a vice presidential candidate he would earn their vituperative hatred. If he had any illusions that he could moderate or mitigate the worst of Trump and Trumpism he would join all the other would-be saviors who have been demoted, disgraced and discarded.

And if, somewhere, somehow, he summoned the moral strength to oppose a Trump outrage he could face the same kind of mob Mike Pence faced—a lynch mob.

Even without the vice presidency, Donalds has endorsed the full Trumpist MAGA program. He has embraced it, he is actively promoting it and he is attempting to implement it in Congress with all its implications and consequences.

Byron Donalds wants to rise. It is conceivable that Trump will tap him as vice president.

Vice President John Nance Garner, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s vice president, once famously said that the vice presidency is “not worth a warm bucket of spit” (or a word to that effect).

That would go double under Donald Trump. But if that’s the bucket Donalds wants to dive into, that’s certainly his prerogative as an adult.

He just shouldn’t expect anyone to try to pull him out when he starts to drown.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Don or Ron? It’s time for SWFL politicians to choose sides

Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis in happier times. (AP/Brynn Anderson)

May 22, 2023 by David Silverberg

It can’t be put off any longer: Florida’s Republican politicians will have to choose between former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to be the next Republican presidential nominee.

That choice will represent the biggest issue facing the Florida Republican Party between now and the primary. Voters won’t have to make their decisions until the Republican Florida presidential preference primary on March 19, 2024. But state Republican politicians have to make their choice now, as DeSantis’ formal declaration draws near and both sides demand oaths of fealty. By and large they have already done so.

In Southwest Florida (SWFL), declarations of loyalty came early and initially favored Trump, who declared his candidacy last November. However, at the state level the endorsements favored DeSantis.

Team Don

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.) was the first SWFL politician to endorse Trump, doing so on April 6. In a lengthy statement he said that Trump would get the country “back on track, provide strength and resolve and make America great again.” He has been actively campaigning for Trump ever since. Rumors are swirling that he is considering a gubernatorial bid in 2026.

Donalds was followed by Rep. Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) who endorsed Trump during an appearance on Newsmax on April 17, saying “he’s the only person who can reverse on day one all these disastrous policies of the Biden administration.”

Also in the Trumpist column is Collier County Republican Committeeman Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the grocer and long-time Make America Great Again (MAGA) activist. Oakes was present at Trump’s campaign announcement on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago.

Team Ron

DeSantis has lagged behind on endorsements largely because he hasn’t been a declared candidate.

Nonetheless, state Senate President Sen. Kathleen Passidomo (R-28-Naples) endorsed DeSantis on May 16, in a statement calling him, “exactly the kind of leader we need for our country, and I look forward to supporting him for President.”

In the state House of Representatives SWFL Reps. Spencer Roach (R-76-DeSoto and Charlotte counties), Tiffany Esposito (R-77-Lehigh Acres), Jenna Persons-Mulicka (R-78-Fort Myers), Mike Giallombardo (R-79-Cape Coral), Adam Botana (R-80-coastal Lee County), Bob Rommel (R-81-Naples) and Lauren Melo (R-82-Hendry and Collier counties) have all endorsed DeSantis.

DeSantis was also endorsed by Florida House Speaker Rep. Paul Renner (R-19-Flagler and St. Johns counties).

What to watch

SWFL politicians to watch in the days ahead include Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-26-Fla.), who has not yet declared.

Neither of Florida’s senators, Republicans Marco Rubio or Rick Scott, have endorsed either candidate. Scott has stated that he is remaining neutral in the contest.

As of this writing, 13 Florida legislators had not made their commitments known.

Also unclear at this point are endorsements at the county and city level.

Endorsements are important indicators of Party support for candidates. The website FiveThirtyEight.com has an excellent, constantly updated interactive page on endorsements: “Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?” It assigns different point values to endorsements based on the prominence and position of the endorsers. It currently shows Trump far ahead overall.

Clearly, Trump’s lead will change after DeSantis makes his announcement.

Below is the full list of state officeholders (arranged alphabetically by last name) who endorsed DeSantis as of May 17, courtesy of NewsChannel 8, Tampa.

Florida Senate

  • Senate President Kathleen Passidomo
  • Sen. Ben Albritton (Senate District (SD)-27))
  • Sen. Bryan Avila (SD- 39) 
  • Sen. Dennis Baxley (SD-13)
  • Sen. Jim Boyd (SD-20)
  • Sen. Jennifer Bradley (SD-6)
  • Sen. Jason Brodeur (SD-100)
  • Sen. Douglas Broxson (SD-1)
  • Sen. Danny Burgess (SD-23)
  • Sen. Colleen Burton (SD-12)
  • Sen. Alexis Calatayud (SD-38)
  • Sen. Jay Collins (SD-13)
  • Sen. Nick DiCeglie (SD-18)
  • Sen. Gayle Harrell (SD-31)
  • Sen. Travis Hutson (SD-7)
  • Sen. Blaise Ingoglia (SD-11)
  • Sen. Jonathan Martin (SD-33)
  • Sen. Debbie Mayfield (SD-19)
  • Sen. Keith Perry (SD-9)
  • Sen. Corey Simon (SD-3)
  • Sen. Jay Trumbull (SD-2)
  • Sen. Clay Yarborough (SD-4)

Florida House

  • Speaker of the House Paul Renner
  • Rep. Shane Abbott (House District (HD)-5)
  • Rep. Thad Altman (HD-32)
  • Rep. Danny Alvarez (HD-69)
  • Rep. Adam Anderson (HD-57)
  • Rep. Alex Andrade (HD-2)
  • Rep. Jessica Baker (HD-17)
  • Rep. Douglas Bankson (HD-39)
  • Rep. Webster Barnaby (HD-29)
  • Rep. FabiánBasabe (HD-106)
  • Rep. Melony Bell (HD-49)
  • Rep. Kimberly Berfield (HD-58)
  • Rep. Adam Botana (HD-80)
  • Rep. Robert Brackett (HD-34)
  • Rep. Chuck Brannan (HD-10)
  • Rep. James Buchanan (HD-74)
  • Rep. Jennifer Canady (HD-50)
  • Rep. Mike Caruso (HD-87)
  • Rep. Ryan Chamberlin (HD-24)
  • Rep. Linda Chaney (HD-61)
  • Rep. Chuck Clemons (HD-22)
  • Rep. Wyman Duggan (HD-12)
  • Rep. Tiffany Esposito (HD-77)
  • Rep. Tom Fabricio (HD-110)
  • Rep. Juan Fernandez-Barquin (HD-118)
  • Rep. Randy Fine (HD-33)
  • Rep. Alina Garcia (HD-115)
  • Rep. Sam Garrison (HD-11)
  • Rep. Mike Giallombardo (HD-79)
  • Rep. Karen Gonzalez Pittman (HD-65)
  • Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman (HD-91)
  • Rep. Michael Grant (HD-75)
  • Rep. Tommy Gregory (HD-72)
  • Rep. Griff Griffitts (HD-6)
  • Rep. Fred Hawkins (HD-35)
  • Rep. Jeff Holcomb (HD-53)
  • Rep. Berny Jacques (HD-59)
  • Rep. Sam Killebrew (HD-48)
  • Rep. Traci Koster (HD-66)
  • Rep. Chip LaMarca (HD-100)
  • Rep. Tom Leek (HD-28)
  • Rep. Vicki Lopez (HD-113)
  • Rep. Randy Maggard (HD-54)
  • Rep. Patt Maney (HD-4)
  • Rep. Ralph Massullo (HD-23)
  • Rep. Stan McClain (HD-27)
  • Rep. Lawrence McClure (HD-68)
  • Rep. Fiona McFarland (HD-73)
  • Rep. Lauren Melo (HD-82)
  • Rep. Kiyan Michael (HD-16)
  • Rep. Jim Mooney (HD-120)
  • Rep. Toby Overdorf (HD-85)
  • Rep. Bobby Payne (HD-20)
  • Rep. Daniel Perez (HD-116)
  • Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka (HD-78)
  • Rep. Rachel Plakon (HD-36)
  • Rep. Alex Rizo (HD-112)
  • Rep. Spencer Roach (HD-76)
  • Rep. Will Robinson (HD-71)
  • Rep. Bob Rommel (HD-81)
  • Rep. Joel Rudman (HD-3)
  • Rep. Michelle Salzman (HD-1)
  • Rep. Jason Shoaf (HD-7)
  • Rep. Tyler Sirois (HD-31)
  • Rep. David Smith (HD-38)
  • Rep. John Snyder (HD-86)
  • Rep. Paula Stark (HD-47)
  • Rep. Kevin Steele (HD-55)
  • Rep. Cyndi Stevenson (HD-18)
  • Rep. John Temple (HD-52)
  • Rep. Josie Tomkow (HD-51)
  • Rep. Dana Trabulsy (HD-84)
  • Rep. Chase Tramont (HD-30)
  • Rep. Keith Truenow (HD-26)
  • Rep. Kaylee Tuck (HD-83)
  • Rep. Taylor Yarkosky (HD-25)
  • Rep. Brad Yeager (HD-56)

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

DeSantis’ book warns of danger to America—from him

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis promotes his book in Davenport, Iowa on March 10 of this year. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

May 9, 2023 by David Silverberg

Any day now, Florida Gov. Ronald DeSantis (R) is going to declare his candidacy for President of the United States.

The legislative session is over. An exception has been made to the state’s resign-to-run law enabling him to run. Trips to key primary states have been made and an international tour has attempted to establish his international credentials (with very mixed success). Consultants have been hired, funds raised and an organization built. All the gears are grinding toward a presidential campaign.

Among his many preparations, a book has been published under DeSantis’ name called The Courage to Be Free: Florida’s Blueprint for America’s Revival.

It’s easy to dismiss candidate campaign books and political autobiographies. They’re written and published with clear ends in mind: to prepare the way for future runs and/or to justify past actions. An effective campaign book does both.

Yet for all their self-serving ends, all the staff-written ghost writing, all the vetting and editing and weighing of words, often by committees, they can still be revealing. They’re especially valuable for explaining political goals and ends. No matter how little the actual author did the writing, they still unveil a personality and an individual’s thinking.  

One of history’s most complete and revealing campaign books was Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf. Perhaps if more people had actually read it and realized what he was saying when it was first published he would have been stopped and there wouldn’t have been a Second World War.

The Courage to Be Free is not Mein Kampf. But it is a DeSantis manifesto and worth careful reading, review and analysis.

A simple style for simple readers

Stylistically, this is a very plain and easily read book. It’s very straightforward and accessible in its narrative.

DeSantis has a distinctive “voice” but it’s not present throughout the book. His introduction, “A Florida Blueprint” lays out his ideology and doctrinal principles. This is the one chapter that doesn’t “sound” like him. It’s stilted, almost as though copied verbatim from some conservative political cribsheet, or perhaps it represented his first writing effort, or his final summary. Whatever the reason, if there’s any chapter that reads as though it were written by a different author, this is it.

It also appears that DeSantis and any co-author or editors decided that this was the chapter most likely to be hastily skimmed by casual readers, voters or journalists and they wanted to get their doctrinal material up front.

It is in this introduction that DeSantis lays out his main themes: that the United States is run by illegitimate “elites,” that he is a bold and brave governor, that his governorship led to freedom and success and that Florida under his administration represents the future.

“Florida has consistently defended its people against large institutions looking to cause them harm—from public health bureaucrats looking to keep kids out of school to large corporations trying to undermine the rights of parents and to federal agencies trying to push people out of work due to COVID shots,” he writes.

Much of the rest of the book is more personal. It’s a memoir of his upbringing, life in politics and rise through the ranks. It recounts his time as a representative in Congress and his run for governor. It then goes over the issues he tackled in office and why he tackled them the way he did.

Like his prose, the person that emerges from this book is relatively straightforward and simple. DeSantis is not a deep thinker, although he’s careful to cite credible sources, especially the Federalist Papers, for his arguments. However, there isn’t any introspection, or contemplation or even nuanced consideration of larger issues. While there’s some acknowledgement of wider causes and effects, there’s little attempt to derive insight from them. Unlike, for example, a Henry Kissinger memoir, there’s no effort to peer deeply into a topic and reflect on the history behind it or draw lessons from it. Once DeSantis has made his assumptions and has his set conceptions the rest follows, largely without reflection.

DeSantis was a baseball athlete in school and one cannot help but consider that this is the kind of account that any jock might produce for a sports memoir.

Trump vs. Trump-lite

Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign book.

DeSantis’ main political rival at this point in time is former president, former mentor and fellow Floridian, Donald J. Trump. Trump is certainly a topic in DeSantis’ book but a gingerly treated one.

It’s interesting to contrast DeSantis’ memoir with Trump’s own 2016 campaign book, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again.

Reading Crippled America was a fascinating, if exhausting, experience. No matter what the topic being addressed at the top of any page, by the bottom of the page the prose had turned to an extravagant, adulatory paean to Donald Trump. Every. Single. Page.

As the world discovered during his presidency and afterwards, Donald Trump loves Donald Trump. But not just “loves.” The English language does not quite have the words that fully convey his self-regard. “Selfish,” “egomaniacal,” “narcissistic” all apply but not at the cosmic depth and intensity that burned from the pages of Crippled America. In this book Trump was revealed as a universe unto himself, a universe with a single inhabitant at whose core was not a soul but a throbbing black hole of me-ness that sucked in all energy, light and life.

Mercifully, even if the DeSantis personality that emerges from Courage is simple and often simplistic, at least it has some grip on reality.

It’s very interesting to contrast the DeSantis and Trump accounts of Trump’s endorsement of DeSantis for governor when he first ran. Then, DeSantis was an obscure congressman running against Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam, an overwhelmingly favored rival for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

As DeSantis tells it: “In late 2017, I asked the president if he would be willing to send out a tweet touting me as a good candidate for Florida governor. He seemed amenable, but at the same time, I was not holding my breath; the president has a lot on his plate, and this was not likely to rank on his list of things to do. About a week later, a Trump tweet appeared:

“Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!”

That’s it. He then goes on to recount the campaign and how he won.

As Trump told the story in a lengthy, rambling, digressive interview with Sean Hannity, DeSantis requested a meeting with him and, “with tears in his eyes” begged for an endorsement. Although Trump thought DeSantis had little chance, saying: “Ron, you’re so far behind I can’t imagine that if you got George Washington’s endorsement, combined with the late, great Abraham Lincoln, if you had their endorsements, that you would win,” Trump decided to take a chance because, unlike Putnam, DeSantis had defended Trump against impeachment charges. Trump describes the endorsement as variously having the impact of a nuclear bomb or a rocket launch.

That the endorsement made the difference in the race is undeniable, although Trump gets next to no credit in DeSantis’ book.

Despite the bad blood that has bubbled between the two men, DeSantis continues to defend Trump against charges of Russian collusion. He does this, however, in the context of attacking what he always calls the “legacy media.”

 “The Mount Everest of anonymous source-fueled political narratives was the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy theory, which was a media-driven hoax designed to cast doubt on the results of the 2016 presidential election and strangle the Trump presidency in the crib,” he writes. “The theory—that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to steal the 2016 presidential election—represented perhaps the most serious charge ever leveled against an American president.”

(Russia’s involvement in the 2016 presidential campaign was extensively documented in the Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election by Robert Mueller. The role that Florida played is covered in the 2019 article, “Trump, Florida, Russia: Tracking the Sunshine State in the Mueller Report.”)

It is noteworthy that nowhere in the book does DeSantis mention Trump’s incitement of the January 6th insurrection and its mob violence, even as he condemns disorder. “Since mob violence constitutes a mortal threat to social order, swift and strong accountability is the only logical response,” he writes, touting his own anti-protest legislation. He condemns rioters in Portland, Oregon in the wake of George Floyd’s death but not those who attacked the United States Capitol, tried to destroy Congress and overturn the election.

Of course, in the Trump universe DeSantis has gone from “a brilliant young leader” to “Ron Desanctimonious” and “Meatball Ron.” However, if there’s any resentment on DeSantis’ part, it never made it into the book.

Instead, DeSantis’ resentment is reserved for other targets, those that will resonate with Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base and presumably win DeSantis the nomination.

The targets

Chief among DeSantis’ targets are “elites.”

“Whom, exactly, are these elites?” DeSantis asks in his introduction. He relies on a definition provided by author and academic Angelo Codevilla, defining them as an “ideological, incompetent, and self-interested ‘ruling class’ that has consolidated power over American society in the past fifty years.”

He continues: “These elites are ‘progressives’ who believe our country should be managed by an exclusive cadre of ‘experts’ who wield authority though an unaccountable and massive administrative state. They tend to view average Americans with contempt, believe in the need for wholesale social engineering of American society, and consider themselves entitled to wield power over others.”

Of course, unmentioned is the fact that these “elites,” ever more open to talent, intelligence and education rather than heredity or class or race, led the United States through a Great Depression, a world war, a Cold War, a terrorist war, and made the country the richest and mightiest in history with the widest distribution of prosperity. They shaped the world according to rational rules that spread democracy and secured a rough peace for nearly a century.

But no matter, throughout the rest of the book, DeSantis wages rhetorical war on these elites and experts whenever possible.

He does not overlook his own elite Ivy League education at Yale University, where he graduated magna cum laude, and Harvard Law. But DeSantis maintains that he was untainted by elitism.

“Experiencing unbridled leftism on campus pushed me to the right,” he writes. “I had no use for those who denigrated our country or mocked people of faith.” Although he thought that the leftist ideas he found on campus would whither in the light of reality, he writes that he was mistaken. On the contrary, “the ideology that dominates so many major institutions in American life, including our largest corporations, is a clear reflection of the campus dogma that has infected a generation of students at elite American universities.”

It is when it comes to this ideological combat that DeSantis’s book proves most valuable because it puts his actions as governor into an overall context. Like many other conservatives, DeSantis sees all of American society dominated by an elite-guided “woke” ideology. “These elites control the federal bureaucracy, lobby shops on K Street, big business, corporate media, Big Tech companies, and universities,” he writes.

DeSantis is at war with all these institutions and the book documents his battles. His attacks on the Florida university system and its professors are just one part of his ideological crusade. His war with the Disney Company is a front in his struggle against a “woke” corporate culture. His attacks on “Big Tech” are an essential element of his battle with elites.

DeSantis devotes an entire chapter to the COVID-19 pandemic and his response to it.

“Florida bucked the ‘experts’ and charted a course that sought to maintain the functioning of society and the overall health of its citizenry,” he writes of the pandemic. “Power-hungry elites tried to use the coronavirus to impose an oppressive biomedical security state on America but Florida stood as an impenetrable roadblock to such designs.

“We also recognized the intellectual bankruptcy and brazen partisanship of the public health elites, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci. The performance of these so-called experts—they were wrong on the need for lockdowns, the efficacy of cloth masks, school closures, the existence of natural immunity and the accuracy of epidemiological ‘models’—was so dreadful that no sane person should ever ‘trust the experts’ ever again.”

DeSantis goes into great detail describing how he and his surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, disproved the data coming out of Washington and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and reached their own conclusions about defying the guidance and administering vaccines—or not.

“I was not going to allow our state to descend into a Faucian dystopia in which people’s freedoms were curtailed and their livelihoods destroyed,” DeSantis writes. “Florida protected individual freedom, economic opportunity and access to education—and our state is much better for it.”

While DeSantis acknowledges that there was some “mortality” in Florida from COVID, the 86,850 Floridians who died from COVID or the 7.5 million who were stricken get short shrift. Nor does he have a word of praise or appreciation for the healthcare workers who struggled to care for and cure them. These people, living and dead, apparently did not merit mention.

He also doesn’t address a two-week period in December 2021 when he disappeared from public view and rumors swirled that he had a bout of COVID. (In an almost-covert act, DeSantis received a vaccination in April 2021.)

In addition to the “biomedical security state,” throughout the book DeSantis constantly attacks what he variously calls the “legacy media,” or “corporate media,” and, of course, what Trump characterized as the “fake news.”

On this issue, DeSantis does have a solid example of shoddy reporting to bolster his claims: the 2021 report by the television show “60 Minutes.” That broadcast, “A Fair Shot,” irresponsibly and inaccurately drew a connection between DeSantis and the award of a contract to provide COVID vaccines through the Publix supermarket chain. (To read in-depth coverage of the incident and Publix politics, see “Publix: Where politics bring no pleasure.”) “60 Minutes” was condemned by just about all parties for implying wrongdoing where none was proven and using smear tactics to further its preferred story.

However, despite this legitimate complaint about this particular report, DeSantis’ hatred of the media is painted with a far broader brush. He agrees with Trump’s infamous tweet that the media “is the enemy of the American people.” (This came one month into Trump’s presidency when the world refused to buy his obviously false insistence that he’d had the largest inaugural crowd in history).

For DeSantis, “The national legacy press is the praetorian guard of the nation’s failed ruling class, running interference for elites who share their vision and smearing those who dare to oppose it. All too often, the legacy press operates in bad faith, elevates their preferred narratives over facts, and indulges in knee-jerk partisanship.”

He writes: “Legacy media outlets have evolved into something akin to state-run media. They do not seek to hold the powerful accountable. Instead, they protect the nation’s left-leaning ruling class, including the permanent bureaucracy in Washington and Democratic elected officials.”

DeSantis also fully explains his feud with the Disney Corporation in a chapter titled “The magic kingdom of woke corporatism.”

DeSantis sees private companies as purely political entities, writing, “corporate America has become a major protagonist in battles over American politics and culture. The battle lines almost invariably find large, publicly-traded corporations lining up behind leftist causes. It is unthinkable that these large companies would side with conservative Americans on issues such as the Second Amendment, the right to life, election integrity and religious liberty.”

Guns and mass shootings get only passing mention, as in DeSantis’ Second Amendment reference above. The 2018 Parkland shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School resulted in new gun reforms in Florida, which DeSantis stated he would have vetoed had he been governor at the time. Otherwise, he writes, “Rather than a firearms issue, I viewed the Parkland massacre as a catastrophic failure of leadership that cried out for accountability.” He blames the Broward County sheriff for the shooting and points to spending $750 million on school safety measures during his tenure.

This is particularly interesting because on June 14, 2017, after a baseball practice, DeSantis and another congressman were approached by a man who asked if baseball players on a playing field in Alexandria, Va., were Republicans or Democrats. DeSantis’ companion said they were Republicans and then the two went to a car and left. It was only later in the morning when he was in the congressional gym that he learned the man had shot at the players, wounding Rep. Steven Scalise (R-1-La.) before being killed himself.

In other hands, this incident would be an excellent opportunity to reflect on the problem of gun violence in America, or the need for more widespread mental health care, or even the fragility of life. DeSantis only relates that he was relieved he left practice early.

Other than a similarly passing reference to “the right to life,” DeSantis doesn’t examine the abortion issue in Florida in the book. As governor he signed into law a ban on abortions after six weeks, although he didn’t address—or discourage—calls to ban abortions completely.

Another subject that gets short shrift is foreign policy. As a congressman, DeSantis supported moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. He also opposes Chinese Communist Party activities in the United States. Other than that, the world outside Florida doesn’t interest him much, at least as far as his book is concerned.

Analysis: Florida and the future

Political autobiographies usually set out to do two things: get the author elected and provide a blueprint for what he or she would do if elected.

In terms of getting DeSantis elected, the book certainly spells out what he believes and how he perceives the world. Theoretically, it should confirm the biases and orientations of the Trumpist, MAGA base, whose votes DeSantis is seeking.

However, whatever his thoughts and feelings, as long as Trump is in the race DeSantis can only run as “Trump-lite” and the master himself will provide the pure, unadulterated hatred, prejudice and rage that MAGA addicts crave.

This brings up another factor evident in the book—and one that is actually commendable.

Nowhere in the book does DeSantis advocate violence or extralegal measures. Trump, by contrast, encouraged violence among his followers and even took physically violent action himself. On Jan. 6, thwarted by his electoral failure, he incited a full-scale riot and insurrection, encouraged the attempted lynching of his vice president and grabbed the throat of a Secret Service agent who wouldn’t drive him to the Capitol. He has never apologized or expressed regret or remorse (or been held to account) for any of this and he’s touted incarcerated rioters as political prisoners. He’s never condemned violence in principle.

DeSantis presents himself as a law and order governor and so there are no insinuations or incitements to political violence in his book (or during his appearances). This is not to be overlooked or minimized or, for that matter, taken for granted. Political violence is a hallmark of true fascism and Trump encouraged it as part of national political life.

However, it would be especially commendable if, as part of his condemnation of mob violence, DeSantis would also take a firm, principled stand condemning the insurrection of Jan. 6 and those who participated in it. In the absence of that, he does what he accuses the left of doing; applying the law and condemnation selectively, depending on the cause and the participants in the disorder.

That said, in its first goal of getting him the nomination, the DeSantis book might win over a few wavering Trumpers but it’s unlikely to convert anyone outside the MAGA orbit to DeSantism. Its narrative is not so compelling or its arguments so powerful that it will sweep voters into his corner.

Looking to its larger purpose of providing a blueprint for governing, the book will likely prove repugnant to thinking Americans who don’t want Trump or a Trump-like president.

The key reason for this is that for all their differences, Trump and DeSantis share a most important characteristic: both are absolutists.

Trump classifies people by their personal loyalty to him. For DeSantis, the dividing line is whether they agree with his agenda, the one spelled out in this book. Ultimately, though, both men want absolute obedience—and that is not the American way.

DeSantis’ demands are perhaps somewhat more complex and more subtly expressed than Trump’s but their intents are the same. DeSantis is at war with “woke” as he defines it and whether it’s individual citizens or schools or universities or businesses or corporations or scientists or public servants or the media, he doesn’t want them thinking the way he opposes. He doesn’t want to convince them to his thinking, he wants to crush their heresy through legislation, legal action or all the tools of the state.  

As Floridians are finding out, no one is safe from DeSantist demands, whether those demands are made by the governor himself or by a servile legislature competing to implement this absolutist agenda.

As so many would-be tyrants have proven through history, absolute agendas of this sort may be called “freedom” by their advocates but in practice they’re anything but free. DeSantis may claim that he’s showing courage by pursuing absolute power despite criticism and opposition. Maybe, though, his opponents and detractors see something different and more oppressive to which he himself is blind.

So in many ways, it’s a good thing that Ron DeSantis has laid out his blueprint for America’s “revival” in The Courage to Be Free. By reading it and being aware of his agenda, freedom-loving Americans will gain their own wisdom and have their own courage to ensure that America stays free from his absolutism—which threatens them so absolutely.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Resign-to-run or rewrite the rule? DeSantis, the legislature and the law

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (Illustration: Donkey Hotey)

Feb. 23, 2022 by David Silverberg

When the Florida state legislature convenes on March 7, it will have a busy two months.

Dominated by Republican supermajorities, the Florida House and Senate are likely to implement the agenda of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) to prepare the way for his now-obvious run for the presidency in 2024.

But no matter what the legislature’s other priorities—restricting abortion, encouraging gunplay, politicizing school boards, reducing local autonomy, narrowing academic freedom, restricting voting, bullying corporations, banning books, and waging war against a supposedly “woke” culture—there is one obstacle above all that may stand in the way of DeSantis’ presidential run.

Does Florida law allow DeSantis to actually formally declare himself a candidate and run while serving as governor or must he “resign-to-run?”

If the law does prohibit his run, will the legislature change the law to accommodate him?

Although there was considerable discussion of this in November following his strong re-election showing, the talk died down shortly thereafter.

Still, resign-to-run (which The Paradise Progressive will henceforth abbreviate as “R2R” for convenience’s sake—you read it here first) could be a big impediment.

The state of the law

Florida is one of four other states (Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii and Texas) that has an R2R law: an officeholder must resign his or her current office to seek another office.

Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 99.012 of the Florida Statutes states:

(2) No person may qualify as a candidate for more than one public office, whether federal, state, district, county, or municipal, if the terms or any part thereof run concurrently with each other.

(3)(a) No officer may qualify as a candidate for another state, district, county, or municipal public office if the terms or any part thereof run concurrently with each other without resigning from the office he or she presently holds.

(b) The resignation is irrevocable.

At first glance, this would seem to put a crimp in DeSantis’ plans; he wouldn’t be allowed to declare his presidential candidacy and mount a campaign without irrevocably resigning the office of governor.

However, as in all law, that’s open to interpretation.

One view: He doesn’t have to resign

Lilian Rodriguez-Baz, interviewed on the Wilkow! talk show. (Image: Wilkow!)

One view is that DeSantis doesn’t have to resign at all.

That was put forward by Lilian Rodríguez-Baz, a founder and legal counsel for Ready for Ron Political Action Committee (PAC).

“Armchair lawyers proven wrong again — DeSantis does not have to resign to run for POTUS,” was the headline of an article by her that appeared on Nov. 29 on the website Florida Politics (but which was subsequently removed).

While one cannot help but note that lawyers do almost all their work from armchairs, her argument deserves to be examined at length.

The notion that DeSantis would have to resign to run is an “idea as misleading as it is dangerous, and if left unchecked, it could cost Republicans the next election,” she wrote.

“As a lawyer, I look to the law, and on this point, the law is crystal-clear on its face: State officeholders do not need to quit their jobs in order to run for federal office — whether it’s the House, Senate, or presidency. Florida Statute Section 99.012, which governs this issue, has two relevant parts: Sub-sections (2) and (3). Those wrongly claiming DeSantis needs to resign are playing legal gymnastics by improperly conflating the two sub-sections.

“Sub-section (2) is straightforward. It provides, in plain English, that a person cannot qualify as a ‘candidate’ (e.g., be on the ballot) for two offices at the same time, including local, state, and federal offices.

“This is why Sen. Marco Rubio was unable to run for both President and U.S. Senate in 2016. Instead, he had to wait until the end of his presidential campaign to restart his Senate run. Unlike Rubio, however, this scenario is totally inapplicable to DeSantis given that he is the sitting Governor of Florida and would, therefore, not be a ‘candidate’ for two offices if he runs for President.

“Meanwhile, sub-section (3), which applies to DeSantis, makes it clear that an ‘officer’ (as defined by the Statute) cannot be the holder of a state-level or lower office while running for another state or lower position without resigning.

“However, the Florida Legislature specifically and intentionally removed the word ‘federal’ from the list of offices implicated in this section.

“In other words, there is no law that prevents DeSantis from holding the office of Governor of Florida while running for president at the same time.”

As an example of this, Rodriguez-Baz cites the instance of Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). In 2018 Scott, still serving as governor of Florida, did not have to resign to run for the US Senate.

“Anti-DeSantis partisans, with their short memories, are so desperate to undermine the man poised to win the White House in 2024 (see: every poll) that they will resort to shoddy lawyering,” complained Rodriguez-Baz. “Unsurprisingly, those accusing DeSantis of attempting to change the law in his favor, are the very ones re-writing clear legislative directives in order to mislead the public.”

The bottom line, according to Rodriguez-Baz: “…The reality is this: DeSantis can run in 2024 (without resigning),” and her organization was working to convince him to do so (as though he needed that push).

Arguments and precedents

Whether Rodriguez-Baz’s argument is correct is something that may be determined in court if DeSantis simply declares his candidacy while governor.

The law has been challenged before: in 1970 a US District Court in northern Florida ruled that it didn’t apply to candidates for the US Congress, since federal congressional qualifications are governed by the Constitution.

In the Florida legislature, the most prominent advocate for changing the law is State Senate President Sen. Kathleen Passidomo (R-28-Naples). “If an individual who is Florida governor is running for president, I think he should be allowed to do it,” she told reporters on Nov. 22, 2022 after the election. “I really do. That’s a big honor and a privilege, so it is a good idea.”

State Sen. Kathleen Passidomo says a law change is “a good idea.” (Image: The Florida Channel)

Unsurprisingly, at least one Democrat disagrees. In November, State Rep. Anna Eskamani (D-47-Orlando) argued that if the law is in effect, DeSantis must be held to it.

During a November 23 interview with Dave Elias, the NBC 2 News political reporter in Fort Myers, Eskamani called the notion of changing the law “another example of how Florida Republicans will bend over backwards to please Governor DeSantis.”

She continued: “If we’re going to hold ourselves to standards that we must resign in order to run, that standard must be held to Governor DeSantis as well.”

State Rep. Anna Eskamani is interviewed by Dave Elias. (Image: NBC2)

Someone who has a lot of experience with the resign-to-run law is Charlie Crist. While Republican governor in 2008, he was considered for then-Sen. John McCain’s running mate. The legislature changed the law to allow him to do that but then changed it back again in 2018.

The 2008 change included a “carve out” that allowed an official whose term of office was about to end to seek another position and that allowed then-Gov. Rick Scott to run for the US Senate. He was allowed to stay in the governor’s office until the day his successor, DeSantis, was inaugurated.

In 2022, though, Crist, then a Democrat, resigned from the US House of Representatives to run for governor. Also resigning was Democratic Agriculture Commissioner Nicole “Nikki” Fried who sought the gubernatorial nomination but lost to Crist in the primary.

Analysis: Hanging over his head

Florida’s R2R law, could prove a stumbling block if not addressed by DeSantis.

Even if, technically, DeSantis can ignore it, as Rodriguez-Baz argues, it will haunt him when he formally declares his candidacy. If not clarified, it will always hang over his head, threatening the legitimacy of his candidacy, even if it ultimately proves little more than a distraction.

If he were the sole candidate running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, that would not matter. But, of course, that’s not the case. Even if DeSantis isn’t yet formally running, other candidates are already in the race.

Chief among these is former President Donald Trump, whose anti-DeSantis campaign to date has mainly consisted of schoolyard insults: “Ron DeSanctimonious,” “GLOBALIST RINO” (capitalization, of course, his) and the not-yet formally unveiled “Meatball Ron.”

Trump was supposedly also considering “Shutdown Ron,” in reference to COVID. “No, you dummy!” protested comedian Stephen Colbert. “Quit while you’re ahead! You’re never going to do better than the crystallized genius that is Meatball Ron!”

Then, on Feb. 14, Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, declared her candidacy. She and Trump are likely only the first stones in what is sure to be an avalanche of Republican hopefuls and if DeSantis’ legal status isn’t clarified, all will be citing R2R to disqualify him.

There is always the possibility that DeSantis will suddenly be incapacitated or will choose not to run—but while nothing is totally impossible, those odds are extremely low given every move and decision he has made to date.

One way or another, DeSantis’ status as a governor-candidate will need to be determined finally and decisively. It can be done by a formal gubernatorial announcement, it can be done in court, or it can be done in the legislature. But even in Florida, where the concept of law itself is squishy, where constitutional amendments are routinely evaded and where even drivers ignore traffic rules, the law must ultimately be addressed.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

Politics in 2023: Looking ahead at Don vs. Ron, MAGA madness and the race to the right

Gazing at a crystal ball on the beach at sunset—a Florida way to discern the future.

Jan. 1, 2023 by David Silverberg

New Year’s parties are celebrations of hope that the year to come will be better than the year past; that problems will be solved, challenges met and new opportunities open.

But just what are the political challenges and events Southwest Florida, the Sunshine State and the nation are likely to face in 2023? As the immortal Yogi Berra once put it so well: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Tough as predicting is, existing trends provide some indication of where things are going and when it comes to politics, it’s wise to be ready for what’s ahead—or at least to brace for it.

Don vs. Ron vs. Joe

Are you already tired of hearing about the rivalry between former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ronald DeSantis (R)?

Well, too bad. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

This is the political story likely to dominate the year. It’s got everything: colorful characters, high stakes, nasty insults, personal rancor, fanatical partisans, absurdity galore, mentor vs. protégé, sorcerer vs. apprentice, and horse-race polling to generate headlines as each candidate pulls ahead or behind ever more exotic and narrow slices of the electorate.

What’s more, the rivalry will fill in the news gap between election years, when there’s usually little happening, so political reporters can always cover the contest when they’re on deadline and there’s nothing else to report.

As a result, every belch, snort and fart from these two will be analyzed and evaluated through a campaign lens.

At issue, of course, is the presidency and with it the future of the United States. That part is serious.

Integral to this story will be the indictment and prosecution of Trump for a long list of transgressions stretching back from before his presidency.

Not only has Trump now officially been accused of actual crimes: obstructing an official congressional proceeding; conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to make a false statement; and aiding an insurrection, but if tried and found guilty, he’s facing punishment. Whether this actually happens is already a major story and it won’t be resolved any time soon.

But beyond that question, the entire political establishment, both Democratic and Republican, the “deep state” and the mainstream media and a majority of voters don’t want him back and genuinely fear his possible return. They will do all they can to stop him. The fate of American democracy hangs in the balance.

Also, while it’s easy to forget the existence of Democrats in Florida, nationally they’re still a force to be reckoned with and the chief Democrat, President Joe Biden, has a big decision of his own to make: will he run again?

Expectations are that an announcement may come in February. If he announces another run, the media will focus on that. But if he chooses to retire there may be another Democratic stampede for the nomination as there was in 2020. If he decides to anoint a successor, the focus will be on the heir apparent, who, like DeSantis, will have to walk a narrow and difficult course for the next two years to preserve his or her viability. Or if he decides not to declare, the speculation will be prolonged for another year.

A more intense and exhausting drama than all this could not have been dreamed up by William Shakespeare. And all next year’s a stage.

Congress and revenge

Had the hoped-for Republican “red wave” materialized, Republican members of Congress would have taken revenge on Democrats in a thousand different ways. They would have pushed legislation to turn back the clock to implement the Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda. They very well might have impeached President Joe Biden for the high crime of being a Democrat. They would have tried to undo or cover up the felonies of the insurrection and would have done all they could to exonerate, excuse and elevate Trump.

Republicans are still likely to try those things. Expect a cascade of House investigations in an effort to weaken and undermine the administration and Biden’s re-election. It will be a replay of Benghazi and Hillary Clinton’s e-mails on steroids.

However, when it comes to substantive legislation, Democrats kept the Senate, meaning that no matter how extreme the proposals coming out of the House, none are likely to make it into law.

The United States has dealt with divided government before and some sessions were surprisingly productive. That doesn’t seem likely this time, though.

In the past, reasonable compromise was considered not just respectable but a strength of the American system. Trump, though, brought an absolutist, zero-sum, win-lose approach to government and politics. He infected his party and about half the population with that attitude. Until time passes and that fever burns off, much of the essential functioning of government could be stymied by political intransigence.

This could especially manifest itself in September when the new fiscal year appropriations must be approved. We could see a government shutdown—or shutdowns—at that time if House Republicans dig in.

The possibility of that happening means that measures to protect Southwest Florida need to be implemented before the showdown. In particular, Congress needs to pass the Harmful Algal Bloom Essential Forecasting Act, which would ensure that federal activities monitoring and responding to harmful algal blooms like red tide will continue despite any shutdowns.

This legislation needs to be passed early, with bipartisan support. The bill was originally the idea and a priority of former Rep. Francis Rooney, who was unable to advance it.

Unfortunately, the key congressman on this legislation, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.), who introduced the bill in the last Congress, has shown little to no interest in it. Nor has he shown any legislative ability, so it has few prospects in the 118th Congress.

Unless someone in the Florida delegation is willing to pick up this cause and champion this legislation, Southwest Florida will be at the mercy of a deadlocked, recalcitrant Congress, which in turn will leave the region, literally, at the mercy of the tides.

DeSantis and the race to the right

The most dangerous kind of politician is the kind who actually believes what he says. Ron DeSantis appears to believe a lot of the extremism he espouses.

He has clearly decided that when it comes to policy he cannot allow himself to be outflanked on the right, either at home or nationally. No matter how absurd or illogical the premise he seems convinced that he must be leading the ideological charge—even if it’s headed over a cliff.

This led him to wage cultural war on science, education, vaccines, immigrants, gays and public health during 2022. It won him a resounding re-election in Florida. There’s no reason to expect any change in the next year.

In fact, it’s likely to intensify given his presidential ambitions and the rise of his rivals. For example, in September DeSantis generated headlines by spending state money to fly Venezuelan asylum-seekers from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts without any prior notice or coordination. Potential presidential candidate Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) couldn’t let that go unanswered, so, in December he similarly bused Central and South American immigrants from Texas to Vice President Kamala Harris’ official residence in Washington, DC.

We’re likely to see a lot of such posturing in the year ahead, using people as pawns.

But it won’t just happen at the presidential level. In Florida, given the Republican supermajority in the legislature, the race to the right will be a dominant force there too. State legislators can be expected to prove their MAGA bona fides and curry favor with DeSantis and the far-right base by introducing ever more extreme measures.

One place where this is likely to express itself is in abortion. Last year Florida passed a 15-week abortion restriction. That’s unlikely to stand as state legislators vie to show the depth of their extremism. Anti-abortionists want a complete ban on abortion in the state. DeSantis has coyly stayed uncommitted. Republican legislators have no such restraints. A total abortion ban looms. And who’s going to stop them? Democrats? Certainly not Naples’ own Sen. Kathleen Passidomo (R-28-Naples), who now presides over the state Senate.

Another area is education. DeSantis reached down into local school boards to endorse his own partisans. In the past year state legislators proposed their own measures and Southwest Florida representatives were in the lead. State Rep. Spencer Roach (R-76-Fort Myers) proposed making school board races overtly partisan. Rep. Bob Rommel (R-81-Naples) wanted to put video cameras in classrooms to monitor the dangerous teachers teaching there. In 2023 not only are we likely to see more such measures introduced, they’re likely to pass and be signed into law.

This kind of extremism is particularly manifest locally in Collier County where MAGA candidates now constitute a majority of the county school board. Jerry Rutherford (District 1) revealed after his election that he wants to impose corporal punishment to enforce more rigid and punitive conformity on students, a MAGA rallying cry.

Despite the outrage from parents who suddenly woke up to what they had elected, Rutherford was officially ensconced in his position as was the rest of the board. The Collier County school system, which was previously ­rated the gold standard for the state, is now likely to crater as dogma, discipline and docility take the place of education, enquiry and enlightenment as priorities for students.

Madness at the margins

One might think that all this success for MAGAism would satisfy its adherents. But exactly the opposite has proven to be true. The level of MAGA anger and rage is absolutely incandescent. Reflecting the fury of their increasingly cornered idol, Trump, MAGAs are lashing out in fury and their first target is the one closest at hand: moderate, traditional Republicans, the so called Republicans in Name Only, or RINOs.

MAGAs blame a less than fervent pro-Trump RINO establishment for the dissipation of the expected red wave. Their hatred is manifested in opposition to electing Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-23-Calif.) as Speaker of the House. In Florida they’ve made a determined push to take over county Republican executive committees.

Will this rage dissipate in 2023? This does not seem likely. In fact, it’s likely to increase.

While DeSantis and MAGAs dominate Florida, in the rest of the country MAGAism is being marginalized as people defend democracy. Trump’s big lie about a stolen 2020 election appears more and more delusional and threadbare every day. Only the truly incredulous can continue to believe it. Election deniers did notably poorly in the 2022 election. More losing conservative candidates conceded defeat than followed the examples of Trump or Arizona gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake in charging fraud. And the conspiracies behind the insurrection were exposed by the January 6th Committee.

MAGAism is gradually being pushed to the fringes of American political life, where it lived before the advent of Trump. For those committed to the creed, however, the sheer frustration, the looming powerlessness, and the futility of their feelings are fueling a bitterness that is truly amazing to behold.

The advance of Republican centrism, the marginalization of extremism and the defeat of MAGAism will be a trend to watch over the coming year, especially as the majority of Americans outside Florida embrace more normal, constitutional politics. But every setback, every defeat, every restraint will fuel MAGA “hatred, prejudice and rage,” as Trump once put it. How that resentment expresses itself, in Florida and elsewhere, will be the other part of this story in 2023.

Storm damage

The dome homes of Cape Romano in 2021. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

The 2023 political agenda of Southwest Florida is already set but its creator was not any politician. Rather, it was a storm named Ian.

Hurricane Ian was a force beyond the capacity of any human to alter or stop. Its sheer devastation and destruction will influence Southwest Florida for many years, probably for a generation at least.

In the coming year all Southwest Florida politicians will have to cope with and contribute to the recovery of the region, regardless of their political beliefs. The need is real and continues to be urgent.

Officials at all levels can assist by getting the money for rebuilding that the region is entitled to receive from the state and the federal government and doing what they can to get more. However, the fanatical anti-federal, anti-government, anti-tax, anti-investment ideology most local politicians espouse will not help. Instead it will lead to more actions like the mass resignation of North Captiva firefighters who were denied a reasonable budget increase and so left the service.

Nor will the governor’s line-item vetoes of local funding requests or the refusal of members of Congress like Donalds to request earmarks help the region. Voters and the local mainstream media have to keep watch and ask: who is helping Southwest Florida recover? Who is helping it get the resources it needs? Who is shirking? Names need to be taken and asses kicked when necessary.

Hurricane Ian should have also completely put to rest any residual argument about the reality of climate change. Between ferocious storms like Ian, the Christmas bomb cyclone and fire, flooding and blizzards, climate change is here. No reasonable, sentient human can muster an argument to deny it. Politicians of all persuasions have to acknowledge it and prepare the coastal population for its effects.

Will Florida and its politicians finally acknowledge this? Their sense of reality needs critical scrutiny in the year ahead.

If they need a reminder they need look no further than the famous dome homes of Cape Romano. Built on solid ground in 1982, with every passing year the Gulf encroached and the waters rose around them. This year Hurricane Ian provided the coup d’grace. The homes are now completely under water.

Unless Floridians wake up, the rest of Florida will follow.

The area of the dome homes in Cape Romano after Hurricane Ian. (Photo: NBC2)

Beyond the abyss

If current trend lines are projected outward, Florida’s political future in 2023 looks like a dark, gaping sinkhole of ignorance, illness and intolerance.

But it doesn’t have to be this way and the story that proved it in 2022 took place half a world away from Florida and the United States.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022—a date that will live in infamy—Russian president Vladimir Putin expected the war to be over in two to three days.

The world didn’t have much greater expectations. Ukraine was outnumbered, had less than half the population of Russia, had far fewer resources and a weaker army and appeared to be a rickety, corrupt ex-Soviet colony presided over by a former comedian.

Instead, through patriotism, determination and astonishing courage, Ukraine, its president Volodomir Zelensky and its people fought for their lives and country—and are winning battles and may actually achieve a clear, just victory.

It’s unlikely to occur soon, however. When wars break out people often expect a quick resolution to what is clearly a terrible and painful conflict. That’s what happened at the outset of the American Civil War and the First World War.

However, if history is any guide, Putin’s war in Ukraine may last through 2023 and beyond—as long as Putin is in power. Both sides have too much at stake to give in.

But the Ukrainian case serves as an example to everyone facing apparent inevitability. Determination and courage do make a difference and can hold or turn back a seemingly unstoppable tide of tyranny despite overwhelming odds. It happened in the American Revolution and in Britain’s defiance of Nazi Germany in World War II.

In Florida and the United States in the coming year those who still put their faith in justice and democracy and enlightenment can look to Ukraine’s example for inspiration.

When it comes to human events it’s always wise to remember that humans can affect those events and alter their course. Nothing is set in stone until after it happens.

The San Francisco radio station KSAN used to have a tagline: “If you don’t like the news, go out and make some of your own!”

So in 2023, to paraphrase KSAN: if you don’t like this future, go out and make one of your own.

Liberty lives in light

© 2023 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

The DeSantis dilemma

Florida’s governor has to turn the other cheek for the next two years

Gov. Ron DeSantis (Illustration: Donkey Hotey/Wikimedia Commons)

Nov. 19, 2022 by David Silverberg

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) of Florida wants everyone to just chill.

“We just finished this election, okay?” an exasperated DeSantis told a crowd during an appearance Wednesday, Nov. 16, in the devastated Lee County community of Matlacha. “People just need to chill out a little bit on some of this stuff, I mean seriously. We just ran an election.”

DeSantis was addressing the agitation caused by former President Donald Trump’s announcement of his 2024 presidential candidacy the night before.

DeSantis would certainly like everyone to chill out; it’s in his political interest. But that’s not likely for a number of reasons.

The terrible twos

Anyone who has ever been in the position of anticipating a future promotion contingent on someone else’s departure or retirement knows the feeling.

Imagine that you’ve been anointed the next chief executive or manager (or editor) of a business. The promotion seems nearly certain but there’s the tortuous interval until it occurs. Anything can upset the apple cart: you might screw things up with a dumb remark; your enemies or competitors are circling to stop you; your boss may change his mind; the whole situation may alter; or the company could go completely belly-up. What’s more, you still have to do your existing job well without any mistakes or foul-ups while carefully maneuvering toward your goal.

For DeSantis, the opportunity to be the Republican nominee—not president, nominee—is two years away and that is an agonizingly long time in politics.

Right now DeSantis is riding high off his undeniably overwhelming election victory. He’s being hailed as the leader of the national Republican Party, he’s being praised and lauded; he’s the golden child of the donor class.

DeSantis is at a peak. The problem is that the peak is two years too soon.

Because of his prominence, DeSantis is now everyone’s target: Democrats, Republicans, members of Congress, partisans of all kinds and just about anyone who doesn’t want to see him become president has him in their sights. He’s the guy to beat.

And there is one person who looms above and beyond all other rivals and impediments and lives a mere 420 miles away from Tallahassee in the same great sun-drenched state.

Donald vs. Ronald

No matter how much the media may dismiss him, Rupert Murdoch may diminish him, Ivanka may avoid him and Merrick Garland may indict him, it’s clear that in Donald Trump’s head he’s a real, serious and viable candidate for president in 2024.

For Trump, DeSantis appeared as a rival for a long time and he began taking potshots early, culminating in his “Ron DeSanctimonious” insult delivered on Nov. 5. Trump has threatened to release damaging information and called him “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations,” [capitalization, of course, his] which to Trump is a killing blow right there.

Given that a leopard can’t change his spots and Trump can’t tame his tongue, the public can expect Trump to keep intensifying his insults, his threats and his attacks as he tries to tear down the man who was once his apprentice but who now looms as his overlord. In fact, his fulminations are likely to intensify the more desperate he becomes. Indeed, Trump may succeed in peeling away some of DeSantis’ luster and turning some of the most fanatical Florida Trumpers against the governor.

No doubt DeSantis would like to answer in kind but he can’t, for several reasons.

One is that DeSantis is not an announced candidate for president and likely won’t be until the summer of 2024, when he formally gets the Republican nomination for president. Florida has a “resign to run law” that would require him to step down.

Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 99.012 of the Florida Statutes states:

(2) No person may qualify as a candidate for more than one public office, whether federal, state, district, county, or municipal, if the terms or any part thereof run concurrently with each other.

(3)(a) No officer may qualify as a candidate for another state, district, county, or municipal public office if the terms or any part thereof run concurrently with each other without resigning from the office he or she presently holds.

(b) The resignation is irrevocable.

Under current law, DeSantis can’t be both governor and presidential candidate, no matter how obvious his intention to seek the presidency.

However, given the long lead time to the presidential race and DeSantis’ absolute and unrestricted rule over a supine Florida legislature, it is not inconceivable that the legislature could change the law to benefit DeSantis before 2024.

Until that happens, though, DeSantis has to remain unannounced and just take the slings and arrows that his enemy hurls at him. No wonder he wants everyone to chill: it’s in his interest to avoid a presidential contest until the moment he steps onto the stage of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee to accept the nomination in the late summer of 2024—and irrevocably resigns as governor of Florida.

Additionally, the presidential race will be a huge distraction from doing his day job for the next two years. As it stands, Trump is going to be throwing brickbats and abuse every hour of every day or at least whenever his attention turns to the governor. No matter how low Trump’s own status goes, DeSantis has to deal with Trump’s unrelenting efforts to seize the media spotlight and block his path to the presidency.

But DeSantis has his comforts. Trump will be tied up in investigations and possible criminal indictments, so he will be distracted by that. If DeSantis is lucky, Trump will self-destruct or implode or—rather unlikely—actually be punished for his transgressions. At the least he’ll be mired in legal proceedings. If all goes well, DeSantis will only have to sit back and watch.

So if DeSantis had his druthers, everyone would forget about the presidency until the most propitious possible moment in 2024.

Why wait?

George Conway, husband of Trump White House advisor Kellyanne Conway and a fierce Twitter critic of the president his wife served, has suggested that DeSantis just sit out the 2024 race and run in 2028. After all, DeSantis would only be 50 years old then, still in the prime of life.

While that makes sense from a purely political calculation, it overlooks several factors.

One is momentum. DeSantis right now is on a roll. He’s the great white hope, the favored alternative, the triumphant warrior and MAGA knight in shining armor. He’s Trumpism with a human face. For him to suddenly declare his disinterest in the coming contest would be to squander and dissipate all that energy and hope—which he might never recover. American history is littered with politicians who waited to seize their opportunity only to see their chances pass by.

Second, at the moment his likely presidential opponent is President Joe Biden who will be 81 years old in 2024. Biden has never achieved high approval ratings and is not likely to do so in the future. He will be further weakened by two years of unremitting investigations and attacks from House Republicans. If Biden is the candidate in 2024, he’s someone DeSantis has a reasonable chance of defeating. If DeSantis waits until 2028, there’s no telling who his opponent might be. Furthermore, given a volatile and increasingly unpredictable world, it’s difficult to anticipate the circumstances of the 2028 election.

Third, DeSantis won reelection with a massive war chest of $200 million. The donors who contributed to that fund weren’t just contributing to a governor of Florida; they were investing in the next president of the United States. Nor were they investing in a 2028 president, they were investing for two years from now. These donors are a powerful force in DeSantis’ base, if one that’s out of public sight. It’s hard to imagine that these donors aren’t encouraging and, when necessary, pressuring DeSantis to run—and those are voices DeSantis can’t ignore.

Lastly, DeSantis himself is not a wait-around kind of guy, no matter how calm he’s trying to be. He’s aggressive and impatient and willing to test boundaries.

For all these reasons, a DeSantis delay appears unlikely. It’s safe to bet that the contest is on for 2024.

The physical threat

Given Trump’s propensity for excusing, encouraging and inciting violence, this is an issue that has to be seriously considered in evaluating a Trump-DeSantis rivalry.

After all, Trump incited an insurrection at the US Capitol and encouraged a mob to try to lynch his Vice President. One of his adherents nearly killed Paul Pelosi with a hammer when he couldn’t break the kneecaps of the Speaker of the House. He’s also the man who said he could get away with shooting someone in the middle of New York’s Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters.

It is not beyond the realm of serious possibility that Trump could attempt to have DeSantis murdered or inspire his more ardent followers to attempt to kill the governor. Physical violence is always a danger in heated political contests but not since the Civil War has the threat been so immediate and real, with a prominent public individual encouraging it.

Clearly, DeSantis could be removed by physical means to Trump’s benefit. Until Trump makes a seemingly sincere, unambiguous and very public statement condemning and abhorring all violence, DeSantis and his entire family will be in danger from Trump and his extremist followers.

Given that he created a state military force answerable only to himself, one presumes that DeSantis’ “Flaetorian” Guard will keep him safe and whole for the next two years. But that safety and security is not to be taken for granted.

Taking the hits

So for the next two years DeSantis may have to be a bit of a punching bag rather than a boxer. He has to take the hits his main rival delivers without hitting back as an announced candidate. For a vigorous and aggressive politician, that’s hard to do. No doubt he’ll land some snide and snarky punches of his own. However, delivering a real knockout blow might offend the Trumper fanatics who will otherwise come to DeSantis’ corner if they have no other choice.  

It also bears remembering that while Trump may be the most prominent DeSantis rival he’s far from the only one. There’s also Gov. Greg Abbott (R) of Texas, with whom DeSantis has dueled using migrant asylum seekers as pawns. In his own state there’s the badly damaged Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), whose presidential ambitions could flare at any time. When Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) isn’t being booed at New York baseball games he’s either flying to Cancun or running for president. And there are others, hovering in the background like a swarm of mosquitos on a warm Florida evening.

It’s more than likely that DeSantis will be very active during the next two years. He won’t be overtly campaigning but expect him to be flying all over the country making speeches, raising money, building connections, endorsing candidates and campaigning without officially campaigning.

But it may not come to a knock-down, drag out battle. One plausible scenario is that Trump will give up his presidential ambitions and endorse DeSantis in return for a promise of a full presidential pardon of all crimes if DeSantis becomes president. However, that would require a rational calculation by Trump, for which he has not shown a proclivity to date.

All this also supposes some pretty big assumptions: that the United States will retain its current constitutional order; that elections will happen on time; that America will stay a democracy; that Florida won’t wash into the sea; and that war, famine, plague and death won’t end the world as we know it.

No one can really know for certain in advance. But it is fairly safe to say that in days to come Donald Trump will be as vile and bitter and vicious as he has always been and that Ronald DeSantis will still be as ambitious and dismissive and arrogant as he has proven so far.

At the very least it will make for a colorful fight card and give Floridians a ringside seat.

Although maybe, for once, DeSantis is right. Maybe it’s better to chill.

Liberty lives in light

© 2022 by David Silverberg

Help defend democracy in Southwest Florida—donate here!

When elephants battle: Trump, DeSantis and the future of the MAGAverse

Two elephants battle. (Photo: Tharindu Somarathna, Wikimedia Commons)

Nov. 12, 2022 by David Silverberg

There’s an old African proverb: “When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.”

In Florida the elephants are braying and stomping. They’re about to clash in mortal combat. When they collide, it’s going to be painful to be underfoot.

One elephant, of course, is Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who resoundingly won his reelection bid as Florida governor and has done nothing to disguise his 2024 presidential ambitions.

The other is former President Donald Trump who may announce his own bid for the presidency on Tuesday, Nov. 15. He began disparaging his one-time protégé as “Ron DeSanctimonious” at a campaign rally on Saturday, Nov. 5.

Actually, the battle won’t be hard at all for Democrats, liberals and progressives who already reject both men. But Florida Republicans, MAGAts and Trumpers, especially in the deeply conservative far-right southwest corner of the state, are going to have to make a very tough decision.

Sen. Rick Scott

One Florida Man appears to have already made his choice. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), had presidential aspirations of his own. However, his less than stellar performance as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee overseeing the election of a Republican Senate seems to have dampened or extinguished that aspiration.

The evidence of this came when Trump endorsed Scott to be Senate Majority Leader in an interview Trump did on his airplane, which was published on Election Day.

Trump is seeking revenge against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) who had the temerity to fix responsibility for the Jan. 6 insurrection on him.

“McConnell has been very bad for our nation,” Trump said. “He has been very bad for the Republican Party. I would be in favor of somebody else — McConnell has done a very bad job.”

Scott, said Trump, is a “likely candidate” for McConnell’s job in the event of a Trump 2024 victory.

“I think Rick Scott is a likely candidate — he hates the guy,” Trump said of Scott’s feelings towards McConnell. “He’s tough — he’s tough, and I think he would probably go for it. He’d have a lot of support.”

Scott’s presidential ambition only glowed in light of the possibility of Trump not seeking the presidency. Trump’s endorsement seems to indicate that Scott has put that ambition in abeyance.

As of this writing Scott had not issued a public statement regarding Trump’s remarks. He was still awaiting the results of the last nail-biting Senate races and faced the Dec. 6 Senate runoff election in Georgia.

But given Scott’s well-documented friction with DeSantis it certainly seems that this Florida Man has made his choice.

Rep. Byron Donalds

Rep. Byron Donalds, President Donald Trump and spouses in Naples, Fla., at a private fundraising event in December 2021. (Photo: Office of Rep. Byron Donalds)

Perhaps no one faces a bigger choice with more consequences than Rep. Byron Donalds (R-19-Fla.).

Donalds was endorsed by Trump in December 2021 for his congressional reelection bid. From the beginning of his congressional campaign he made his loyalty to Trump part of his tagline: “I’m everything the fake news media says doesn’t exist: a Trump supporting, liberty loving, pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment black man.”

At the same time, Donalds has been a supporter of DeSantis and has been sure to appear behind the governor in numerous photos and events. He has praised DeSantis’ handling of the COVID pandemic and his response to Hurricane Ian.

Donalds has ambitions of his own. Having won reelection, he now has his eye on the third slot in the Republican House caucus, head of the conference, and has formally announced his bid for the position. Ironically, the election for the position is scheduled on the same day as Trump’s expected announcement, Tuesday, Nov. 15.

In seeking the seat he is going against the current holder, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-21-NY), who is widely seen as overwhelmingly favored by her fellow Republicans, including the entire congressional leadership.

In this inside-player election, Trump’s endorsement carries considerable weight. Trump has snubbed Donalds before and once again, despite Donalds’ slavish loyalty he did it again in his airplane interview.

“I think she’s fantastic,” Trump said of Stefanik without mentioning Donalds, either forgetting or ignoring him.

To date, Donalds has not issued any statement reacting to Trump’s endorsement.

He did, however, issue a tweet on Saturday, Nov. 12, denying a report that he favored DeSantis over Trump in 2024. That came from Fox News personality Jacqui Heinrich who quoted a “House GOP source” as saying Donalds was saying that to Republican members of Congress in his bid to win the conference chair.

“I’m a big fan of Jacqui Heinrich’s reporting, but her ‘GOP source’ is lying,” Donalds tweeted in reply. “My only focus is Tuesday’s vote to become the next Chair of the GOP Conference.”

Alfie Oakes

Officially, the only public position that Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the grocer and farmer holds is that of Collier County Republican Party committeeman. However, following the midterm election, he is effectively the political boss of Collier County, Florida, since all his endorsed and funded candidates won their elections. They will likely follow his dictates in their policymaking when they take office in January.

Oakes has always been an ardent Trumper. After talking to Trump on a phone call on Dec. 22. 2020, Oakes posted: “I love our president and his family with every bit of my being! I love all that he has given for our country and all that he stands for! May God bless our great President Donald Trump, his family, his team and all of the 75 million patriots that support him!”

Oakes has also been a DeSantis supporter and has praised his performance as governor.

So which way will Oakes go this time? As of this writing, none of Alfie’s social media postings have made this clear. He also did not respond to a phone call from The Paradise Progressive.

Once Alfie makes his preference known, it should have an impact among his followers, both on social media and among his customers.

Whichever way he goes, one thing is certain, though. He can’t have it both ways.

A land with two capitals and two popes

On Tuesday, Nov. 8, the capital of the United States shifted to the great state of Florida—and that’s where it’s likely to stay for the next two years.

Of course, the regular, permanent seat of government and official capital is right where it has always been, in Washington, DC.

But the United States actually has two capitals.

Washington is just one. The second is the campaign capital. It’s wherever the hottest political action is at the moment. In presidential election years it’s wherever a caucus or primary or other event is deciding the next president of the United States.

For the next two years, Florida will be the campaign capital of the United States. It’s where the battles will take place. It’s the launching pad for two plausible presidential campaigns (or two-and-a-half if Rick Scott is included) and it’s where the media spotlight has turned and is likely to stay until the Republican nomination is clinched.

As of right now, the complete Republican dominance of the governorship, the legislature and the judiciary makes Florida a single-party polity under the absolute rule of Gov. Ron DeSantis (something The Paradise Progressive has characterized as “Florumpia”).

But like the supposedly universal Catholic Church in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, Florumpia now has two popes. One is certainly bent on destroying the other for the heresy of being more popular, actually winning his election and failing to pay proper homage. The other pope is not going to accept this lying down.

For true believers in MAGAtism, this presents an enormous dilemma. It is one that is scheduled to culminate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisc., in the summer of 2024.

But in the long time before then, true believers have to choose sides. Given Donald Trump’s unyielding, absolutist, demand for obedience, there is no middle path.

That’s what total fanaticism gets a true believer: total submission to another’s will or excommunication from sunshine into the eternal fires of Hell.

Or put another way: that’s what it feels like to be trampled by an elephant.

Liberty lives in light

© 2022 by David Silverberg

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