Mike Bloomberg’s anti-Trump efforts continue in Florida and nationally

Mike Bloomberg gives his concession speech on Wednesday. (Image: Mike Bloomberg 2020)

March 6, 2020 by David Silverberg

Michael Bloomberg’s presidential campaign may be over but he leaves a legacy in Florida and more specifically, Southwest Florida, that could pay important dividends in the state’s presidential primary on March 17—and in the general election and beyond.

Most immediately, Bloomberg has announced that he is forming a group to support Democratic efforts with offices in six key electoral states that he believes will determine the presidential election, according to The Washington Post.

One of these states is Florida. The others are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina.

As of this writing the group does not have a name pending its trademark application. In addition to supporting Democratic presidential efforts, the new organization could support down-ballot efforts in the US House and Senate. In 2018 Bloomberg gave $20 million to Democratic senatorial candidates and another group he founded, Independence USA, gave $38 million to House candidates.

If the report is correct and the organization does go into operation, it could provide a welcome boost to Florida Democrats.

But Bloomberg’s campaign may have boosted Democratic prospects in the Sunshine State in other ways.

In preparation for the Florida primary, Bloomberg flooded Florida’s airwaves with his campaign ads. In heavily Republican, highly Trumpist Southwest Florida, it was the first time that the region had seen such a blitz of television advertising with a Democratic, anti-Trump message.

Although designed primarily to elect Bloomberg, that advertising also laid the groundwork for future Democratic efforts, the first time a Democratic message was broadcast to broad swaths of people that include disaffected Republicans, Independents and non-party affiliated voters.

Bloomberg also opened 10 offices around Florida and these may now be used by the Biden campaign or Democrats in general. If they’re kept in operation past the primary they could serve a useful function in the general election campaign against Trump.

Commentary: The Bloomberg legacy

In the wake of his failed and very expensive presidential bid, it is not fashionable in the Democratic/liberal/leftist/progressive community to speak any praises of Michael Bloomberg. The comics have mocked him and pundits and former opponents are piling on—and that’s just among Democrats. President Donald Trump in his inimitable style has had to add undisguised gloating and personal insults based on physical appearance.

However, if objective American history is written after the 2020 election, historians are likely to be kinder to Bloomberg than his contemporaries. It’s worth standing back a moment to consider why.

Bloomberg understood the threat of Trump and Trumpism from the beginning—and fought the man and his madness.

Back in 2016, in his speech endorsing Hillary Clinton for president before the Democratic National Convention, Bloomberg warned that Trump was “a dangerous demagogue,” that “the richest thing about Donald Trump is his hypocrisy” and in his most memorable line said: “I’m a New Yorker and New Yorkers know a con when we see one!”

Bloomberg never stopped fighting Trumpism, even in his supposed retirement from politics after his third term as mayor of New York City.

While critics accuse Bloomberg of trying to buy the election, it’s worth remembering the situation when Bloomberg got into the race last November. Things were falling apart and the center could not hold, to use words from William Butler Yeats. Conventional wisdom was that former Vice President Joe Biden could not win the Democratic primary elections and Sen. Elizabeth Warren could not win the general election. The Democratic Party seemed set on a course that would lose the election to Donald Trump.

It was to provide a candidate who could bolster the moderate center and attract anti-Trumpers of all persuasions and most importantly, save democracy and defeat Trump that Bloomberg got into the race.

In his concession speech on Wednesday, March 4, Bloomberg acknowledged that the situation had changed. “I’ve always believed that defeating Donald’s Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it,” he said. “And after yesterday’s vote is clear, that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.”

During his campaign Bloomberg kept the focus on the main threat, Donald Trump. He gave back on Twitter as good as he got from IMPOTUS and he concentrated his fire on the primary target.

Campaigns are necessarily about elevating an individual to godlike status in order to get him or her elected. Bloomberg’s campaign played up his competence and record but never inspired the cultlike adoration of the candidate that Donald Trump is doing in his election efforts. For all his efforts, Bloomberg lacked warmth and charisma, he did not perform well in his debate appearances and he never overcame the perceptions of himself as an interloper and a plutocrat.

In the end, though, Bloomberg’s race was all about defeating Trump and saving the country. Despite his failure as a presidential candidate, he may have contributed considerably to those ends both nationally and in Florida.

If Trump is defeated and America remains a democracy, Bloomberg’s money will have been well spent. Whether he’s liked personally or not, the nation will owe him a debt of gratitude.

Liberty lives in light

Florida’s role and prospects after Super Tuesday

Florida attitudes toward Democratic presidential candidates as of March 3. Since then, Mike Bloomberg has dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden. (Chart: FiveThirtyEight.com)

March 4, 2020 by David Silverberg

While the results of March 3rd’s Super Tuesday presidential primaries give former Vice President Joe Biden an impressive lead in delegates, state victories and endorsements, the race isn’t over yet—and Florida could still play an outsize role.

With former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg announcing his withdrawal from the race this morning and Sen. Elizabeth Warren far behind the front runners in delegates, the remaining contests increasingly look like a two-man sprint between Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

There are plenty of Democratic primaries and caucuses between now and the Florida primary on March 17.

Next Tuesday, March 10, there will be primaries in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington state.

The Northern Mariana territory caucuses on March 14.

On March 17, Florida will not be the only state holding a primary. It will be joined by Arizona (67 delegates) and delegate-rich, Illinois (155) and Ohio (136). Still, with 219 delegates, Florida remains the major prize.

(A candidate needs 1,991 delegates to win on the first ballot. If after that ballot there’s no winner, “superdelegates,” elected officials, will vote on the second ballot and the candidate who reaches 2,375.5 delegates will be the winner. There are half votes in the Democratic process.)

How to read the polls

Polling will get frenetic in the run-up to March 17 and there are likely to be a spate of polls in Florida.

The best website for polling information and data is FiveThirtyEight.com. Created by statistician Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight aggregates and analyzes numerous polls and rigorously drills down through the noise to the essentials. Rather than just breathlessly reporting topline poll results, it takes into account the methodologies and reliability of different pollsters in reaching its conclusions.

As of March 3, the FiveThirtyEight average of polls taken of Florida voters showed Biden and Bloomberg as the front runners, with Biden at 27.7 percent of voters and Bloomberg at 24 percent. Sanders trailed at 16.7 percent and Warren at 7.2 percent.

The likelihood now is that most of Bloomberg’s voters will go to Biden.

(You can see the real time polling results on one of FiveThirtyEight’s interactive charts, with the Florida results here. To see national results, just put “national” in the drop-down menu or click here.)

Southwest Florida and the primary

Unfortunately, there is no publicly-available polling data specifically on the Southwest Florida region. While polling is likely taking place for those local campaigns that can afford it, the data has not been released to date and Southwest Florida is too sparsely populated and too small a market to merit special polling by outside parties.

A suggestion: Florida Gulf Coast University could start a polling program to sample Southwest Florida attitudes on a variety of matters, not just politics. The value of such public attitude surveys was shown by the Conservancy of Southwest Florida’s 2019 survey of climate change attitudes. Public opinion surveys of this kind, conducted regularly by a dedicated, non-partisan institution, would be helpful to area policymakers on a variety of issues.

In the absence of such current survey data, past elections are probably the best indicator of public attitudes. In the case of Southwest Florida’s Democrats, the principle indicator is the result of the 2018 gubernatorial primary when Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine was the primary winner, followed by Gwen Graham and only then the ultimate nominee, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

This would seem to indicate that Southwest Florida Democrats are temperamentally conservative and centrist and that would be good news for Joe Biden in this area.

Ultimately, though, it will not be Southwest Florida that determines which way the state as a whole goes in this year’s Democratic presidential primary. The state is likely to be a Sanders-Biden battleground, with a struggle between traditionally liberal strongholds like Miami-Dade and Orlando against more conservative rural and suburban areas like the Paradise Coast and the Panhandle.

This will be a good preview of the likely lay of the land closer to the general election in November.

One thing will be certain, however: When the general election comes around, Florida will be ground zero in the fight between democracy and dictatorship. Every lover of democracy will have a vital role to play.

Liberty lives in light

Democracy vs. dictatorship: Florida, Super Tuesday and the critical truths that count

The Democratic presidential candidates on the debate stage in South Carolina on Feb. 25. Since then, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out.

March 3, 2020, by David Silverberg

As Floridians, we’re left out of the party that is “Super Tuesday” when Democrats in 14 states and one territory (American Samoa) vote for their preferred presidential candidate.

By tonight, and certainly by tomorrow morning, we will likely know the nominee of the Democratic Party.

There will be anger and disappointment—even disgust—among some Florida Democrats no matter who emerges victorious.

Sadly, we have two weeks until Florida Democrats get to vote. The primary falls on St. Patrick’s Day, so prayer and alcohol are two possible consolations. Still, whether your preferred candidate makes it through to receive your vote or you’re faced with an unpalatable choice on March 17, there are important truths—vital, inalienable truths—to keep in mind. And these overshadow all else.

There is only one real issue in this presidential election: Democracy or dictatorship.

For all the media focus on personalities and debate points and the candidates’ records and positions on any other issues, in the end the 2020 election will decide whether the United States will be a free nation of principles, law and institutions ruled by its people or a plaything subject to the tyranny of a single man. All other considerations of the presidential primary process are subordinate to that one great truth and consequence.

Every Democratic candidate will work to protect, preserve and defend the Constitution.

For all their differences of personality or position, all Democratic candidates can be counted upon to strive to fulfill the presidential oath of office to uphold the Constitution of the United States. Donald J. Trump, who governs as though he’s unaware that there’s a Constitution at all and routinely violates its provisions, was impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors. He’s a tyrant in his heart as well as in his actions and his rule will become more tyrannical if it continues.

All Democratic candidates will support the rule of law and fair and equal justice for all.

This seems so plain and obvious and self-evident but it is not. Donald J. Trump clearly believes he is above all laws and acts accordingly. He only escaped removal through a gravely flawed and deliberately biased trial in the Senate. He has pardoned, excused and commuted punishment for criminals and miscreants of all stripes and natures as long as they’re his friends and sycophants.

Any Democratic candidate will uphold the rule of law and will take seriously the oath to enforce it equally, justly and vigorously—and will submit to the laws on the books like any other citizen.

All Democratic candidates will support the human rights enumerated in the Bill of Rights.

Again, it would have been unthinkable in the history of the United States but we must worry about a president who attacks rights enumerated in the Bill of Rights, chief among them those of the 1st Amendment: freedom of speech, the press, worship and the right to petition government. In 2020, those rights and all others are at risk. Donald J. Trump threatens all of them—and every other human right and amendment in the Constitution.

Far from the United States pursuing a mission abroad to ensure the human rights of all people, in 2020 American citizens must ensure that they preserve those inherent rights in their hearts and heartland. Any and every Democratic candidate stands to preserve and protect them.

Truth matters to all the Democratic candidates.

President Abraham Lincoln reportedly said: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you can’t fool all the people all the time.” But Donald J. Trump turns that on its head. His philosophy might be expressed as: “You can fool all the people all the time and when you can’t you should try—and that includes fooling yourself.”

In politics there are inevitably shadings of truth and attempts to spin events to one’s advantage. But the United States has never before had a president who lies so instinctively, so inherently and so incessantly. He not only lies to the nation and the world but to himself and then believes his own lies. It is safe to say that any Democratic candidate will show a decent respect for the truth and objective reality and will act on the facts accordingly.

Science matters to all the Democratic candidates.

It is extraordinary that any modern human being would think that he could change the course of a hurricane with a Sharpie and then force respected scientists to confirm his delusion. It is extraordinary that any modern person would dismiss any scientific evidence he doesn’t like as a “hoax,” whether that’s climate change or the danger of a plague.

It can safely be said that every Democratic candidate will respect science and scientifically reached conclusions of fact and act on that rather than delusions and lies.

Every Democratic candidate will be concerned with protecting and preserving the natural environment.

Far from dismissing science and actively working to destroy the very planet on which we all live, as Donald J. Trump does, every Democratic candidate will work to preserve the natural environment, to keep it habitable and to pass on livable conditions to future generations. There may be differences of degree or emphasis but there won’t be the wholesale dismissal of environmental conditions and environmental science as a “hoax.”

* * *

These are just a few of the crucial truths that set all the Democratic candidates apart from Donald J. Trump. The most fundamental, supposedly self-evident truths of the American Declaration of Independence, “that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness” are at risk.

It’s safe to say that the election of 2020 is the most critical since the first election of 1788; that it will determine whether America remains a democracy or lapses into dictatorship; that Donald J. Trump is a tyrant at heart and by both instinct and design aims to establish a tyranny over the United States more complete than any King George III ever imagined; and that every democrat—and that includes any person who believes in democracy at all—has an obligation to preserve, protect and defend the democracy and Constitution that has governed this nation and pass it on to future generations.

Against those kinds of stakes, the warts and pimples, the lapses and trivialities of different Democratic Party candidates fade into insignificance.

In Florida we don’t get to participate in Super Tuesday. But on March 17 and again on Nov. 3, we have to vote like our lives depend on it—because they do.

Liberty lives in light

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Rooney reaches 2-year mark in avoiding constituents, town halls

Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) at a May 31, 2017 town hall in Bonita Springs. (Photo by author)

730 days (2 years) since Rep. Rooney has met constituents in an open, public forum

Feb. 22, 2020 by David Silverberg

Today, Feb. 22, marks two years since Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) has faced constituents in person in an open, public forum to hear their concerns and answer their questions.

It was on Feb. 22, 2018 that Rooney held his last two town hall meetings, one on Marco Island, the other in Fort Myers.

Rooney announced his retirement from Congress on Oct. 19 of last year. He’s not running again but he’s still representing the 19th Congressional District in the US House—and doing it in a radically different way than he did prior to last Feb. 22.

However, constituents may never get an in-person explanation of the changes since an actual public appearance by the congressman to answer constituent questions seems unlikely to ever happen again.

Absenteeism

There have been many changes for Rooney since his retirement announcement but one major difference is in his behavior—he’s been absent a lot more from Congress than previously.

Rooney has missed 25.4 percent of the votes in the 116th Congress, making him the sixth most absent member, according to ProPublica, a public reporting initiative. This is in stark contrast to his first term in the 115th Congress, when he only missed 10.1 percent of the votes and was the 33rd most absent member.

These absences include critical votes such as allowing the government to negotiate lower prescription drug prices or opposing Trump’s withdrawal of US troops from Syria, and major federal budget measures.

In this regard, Rooney is behaving very similarly to former representative and fellow Republican Curt Clawson (2014-2016), whose absences also went up strikingly after he announced in May 2016 that he would not be running again, according to the website GovTrack.

Apparently, working in Congress as a lame duck is not that much fun.

Metamorphosis

Rooney is no longer the reliable Trumper he was when first elected.

During his first term in Congress Rooney voted 95 percent of the time with President Donald Trump. He advanced the president’s positions and defended him in the media and was praised for it by Trump during the president’s appearance in Estero on Halloween night 2018.

“He’s brutal,” Trump said of Rooney, to applause in the Hertz Arena. “He gets the job done.”

Between that, Rooney’s conservative base and his self-financed campaign, Rooney won re-election in 2018 by 63 percent.

However, that election brought in a Democratic majority in the House and Rooney successfully accommodated himself to it (a trend well documented by The Paradise Progressive).

Behind the scenes, though, Rooney was apparently changing. He’d always made water purity and Everglades restoration a key plank in his platform and he was pummeled during the 2018 red tide/blue-green algae crisis. However, he consistently denied the reality of man-made climate change; in fact, his denials elicited outrage at his last town hall meeting.

Sept. 11, 2019 was as momentous a day in Rooney’s world as it had been 17 years before for the nation. On that day Politico magazine published an op-ed by Rooney in which acknowledged climate change in a big way.

“I’m a conservative Republican and I believe climate change is real,” Rooney wrote. “It’s time for my fellow Republicans in Congress to stop treating this environmental threat as something abstract and political and recognize that it’s already affecting their constituents in their daily lives.

“If we don’t change our party’s position soon, our voters will punish us,” he warned.

Rooney had apparently learned from the previous year’s red tide and blue-green algae blooms that he ignored environmental issues at his peril. Southwest Florida voters had come to accept the reality of climate change, as documented by the Conservancy of Southwest Florida. If Rooney was going to get re-elected in 2020 he had to go with the flow and as a newly-minted member of the House Science Committee, he couldn’t deny the reality of the data.

“Climate and the environment must be bipartisan concerns, but Republicans are lagging,” he wrote. “Congress must work together to find solutions that will advance the goals of both parties and the best interests of the American people.”

In that spirit of bipartisanship, Rooney got important environmental legislation passed by the entire House of Representatives. It was House Resolution 205, the Protecting and Securing Florida’s Coastline Act of 2019, which made permanent the moratorium on oil and gas drilling off the Florida coast. A key figure in making that happen was House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.), who agreed to Rooney’s request to move the bill.

It passed on Sept. 11—the same day his op-ed was published in Politico.

Heresy

Rooney was clearly positioning himself for his next run for Congress and doing so successfully. He was shoring up his environmental flank and building moderate support with centrist, bipartisan positions.

But at the same time President Donald Trump’s behavior and the impeachment inquiry in the House derailed any such mundane considerations.

After Mick Mulvaney, White House chief of staff, announced that the president had demanded a quid pro quo from Ukraine in return for releasing military aid approved by Congress, Rooney said he was open to considering evidence of presidential wrongdoing, dissenting from the Trumpist propaganda line and party discipline. This was more than his local political base would tolerate and Rooney announced his retirement the next day.

Despite his openness to the evidence and a short period of wavering, Rooney voted against impeachment.

Although he voted for the president and followed party discipline, Rooney remains a pariah at home among Southwest Florida Trumpers and presumably in Congress where he appears to have been cast into the wilderness by the president and his fellow Republicans.

Now he doesn’t seem to be reliably showing up for work.

Lessons

The arc of Rooney’s congressional career shows the perils of supporting a would-be absolutist dictator.

It needs to be remembered, as people look back fondly on Rooney’s environmental record, that during his elected political career he campaigned for, supported, enabled and defended Donald Trump, a man whose highest priority is the blind, unthinking obedience of everyone around him—and the nation at large.

The moment Rooney showed the most fleeting flash of independent thought, the slimmest sliver of an open mind, he was cast into an outer darkness of exile and excommunication. None of his past support, his “brutal” defenses of the president, his call for a political purge of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, his faithful adherence to the president’s wildly changing and unstable doctrines made any difference.

In this, Rooney’s experience is similar to that of fellow Floridian Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-1-Fla.), who was a loud and outspoken Trumper and the man who in Trump’s defense ostentatiously led the Republican charge on the House Intelligence Committee’s secure chamber to protest its impeachment proceedings. Yet when Gaetz voted one time against the president’s wishes, voting to restrict presidential warmaking power against Iran, none of his previous fealty counted or was remembered and he too was cast out.

Rooney and his fellow Republicans, especially Florida’s two senators, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, have enabled and elevated one unworthy and unfit man to dictator-level status. That exaltation brings with it all the abuses and perils of dictatorship: corruption, megalomania, bigotry, rage, oppression, absolutism, fanaticism; what might be called the seven deadly sins of dictatorship. And as with all dictators, the tyrant’s wrath can fall suddenly and unexpectedly on anyone at any time for any reason—or for no reason at all.

Rooney has experienced this at a high governmental level; the American people are beginning to experience it at the grassroots.

It would be nice to discuss all this with Rep. Rooney in person—if he ever again holds a town hall meeting.

Liberty lives in light

State of play: A GOP ‘Contender,’ Fitzenhagen’s finances, a Banyai announcement

State Rep. Dane Eagle interviewed by WGCU. (Photo: Victoria Alvarez/WGCU-FM)

Feb. 21, 2020 by David Silverberg

In what is a virtual Party endorsement, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) on Wednesday, Feb. 19, named State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) one of its national “Contenders.”

The Contenders are Republican congressional candidates singled out for special notice and support. Coming in the heat of sometimes contentious primary races, the program effectively amounts to a way for the national Republican Party to endorse a candidate without overtly intervening in an internal party contest.

Of the eight Republicans running for the seat in Southwest Florida’s 19th Congressional District, only Eagle was named a Contender. He was one of three Florida Republicans named to the program.

The Contender list is part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program, which develops candidates and requires them to work toward specific goals and meet election benchmarks. “Contender candidates have completed stringent program metrics and are on the path to developing a mature and competitive campaign operation,” according to the program’s website.

Thirty-five congressional candidates around the country were named Contenders, which is the second tier of the program. The first tier is called “On the radar,” which means that the candidates have come to the attention of the national party and have the potential to succeed in their races. Party donors can direct contributions to the candidates through the program.

“These hardworking candidates have proven their ability to run strong, competitive campaign operations,” stated Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-23-Calif.), the House minority leader. “We’re going to ensure these contenders are victorious in November by forcing their Democratic opponents to own their party’s radical socialist agenda.”

“I am incredibly thankful to Leader McCarthy for his hard work to make Congress red again and am honored to be on his list of Contenders,” Eagle stated on his website.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) does not have a similar program, although its Frontline program supports Democrats who won seats in 2018. However, No Democrat Left Behind, a coalition of groups supporting Democratic candidates running in heavily Republican districts, endorsed Democratic congressional Cindy Banyai in November.

Fitzenhagen’s finances and what they mean

Heather Fitzenhagen

State Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen (R-78-Fort Myers) raised $31,550 in the last quarter of 2019, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Fitzenhagen was a latecomer to the contest, only filing her candidacy on Dec. 19, 2019.

All the money was raised in 24 donations and there were no loans. All but two of the donors were from Florida. The exceptions came from Texas and Colorado.

Fitzenhagen spent $1,158.75 during the period, all of it with Anedot, Baton Rouge, La., the fundraising consultant also being used by candidates William Figlethaler and Dane Eagle.

This completes The Paradise Progressive’s 4th quarter financial survey of the candidate FEC filings in the 19th Congressional District. Republican candidates Darren Aquino and State Rep. Byron Donalds (R-80-Immokalee) and Independent Antonio Dumornay did not file any donations or expenditures. Democratic filings were covered in the article: Updated: O’Connell, Holden lead in 4th quarter fundraising in 19th Congressional District).

Banyai announces divorce

On Friday, Feb. 14, in a press release and announcement, Democratic congressional candidate Cindy Banyai announced that she and her husband were separating prior to their divorce.

“Like all families, we’ve had our fair share of struggles,” she announced. “Unfortunately, my husband and I are separating as we prepare for our divorce.”

Banyai will still be running: “I fully plan to continue this campaign because the stakes are simply too high to pack it in now,” she stated. “I am sure that my ability to be a mother and be a candidate will be questioned, but that is just the unfortunate reality of being a woman in American politics.”

Banyai is the mother of three children, aged 10, 6 and 2. Her husband, Andrew, is executive director of the Lee County Legal Aid Society, a private, non-profit organization that provides free legal aid to low-income residents.

“I have had a lot of jobs throughout my life. I am a mother, a small business owner, and a candidate for Congress. Like millions of other women in America, I have to manage a delicate balance between my family, my business, as well as my campaign,” she stated. “This will no doubt be a difficult time for myself, my children, and our entire family. While I understand I am a public figure, due to my run for Congress, I hope that my opponents and the media will respect the privacy of myself and my family during this difficult time.”

Liberty lives in light

Follow the money: Dan Severson’s finances and what they mean

Dan Severson in a 2010 Minnesota appearance at which he stated: “Never let anybody say that we are a democracy. We are not a democracy.” (Image: Minnesota Democratic-Farm-Labor Party)

Feb. 17, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of Republican congressional candidate Dan Severson raised $107,531.14 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the fourth-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Of that amount, $101,500 came in the form of a loan from the candidate.

Otherwise, $3,950 came from just four contributors based in California, Minnesota, Alabama and Pennsylvania—none from Florida, other than what Severson contributed himself.

Severson spent $4,362.57. Of this, the largest amount, $2,250, was spent with Fort Myers consultant Diana Watt and her company Watt Political Consulting. However, that was before Watt and her team resigned from his campaign in early January, after State Rep. Byron Donalds (R-80-Immokalee) announced his candidacy.

The split between the candidate and the consultant came despite their shared adoration of President Donald Trump. Watt and her team issued nothing but praise for Severson as they departed.

“We hold Dan Severson and his wife, Cathy Jo, in the highest regard and wish them the very best,” Watt said, according to Florida Politics. Nathan Watt, deputy campaign manager, who also left, said: “Dan Severson has served his country with honor his entire life and is a wonderful example of a man obeying God’s call on his life.”

Otherwise, Severson’s expenditures covered miscellaneous campaign items like website hosting, event tickets, digital advertising and the like.

Analysis: What it means

This is a campaign that’s already on life support.

Other than the candidate’s loan to his own campaign, he has virtually no donors, no local base of support and his hired campaign team has abandoned him. Even after being one of the first of the eight Republican candidates to file in November after Rep. Francis Rooney’s retirement announcement, Severson still has little to no local name recognition and the evangelicals, veterans and Trumpers he was counting on as his base of support have plenty of other more established and well-known choices.

Severson has had a checkered political career. After serving as a naval fighter pilot for 22 years, he was elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives in 2002 and held the position until 2011, rising to the position of Minority Whip.

He ran for Minnesota’s secretary of state in 2014 and lost by 1 percent to Democrat-Farm-Labor (DFL) Party candidate Steve Simon.

In a time before Trump, Severson caused Trump-like outrage by leveling charges of voter suppression and fraud against Democrats, which Democrats countered were baseless lies. In particular, Severson charged that in the 2014 election of DFL Sen. Al Franken, military votes were deliberately not counted.

After a bizarre dueling press conference in the same room at the same time between Severson and his opponent that took place on Oct. 14, 2014, reporter Doug Grow of the Minnesota Post was led to ask whether Severson’s antics were designed as a “desperate bid to tie himself to the military” and inflame Republican voters. In the end, it didn’t work.

Aged 65, Severson came to Southwest Florida to retire but contemplated running in the 19th Congressional District even before Rooney’s October retirement announcement—because he thought Rooney wasn’t conservative enough.

Severson is anti-choice, pro-gun, denies climate change and opposes Rooney’s proposal for a carbon tax. He is the most overtly religious of the Republican candidates, invoking God on Trump’s behalf.

Given the state of his campaign, he might want to save some of those prayers for himself.

Liberty lives in light

The tragedy of Randy Henderson

Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson in his campaign video. The clip of him giving Rep. Ilhan Omar the key to the city is on the television screen behind him. (Image: Randy Henderson for Congress campaign)

Feb. 13, 2020 by David Silverberg

Fort Myers mayor and congressional candidate Randy Henderson is exactly where a politician doesn’t want to be: he can’t appease the fanatics and he has offended the moderates. He’s like a freestyle mountain climber who’s halfway up the rock face with no shelter and the weather moving in. He has no cover and there’s no retreat.

Of course, he has no one else to blame for this predicament.

Will his candidacy continue? And how did he get here?

The video and its origins

Among the eight Republican candidates vying for Rep. Francis Rooney’s congressional seat in the 19th Congressional District, Henderson, at least from the time he declared his candidacy on Nov. 26, 2019, was the most moderate.

His platform rested on his record as a successful three-term mayor of Fort Myers, a record of economic achievement, downtown renovation, pragmatic problem solving and improving the quality of life. While his competitors brayed about their loyalty to Donald Trump’s policies and pronouncements, Henderson kept largely silent on that front and pledged to work for the welfare of all of Southwest Florida’s people.

But apparently Henderson decided that wasn’t working much for him. For the ever-Trumpers among Republican primary voters, Henderson had some serious vulnerabilities.

While the Republican field featured a candidate whose arrest for driving while intoxicated was caught on a police dashcam (Dane Eagle), a candidate who was arrested for selling and possessing illegal drugs (Byron Donalds) and one who had done hard prison time (Antonio Dumornay, now an Independent), Henderson’s vastly more serious sins in their eyes consisted of welcoming President Bill Clinton to the city of Fort Myers when he came to campaign on his wife’s behalf on Oct. 11, 2016 and in 2017 greeting Ilhan Omar, then a Democratic state legislator from Minnesota, to Fort Myers and giving her the key to the city.

So Henderson decided to get ahead of the right-wing wave and one week ago, on Thursday, Feb. 6, he released a 1-minute, 13-second campaign campaign video called “Done Playing Nice.”

The purpose of the video was to position Henderson as a mini-Trump as mean and tough as his competitors and expiate his prior sins.

The video opens with a video clip of Henderson handing Omar the key to the city. Henderson swings away from the TV monitor.

“Yep, that’s me giving Ilhan Omar the key to the city,” he says, sitting at a desk. “I didn’t know her politics then – or that she is an anti-Semitic socialist. Watching that now… makes me sick.”

He explains: “I’ve had to show respect to all kinds of people as Mayor… I even had to welcome Bill Clinton to town… but I’m done playing nice with people who won’t show respect to President Trump.”

Henderson gets in a small plane and takes off, while saying that by governing according to conservative principles and the Trumpist formula, he’s built Fort Myers’ economy.

Then, apparently the plane has landed and Henderson appears in front of the US Capitol. “My name is Randy Henderson. I’m running for Congress because President Trump doesn’t need more radicals in Congress pushing partisan impeachment… he needs allies who know how to grow the economy. And if you send me Congress, I’ll represent your values, be an ally to President Trump… and I’ll get that key back.”

Then, as the image fades out, text appears in the lower left corner of the screen saying “Sorry, Ilhan.”

But it’s not clear if Henderson is apologizing to Omar for taking back the key—or apologizing to her for having to make this video to get himself elected.

Fallout

Reaction to the video has been swift and vocally negative.

Gabriele Spuckes, chair of the Lee County Democratic Party, called for Henderson’s resignation.

“If the Mayor can’t run a campaign with maturity and professionalism he should resign as Mayor of Fort Myers to avoid further embarrassing himself and the people of Fort Myers,” she stated.

“It is disappointing that at a time in our nation’s history when civility is rare and bi-partisanship almost nonexistent, that Mayor Randy Henderson of Fort Myers would engage in inappropriate, petty and childish rhetoric that is frankly insulting to the residents of this city, all of whom are his constituents, as well as the voters in the rest of the 19th district who he would presumably want to be his constituents,” she continued.

She called on Henderson to apologize to all the residents of the 19th Congressional District and abandon “this low road he has embarked on” and instead address Lee County residents’ needs and desires.

Members of the mayor’s diversity committee were reportedly considering resigning as a result of the video, including Peter Ndiang’ui, its chairman and the person who, as a member of the African Network of Southwest Florida, first invited Ilhan to Fort Myers.

At least one of Henderson’s Republican competitors wasn’t buying his act. State Rep. Byron Donalds (R-80-Immokalee) told Fox4 News: “In political campaigns, you’re going to see a lot of people try to rebrand themselves. Calling themselves conservative. Mayor Henderson or anyone else who’s running, they’re going to have to stand not just on what they’re saying in this campaign, but what they’ve done over their time in politics,” he said.

Henderson hit back at his critics in a Facebook posting on Monday, Feb. 10: “You may have seen me in the news recently,” he wrote. “I spoke up against socialism and anti-Semitism, and the ‘politically correct liberal mob’ went nuts. It’s the Democrat playbook. They can’t beat us on the substance, so they attack your character. Ilhan Omar’s actions were censured in the House of Representatives!”

The next day he did another post, trying to turn the controversy to his fundraising advantage: “Democrats are coming after us for telling the truth! We will never stop fighting against the socialism and anti-Semitism that is being peddled by Ilhan Omar and her supporters. Donate here to help us fight back.”

Commentary: Joining the stampede

Aside from its pettiness and meanness, what is so stunning about the “Done Playing Nice” video is that it’s so out of character for Henderson.

As a mayor, Henderson governed moderately and inclusively. He also governed relatively wisely and had a record of achievement of which he was rightly proud. He enjoyed considerable goodwill across the political, racial and ethnic spectrum. Fort Myers thrived.

When he declared his candidacy for Rooney’s seat Henderson seemed one of the only sane Republicans anywhere in the country, someone immune from Trumpist madness, which was leading his followers over a cliff, as Rep. Rooney once put it.

But in a hyper-partisan local race for Congress full of loud, fanatical mini-Trumps appealing to the extreme right wing of the electorate, Henderson’s sanity and reasonableness clearly didn’t sit well.

This was reflected in his fundraising. Although he was one of the first Republicans to declare his congressional candidacy, Henderson raised an anemic $68,391.74 in 2019, the sixth lowest total of all District 19 candidates, according to the Federal Election Commission.

So Henderson has made the calculation that he’ll use the Trump playbook and portray himself as a blindly loyal, fanatical, obedient Trumpist fighting against the “politically correct liberal mob.” After all, it’s not thinking people who appreciate good governance who determine the outcomes of Republican congressional primaries.

But this is not likely to work with anyone. The true Trumpers know Henderson’s not really one of them. His Republican competitors have far more genuine Trumpist credentials. He has now lost whatever moderate support and goodwill he once enjoyed. He has probably lost many of the supporters of all parties who formed the base he built over three terms in Fort Myers.

Henderson’s “Done Playing Nice” video doesn’t establish him as a tough, aggressive mini-Trump; on the contrary, it reveals him as a moral coward, abandoning decency to join the stampeding Trumpist herd.

In this, Henderson is a tragic political figure, a man who knew better but sold his soul to something dark and evil. It also reveals the insidiousness of Donald Trump’s corrosive impact on national politics, his meanness, pettiness and paranoia leaching down as far as the remote reaches of Southwest Florida.

Randy Henderson may be done playing nice—but the voters of Southwest Florida are also done playing nice with him.

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Follow the money: Ford O’Connell’s finances and what they mean

Ford O’Connell appearing on the Fox Business Network.

Feb. 12, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of Republican congressional candidate Ford O’Connell raised $310,205 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the third-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Of that amount, $200,000 came in a loan to the campaign made by the candidate.

The other $110,205 was made in 139 separate donations. However, of these donations, 60 or 43 percent, were made through Winred, a conservative, online, pass-through political action committee (PAC) based in Arlington, Va.

Winred describes itself on its website as “a conduit PAC coupled with proven fundraising technology. The advanced lead optimization and donation platform increases engagement and maximizes your fundraising by leveraging a conservative ecosystem in the millions.” Put another way, users from any location can donate to any Republican candidate online.

As a result, $74,875 of O’Connell’s contributions came from anonymous donors outside the district. Of his total contributions, $44,100 came from Florida and of that, only $25,600 from 16 donors came from within the 19th Congressional District and all of those were from Naples.

As of Jan. 31, O’Connell had spent $3,173.03 on his campaign, all of it with Winred.

Analysis: What it means

O’Connell came late to this party, only filing his candidacy with the FEC on Dec. 6. He hasn’t had much time to fundraise or organize his campaign.

However, in early January he hired Sean Kempton as deputy campaign manager. Kempton, a graduate of Florida Gulf Coast University, served on the 2018 campaign of Gov. Ron Desantis (R) and later in his administration. One presumes that this means O’Connell will be trying to build a grassroots field operation.

As demonstrated by his fundraising, O’Connell doesn’t appear to have a network of local donors, so he is using online means to raise funds nationally.

O’Connell told the political website Ballotpedia that his three goals in office are: fighting for President Trump; protecting the quality of life in Southwest Florida (as he put it: “Southwest Florida first!”); and “draining the swamp.”

Accordingly, O’Connell’s platform is one of straight Trumpism and doesn’t deviate or vary from the Trumpist line. He deprecates Democrats, wants to protect national sovereignty from illegal immigrants, and boasts of being a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association.

The only way that O’Connell stands out from the other Trumper candidates in the 19th Congressional District to date is in the vehemence and volume of his Trumpism rather than its substance. O’Connell appears to be channeling his idol and adopting his campaign approach of personalizing his attacks, (“I have a feeling that some people might actually want to go back to Tallahassee rather than stay in this, what is going to be an epic dog fight,”—a shot at Dane Eagle), demonizing the opposition (“Democrats are the party of illegal immigration…”), and playing the apocalyptic paranoid card (“President Trump is our last hope for conservative governance for the foreseeable future in this country.”).

O’Connell’s attacks on immigration are ironic in light of his grandfather Henry Salvatori’s immigration from Italy to the United States, where he built a successful petroleum company, as well as the Irish origins of O’Connell’s name.

O’Connell’s only reference to a local issue is on his website where he pledges, “I will advocate and fight for the highest level of federal funding for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP).” Otherwise, his issues are all national in scope.

Given that all his local donors were based in Naples, it appears that O’Connell doesn’t have any roots or organization in Fort Myers, Cape Coral or anywhere in Lee County.

Given the lateness of his entry, his lack of a ground game and his background in television punditry, it is most likely that O’Connell will hold his main fire until later in the season and then attempt a broadcast blitz, trying to overwhelm his opponents with television advertising. However, since broadcast purchasing can eat up a lot of money very fast he will have to do much better fundraising if he’s to have the resources to do that.

Substantively and from a policymaking stand point there’s nothing to distinguish O’Connell from the other Trumpers in the race. He has little local name recognition or roots in the community. He does have $200,000 worth of skin in the game—and it will be interesting to see what that can buy him in the 19th Congressional District.

Coming: Randy Henderson and the video that went viral

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Trump budget harms SWFL seniors, Medicare, Social Security; local politicos react–or not

Congressional staffers unpack fiscal year 2021 budget documents.

Feb. 11, 2020 by David Silverberg

Southwest Florida seniors are likely to suffer if President Donald Trump’s fiscal year 2021 budget request is enacted as proposed.

The president’s $4.8 trillion budget, officially unveiled yesterday, Feb. 10, would cut Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI).

Medicare spending would be reduced by 7 percent or $756 billion between 2021 and 2030. Doctors, hospitals and hospices would receive lower reimbursement rates for the services they provide.

Two Social Security programs, SSDI and Supplemental Security Income (SSI), which pays monthly benefits to people with limited income and resources who are disabled, blind, or age 65 or older, would lose $75 billion over the same period, with $10 billion in cuts coming from retroactive benefits a person can receive after he or she is considered disabled.

Other programs important to seniors like Meals on Wheels, the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, the Senior Community Service Employment Program and legal services for seniors would be cut or eliminated.

These cuts and reductions would fall heavily in Lee and Collier counties, which have double the national percentage of people 65 or older.

According to 2018 Census statistics, 28.6 percent of Lee County’s 618,754 people are 65 or older (which works out to 174,488 people). Of Collier County’s 321,521 people, 32.2 percent are 65 or older (103,530 people). Both counties’ populations have been steadily increasing.

According to DataUSA, a private consortium that repackages government data, 14.7 percent of Lee County’s population is on Medicaid and 20.8 percent is on Medicare. In Collier County that is 12 percent on Medicaid, 24.9 percent on Medicare.

These are significant populations that could be significantly, adversely affected by Trump’s proposed budget cuts.

Southwest Florida reactions

This will be Trump’s last budget proposal before the 2020 election, making it particularly significant and politically impactful.

However, reaction in Southwest Florida from both candidates and sitting representatives was surprisingly mixed.

The only congressional candidate in the 19th Congressional District to immediately comment was Democrat Cindy Banyai.

“The thing that is so disappointing about the #TrumpBudget and every similar austere fiscally conservative move, is that SS, Medicare are macroeconomic drivers that other countries wish they had. Funding only the ‘deserving’ is crippling,” she tweeted as soon as the budget was released.

Among Republican candidates for the 19th District seat only State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) issued any sort of comment at all and his was a generic partisan tweet urging people to vote Republican if they believe in strong borders, lower taxes, low oil prices, law enforcement and the military. He made no mention of the budget or the cuts to social safety net programs.

Sitting SWFL Republican members of Congress were active on Twitter as the budget was released—but each addressed topics as far from the budget and constituent impacts as possible.

Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) was concerned with events in El Salvador: “Reports of armed police and soldiers entering #ElSalvador’s National Assembly are deeply concerning. I urge all sides to come together in a peaceful and constructive manner to address the needs of the Salvadoran people,” he tweeted at the time.

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-25-Fla.) thanked President Trump for funding Everglades restoration. “As my colleagues from the Everglades Caucus & I stated in our recent letter to POTUS, the #Everglades is a national treasure & fundamental to Florida’s economy. I thank @POTUS for including the requested $250 million in his proposed budget to Congress.”

Rep. Greg Steube (R-17-Fla.) was more concerned with the costs of investigating President Trump’s high crimes and misdemeanors: “Now that @realDonaldTrump has been acquitted, I am proud to announce I am co-sponsoring the SHAM Act. It is time we audit that entire bogus process to figure out exactly how much taxpayer money was wasted.” (The Statement of Harm to the American Majority Act or SHAM Act, House Resolution 5769, would initiate an audit of the costs of the presidential impeachment inquiry.)

On a national level, House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) issued a statement saying: “President Trump’s latest budget continues his relentless attacks on the health and economic security of hard-working Americans. It is a complete reversal of the promises he made in the campaign and a contradiction of the statements he made at the State of the Union.”

When it came to social safety net programs affecting seniors, Pelosi stated: “President Trump has broken his promises to seniors and families by slashing half a trillion dollars from Medicare, taking $900 billion from the lifeline of Medicaid, and cutting Social Security Disability Insurance.”

She concluded: “The federal budget is supposed to be a statement of national values. Once again, the President is showing just how little he values the good health, financial security and well-being of hard-working American families. The President’s budget is anti-growth, does not create good-paying jobs and increases the national debt.”

The budget proposal will now be considered by the House of Representatives, where it is likely to be substantially altered.

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Follow the money: Dane Eagle’s finances and what they mean

Dane Eagle speaks at a Trump rally. (Photo: Dane Eagle for Congress campaign)

Feb. 10, 2020 by David Silverberg

The campaign of State Rep. Dane Eagle (R-77-Cape Coral) raised $423,095 in the fourth quarter of 2019, the second-highest amount of funds of all candidates in the 19th Congressional District, according to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

What makes Eagle’s fundraising remarkable is that it consisted entirely of donations and no loans.

There were 237 donations to Eagle’s campaign, of which 11 came from committees and political action committees (PACs) rather than individuals. These PACs included the Florida Transportation Builders Association PAC, the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers PAC, Giving US Security PAC and the Universal Health Services Employee Good Government Fund.

One prominent Southwest Floridian who contributed was Sam Galloway Jr., the car dealer, who kicked in $5,000.

Also contributing was the Jeff Miller for Congress campaign. Miller is a former Republican representative for Florida’s 1st Congressional District in the Panhandle, a seat currently held by fellow Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. While Gaetz has been an outspoken and aggressive supporter of President Donald Trump, he committed the heresy of voting to limit the president’s power to wage war on Iran.

Eagle’s donors were also from all over the United States, including Washington, DC, Pennsylvania and Alabama. While the vast majority were from Florida, they came from all over the state.

In this period Eagle’s campaign committee spent $47,758.17.

Much of this was spent on consultants. Like his fellow Republican competitor William Figlesthaler, Eagle is using Anedot, Baton Rouge, La., as his fundraising consultant. In addition he’s drawing on the expertise of Picotte and Porter, LLC, Jacksonville, Fla., for additional fundraising advice and assistance and TM Strategic Consulting, based in Fort Myers, which provided general political advice and branding expertise. The company is run by Terry Miller, a conservative political strategist.

Most expenses were for routine campaign requirements like videography, event logistics, software, advertising and the like.

Analysis: What it means

Eagle has been in state office since winning election in 2012 and has risen, at the remarkably young age of 36, to be acting House majority leader in the Florida legislature. This gives him a wide network of contacts and national connections, which he’s using for his campaign.

Based on the data in his FEC report, he’s running a professional, well-funded campaign that draws on established professional political expertise. His donor base is diverse and extensive, which demonstrates real grassroots support, most of it local.

Ideologically, Eagle is an extreme Trumper and has staked his claim on the far right edge of the Trump universe, which should serve him well with core Republican primary voters. He’s an active user of social media and his media to date fully reflects Trump’s rage and paranoia against Democrats and anyone who dares to disagree with the leader. He also shares Trump’s nasty and vicious absolutism. There’s no reason to believe that these are not Eagle’s genuine sentiments and outlook as well.

Uniquely, Eagle showed interest in a political career at an early age and served as deputy chief of staff to then-Gov. Charlie Crist (R) at the age of 24. He has shown that he can master legislation and legislative maneuvering. Unlike other candidates who have jumped into this race after—or during—other, non-political careers, Eagle is all politics, all the time.

Given his young age and early prominence, Eagle will likely be on the political scene for a long time unless he suddenly flames out—often an occupational hazard for young prodigies. Of the Republican candidates for Congress in the 19th District, he is at the moment the most formidable one.

Next: Ford O’Connell

Mike Bloomberg gives his concession speech on Wednesday. (Image: Mike Bloomberg 2020)

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Florida attitudes toward Democratic presidential candidates as of March 3. Since then, Mike Bloomberg has dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden. (Chart: FiveThirtyEight.com)

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The Democratic presidential candidates on the debate stage in South Carolina on Feb. 25. Since then, Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out.

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Available now:

The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz

Rep. Francis Rooney (R-19-Fla.) at a May 31, 2017 town hall in Bonita Springs. (Photo by author)

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State Rep. Dane Eagle interviewed by WGCU. (Photo: Victoria Alvarez/WGCU-FM)

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Dan Severson in a 2010 Minnesota appearance at which he stated: “Never let anybody say that we are a democracy. We are not a democracy.” (Image: Minnesota Democratic-Farm-Labor Party)

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Fort Myers Mayor Randy Henderson in his campaign video. The clip of him giving Rep. Ilhan Omar the key to the city is on the television screen behind him. (Image: Randy Henderson for Congress campaign)

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Ford O’Connell appearing on the Fox Business Network.

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Congressional staffers unpack fiscal year 2021 budget documents.

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Dane Eagle speaks at a Trump rally. (Photo: Dane Eagle for Congress campaign)

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